NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 7th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Denver at New York – 01:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Denver Proj. Starters – Nelson-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Nurkic
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
| Denver | New York | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.76 | Team Pace | 96.04 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Jusuf Nurkic | Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 11 | 10 | 8 | 15 | Opp. Season | 27 | 27 | 12 | 23 | 22 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 21 | 6 | 18 | 20 | 17 | Opp. Season | 17 | 4 | 5 | 23 | 8 | |
Denver (Record: 20-31 Away: 9-16)
New York Knicks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.3 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 196.0 (12 of 30)
The Knicks have been an average defensive squad this year. They are ranked 12th in fantasy points allowed per game and 18th in defensive efficiency. This game does not have a total out yet and will be updated when that occurs. Jameer Nelson is expected to miss another game today as he is without a timetable to return and Darrell Arthur is questionable to play as well. This gives a solid bump to both Mudiay, who should continue to see all the minutes he can handle as well as Jokic, who has seen a big bump in playing time recently.
Elite Plays
Jokic has been a solid fantasy contributor since receiving 25+ minutes a game at the end of January. Over his last five games, Jokic has averaged 29 minutes per game and has averaged more than a fantasy point per minute at 37.12 points during that span. He makes a solid mid-priced option today against the Knicks and will likely be the highest mid/value center played on the board.
FD — $6,400 — C
DK — $6,500 — C
Usage – 19.8
Min/Game — Season: 20.0
Gallo deserves a mention here today due a few reasons. First of all, after Carmelo Anthony, there are very few safe options at the small forward position. Gallinari is one of the few options left that will get you 35+ minutes on a regular basis. Next, Gallo will likely launch about 12-17 shots today against the Knicks and has been getting to the free throw line a ton lately (32 attempts in the last two games). This gives Gallo the floor needed for cash games and the upside needed for tournaments today as well.
FD — $7,100 — SF
DK — $6,900 — SF
Usage – 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 34.5
Secondary Plays
This pick in contingent on Nelson continuing to be out for the Nuggets today. With him out, Mudiay has been given a full compliment of minutes for the first time in his rookie career. He is coming off his best performance as he put up 22 real points (35.5 fantasy points) in 39 minutes against the Bulls on Friday. He should get 35+ minutes for a solid price across the industry and gets a decent matchup against Calderon.
FD — $5,400 — PG
DK — $5,600 — PG
Usage – 26.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.9
New York (Record: 23-30 Home: 14-13)
Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.7 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.7 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.6 (23 of 30)
Denver has been a poor defensive team and are always a solid matchup to target for daily fantasy purposes. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. Carmelo Anthony is expected to play today, which means Langston Galloway goes back to the bench and Kristap Porzingis and Arron Afflalo get bumps down in usage. Lance Thomas is expected to miss this game with a mild concussion, which does open up a few more minutes to Derrick Williams.
Elite Plays
If Carmelo suits up today he is by far the highest projected player at the small forward position on this short four game slate. He gets a great matchup against the Nuggets who have struggled on the defensive end all year long and gets a decent matchup against Gallinari.
FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $8,500 — SF
Usage – 28.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.7
Secondary Plays
Value is going to be needed on this short slate today and looking in the direction of Robin Lopez is in a decent position to give us that value. He has been great over the last three games, as he has averaged 34 minutes per game and 35.3 fantasy points during that span. He has a great matchup against the Nuggets who are ranked 22nd in the league at defending the center position.
