NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 25th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET
| Sacramento Kings | Miami Heat | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | De’Aaron Fox | George Hill | Bogdan Bogdanovic | Zach Randolph | Willie Cauley-Stein | Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Wayne Ellington | Josh Richardson | James Johnson | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 6 | DvP | 11 | 19 | 22 | 18 | 28 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 23 | 25 | 7 | 5 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 25 | 24 | 28 | 24 | |
Sacramento Kings
The Kings are going to be a frustrating team to target the rest of the season. They will constantly be changing their lineup and resting players. This would be fine from a DFS standpoint if they actually told us who was going to play before the game started. Vince Carter and Garrett Temple are both rest candidates tonight, while Zach Randolph, De’Aaron Fox, Kosta Koufos, George Hill, and Skal Labissiere are all listed as probable. The Kings draw a difficult matchup against the Heat, who are ranked fourth in points allowed per game. The Kings have an implied total of 95.3 points, which is the lowest of the slate and three points below their season average.
De’Aaron Fox left last game early with some abdominal tightness but is expected to play tonight. Before the injury, he had scored 26 or more fantasy points in three of his last five games. Goran Dragic isn’t a great defender himself, but the Heat are ranked first in efficiency against point guards this season. George Hill is one of the veterans that I will be hesitant to play the rest of the season. His minutes are going to be extremely volatile. I’d rather target Buddy Hield or Bogdan Bogdanovic, who the Kings are looking to develop.
Zach Randolph is expected to play tonight, but who knows how many minutes he’ll play with Kosta Koufos and Skal Labissiere both active. All three are intriguing tournament plays, but Willie Cauley-Stein is the only Kings’ player that I feel confident in tonight. They will need his defense against Hassan Whiteside and he comes into the game in good form. Over his last five games, WCS has averaged 35 minutes and 37 fantasy points per contest.
Notable Injuries
Frank Mason (Out)
Vince Carter (Doubtful)
Garrett Temple (Doubtful)
Zach Randolph (Probable)
De’Aaron Fox (Probable)
Sacramento Kings Offense
Points Per Game: 98.0 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.3 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (8 of 8)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.8 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De’Aaron Fox | $5,400 | $5,200 | $9,900 | 21.5 | -0.7 | 26.5 | 0.9 | 0.81 | 21.3% | 1 | 5 | 23 |
| George Hill | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 20.2 | 4.6 | 27.0 | -0.3 | 0.75 | 16.4% | 9 | 14 | 25 |
| Bogdan Bogdanovic | $5,500 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 20.9 | 3.5 | 26.8 | 5.1 | 0.78 | 17.8% | 17 | 7 | 7 |
| Zach Randolph | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 26.7 | -11.9 | 25.1 | -4.4 | 1.06 | 24.3% | 10 | 6 | 5 |
| Willie Cauley-Stein | $7,500 | $6,500 | $12,500 | 28.2 | 8.7 | 27.2 | 7.4 | 1.04 | 19.6% | 10 | 6 | 1 |
| Buddy Hield | $5,900 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 21.6 | 6.4 | 24.1 | 2.6 | 0.90 | 21.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Skal Labissiere | $5,600 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 17.4 | 11.2 | 18.0 | 9.2 | 0.96 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kosta Koufos | $4,000 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 16.8 | -1.8 | 18.5 | 0.6 | 0.91 | 13.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – De’Aaron Fox (GPP), Skal Labissiere (GPP), Willie Cauley-Stein
Miami Heat
The Heat have won seven of their last ten games and currently own the fourth best record in the Eastern Conference. Even though the Kings play at an agonizingly slow pace, they are still an exploitable matchup for fantasy production. On the season, Sacramento is ranked 30th in defensive efficiency and 28th in rebounding differential. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 105.3 points, which gives them the highest projected point differential of the slate (+4.3).
