NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 18th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 7:00 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.0 |  | Vegas Total | 211.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.3 | Implied Team Total | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | Jerryd Bayless | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Joel Embiid | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 1 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | DvP | 17 | 22 | 19 | 20 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 25 | 1 | 27 | 1 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers have won six of their last ten games and are closing in on the Pistons for the eighth and final spot in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They draw a difficult matchup tonight, as they take on the Celtics in Boston. On the season, the Celtics are ranked second in points allowed per game and first in defensive efficiency. The Sixers are 4.5-point underdogs and have an implied total of only 103.3 points. Not only is that the lowest team total on the board, but they also have the worst projected point differential (-5.3).
Ben Simmons has seen his minutes trend in the wrong direction, averaging only 29 over his last five games. While that’s a concern, he could see minutes in the low 30s tonight with J.J. Redick out. Redick averages 33 minutes per game, which will be distributed to a number of players. Simmons has some tournament appeal at his discounted price point. Jerryd Bayless is expected to draw the start at shooting guard. While he’s not very efficient (0.59 FP/min) or involved offensively (14% usage rate), he’ll likely play 30 minutes at minimum salary on FanDuel.
While Bayless offers nice value, T.J. McConnell has the higher floor and the higher ceiling. He has played well over his last five gams, averaging 26 fantasy points per contest. With Redick out, there’s a good chance that McConnell plays 28-30 minutes. Robert Covington may also pick up a couple of minutes, but his recent form is a big concern. He has only topped 25 fantasy points one time in his last nine games.
Dario Saric is typically a fade for me when Joel Embiid is active, but his price is all the way down to $5,300 on FanDuel. With Richaun Holmes out, Saric should be locked into 30+ minutes tonight against the Celtics. Embiid draws a difficult matchup against a tough Celtics’ defense, but he has been matchup-proof all season. He has played at least 34 minutes in four of his last seven games and his price is discounted on both FanDuel ($10,000) and DraftKings ($9,400).
Notable Injuries
Richaun Holmes (Out)
J.J. Redick (Out)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.6 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (8 of 8)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.1 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.7 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $8,300 | $7,900 | $14,800 | 42.1 | -1.6 | 35.1 | -6.2 | 1.20 | 23.3% | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| Jerryd Bayless | $3,500 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 14.7 | -4.7 | 24.8 | -5.0 | 0.59 | 13.5% | 2 | 6 | 1 |
| Robert Covington | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,900 | 29.0 | -11.0 | 32.3 | -3.1 | 0.90 | 15.6% | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| Dario Saric | $5,300 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 26.8 | 1.3 | 30.5 | -1.3 | 0.88 | 17.6% | 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Joel Embiid | $10,000 | $9,400 | $18,000 | 45.2 | -1.7 | 31.3 | -0.1 | 1.44 | 27.5% | 8 | 12 | 1 |
| T.J. McConnell | $5,100 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 21.8 | 3.8 | 24.8 | 2.8 | 0.88 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – T.J. McConnell, Joel Embiid, Dario Saric (FD), Jerryd Bayless (FD)
Secondary Plays – Dario Saric (DK), Jerryd Bayless (DK), Robert Covington, Ben Simmons
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have won eight of their last ten games and currently own the best record in the East. They draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who are ranked second in pace of play and 23rd in points allowed per game. The Celtics have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate and five points above their season average. Due to the expected pace, we can give a small boost to the entire Celtics’ offense.
UPDATE: Kyrie Irving ruled OUT tonight; Marcus Smart will play.
There are two injuries that could change the landscape of tonight’s slate — Kyrie Irving and Marcus Smart are both listed as questionable. If Irving is ruled out, Smart would see a boost in minutes, while Terry Rozier would become an elite value play. If Smart is ruled out, Irving and Rozier would both be elite options. If Irving and Smart are ruled out, Rozier becomes a must play, while Jaylen Brown would get upgraded to an elite play. There are a lot of moving pieces here, so be ready to adjust your lineups accordingly.
The Celtics’ frontcourt is deep, which makes predicting fantasy production difficult. Jayson Tatum, Marcus Morris, Daniel Theis, and Aron Baynes have all flashed upside this season, but none stand out as great plays tonight against the Sixers. Al Horford’s minutes are the most secure and he has played well in the three meetings against the Sixers this season, averaging 37 fantasy points per contest. As always, Horford will get overlooked in both cash games and tournaments.
