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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 4th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2016-12-05 06:18:04

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons – 6:00 PM ET

Orlando Magic Detroit Pistons
orlandonba Vegas Total 193.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 193.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 93.3 Team Total 100.3
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- -2.3
Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Ish Smith Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 21 14 1 5 18 2016-17 20 15 12 15 14

Orlando Magic

Welcome to a nice little slate for this Sunday. The Magic travel to Detroit to play a hot Pistons team that has been crushing it lately. The Magic have the lowest implied team total on the slate, and we should expect most of their players to have their ceilings capped. Since it is a short slate, we should keep our focus narrow and make sure to get all the best plays for cash. The Magic will not be owned in tournaments, and outside of Nikola Vucevic, I don’t really have any interest in this team. Vucevic is still struggling to get 30 minutes but has a double-double in six straight games. The game against the Sixers on Friday was the first time he’d taken fewer than 10 shots in about a month, but he had five assists. He’s second on the team behind D.J. Augustin in true usage with 24.4%, but it’s less than 1% behind, and I’d consider him their best offensive weapon. Vucevic is your best option, and hopefully he gets 30 minutes tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
D.J. Augustin $3,900 $4,100 $7,400 0.72 19.4 4.6 13.9 2.2 25.1% -3.9% 21
Evan Fournier $5,900 $5,700 $9,900 0.77 34.2 0.9 26.2 8.9 24.1% 1.7% 14
Aaron Gordon $4,100 $4,300 $8,600 0.73 26.8 -1.0 19.6 -4.8 19.9% 2.2% 1
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $5,900 $9,900 0.87 30.2 1.8 26.2 2.1 20.6% -0.4% 5
Bismack Biyombo $4,300 $4,500 $7,800 0.76 23.8 4.4 18.0 -5.2 12.6% -4.1% 18
Nikola Vucevic $7,100 $6,300 $10,600 1.12 27.8 3.6 31.3 13.5 24.4% 1.2% 18

Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic

Secondary Plays – N/A

Detroit Pistons

Reggie Jackson (probable)

The Pistons are on a road three-game winning streak and return home after scoring 121 points in consecutive games. This is a slow-paced game, and we should not expect the Pistons to score over 110 again. Slow-paced games favor Andre Drummond, and we saw what Joel Embiid (39.1 FDFP) and Jahlil Okafor (21.8 FDFP) did to the Magic on Friday. Expect that to continue tonight with Drummond. His ceiling is capped because he has not scored over 20 actual points this season, but he does have a double-double in back-to-back games collecting 14 and 17 rebounds. There should be plenty of bricks in this one, and a 20/20 game is not out of question. Drummond is rested and should absolutely dominate the Magic. Reggie Jackson will make his debut today and play about 16-20 minutes. This makes Ish Smith a total non-factor.

Tobias Harris has really been on a hot streak, averaging 34.32 FDFP over his last four games, playing 32 or more minutes in each of those contests. The Pistons have a really balanced usage distribution, and Tobias is third on the team with a true usage rate of 22%. He’s multi-position eligibile on DraftKings and a solid PF optoin on FD. The low game total does concern me and on a four-game slate, and I want some exposure to Griffin, Cousins, or Davis at PF. Marcus Morris is still cheap and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been white hot over the past couple weeks, scoring 30 or more FDFP in six of his last seven starts. KCP looks like the best option since SG is not exactly that deep and he’s not exactly that expensive.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ish Smith $5,700 $5,400 $8,100 0.81 29.6 -1.9 23.8 -3.0 23.4% -3.0% 20
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,700 $5,600 $8,300 0.69 33.2 -0.6 22.9 2.9 20.1% 1.5% 15
Marcus Morris $4,800 $5,000 $8,100 0.73 31.5 -3.6 22.9 -4.5 20.6% 2.7% 12
Tobias Harris $5,800 $6,100 $9,300 0.78 32.8 1.0 25.6 1.7 22.0% 0.3% 15
Andre Drummond $7,900 $7,400 $12,600 1.20 30.1 -0.6 36.2 2.1 22.8% -4.6% 14
Jon Leuer $4,600 $4,600 $7,100 0.80 26.6 0.9 21.4 -1.9 17.2% -1.3% 15

Elite Plays – Andre Drummond, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris

New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:00 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans Oklahoma City Thunder
neworleansnba Vegas Total 213.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 213.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 109.3
Pace +/- 2.5 Pace +/- 1.7
Proj. Starter Tim Frazier Jrue Holiday Solomon Hill Anthony Davis Omer Asik Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 28 4 20 10 3 2016-17 19 21 25 24 9

New Orleans Pelicans

Dante Cunningham (out)
Tyreke Evans (out)