Goran Dragic is expected to play tonight, but he will go through warmups before an official decision is made. Assuming he is active, he becomes an intriguing tournament option against De’Aaron Fox, who has one of the worst defensive real plus-minus (DRPM) grades of any point guard in the NBA this season. With Tyler Johnson out again, Dragic could push for minutes in the mid-30s. Derrick Jones may draw the start, but Wayne Ellington is playing the bulk of the shooting guard minutes. The problem is that he is priced up across the industry.
Josh Richardson plays as many minutes as just about anyone and that should be the case again tonight. He offers a high floor, especially on FanDuel since they reward three points a piece for blocks and steals. James Johnson has been quiet over his last five games, but he draws a nice matchup against a Kings’ team that struggles to defend the paint. My night will likely hinge on the performance of Hassan Whiteside. I plan to use him in all formats and on all sites. He has played at least 30 minutes in three of his last four games and has averaged 47 fantasy points during that stretch. Tonight he’ll feast on a Kings’ frontcourt that is ranked 29th in efficiency against centers and 28th in rebounding differential.
Notable Injuries
Tyler Johnson (Out)
Goran Dragic (Probable)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.9 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.3 (1 of 8)
Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.8 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.0 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $7,200 | $7,100 | $14,700 | 30.5 | -0.4 | 32.1 | 2.2 | 0.95 | 25.4% | 14 | 11 | 29 |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,900 | $5,300 | $11,200 | 17.8 | 6.8 | 25.8 | 7.9 | 0.69 | 16.0% | 20 | 19 | 25 |
| Josh Richardson | $6,700 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 25.5 | 6.4 | 34.1 | 1.3 | 0.75 | 16.2% | 21 | 22 | 24 |
| James Johnson | $5,800 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 25.1 | -2.4 | 26.7 | 1.4 | 0.94 | 18.7% | 23 | 18 | 28 |
| Hassan Whiteside | $9,300 | $8,400 | $15,400 | 36.5 | 5.2 | 26.1 | 1.7 | 1.40 | 20.2% | 29 | 28 | 24 |
| Kelly Olynyk | $4,600 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 22.4 | 1.4 | 23.6 | -1.1 | 0.95 | 17.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Justise Winslow | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 17.0 | -2.5 | 22.8 | 2.5 | 0.75 | 13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Josh Richardson, James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside
Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, Wayne Ellington, Justise Winslow (FD)
Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Oklahoma City Thunder | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.4 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Paul George | Carmelo Anthony | Steven Adams | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 3 | DvP | 15 | 9 | 24 | 3 | 24 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 3 | 1 | 6 | 24 | 22 | DRPM Rat. | 12 | 14 | 1 | 19 | 9 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards and the Thunder have to elite offenses, but they are also two of the better defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, Oklahoma City is ranked third in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. To make matters worse, the Wizards are playing on the road in a hostile environment. Washington comes into the game with an implied total of 104.5 points, which is the third lowest on the board and two points below their season average.
A year ago, we were streaming point guards against the Thunder. Russell Westbrook was expending all of his energy on the offensive end of the floor, which in turn hurt his play on the defensive end of the floor. That hasn’t been the case this season, as Westbrook has one of the highest DRPM grades of any point guard in the NBA. As a team, the Thunder are ranked eighth in efficiency against point guards. The question is whether the discount on John Wall ($8,500 on DraftKings) is steep enough to overcome the difficult matchup. I’m leaning toward yes, but I still don’t see Wall as a must play in this slate.