Notable Injuries
Kyrie Irving (Questionable)
Marcus Smart (Questionable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6 (3 of 8)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.7 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.3 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,200 | $8,300 | $16,000 | 38.0 | -1.4 | 32.7 | 2.4 | 1.16 | 29.5% | 7 | 17 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,700 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 26.2 | 0.5 | 31.4 | 0.8 | 0.84 | 17.9% | 27 | 22 | 25 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,200 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 26.2 | -1.2 | 30.9 | -2.1 | 0.85 | 15.5% | 10 | 19 | 1 |
| Al Horford | $7,400 | $7,000 | $13,400 | 33.6 | -1.0 | 32.6 | 0.5 | 1.03 | 17.4% | 11 | 20 | 27 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 15.5 | 2.9 | 18.4 | 1.0 | 0.84 | 14.4% | 11 | 19 | 1 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,700 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 21.2 | 1.4 | 23.4 | 1.5 | 0.90 | 20.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Smart | $5,700 | $5,100 | $9,900 | 24.4 | 2.2 | 30.4 | -2.8 | 0.80 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $4,000 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 20.0 | -0.4 | 23.1 | -1.7 | 0.86 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD (Waiting on Irving and Smart)
Secondary Plays – TBD (Waiting on Irving and Smart)
Orlando Magic at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
| Orlando Magic | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 226.5 |  | Vegas Total | 226.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.8 | Implied Team Total | 118.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Jonathon Simmons | Aaron Gordon | Bismack Biyombo | Projected Starters | Isaiah Thomas | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 21 | 23 | 29 | 24 | 23 | DvP | 30 | 28 | 20 | 27 | 25 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 25 | 20 | 27 | 25 | DRPM Rat. | 26 | 28 | 30 | 27 | 28 | |
Orlando Magic
In my opinion, this is the game that is going to make or break the slate. If it stays close, we will need exposure to it to cash in tournaments. If it turns into a blowout, those brave enough to fade it could be rewarded. Given the inconsistency of the Magic, who knows which team is going to show up tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Cavaliers, who are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Despite playing on the road, the Magic have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is nearly three points higher than their season average.
Elfrid Payton is about as inconsistent as they come. He has 50 fantasy point upside, but he can also wreck your lineups by putting up 15 fantasy points. He’s far from what we should consider a safe cash game target. However, he’s going to draw the defense of Isaiah Thomas and potentially Derrick Rose. He should also benefit from the fact that the Cavaliers don’t have an elite rim protector. Evan Fournier is one of the top point-per-dollar targets at any position tonight. He should see minutes in the mid-30s against a Cavaliers’ defense that is ranked 23rd against shooting guards this season.
Jonathon Simmons and Mario Hezonja are cutting into each other’s playing time and production, but that doesn’t mean that we have to avoid the situation completely. The way I see it, they both average 0.78 FP/min on the season, so I’ll side with the one that is projected to play more tonight (Simmons). Aaron Gordon has terrific upside tonight against the Cavaliers, who don’t rebound or defend the paint well. Bismack Biyombo is an intriguing fade in this slate. While he is averaging 35 fantasy points over his last five games, they may not need him on the floor as much tonight against the smaller Kevin Love.
Notable Injuries
Jonathan Isaac (Out)
Arron Afflalo (Doubtful)
Marreese Speights (Questionable)
Orlando Magic Offense
Points Per Game: 105.3 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.8 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 2.5 (4 of 8)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elfrid Payton | $6,700 | $6,400 | $13,000 | 29.2 | -4.2 | 29.0 | -2.2 | 1.01 | 21.2% | 21 | 21 | 20 |
| Evan Fournier | $5,700 | $5,500 | $11,500 | 27.8 | -0.5 | 32.6 | 0.8 | 0.85 | 20.6% | 21 | 23 | 25 |
| Jonathon Simmons | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,100 | 22.5 | -7.4 | 28.7 | -2.1 | 0.78 | 20.0% | 26 | 29 | 20 |
| Aaron Gordon | $7,500 | $7,500 | $13,700 | 34.1 | -4.8 | 33.6 | 0.6 | 1.01 | 20.8% | 27 | 24 | 27 |
| Bismack Biyombo | $7,500 | $6,200 | $13,200 | 16.8 | 18.0 | 18.2 | 9.2 | 0.92 | 11.2% | 16 | 23 | 25 |
| D.J. Augustin | $4,200 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 16.1 | 4.9 | 20.3 | -0.3 | 0.80 | 17.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mario Hezonja | $4,300 | $4,300 | $9,300 | 13.5 | 9.0 | 17.3 | 10.2 | 0.78 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Evan Fournier, Elfrid Payton (GPP), Jonathon Simmons (GPP), Aaron Gordon (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (Cash), Jonathon Simmons (Cash), Aaron Gordon (Cash), Mario Hezonja, Bismack Biyombo
Cleveland Cavaliers
It’s hard to believe, but the Cavaliers have lost four games in a row and eight of their last ten. That fact alone gives me hope that the Magic can keep this game within striking distance so that the starters can play a full complement of minutes. The Cavaliers are also in a tremendous matchup, as Orlando is ranked 27th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Cavaliers have the highest implied total (118.8 points) and the highest projected point differential (+9.3) of the slate.