The Pelicans have started Jrue Holiday over the past two games but have not played him over 30 minutes. He might get his shot tonight in an uptempo, high-scoring game. I don’t mind Holiday and think he has solid upside, but I’d rather get my exposure to this game on the cheap so I can fit in Russell Westbrook. That means Tim Frazier, don’t let me down, please! Frazier has seen 30 minutes in eight straight games and has underperformed salary-based expectations in five straight games. Due to the slump, it’ll be tough to recommend Frazier for cash games, but he’s a solid GPP option who can turn it around today. If you’re not paying up for both PG position on FD with Paul or Teague, Frazier looks like the best salary saver left on the slate at the position. He’s slightly more expensive on DraftKings but can be used at UTIL or G.

Anthony Davis let a lot of people down against the Clippers, but we know the Clippers are a tough defensive team and have the length to bother AD. The Pelicans play him a lot at C when Terrence Jones comes in, and that moves him onto Steven Adams. I’d prefer they keep him at PF and attack Sabonis, but I’m not the coach. Dollar-for-dollar, I’d rather pay the extra $600 on DraftKings and $700 on FanDuel and grab Westbrook in cash games. For tournaments, we can expect Westbrook to be mega chalk and Davis to come in considerably lower than him. He’s a viable pivot, and you know the risk involved when dealing with Glass. Terrence Jones’s minutes have been trending in the right direction over the past couple games, but since they are still erratic and under 30, we can only use him in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Tim Frazier $4,900 $5,300 $8,300 0.87 31.0 1.2 26.9 -8.2 22.8% -1.3% 28
Jrue Holiday $7,100 $6,400 $10,000 1.09 27.1 0.3 29.4 -4.7 31.0% -2.6% 4
Solomon Hill $3,700 $3,400 $7,700 0.58 26.0 2.9 15.0 1.8 11.0% -2.2% 20
Anthony Davis $11,900 $11,200 $15,900 1.45 37.3 3.2 54.1 6.5 31.5% -1.3% 10
Omer Asik $3,600 $3,000 $6,800 0.67 17.9 -0.6 12.1 -0.5 8.6% -1.8% 3
Terrence Jones $4,800 $4,600 $7,500 0.93 24.1 -1.8 22.5 -4.9 19.4% -1.0% 10

Elite Plays – Tim Frazier (GPP), Anthony Davis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (GPP), Terrence Jones (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder

Cameron Payne (out)

Welcome to Russell Westbrook mega chalk day. On a four-game slate, it makes really no sense to fade Beastbrook. He’s averaging 63.2 FDFP over his last eight games and is even better over on DraftKings, averaging 71.21 DKFP. If you want to fade him in cash games, you’re asking to fall behind the field by a minimum of 55 points. I can understand the game theory aspect of it in tournaments, and Victor Oladipo would be your cheap exposure at the guard position. Simply put, I don’t see any point in getting cute for cash games on a four-game slate. Victor Oladipo is a solid option in all formats and is a lock for 30+ minutes. He’s not as cheap as we’d like but makes sense in a game with the highest implied team total.

Enes Kanter is back to being more expensive than Steven Adams on FanDuel but is still cheaper than him on DraftKings. The minutes are way top insecure for Kanter, and the production has been too erratic for Adams. I’m not wasting a center spot on FanDuel on one of these guys, but they make sense for tournaments on DraftKings. I’d go with the starter in Adams if forced to choose since he is at a season-low $4.9k.

Andre Roberson has carved out a role for him self, and while he’s not going to blow up, he’s a solid SF salary saver. You can use him as a SF2 on FD or a multi-position player on DK. In his last 12 games, Roberson has only let us down in three of them. That’s what we’re looking for when we need a cheap cash game play. Anthony Morrow has seen his minutes really been on the rise and is a viable tournament option tonight against his former team. He’s the stone cold minimum on DraftKings and FanDuel and fits in pretty nicely since SG is pretty shallow today.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Russell Westbrook $12,600 $12,800 $16,300 1.64 35.4 2.9 58.2 5.4 44.9% -3.0% 19
Victor Oladipo $6,400 $6,700 $10,400 0.79 34.6 0.6 27.2 5.5 21.1% -1.5% 21
Andre Roberson $4,000 $4,400 $7,000 0.60 30.0 2.2 18.0 -3.6 10.7% -1.9% 25
Domantas Sabonis $3,600 $3,200 $7,800 0.61 21.8 1.0 13.4 -1.2 14.9% -2.2% 24
Steven Adams $4,700 $4,900 $8,700 0.76 31.5 -1.0 23.9 -0.4 14.6% 0.8% 9
Enes Kanter $4,900 $4,500 $9,300 1.15 19.2 2.6 22.0 4.0 24.7% 0.5% 24