Bradley Beal will be defended by Andre Roberson, which immediately takes him out of consideration at his price point. Otto Porter will be tasked with defending Paul George, which could result in a few extra minutes. Markieff Morris is awfully cheap across the industry, but he offers a very low floor. He’s a viable play in tournaments, but there are safer cash game targets. The same can be said for Kelly Oubre off the bench, who I never seem to be on the right side of. Marcin Gortat has played fewer than 20 minutes in three straight games and can be avoided until that changes.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.5 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 (7 of 8)
Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.8 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.0 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,500 | $8,500 | $16,200 | 41.0 | -2.0 | 34.3 | 1.4 | 1.20 | 28.7% | 8 | 4 | 3 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,600 | $7,200 | $13,400 | 36.9 | -3.8 | 35.9 | 1.7 | 1.03 | 26.1% | 8 | 12 | 1 |
| Otto Porter | $6,500 | $5,900 | $11,500 | 29.6 | -4.4 | 31.6 | -1.3 | 0.94 | 16.2% | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,400 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 20.0 | -0.2 | 25.1 | 2.2 | 0.80 | 16.0% | 15 | 8 | 24 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,300 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 24.2 | -2.4 | 26.8 | -4.5 | 0.90 | 13.7% | 3 | 3 | 22 |
| Kelly Oubre | $5,100 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 22.4 | 2.0 | 27.4 | 3.2 | 0.82 | 16.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Scott | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 14.9 | -2.2 | 18.5 | -2.8 | 0.80 | 16.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall (DK)
Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD), Otto Porter, Markieff Morris (GPP)
Oklahoma City Thunder
The Thunder are making some noise in the Western Conference. They have won five games in a row and have vaulted up to fifth place in the standings. How great would it be if they ended up being the fourth seed and had a second-round playoff series against the Warriors? As for tonight, their matchup against the Wizards is mediocre. Washington is ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 13th in defensive efficiency. The Thunder have an implied total of 109 points, which is the third highest on the board.
Russell Westbrook had one of the worst first-half performances I have ever seen him put up against the Nets the other night, yet he still managed to finish the game with 52 fantasy points. He is clearly the top overall play in this slate and it’s hard not to like him in a game where the Thunder’s implied total is nearly four points above their season average. Andre Roberson is a sneaky value play tonight, as he typically plays minutes in the 30s when he is matched up against an elite scorer. Bradley Beal certainly fits that mold.
Paul George has been a regular feature in the Grind Down this season, but has underwhelmed for the most part. With that said, he has scored at least 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games. Carmelo Anthony isn’t a terrible play at his price point, but he’s more of a lineup filler than a lineup starter. Steven Adams always makes sense in cash games due to his high floor, but I will have so much exposure to Hassan Whiteside that I won’t have much room for any other center in this slate. If Patrick Patterson is eventually ruled out, Jerami Grant could become a sneaky value play off the bench.
Notable Injuries
Patrick Patterson (Questionable)
Oklahoma City Thunder Offense
Points Per Game: 105.4 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.0 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 (3 of 8)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.0 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook | $11,900 | $11,400 | $20,800 | 53.5 | -3.2 | 35.8 | -2.0 | 1.49 | 35.0% | 11 | 15 | 12 |
| Andre Roberson | $4,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 17.8 | 2.5 | 26.8 | -1.6 | 0.66 | 8.1% | 7 | 9 | 14 |
| Paul George | $8,100 | $7,600 | $13,700 | 37.4 | -0.9 | 36.4 | -2.2 | 1.03 | 22.8% | 13 | 24 | 1 |
| Carmelo Anthony | $6,600 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 29.8 | 3.4 | 32.6 | -1.9 | 0.91 | 22.1% | 20 | 3 | 19 |
| Steven Adams | $7,300 | $6,600 | $11,900 | 30.9 | 6.4 | 32.0 | -1.4 | 0.97 | 14.5% | 15 | 24 | 9 |
| Jerami Grant | $3,600 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 16.0 | -3.7 | 20.5 | -1.5 | 0.78 | 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Raymond Felton | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,600 | 15.0 | 4.3 | 17.1 | -0.1 | 0.88 | 20.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Patrick Patterson | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 8.6 | 5.8 | 14.6 | 3.2 | 0.59 | 10.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Paul George (Cash), Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams, Jerami Grant (if Patterson is out)
New York Knicks at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Denver Nuggets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.0 |  | Vegas Total | 214.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Will Barton | Mason Plumlee | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 2 | 13 | 25 | 15 | DvP | 26 | 13 | 15 | 9 | 9 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 25 | 3 | 25 | 16 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 18 | 21 | 16 | 5 | 28 | |
New York Knicks
The Knicks have lost seven of their last ten games and travel to the Mile High City to take on the Nuggets. Before I saw the spread, I expected to see it around eight points, but it’s currently set at only five points. This bodes well for the starters from both sides, as they should see a full complement of minutes in a competitive game. The Knicks have an implied total of 104.5 points, which is the third lowest of the slate and nearly identical to their season average.