Isaiah Thomas played a season-high 31 minutes the other night against the Cavaliers. He has yet to have an efficient game from the floor, which only means that we have yet to see his ceiling. If he sees 30 minutes tonight against the Magic, he should easily reach and exceed value at a price point of $5,700 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. With Derrick Rose expected to play tonight, I want no part of J.R. Smith or Kyle Korver. Dwyane Wade should still see his 23-25 minutes off the bench, which puts him on my radar in tournaments.
LeBron James is easily the top overall play of the slate. While we have to pay a pretty penny for him, he will likely be worth it if this game stays close. The Magic are ranked 29th in efficiency against small forwards and LeBron is averaging 54 fantasy points over his last five games (only played 34 minutes per contest during that stretch). Jae Crowder is cheap, but Jeff Green continues to out-produce him off the bench. Green is a viable play at only $3.900. Kevin Love continues to make sense in tournaments, but his inconsistency makes him an easy fade in cash games.
Notable Injuries
Iman Shumpert (Out)
Derrick Rose (Probable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.5 (5 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 118.8 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 9.3 (1 of 8)
Matchup vs. Orlando Magic
Points Allowed Per Game: 110.9 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaiah Thomas | $5,700 | $5,700 | $10,900 | 18.3 | -0.1 | 23.1 | 1.1 | 0.79 | 31.0% | 26 | 30 | 26 |
| J.R. Smith | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 16.5 | -5.2 | 29.8 | -1.0 | 0.55 | 11.7% | 30 | 28 | 28 |
| LeBron James | $12,500 | $11,300 | $21,200 | 54.2 | -0.5 | 36.9 | -2.3 | 1.47 | 29.6% | 29 | 20 | 30 |
| Jae Crowder | $3,700 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 16.1 | 0.2 | 25.5 | -3.6 | 0.63 | 13.6% | 18 | 27 | 27 |
| Kevin Love | $7,500 | $7,400 | $14,100 | 35.2 | -6.3 | 29.0 | -2.1 | 1.21 | 22.9% | 24 | 25 | 28 |
| Dwyane Wade | $5,200 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 24.4 | -0.2 | 23.5 | -0.4 | 1.04 | 22.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jeff Green | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,700 | 18.9 | -1.8 | 22.6 | 0.7 | 0.84 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tristan Thompson | $3,900 | $3,800 | $7,100 | 14.0 | 2.1 | 18.9 | 1.4 | 0.74 | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, LeBron James
Secondary Plays – Jeff Green, Dwyane Wade (GPP), Kevin Love (GPP)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets – 9:30 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 222.5 |  | Vegas Total | 222.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.8 | Implied Team Total | 113.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Luc Mbah a Moute | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 12 | 21 | 24 | 7 | 9 | DvP | 15 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 2 | 19 | 1 | 28 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 1 | 25 | 8 | 14 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves have won seven of their last ten games and have vaulted up to fourth place in the Western Conference standings. While the Rockets are a very good basketball team, this game has the potential to turn into a shootout. We have a total of 222.5 points and the spread is set at only five points. The Rockets are ranked seventh in pace of play and 21st in points allowed per game, so we should consider this to be a favorable matchup. The Wolves have an implied total of 108.7 points, which is the third highest overall.
Jeff Teague will draw the defense of Chris Paul, which makes him an easy fade at this price point. Paul is one of a handful of players that I will not target players against unless the value is too good to ignore, which is not the case with Teague. Jimmy Butler should push for 40 minutes tonight. He is averaging 49 fantasy points over his last five games and is still only $8,800 on DraftKings. Andrew Wiggins will likely avoid the defense of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, which would likely put James Harden or Eric Gordon on him. I like his chances in both of those matchups and his price is reasonable across the industry.