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson (cash)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Morrow (GPP)

Sacramento Kings at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Sacramento Kings New York Knicks
sacramentonba Vegas Total 211.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 211.0
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 104.3 Team Total 106.8
Pace +/- -0.3 Pace +/- -1.9
Proj. Starter Darren Collison Arron Afflalo Rudy Gay DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 12 29 11 8 14 2016-17 13 24 14 28 4

Sacramento Kings

N/A

DeMarcus Cousins did not crush the Boston Celtics like we hoped, but he still had a fine performance, scoring over 50 fantasy points. He’s still expensive and is still in a nice spot again tonight. We saw what Karl-Anthony Towns was able to do the Knicks last week and can only hope that Cousins can repeat that. I love the fact that Cousins has hit a three-pointer in 10 straight games. In what is projected to be the closest game of the day and the fourth-highest team total, it makes sense to get some Cousins exposure.

Rudy Gay has been underperforming in six of his last eight games and is only a tournament option here tonight. Darren Collison continues to see the starts and the minutes but has also underperformed since his return from suspension. Matt Barnes went OFF against the Celtics, scoring a season-high 42.7 FDFP in 30 minutes. He’s still playing off the bench and is only a tournament option. Ty Lawson is actually the only cash game option but is better off on DraftKings. Lawson is averaging 21.46 DKFP but has not played over 24 minutes in his last five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Darren Collison $5,700 $5,100 $8,500 0.79 30.0 -1.3 23.6 -2.6 22.2% -3.6% 12
Arron Afflalo $3,500 $3,000 $7,900 0.52 26.8 -7.6 13.9 -4.4 14.0% -0.5% 29
Rudy Gay $7,000 $6,600 $11,000 0.98 34.7 0.9 33.9 -1.3 25.2% -1.7% 11
DeMarcus Cousins $10,900 $10,900 $14,800 1.41 34.0 1.4 47.8 11.9 36.0% 5.1% 8
Kosta Koufos $3,500 $3,000 $7,200 0.72 20.1 2.9 14.4 -2.1 13.9% -2.7% 14
Matt Barnes $4,200 $4,300 $7,800 0.66 25.7 0.7 17.0 -0.8 17.3% -1.0% 11

Elite Plays – DeMarus Cousins, Ty Lawson (DK Cash)

Secondary Plays – Rudy Gay (GPP), Matt Barnes (GPP), Darren Collison (GPP)

New York Knicks

Courtney Lee (questionable)
Joakim Noah (questionable)

Courtney Lee and Joakim Noah both missed the Knicks previous game and we should not expect Noah to play tonight. Lee did participate in practice on Saturday and is a game-time decision for tonight. Even if he plays, avoid Lee. Kristaps Porzingis continues to see the minutes and actually played a season-high 40:08 against the Timberwolves on Friday. Even though he let a lot of people down on Friday, if he keeps logging these heavy minutes, he’s an elite cash game option with tangible tournament upside. Carmelo Anthony finally broke out of his slump, but he’s been really erratic over the past 10 games, during which time he’s averaged 36.54 FDFP but still had multiple games under 30 FPs.

Derrick Rose has put up one clunker in his last six games and also has his minutes pretty secure. DRose has some tournament upside left at his salary on both major sites, plays on the team with third-highest team total and is second on the team with a true usage rate of 27.9%. Kyle O’Quinn finally had the game we were all waiting for and played over 30 minutes for the first time all season. If we can feel secure he will see 30 minutes again tonight, he should be a fine cash game play. I’d expect there to be considerable chase here after his big game and cheap salary. It’s not a bad option, but keep your expectations in check because he’s only scored 20 fantasy points one other time in his last eight games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Derrick Rose $6,600 $6,500 $8,900 0.89 32.6 4.2 29.1 10.1 27.9% 1.0% 13
Courtney Lee $3,900 $3,800 $7,100 0.56 31.0 3.8 17.5 3.7 14.6% -1.0% 24
Carmelo Anthony $7,800 $7,600 $12,400 1.04 33.8 2.6 35.1 6.7 29.0% 2.7% 14
Kristaps Porzingis $7,500 $8,000 $12,000 1.02 33.6 3.1 34.4 2.6 23.6% 0.1% 28
Joakim Noah $4,300 $3,900 $8,000 0.92 22.5 -3.9 20.7 -5.9 13.1% -5.1% 4
Justin Holiday $4,100 $3,900 $6,500 0.68 18.1 -1.6 12.3 1.3 16.1% 2.1% 24

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis, Derrick Rose, Kyle O’Quinn (cash)

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Justin Holiday (if Courtney Lee is out)