Jarrett Jack is one of the few bright spots when it comes to value plays in this slate. He is priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he should see somewhere in the range of 26-28 minutes, and he gets to face a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 27th in efficiency against point guards. I expect the Nuggets to put Gary Harris (if he plays) on Tim Hardaway, which would leave Will Barton on Courtney Lee. If that’s how it plays out, Lee could easily pay off his cheap salary. I plan to have some exposure to Hardaway as well, but he’s more of a tournament play in my eyes.
Kristaps Porzingis is expected to play tonight after missing one game with a knee injury. Of the two Knicks’ bigs, he clearly has the better matchup. While Enes Kanter will be locking horns with Nikola Jokic, Porzingis will be on the beach sipping Pina Coladas with Mason Plumlee. While I don’t love the spot for Kanter, I will give him a sizable boost if Kyle O’Quinn is eventually ruled out. Michael Beasley is a tough sell at this price point. On the season, Beasley averages 20 fantasy points per game with Porzingis active and 29 fantasy points per game when Porzingis is out.
Notable Injuries
Kyle O’Quinn (Questionable)
Kristaps Porzingis (Probable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (5 of 8)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.6 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.2 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,900 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 21.5 | -4.0 | 26.9 | -2.1 | 0.80 | 17.9% | 27 | 27 | 25 |
| Courtney Lee | $5,100 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 25.0 | -0.5 | 33.1 | 0.5 | 0.76 | 16.7% | 13 | 2 | 3 |
| Tim Hardaway | $5,900 | $6,300 | $13,300 | 30.1 | -3.0 | 33.0 | -3.7 | 0.91 | 22.3% | 8 | 13 | 25 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $8,700 | $8,300 | $15,700 | 40.3 | 0.5 | 33.0 | -3.1 | 1.22 | 27.6% | 16 | 25 | 16 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,200 | $6,000 | $12,900 | 29.0 | -1.2 | 25.3 | -1.8 | 1.15 | 18.7% | 19 | 15 | 7 |
| Michael Beasley | $5,900 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 21.9 | 7.1 | 19.7 | 5.6 | 1.11 | 24.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 15.3 | -0.9 | 20.7 | -2.6 | 0.74 | 16.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 19.7 | -2.5 | 17.0 | -1.2 | 1.16 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jarrett Jack, Kristaps Porzingis, Courtney Lee, Tim Hardaway (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway (Cash), Enes Kanter (if O’Quinn is out)
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have lost six of their last ten games and are in danger of falling out of the top eight in the Western Conference standings. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Knicks, who are ranked 16th in points allowed per game and 19th in defensive efficiency. With this game being played in Denver, we would expect their implied total to be high and that is certainly the case. They are projected to score 109.5 points, which is the second highest on the board.
Jamal Murray has flashed some serious upside this season and he draws an exploitable matchup against Jarrett Jack and the Knicks, who are ranked 23rd in efficiency and 26th in DvP against point guards. Murray will likely fly under the radar, which makes him an excellent tournament play. Will Barton is an elite play regardless, but would obviously see a big boost if Gary Harris is unable to suit up. Wilson Chandler would also see more minutes if Harris is ruled out. For now, treat Barton as an elite play and Chandler as a secondary play.