FD — $5,600 — C
DK — $5,300 — SF
Usage – 16.5
Min/Game — Season: 25.4
Atlanta at Orlando – 01:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -3, 201.5 Over/Under
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Hezonja-Fournier-Frye-Vucevic
| Atlanta | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -3.0 | Vegas Sprd | 3.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 102.3 | Team Proj. | 99.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.25 | Team Pace | 96.45 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Mario Hezonja | Evan Fournier | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 7 | 20 | 19 | 8 | Opp. Season | 7 | 21 | 16 | 16 | 24 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 28 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 5 | Opp. Season | 1 | 13 | 23 | 29 | 2 | |
Atlanta (Record: 30-22 Away: 13-14)
Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.7 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.3 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 200.7 (18 of 30)
Orlando has been an average defensive team this year. They are ranked between 11th and 18th in all the above defensive categories. This game features a 201.5 total with the Hawks being slight 2.5-point favorites. This game should stay close throughout and the Hawks have a projected team total of 102. Tiago Splitter is the only Hawk on the injury report and he should miss today’s game with a hip injury.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
While Millsap should be an elite play today, he has struggled a bit or the last week and there are some injury concerns over an ankle issue he has been facing. With that said, he is the highest projected power forward on the slate today and has a solid matchup against the inside defense of the Magic (ranked 18th against the PF position). While his injuries woes bump him down to a secondary play, he could easily go off in this matchup and makes a solid tournament play.
FD — $7,800 — PF
DK — $7,900 — PF
Usage – 23.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.3
While I do not love Bazemore today, there are only four games being played so we may need to stretch for a few plays here and there. Small forward is looking pretty weak after the top options on the board, but Bazemore did see the court for 32 minutes in their game against the Pacers, which resulted in 32.2 fantasy points. If he can get 25+ minutes again today, we should see him reach value for his price today.
FD — $5,100 — SF
DK — $5,200 — SF
Usage – 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 28.2
Orlando (Record: 21-28 Home: 13-12)
Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.9 (17 of 30)
The Hawks have been an above average defensive team this year. They are giving up a league average 198.9 fantasy points per game (ranked 17th), but are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency and seventh in points allowed per game. The Magic are projected to score 99.5 points today, which is right around their season average (99.2). The only real injury concerns the Magic have is Tobias Harris has an eye injury, but is expected to play today.
Elite Plays
Oladipo is coming off a few really solid outings as he is getting all the minutes he can handle in this Magic offense. He has played 35+ in each of his last three on his way to 24.1, 55.4 and 39.1 fantasy performances in his last three games respectively. He gets a solid matchup against the Hawks who are ranked 21st in the league at defending the shooting guard position and should be in line for another 30+ fantasy outing today.
FD — $6,500 — SG
DK — $6,900 — SG
Usage – 14.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.7
Vucevic is a center that deserves to be considered, but will likely be under owned as many will be paying up for Demarcus Cousins or paying down for Jokic. Vucevic is an elite play today due to the matchup against the Hawks who are ranked 24th in the league at defending the center position and are the worst team in the league in rebounding differential. Vucevic should be able to dominate the glass and makes a great play today.
FD — $7,800 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
Usage – 22.9
Min/Game — Season: 30.8
Secondary Plays
Gordon is another player that deserves consideration on this short slate, but is starting to become a frustrating case in daily fantasy. Just when the industry thought we had a young stud that was going to get his 30-35 minutes per game, Skiles comes back to only play him less than 30 in his last two and he combined for 25.8 fantasy points during those games. He is a bit risky, but does have the upside today on a slate that lacks a ton of value.
FD — $4,900 — PF
DK — $5,500 — PF
Usage – 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 21.2
Sacramento at Boston – 01:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Rondo-McLemore-Gay-Acy-Cousins
- Boston Proj. Starters – Thomas-Turner-Crowder-Johnson-Olynyk
| Sacramento | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 102.08 | Team Pace | 101.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Quincy Acy | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Evan Turner | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Kelly Olynyk | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 10 | 21 | 25 | 18 | Opp. Season | 25 | 29 | 19 | 29 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 17 | 14 | 5 | 28 | Opp. Season | 15 | 29 | 13 | 17 | 24 | |
Sacramento (Record: 21-29 Away: 8-16)
Boston Celtics Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.3 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.7 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.5 (20 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 195.3 (11 of 30)
Boston has been a great defensive team this year as evidenced by their rank of second in the league in defensive efficiency. The Celtics have also been solid in points allowed as they are ranked ninth in real pints allowed and 11th in fantasy points allowed this year. The Kings are coming into this game expecting to have DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo healthy, but Ben McLemore and Rudy Gay are currently doubtful to play, which would open up a bunch of the value needed on this slate. The other player to keep an eye on is Willie Cauley-Stein who left the game on Friday and is questionable to play today.