Indiana Pacers at Los Angeles Clippers – 9:30 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Los Angeles Clippers
indiananba Vegas Total 206.0 laclippersnba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 98.3 Team Total 107.8
Pace +/- -0.4 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Monta Ellis Glenn Robinson Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 15 1 3 1 12 2016-17 14 7 15 21 26

Indiana Pacers

Paul George (questionable)
C.J. Miles (questonable)
Kevin Seraphin (questionable)

The Pacers travel to Los Angeles after losing to Portland on Wednesday. Paul George is being listed as questionable for this game and there is a chance that he plays. As we saw against LeBron James, Luc Mbah a Moute is a legit on-ball defender and should be able to keep George’s ceiling in check if he comes back. Don’t forget that the Clippers rank second in defensive efficiency and first in fantasy points allowed per game. Still, George is a viable tournament play if we get news he is playing before lineups lock due to the fact his ownership will be incredibly low and he has tournament-winning upside. Myles Turner has really stepped up in the absence of George, averaging 32.27 FDFP over his last seven starts. He’s simply a cash game option who could see a lower usage rate with George back.

Jeff Teague has been crushing it in the absence of Paul George, but he’s simply too expensive if George is back in the lineup. If George is ruled out after lineups lock, you can look at Teague in the later slate, but I would just avoid him tonight against Chris Paul. Thaddeus Young and Monta Ellis have been underperforming big time and should be avoided until further notice. No one is winning a GPP if Thaddeus Young or Monta Ellis go off. Rodney Stuckey has seen his minutes trending the right direction, but he’s a scoring-reliant guard who has only shot over 40% three times this season. If George can’t play, Glenn Robinson III will be a solid cash game option. He might not have a ton of upside, but the minutes will be there if George is out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Jeff Teague $7,200 $6,800 $10,400 1.03 31.4 -2.4 32.3 2.9 26.6% -2.0% 15
Monta Ellis $4,800 $4,600 $9,700 0.68 33.4 -1.7 22.6 0.1 18.7% 0.7% 1
Glenn Robinson $4,700 $5,000 $6,700 0.63 18.8 10.8 11.9 8.1 15.3% -2.5% 3
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,500 $9,900 0.79 30.5 1.7 24.0 -0.6 16.6% 1.0% 1
Myles Turner $6,400 $7,000 $11,000 1.08 28.4 -0.7 30.6 2.4 19.9% 0.3% 12
Rodney Stuckey $3,900 $3,900 $7,400 0.68 18.6 4.6 12.6 3.5 24.9% 0.1% 1

Elite Plays – N/A

Secondary Plays – Glenn Robinson III (elite cash if George is out), Myles Turner (if George is out)

Los Angeles Clippers

N/A

The Clippers rested J.J. Redick against the Pelicans on Friday, and he should be back to his starting role tonight. Redick is a solid cash game play who should be able to exploit Monta Ellis but does not have much tournament upside since he is a one-trick pony. Blake Griffin finally broke out of his slump against the Pelicans and is an elite option tonight against the Pacers. If George plays, I’d expect this game to remain competitive for over three quarters. If George does not play, this one could be over in the third. I don’t like predicting blowouts, but the Clippers are one team that will rest their guys in a blowout, bringing their ceiling down. Due to the questionable situation we have here, Griffin is too risky for cash games.

Chris Paul had a solid game against the Pelicans but is now priced too high for cash games. He remains a solid tournament player but comes with some risk as well. DeAndre Jordan continues to see the minutes, and we like to attack the Pacers 26th-ranked DvP with centers, but he has not proved to be a high-upside player with Griffin active. Mo Buckets, Jamal Crawford, and Austin Rivers have been all over the map in terms of production, and I would only look at them in the later slates once we have news on George.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Chris Paul $9,100 $8,500 $14,100 1.30 30.8 -0.5 40.1 -9.3 27.9% -1.5% 14
J.J. Redick $4,400 $4,700 $8,800 0.75 26.2 -0.6 19.5 -5.2 21.4% 1.2% 7
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,700 $3,200 $6,800 0.49 22.8 -4.8 11.2 -4.6 10.1% -1.5% 15
Blake Griffin $9,000 $8,300 $13,800 1.21 33.1 -1.0 39.9 -8.5 28.1% -0.8% 21
DeAndre Jordan $6,800 $6,200 $11,900 0.96 30.7 -0.3 29.5 1.6 14.5% -1.0% 26
Jamal Crawford $3,800 $4,000 $7,900 0.70 24.8 4.7 17.3 3.5 21.9% -1.2% 7

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin (GPP), Chris Paul (GPP)

Secondary Plays – J.J. Redick

About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.