The Nuggets are going to switch up their starting lineup depending on the matchup. Mason Plumlee, Trey Lyles, and Chandler are all in the mix to start at power forward tonight. If I had to guess, I’d side with Plumlee since Denver will need size against the Knicks’ frontcourt. Plumlee is always productive while on the floor, but his minutes are extremely volatile. He usually doesn’t make a ton of sense in cash games, but he’s on my short list tonight, especially on DraftKings ($4,400). Lyles is back to playing 22-24 minutes rather than the 28-30 that he was seeing for a while. Nikola Jokic would be my favorite center to pay up for if Hassan Whiteside wasn’t playing tonight. I don’t mind using both centers on a site like DraftKings, but will have more exposure to Whiteside than I will to Jokic.
Notable Injuries
Kenneth Faried (Questionable)
Gary Harris (Questionable)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.0 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.5 (4 of 8)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.1 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $7,500 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 26.1 | 2.6 | 29.8 | 1.3 | 0.87 | 22.0% | 23 | 26 | 18 |
| Gary Harris | $7,200 | $6,300 | $12,800 | 30.3 | 2.0 | 34.9 | 0.3 | 0.87 | 18.6% | 6 | 13 | 21 |
| Will Barton | $6,500 | $5,800 | $11,400 | 29.1 | -0.4 | 31.1 | 0.4 | 0.93 | 20.7% | 24 | 15 | 16 |
| Mason Plumlee | $5,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 21.0 | 1.7 | 20.5 | 1.1 | 1.02 | 15.1% | 5 | 9 | 5 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,700 | $8,900 | $16,200 | 39.8 | 6.0 | 31.1 | 1.9 | 1.28 | 22.3% | 9 | 9 | 28 |
| Trey Lyles | $6,000 | $5,200 | $9,800 | 19.8 | -0.4 | 20.4 | 2.0 | 0.97 | 18.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,200 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 20.2 | -1.7 | 31.1 | -0.3 | 0.65 | 13.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Will Barton, Jamal Murray (GPP), Mason Plumlee (DK), Nikola Jokic (DK)
Secondary Plays – Jamal Murray (Cash), Mason Plumlee (FD), Nikola Jokic (FD), Wilson Chandler (bump to elite if Harris is out)
Minnesota Timberwolves at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM ET
| Minnesota Timberwolves | Golden State Warriors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 228.0 |  | Vegas Total | 228.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 12.0 | Vegas Spread | -12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.0 | Implied Team Total | 120.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Andrew Wiggins | Nemanja Bjelica | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 16 | 17 | 10 | 27 | 20 | DvP | 20 | 15 | 1 | 2 | 10 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 14 | 6 | 12 | 1 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 23 | 27 | 17 | 10 | 15 | |
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after losing to the Blazers in Portland last night. They have a tall task ahead of them, as they now take on the Warriors. The good news is that Minnesota has an implied total of 108 points, the bad news is that the spread is set at 12 points. Luckily, Tom Thibodeau is the coach. We have years of data that shows that he leaves his starters in the game longer than necessary in blowouts.
The big question mark tonight is the availability of Jimmy Butler. He has missed the last three games with a knee injury. The Wolves have done a nice job of keeping us in the loop, so hopefully we will get an update before lineups lock. If Butler is active, he immediately becomes a good tournament play. If he is ruled out — Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, and Nemanja Bjelica would all become elite plays in both cash games and tournaments. If we don’t know Butler’s status before lock, I will still be willing to play Teague and Wiggins in all formats, while Bjelica would become more of a tournament-only play.
Power forward is one of the toughest positions to fill out in our lineups, especially on FanDuel. I play Taj Gibson as much as just about anyone in DFS and more often than not, he comes through. He should play around 35 minutes tonight against a Warriors’ team that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to power forwards. Karl-Anthony Towns grades out as a nice play on FanDuel ($9,000), but again, I will be anchoring my lineups with Hassan Whiteside.
Notable Injuries
Jimmy Butler (Questionable)
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.9 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.0 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -0.9 (6 of 8)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.2 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.2 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (8 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.5 (3 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,000 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 30.3 | -4.7 | 33.6 | -1.1 | 0.90 | 20.2% | 11 | 16 | 14 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $6,500 | $7,000 | $14,500 | 29.4 | 4.4 | 36.1 | -0.7 | 0.81 | 21.5% | 4 | 17 | 6 |
| Nemanja Bjelica | $4,500 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 15.1 | 6.6 | 0.77 | 14.9% | 12 | 10 | 12 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,600 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 26.9 | 1.3 | 33.7 | 2.8 | 0.80 | 12.9% | 12 | 27 | 1 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $9,000 | $9,200 | $17,200 | 42.8 | -1.0 | 35.5 | -1.9 | 1.20 | 19.4% | 17 | 20 | 2 |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,700 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 15.3 | 0.7 | 18.8 | 0.2 | 0.81 | 22.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Gorgui Dieng | $3,700 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 16.4 | -1.9 | 18.2 | -1.2 | 0.90 | 14.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, Taj Gibson (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD)
Secondary Plays – Taj Gibson (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK), Nemanja Bjelica (bump to elite if Butler is out), Jimmy Butler (GPP – if active)
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors own the best record in basketball and get to face a Wolves’ team that is playing their second road game in as many nights. The Wolves have a decent defense, but we can throw that out the window. The Warriors are matchup-proof and the Wolves could be without their best defender in Jimmy Butler. Golden State comes into the game with an implied total of 120 points, which is the highest on the board and four points above their season average.
Stephen Curry has an elite true usage (29%) and a nice matchup against Jeff Teague. On the season, the Wolves are ranked 20th in efficiency and DvP against point guards. Given the pricing difference, I see Curry as an elite play on FanDuel ($9,900) and a secondary play on DraftKings ($10,300). Klay Thompson will draw the defense of Andrew Wiggins, which never hurts. As always, I’m fine using Thompson as a lineup filler, but he’s not a player that I try to force into my lineups. Dollar for dollar, I’ll take Andre Iguodala, who is priced under $4,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.
Kevin Durant is close to matchup-proof, but his fantasy appeal hinges on the availability of Jimmy Butler. If Butler is active, I will only use Durant in tournaments. If Butler is ruled out, we can fire up Durant as an elite play in all formats. Butler is an elite defender, while Nemanja Bjelica is mediocre at best. Draymond Green will spend a lot of his time at center, which means he’ll draw matchups against both Taj Gibson and Karl-Anthony Towns. These aren’t great matchups, but I love Green’s ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet.
Notable Injuries
Patrick McCaw (Out)
Klay Thompson (Probable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 115.9 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 120.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.1 (2 of 8)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.8 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,900 | $10,400 | $19,300 | 45.7 | -2.8 | 32.8 | 1.6 | 1.39 | 28.7% | 20 | 20 | 23 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,600 | $6,300 | $13,200 | 31.2 | -2.2 | 34.2 | 2.0 | 0.91 | 20.9% | 26 | 15 | 27 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,500 | $9,900 | $18,000 | 48.4 | -1.7 | 34.7 | 0.2 | 1.39 | 26.4% | 5 | 1 | 17 |
| Draymond Green | $8,100 | $7,500 | $13,600 | 36.9 | 1.9 | 32.4 | 3.8 | 1.14 | 16.8% | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,700 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 15.2 | 2.3 | 14.6 | 0.4 | 1.04 | 14.4% | 23 | 10 | 15 |
| Andre Iguodala | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.5 | -4.9 | 25.7 | -8.2 | 0.72 | 11.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David West | $4,300 | $3,700 | $7,500 | 18.0 | -0.7 | 13.3 | 1.8 | 1.35 | 19.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Nick Young | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,700 | 10.0 | -0.7 | 14.5 | -0.6 | 0.69 | 16.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |