NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 11th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2018-02-11 16:52:10

Jump to Page 1 2

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Charlotte Hornets – 1:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors							Charlotte Hornets
			Vegas Total		215.0					Vegas Total		215.0
			Vegas Spread		-3.5					Vegas Spread		3.5
			Implied Team Total		109.3					Implied Team Total		105.8
			Pace Projection +/-		1.1					Pace Projection +/-		1.2
Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas		Projected Starters	Kemba Walker	Nicolas Batum	Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	Marvin Williams	Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	13	9	26	17	16		DvP	6	8	7	9	15
DRPM Rat.	12	13	7	17	6		DRPM Rat.	4	23	4	15	15

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

None

This is an island afternoon game that is not part of the main slates on most sites today. However, FanDuel is offering their new “single game” format for this contest, so you can get some access to the game over there. This is an appealing game to target from a DFS perspective, as we have a healthy total of 215 points and a relatively close spread here. It’s kind of surprising to see such a high total, as neither of these teams play super fast, but they do run decent offense. In addition, the Raptors have scored 126 and 129 points in the first two meetings between these teams this season. Most of the production with Toronto, as usual, resides with the guards. Kyle Lowry is having a disappointing season as a whole, but the upside is always there on a daily basis. He scored 36 points in one of the previous meetings between these teams, and I think you can use him in the single game format on FanDuel. DeMar DeRozan remains the most consistent option on this squad, and while he won’t have the best of the individual matchups, he is a very safe option.

The Raptors should be very fresh for this game, too, as they are coming off a blowout win over the Knicks a few days ago. The issue in the frontcourt is that we simply never know where the minutes will land. The defensive weaknesses of Jonas Valanciunas often limit his potential, but he is a productive fantasy player on a per-minute basis. If you extrapolated his numbers to a 36 minute average, he’s only slightly behind the elite centers in the league. He carries a ton of risk, especially since this isn’t the best matchup for a big man, but the GPP appeal is there. Serge Ibaka carries a nice floor, but his upside is very much capped these days. He’s not playing 34-38 minutes on a regular basis. I will generally avoid the frontcourt plays here.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 111.4 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.8 (3 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.7 (13 of 16)

Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.8 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (11 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (GPP), Serge Ibaka (Cash)

Charlotte Hornets

Notable Injuries

None

Both of these teams are fully healthy now, which is a surprise for this time of year. The Charlotte side of this game is a little less appealing, as Toronto is a solid defensive squad that ranks inside the top ten in most DvP metrics against almost every position. Kemba Walker and Dwight Howard are having great seasons, though Howard is coming off a down game that was largely a product of foul trouble. Walker has been a fantastic weapon, and he often gets overlooked in DFS circles. Even in a matchup against Lowry, I do like Walker here. His ownership is always lower than it should be, and the 50+ fantasy point upside is certainly there at home.

Every other piece on this team is a risky option on a daily basis. We never know how many minutes Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams are going to get, and the frontcourt rotation only gets even more uncertain with Willy Hernangomez in the mix. However, it seems unlikely that he will debut for the Hornets today. That means Frank Kaminsky should have at least one more game as the primary reserve up front. Nicolas Batum has quietly been playing a little better lately, though, and he might just be the other piece we want to look at here. He is averaging 18 points per game in February compared to just 12 points per game for the season, and now the only thing that is missing is the secondary stats. That’s a bit of a surprise, as that usually isn’t the issue with Batum. He’s a reasonable secondary option here, but all told I prefer the other side of this game.

Charlotte Hornets Offense

Points Per Game: 106.3 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (7 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (9 of 16)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.6 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.1 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.5 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker

Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard, Nicolas Batum, Frank Kaminsky

Detroit Pistons at Atlanta Hawks – 3:30 PM ET

Detroit Pistons							Atlanta Hawks
			Vegas Total		211.0					Vegas Total		211.0
			Vegas Spread		-3.5					Vegas Spread		3.5
			Implied Team Total		107.3					Implied Team Total		103.8
			Pace Projection +/-		0.4					Pace Projection +/-		-1.0
Projected Starters	Ish Smith	Reggie Bullock	Stanley Johnson	Blake Griffin	Andre Drummond		Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Miles Plumlee
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	22	16	28	24	29		DvP	8	7	29	12	6
DRPM Rat.	30	2	24	22	14		DRPM Rat.	16	24	9	25	4

Detroit Pistons

Notable Injuries

None

The new-look Pistons had previously been rolling after the acquisition of Blake Griffin, before they hit a bit of a snag with a loss to Griffin’s former team the other night. They should be able to get back on track today with a matchup against the woeful Hawks, who rank near the bottom of the league in most defensive statistics. They rank in the bottom half in DvP against every position on the floor, so we can target some Pistons players with confidence. It appears that Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond will be able to co-exist nicely, as they have both been posting solid lines. Drummond continues to be a double-double machine and a beast on the glass, while Griffin is showing his all-around ability. Griffin is averaging 6.2 assists per game in his five contests with the Pistons, and we know he can score. Both players are great plays against the Hawks, though Drummond’s price tag is starting to get uncomfortably steep.

As for the other options on this team, the backcourt is a little less appealing. The good news is that Stan Van Gundy is employing a very short rotation these days; only eight players saw the court against the Clippers. Ish Smith carries some viability as a starting point guard who plays a healthy dose of minutes, but he is going to take a hit with Griffin running a little more of the offense. If you are looking for a punt play, both Reggie Bullock and Stanley Johnson are in play against a porous defense. Bullock played a whopping 40 minutes against the Clippers and might be Van Gundy’s 2018 version of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who always used to play a ton of minutes on this team. It’s a favorable matchup, so don’t be afraid to target some Pistons here. All five starters are in play to some degree.

Detroit Pistons Offense

Points Per Game: 103.3 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.0 (8 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.7 (3 of 16)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.5 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (14 of 30)

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin, Andre Drummond, Reggie Bullock

Secondary Plays – Ish Smith, Stanley Johnson

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

None

On the flip side of this game, it’s hard to get super excited about the Hawks. Their starters rarely see massively extended minutes. It’s a rare occasion that even the better players like Dennis Schroder and Kent Bazemore see more than 35 minutes of court time. That limits the ceiling quite a bit, and they draw a negative pace matchup against a Detroit team that ranks just 22nd in the NBA in tempo. It’s hard to write off a team completely on a three game afternoon slate, though, so we have to at least consider somebody here.

If I had to pick the one guy most likely to go off for the Hawks, I almost always default to Schroder. When he is feeling it, he is capable of lighting up the scoreboard. I wish his minutes were a little more reliable, but we have to work with what we are given. He’s the only guy I will consider as an elite play. I expect the frontcourt rotation to be a revolving door as Mike Budenholzer looks to find a rotation that can slow down the tandem of Griffin and Drummond. This could be the game where Dewayne Dedmon gets a little more run, as he is the most likely player to be able to slow them down on the glass. He’s a risk/reward GPP option. Both Bazemore and Taurean Prince are a bit unpredictable, but you could use them as mid-range plays if it fits the rest of your roster build.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.7 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.5 (11 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -1.2 (12 of 16)

Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.0 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (21 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder

Secondary Plays – Dewayne Dedmon (GPP), Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince

Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics – 3:30 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers							Boston Celtics
			Vegas Total		212.5					Vegas Total		212.5
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		104.0					Implied Team Total		108.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-1.1					Pace Projection +/-		0.6
Projected Starters	George Hill	J.R. Smith	Cedi Osman	LeBron James	Tristan Thompson		Projected Starters	Kyrie Irving	Jaylen Brown	Jayson Tatum	Al Horford	Aron Baynes
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	1	2	9	3	8		DvP	29	25	30	18	25
DRPM Rat.	20	2	3	2	1		DRPM Rat.	28	24	17	22	29

Cleveland Cavaliers

Notable Injuries

Kevin Love (Out)

Well, this will be a fun afternoon contest as the new-look Cavaliers travel to Boston to take on the Celtics. As of the time I am writing this, it looks like all the new acquisitions will be available for the Cavaliers. In case you missed the news throughout the week, that means we welcome George Hill, Rodney Hood, Jordan Clarkson, and Larry Nance to the club with Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder on to other pastures. Hill has already been announced as a starter along with J.R. Smith, LeBron James, Cedi Osman, and Tristan Thompson. Even though Smith is starting at the two, I would expect Clarkson to have a significant role off the bench, and he could very well become a starter at some point. For now, Clarkson is a very intriguing option off the bench.

Let’s break this down piece by piece. Hill showed flashes of potential in Sacramento this year, but the minutes were always a drag. I wouldn’t expect that to be an issue in Cleveland, especially since he has only the aging Jose Calderon to compete with for minutes. Now, Hill might not have the same usage rate on a team that includes LeBron James, but I’ll take a few shots on him today. The price tag is very cheap, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him log 32+ minutes. There’s some risk, but the cheap price tag mitigates that somewhat. I cannot trust Smith at the shooting guard spot, and I actually think Clarkson is a better risk/reward play in GPPs today. We haven’t seen any news as far as potential minutes go, so keep an eye on that before roster lock.

James is certainly a safe play on the high end, and he has led the Cavs to a couple of much needed wins this week. This is a difficult matchup against a very good defense, but James is as matchup-proof as they come. If you have the salary to fit him in, go ahead and do it. The other frontcourt spot will be manned by Cedi Osman, and this seems like a classic point chasing spot. He won’t get the kind of playing time that he saw last game any time soon, and though he was very good against the Hawks the other night, I recommend proceeding with caution. He’s a secondary option for me. Lastly, Tristan Thompson should continue to see a good chunk of playing time at center with Kevin Love sidelined. He’s a safe cash game play. It will be interesting to see how Larry Nance fits in and what role he has, but I can’t endorse him until we see how he is deployed by coach Lue.

Cleveland Cavaliers Offense

Points Per Game: 109.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (9 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (16 of 16)

Matchup vs. Boston Celtics

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.0 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.3 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – LeBron James, George Hill

Secondary Plays – Jordan Clarkson (GPP), Cedi Osman, Tristan Thompson (Cash)

Boston Celtics

Notable Injuries

Marcus Smart (Out)

On the other side of this game, the Celtics draw a great matchup against a Cleveland defense that has been awful all season. They will almost certainly be better without Isaiah Thomas, but I don’t expect Cleveland to turn into a defensive juggernaut overnight. Feel free to load up on some Celtics this afternoon. Kyrie Irving is healthy again, and it appears that he will be playing without any minutes restrictions moving forward. I have no qualms about targeting him in a favorable matchup. Terry Rozier has moved back into a sixth man role but will still see plenty of playing time with Marcus Smart sidelined. Rozier shot just 1-for-11 from the field in the last game, but the upside is there. He’s a very sneaky GPP option this afternoon. For what it’s worth, he scored 20 points in 20 minutes off the bench when these teams met last month, and that was when Smart was active. Jaylen Brown can also be considered in the favorable matchup, but his secondary stats leave a lot to be desired. If he isn’t scoring, the floor is uncomfortably low.

The frontcourt rotation is a little more unpredictable with Greg Monroe in the mix now, and the likeliest player to take the biggest hit here is Aron Baynes. I can’t endorse any of the centers on the Celtics right now. The safer players are the two forwards in Jayson Tatum and Al Horford. Tatum is flashing some upside a little more of late, while Horford is a steady mid-range option. We know the minutes should be more secure for those two despite the acquisition of Monroe, and the matchup is definitely a good one. It wouldn’t surprise me to see either one post a nice all-around line against a bad defense.

Boston Celtics Offense

Points Per Game: 103.1 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 5.7 (1 of 16)

Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.2 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.9 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.6 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.9 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Terry Rozier (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Terry Rozier (Cash), Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum

New York Knicks at Indiana Pacers – 5:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Indiana Pacers
			Vegas Total		209.0					Vegas Total		209.0
			Vegas Spread		8.5					Vegas Spread		-8.5
			Implied Team Total		100.3					Implied Team Total		108.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.9					Pace Projection +/-		-0.6
Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Tim Hardaway	Michael Beasley	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	Cory Joseph	Victor Oladipo	Bojan Bogdanovic	Thaddeus Young	Myles Turner
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	10	11	10	15	28		DvP	25	12	16	11	4
DRPM Rat.	26	1	29	13	18		DRPM Rat.	17	16	16	26	26

New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

Kristaps Porzingis (Out)
Enes Kanter (Probable)

The Knicks are coming off an embarrassing road loss in Toronto, and it will be interesting to see how they play without their leader for the rest of the season. The big spot to monitor here is the status of Enes Kanter. I haven’t seen an update since Thursday, but his injury wouldn’t seem to be one that would require a multi-game absence. The path to beating the Pacers often runs through elite big man play, so if Kanter is out there without restrictions this afternoon, he is absolutely an elite tournament option. If he is out, fire up Kyle O’Quinn as an elite value play once again. O’Quinn was solid in Kanter’s place on Thursday with nine points, eight rebounds, and a pair of blocks. There’s potential here – it’s just a matter of who will be playing.

I have buried the key item here, and that is the fact that Michael Beasley should continue to benefit from the absence of Porzingis. He has filled in admirably whenever he has gotten the chance this year, and he should start at power forward for the rest of the year. His price is by no means a value anymore, but he’s a fine mid-range play in all formats. This has been one of the better feel good stories of the year. As for the guard spots, I can’t touch the point guard spot right now. The Knicks have acquired Emmanuel Mudiay, and Jeff Hornacek has stated that Jarrett Jack will see his minutes decrease. With Mudiay, Jack, Frank Ntilikina, and Trey Burke all in the mix, good luck figuring this situation out.

The wing spots should continue to be manned by Courtney Lee and Tim Hardaway Jr. Both are priced comfortably in the mid-range, and while they aren’t primary plays, both should benefit some from Porzingis being sidelined. According to CourtIQ, Lee sees a 1.9% usage bump while Hardaway sees a 3.3% usage bump with Porzingis off the floor. On a short afternoon slate, there’s some appeal there. If this game stays close, it wouldn’t surprise me to see both of them hit value.

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.5 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.3 (14 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: -3.3 (15 of 16)

Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – Enes Kanter (if active), Kyle O’Quinn (only if Kanter is out), Michael Beasley

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr., Courtney Lee

Indiana Pacers

Notable Injuries

Darren Collison (Out)

Darren Collison remains sidelined for the Pacers, which means we should see Cory Joseph continue to start at the point. He has been terrible over the last two games, though, and the offensive usage just isn’t there. Even though Joseph is likely to play 30+ minutes, there isn’t much upside. I’ll pass. Victor Oladipo will run the offense plenty, as CourtIQ tells us that he has a massive 36.6% usage rate with Collison off the floor this year. It’s often difficult to pay the premium for Oladipo, but he is certainly in play in a favorable matchup this afternoon. The Knicks have not been a strong defensive team this year, as they rank 25th in the NBA in defensive efficiency this season. Fire up Oladipo as a strong play in all formats.

The frontcourt is a little less appealing, but both Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner showed some life the other night against Boston. Young put up a 13 point, 14 rebound double-double, while Turner had his first solid game in a while. I like the matchup against a Knicks frontcourt that is now missing Porzingis, as it’s hard to envision the tandem of Beasley and Kanter shutting teams down. Young is the safer cash game option, while Turner is more of a GPP play. Lance Stephenson is also in play as the sixth man, and he will run the point a little bit with the second unit. Don’t forget about him even though Oladipo is back.

Indiana Pacers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (4 of 16)
Projected Point Differential: 2.1 (4 of 16)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young (Cash), Myles Turner (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Thaddeus Young (GPP), Myles Turner (Cash), Lance Stephenson

Jump to Page 1 2