Elite Plays
Regardless of the injuries to the rest of the team, Cousins is in play as the top center option today. He can take over any game at any time and would see a slight usage bump if Rudy Gay is forced to sit out. He has a solid matchup against the inside defense of the Celtics who are ranked 25th in the league at defending the power forward position and 18th in the league at defending the center position. Cousins has the highest upside on the slate tonight at any position.
FD — $11,100 — C
DK — $11,200 — PF
Usage – 33.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.3
Both Rondo and Cousins are in play today for the Kings as this should be an up tempo, high scoring game in Boston. The homecoming for Rondo is definitely in play today and it is coming at a great time for Rajon as he is coming off a 15 point, 15 assist game on Friday. While Rondo looks to be in a good position, paying for Paul and paying less for Thomas may be more popular options making Rondo a solid tournament option.
FD — $8,400 — PG
DK — $8,000 — PF
Usage – 21.6
Min/Game — Season: 35.0
Secondary Plays
The secondary plays today will come with the injury news to some of these Kings players. If Marco Belinelli is starting again due to Ben McLemore being out, he becomes a very solid value play at the shooting guard position. If Rudy Gay is sitting today, give a major bump to Omri Casspi who would likely be pushed into the starting lineup and would make a great value play at the small forward position.
Boston (Record: 30-22 Home: 15-10)
Sacramento Kings Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.7 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 211.4 (29 of 30)
The Kings have been terrible on the defensive end all year long and are one of the best teams to target players against in daily fantasy. The Kings are ranked last in the league in real points allowed per game and are 29th in fantasy points allowed at 211.4. This Celtics squad comes into this game looking very healthy as everyone is expected to suit up and play today.
Elite Plays
On the four game slate, there are a number of solid fantasy options at every price point at the point guard position. Thomas gives us a solid option priced under the studs today and has one of the best matchups on the board against Rondo and the Kings’ 23rd ranked point guard defense. Thomas is looking at a revenge game here as well and did get it earlier in the season when he had 48 fantasy points in their first matchup.
FD — $7,800 — PG
DK — $7,500 — PG
Usage – 28.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.4
Secondary Plays
Crowder is a decent mid-priced small forward option today. Earlier in the season, Crowder was the most consistent option on this Celtics squad. While injuries have taken that away a bit, Crowder has started to see his minutes rise again recently as he has played 30+ in his last two games. He has a great matchup against the Kings, especially in Gay is out today, but I would rather take the savings with Casspi, if he is getting the start.
FD — $5,900 — SF
DK — $5,800 — SF
Usage – 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.0
Bradley is getting a mention simply due to the fact that he is getting a ton of minutes each and every night. He has played an average of 36 minutes over his last six games and while the production has not been too high, he has averaged 24.3 fantasy points during that stretch, which is just under reaching value for his price today. He does not have the highest upside, but shouldn’t kill your lineups today at his price.
FD — $5,500 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SG
Usage – 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 32.8
Turner is another Celtic that we can target due to the matchup against the Kings as well as his recent play. Over his last three games he has put up fantasy efforts of 43.4, 30.7 and 36. If he can continue to get minutes around the 30 mark, he should be able to reach/exceed value in this matchup.
FD — $5,900 — SF
DK — $5,400 — SG
Usage – 19.0
Min/Game — Season: 27.0
L.A. Clippers at Miami – 02:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Miami -1.5, 196 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Johnson-Richard Mbah a Moute-Jordan
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Andersen
| L.A. Clippers | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 1.5 | Vegas Sprd | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.3 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.16 | Team Pace | 94.59 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Wesley Johnson | Luc Richard Mbah a Moute | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Chris Andersen | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 3 | 15 | 2 | 7 | Opp. Season | 3 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 28 | 9 | 24 | 9 | Opp. Season | 2 | 21 | 3 | 3 | 23 | |
L.A. Clippers (Record: 33-17 Away: 16-9)
Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.2 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.4 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.2 (3 of 30)
The Heat have been one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. They are ranked in the top six in the league in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. This game features a low total of 196 overall, but should stay close as the Heat are small one-point favorites. The Clippers have a projected team total of 97.5, which is 6.8 points lower than their season average.
Elite Plays
While this is a pace down game for the Clippers, it is still hard to ignore Chris Paul here. With the fact that this game should stay close, Paul will be required to do a bit more than he has had to in a number of blowouts recently. He should continue to see 35+ minutes today and will continue to see very high usage with Griffin out of the lineup. While you do not have to pay up for Paul today, due to this matchup, he could easily be the highest scoring point guard.
FD — $9,600 — PG
DK — $9,400 — PG
Usage – 27.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.5
Secondary Plays
The matchup is not ideal, which has placed Jordan in the secondary plays position. Yet, he has been a man on fire recently as he has put up 40.1, 45, and 56 fantasy points over his last three. The matchup today is much tougher than the last three games were, but he does have some tournament eligibility today as he will likely be very low owned.
FD — $8,500 — C
DK — $7,800 — C
Usage – 13.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.6
Depending on how much value opens up in the Kings/Celtics game, we may have to find it other places. Crawford may be that place as he has been playing very well recently as well. Over his last five games, he has averaged 20.6 real life points. At his sub 5k salary, he makes for a great punt play.
FD — $4,800 — SG
DK — $4,800 — SG
Usage – 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 25.7
Miami (Record: 29-22 Home: 16-9)
Los Angeles Clippers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.5 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.2 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (27 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 193.9 (9 of 30)
The Clippers have an above average defense this year and are ranked in the top ten in points allowed, defensive efficiency and fantasy points allowed per game. This game has the lowest total of the slate, but will be a pace up game for the Heat who have a projected total of 98.5, which is 2.5 points higher than their season average.
Elite Plays
Something has got into the old man over the last two weeks. He has put up some monster fantasy performances during this time and is doing so in just 30 minutes of play. He has been over 34 fantasy points in six of his last seven starts and has been over 40 in three of those games. He gets a solid matchup against Redick and Crawford and should get to the lane with ease today.
FD — $7,800 — SG
DK — $7,200 — SG
Usage – 30.8
Min/Game — Season: 30.2
The other star for the Heat is going to get a mention here as well as he gets a great matchup against the inside defense of the Clippers. The Clippers are ranked 5th and 23rd respectively against the power forward and center positions this year. With Jordan on Whiteside, the Clippers really lack another post presence that can compete with Bosh defensively. I expect him to have a solid game today and is about as safe as they come for cash game purposes.
FD — $7,400 — PF
DK — $7,100 — PF
Usage – 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 33.5
Secondary Plays
There are a lot of solid center options today and many, as I have said, will likely flock to Cousins or Jokic leaving the mid-level guys low owned. Whiteside is coming off a ridiculous triple double in 27 minutes (10 points, 10 rebounds, 10 blocks). If he can get back to getting his full compliment of minutes he could be a force, but until then, he can be used as a tournament play only.
FD — $8,000 — C
DK — $7,400 — C
Usage – 17.5
Min/Game — Season: 28.6
Value will again be needed and another spot that we can look is Winslow for the Heat. He has been playing minutes in the 30s and did so again with Whiteside in the lineup the last two games. He does not feature a ton of upside, but if he can get to about 20 fantasy points, it would allow to fit some of the studs in at the other positions.
FD — $4,400 — SF
DK — $4,300 — SF
Usage – 12.1
Min/Game — Season: 27.9