Taj Gibson’s minutes are down over his last five games, but that is being pulled down by two games in particular — one he got into foul trouble and the other was a blowout. He should play 34-36 minutes in an up-tempo game against the Rockets. He’s one of the safest power forward targets available tonight and he has a fairly high ceiling in this matchup. Karl-Anthony Towns draws a tough individual matchup against Clint Capela, but his price is down and I like the game environment as a whole. I slightly prefer Joel Embiid, but it’s hard to go wrong with either center.
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.7 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (5 of 8)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.1 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.5 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,800 | $6,300 | $12,700 | 30.9 | 1.6 | 33.8 | -3.2 | 0.91 | 20.1% | 6 | 12 | 2 |
| Jimmy Butler | $10,000 | $8,800 | $17,000 | 40.9 | 8.6 | 36.8 | -2.7 | 1.11 | 23.9% | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,200 | $5,800 | $13,000 | 29.0 | 0.0 | 36.1 | -1.3 | 0.80 | 21.1% | 27 | 24 | 1 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,600 | $5,400 | $12,000 | 26.6 | 1.5 | 33.5 | -1.4 | 0.79 | 13.0% | 6 | 7 | 28 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,200 | $9,100 | $18,900 | 42.8 | -1.4 | 35.8 | -0.5 | 1.19 | 19.5% | 9 | 9 | 4 |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,600 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 16.3 | 3.0 | 18.3 | 1.8 | 0.89 | 14.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Andrew Wiggins, Taj Gibson, Jimmy Butler (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD)
Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)
Houston Rockets
The Rockets will have James Harden back in the lineup tonight, but they will be without two of their wing players. Trevor Ariza and Gerald Green were both suspended for the incident against the Clippers the other night. With Harden limited to 25 minutes, we should see a very tight rotation tonight. The Rockets draw a mediocre matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Houston has an implied total of 113.8 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
We often see minute restrictions fall by the wayside, but I’d be shocked if Harden played 30 minutes tonight. He’s an easy fade at his price point in both cash games and tournaments. Everyone will be quick to hop off of Chris Paul and Eric Gordon, but they are two of my favorite tournament plays on the board. Paul should benefit from Harden’s minute restriction and Gordon could push for 35+ minutes with Ariza and Green out. The best part is that DraftKings took into account the return of Harden, so Paul and Gordon are a bit cheaper than we’ve seen them over the last week.
Ryan Anderson doesn’t have the best splits at home over the last two seasons, but he’s cheap and could see extended playing time tonight. Dollar for dollar, I much prefer Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and P.J. Tucker, who are both close to minimum salary. With Ariza and Green out, they could both push for 30 minutes tonight. Clint Capela has plenty of upside, but he also has a low minutes floor now that Nene Hilario and Tarik Black are both healthy.
Notable Injuries
Gerald Green (Out)
Trevor Ariza (Out)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 114.6 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.8 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (6 of 8)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.8 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $10,400 | $9,500 | $17,600 | 43.2 | 7.3 | 31.9 | 1.1 | 1.35 | 25.9% | 16 | 15 | 23 |
| James Harden | $10,500 | $10,500 | $21,600 | 54.5 | 36.3 | 1.50 | 34.0% | 24 | 9 | 1 | ||
| Luc Mbah a Moute | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 16.3 | 0.1 | 25.3 | 0.7 | 0.64 | 10.4% | 5 | 2 | 25 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 20.1 | -0.1 | 28.6 | 1.2 | 0.70 | 13.2% | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| Clint Capela | $7,500 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 34.9 | 0.1 | 26.4 | 3.4 | 1.32 | 17.3% | 22 | 13 | 14 |
| P.J. Tucker | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 17.0 | -0.9 | 26.9 | -0.6 | 0.63 | 8.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Eric Gordon | $6,800 | $6,300 | $13,400 | 27.4 | 5.4 | 32.7 | 1.0 | 0.84 | 22.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, P.J. Tucker, Chris Paul (GPP), Eric Gordon (GPP), Clint Capela (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Chris Paul (Cash), Eric Gordon (Cash), Clint Capela (Cash), Ryan Anderson
Indiana Pacers at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET
| Indiana Pacers | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.3 | Implied Team Total | 108.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Domantas Sabonis | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Evan Turner | Al-Farouq Aminu | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 3 | DvP | 11 | 10 | 6 | 16 | 30 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 15 | 25 | 15 | 14 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 20 | 1 | 28 | 14 | 28 | |
Indiana Pacers
The final game of the night will likely have the least amount of ownership, even though the total is higher than that of the Celtics’ game. The Pacers are in a difficult spot on the road against the Blazers, who are ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Indiana has an implied total of 104.3 points, which is the second lowest of the slate and three points below their season average.
Darren Collison’s minutes have been trending in the wrong direction, which makes him an easy fade at point guard. Victor Oladipo has some tournament appeal. While the matchup as a whole is difficult, the Blazers are ranked 21st in efficiency against shooting guards. Lance Stephenson is listed as questionable, but I don’t have a ton of interest in Cory Joseph or Bojan Bogdanovic, even if he is ruled out.
Thaddeus Young hasn’t quite seen the minute boost that we were hoping for with Myles Turner out of the lineup. Over his last five games, he is averaging 32 minutes and 24 fantasy points. He’s not a bad play tonight, but I much prefer Taj Gibson at a similar price point. Domantas Sabonis has played well in Turner’s absence, averaging 28 fantasy points over his last five games. The problem is that he’ll be defended by Jusuf Nurkic, who has one of the highest DRPM grades of any center in basketball.
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Out)
Lance Stephenson (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.4 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -3.2 (7 of 8)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.3 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.2 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.8 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.1 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 26.8 | 0.2 | 30.0 | -1.5 | 0.89 | 18.6% | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,300 | $8,500 | $16,200 | 42.4 | -4.0 | 34.0 | -0.6 | 1.25 | 27.3% | 21 | 20 | 25 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,200 | $4,100 | $8,500 | 19.8 | -4.3 | 30.7 | -4.3 | 0.65 | 16.1% | 17 | 15 | 15 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,800 | $5,300 | $10,400 | 26.2 | -1.9 | 32.3 | -0.3 | 0.81 | 15.3% | 8 | 10 | 14 |
| Domantas Sabonis | $6,000 | $6,000 | $12,900 | 26.1 | 2.0 | 24.8 | 2.6 | 1.05 | 19.3% | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| Cory Joseph | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.8 | -0.7 | 25.6 | 1.0 | 0.73 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,900 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 20.6 | 2.8 | 23.6 | -0.5 | 0.87 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Victor Oladipo (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Victor Oladipo (Cash), Domantas Sabonis, Thaddeus Young
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have lost five of their last ten games and are in danger of falling out of the top eight in the Western Conference standings. Luckily, they draw a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Pacers, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Blazers have an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the third highest overall and five points above their season average.
Damian Lillard comes into the game in good form, averaging 46 fantasy points over his last five contests. While Darren Collison has struggled a bit defensively, the Pacers as a whole are ranked fifth in efficiency against point guards. Lillard is viable in all formats, but he’s not my favorite superstar to pay up for. C.J. McCollum is a bit too expensive for my liking and it doesn’t help that he’ll be defended by Victor Oladipo, who has one of the best DRPM grades of any player in the slate.
Evan Turner is inconsistent and a deep tournament dart at best. Al-Farouq Aminu continues to be underpriced on DraftKings and I don’t mind going right back to the well tonight. The best way to attack Indiana is in the frontcourt. Jusuf Nurkic has been quiet over his last five games, but has a breakout matchup against Indiana. On the season, no team has allowed more fantasy points per game to centers. Nurkic is one of the top tournament plays on the board.
Notable Injuries
None
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.8 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.8 (2 of 8)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.7 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,400 | $8,700 | $16,000 | 41.8 | 3.9 | 36.5 | -1.3 | 1.15 | 28.5% | 5 | 11 | 20 |
| C.J. McCollum | $8,300 | $7,300 | $14,900 | 33.7 | 3.9 | 36.4 | -3.0 | 0.93 | 24.4% | 13 | 10 | 1 |
| Evan Turner | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 18.0 | 0.2 | 26.7 | -0.7 | 0.67 | 15.1% | 5 | 6 | 28 |
| Al-Farouq Aminu | $5,600 | $5,000 | $10,500 | 23.3 | 1.4 | 30.2 | -0.7 | 0.77 | 13.0% | 21 | 16 | 14 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $6,500 | $6,400 | $13,200 | 30.3 | -2.7 | 27.0 | -3.5 | 1.12 | 23.4% | 28 | 30 | 28 |
| Ed Davis | $3,500 | $3,400 | $6,700 | 16.0 | -0.8 | 18.3 | 3.1 | 0.88 | 10.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Zach Collins | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,000 | 10.2 | 0.8 | 14.7 | 4.8 | 0.69 | 13.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |