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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 5th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-06 03:03:46

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Indiana Pacers
brooklynnba Vegas Total 218.5 indiananba Vegas Total 218.5
Vegas Spread 10.5 Vegas Spread -10.5
Team Total 104.0 Team Total 114.5
Pace +/- 1.2 Pace +/- 5.3
Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 18 20 16 23 16 DvP 30 30 30 28 30
DRPM 0.17 -0.79 -0.06 1.03 1.95 DRPM -0.75 -2.29 -2.72 2.19 -0.24

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets may not have a lot to gloat about with a record of 8-25, but they should feel good knowing that they are one of the DFS community’s favorite teams to see on the schedule. They play at the league’s fastest pace and are ranked dead last in points allowed per game. The Nets come into tonight’s game as large underdogs against the Pacers, but this game has plenty of fantasy appeal. The Pacers are another team that likes to push the pace and Brooklyn has an implied total of 104 points, which is good enough for the ninth highest in the slate.

Jeremy Lin is still without a timetable to return to the lineup, which means Isaiah Whitehead will continue to start at point guard. Unfortunately, he doesn’t play enough minutes or have a high enough usage rate to warrant fantasy consideration. Sean Kilpatrick has a 27.4% usage rate with Lin off the floor this season and after two subpar outings in a row, his price is all the way down to $4,400 on FanDuel. Even in a potential blowout, I see Kilpatrick as an elite play at that price point. With Rondae Hollis-Jefferson out, Bojan Bogdanovic and Joe Harris could both see some extra run tonight and are both interesting tournament fliers. Trevor Booker has been a per-minute monster this season and finally played big minutes the other night against the Jazz. Hopefully, we see his minutes go up moving forward. As always, Brook Lopez is too cheap on DraftKings. Myles Turner is a good defender, but the Pacers are ranked 16th against centers and 27th in rebounding differential (not that Lopez knows what a rebound is).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,600 $3,400 0.62 22.9 2.1 14.1 0.4 18.6% 0.6% 18 0.17
Sean Kilpatrick $4,400 $5,400 0.85 27.7 0.8 23.6 -6.8 24.7% -4.9% 20 -0.79
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,100 $4,000 0.74 26.9 -2.2 19.8 -4.4 20.6% -3.6% 16 -0.06
Trevor Booker $5,500 $5,600 0.97 27.7 -1.2 26.8 3.7 17.1% 4.4% 23 1.03
Brook Lopez $7,500 $6,700 1.14 29.1 3.0 33.1 -2.8 28.0% -2.9% 16 1.95
Joe Harris $3,500 $3,200 0.64 23.4 -1.5 15.0 -7.3 16.3% -2.6% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Sean Kilpatrick (FD), Brook Lopez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Bojan Bogdanovic (GPP), Brook Lopez (FD)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are looking for their fourth win in a row tonight, as they host the visiting Nets. While anything can happen on a random January night in the Association, they should be able to beat the Nets in a game where they are favored by 10.5 points. This is the best matchup in all of fantasy basketball, as the Nets are ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. A quick look at the Pacers’ implied total of 114.5 points is basically all you need to know, as it is 9.6 points above their season average.

The Nets are ranked 28th or worse in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor this season. Basically, all five starters are in play from the Pacers. The fact that their rotation is consistent night in and night out makes them a viable stack in both cash games and tournaments. Jeff Teague has cooled off a bit since Monta Ellis returned to the lineup, but the matchup more than makes up for a small usage loss to Ellis. Glenn Robinson has scored at least 17 fantasy points in three straight games, but has such a low usage rate with the starters that it’s hard to click his name in a full eight game slate. Paul George should demolish Bojan Bogdanovic on both ends of the floor. He is an elite play on FanDuel and more of a tournament play on DraftKings. Thaddeus Young has seen a significant bump in playing time over the last few weeks and has the added bonus of facing his former team. He is also an elite play on FanDuel. Myles Turner should have a big game against a Nets’ team that is ranked 26th in rebounding differential and dead last in blocked shots allowed per game. The only question that we need ask is how many Pacers are too many tonight?

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,800 $7,400 1.04 32.1 -0.3 33.4 -0.2 26.5% -1.1% 30 -0.75
Glenn Robinson $3,700 $3,800 0.58 22.5 5.4 13.0 7.7 12.3% -1.4% 30 -2.29
Paul George $7,900 $8,700 1.01 35.9 -1.5 36.1 1.1 26.9% 1.7% 30 -2.72
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,600 0.75 31.4 2.1 23.5 -1.9 16.2% -0.1% 28 2.19
Myles Turner $6,700 $6,800 1.03 29.8 2.2 30.7 4.3 19.4% -0.3% 30 -0.24
Monta Ellis $4,000 $3,700 0.66 29.3 -12.8 19.4 -3.3 17.7% -0.7% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP), Paul George (FD), Thaddeus Young (FD), Myles Turner

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (Cash), Paul George (DK), Thaddeus Young (DK), Glenn Robinson

Utah Jazz at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Toronto Raptors
utahnba Vegas Total 202.0 torontonba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 98.3 Team Total 103.8
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- -5.4
Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 14 1 11 19 14 DvP 2 2 3 2 3
DRPM 0.58 -2.39 0.58 1.40 -0.13 DRPM -1.45 1.19 0.44 2.26 4.96

Utah Jazz

The Jazz have won six of their last ten games and are 22-14 overall. Despite playing on the road against the second best team in the Eastern Conference, they are only 5.5-point underdogs. Toronto doesn’t rely on their defensive play as much as they used to, but they are still ranked 12th in points allowed per game and seventh in fantasy points allowed per game. The Jazz have an implied total of 98.3 points, which is the lowest in the slate and slightly less than their season average.

George Hill has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, as he is still in the league’s concussion protocol. The Jazz may get Dante Exum back tonight, although I still expect big minutes for Shelvin Mack, who is still only $3,800 on FanDuel. Rodney Hood has been inconsistent and is losing minutes to Joe Ingles. For now, he can be avoided in all formats. Gordon Hayward gets to square off against his former teammate, DeMarre Carroll in what shapes out to be a fairly tough matchup. At his price point, I’d rather use Paul George against the Nets. Derrick Favors hasn’t seen consistent minutes since coming back from injury, but he makes sense as a low owned tournament option. Rudy Gobert has one of the highest floors of any center in basketball, but there are a handful of centers that I like more in this slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Shelvin Mack $3,800 $4,700 0.66 23.9 4.1 15.7 2.1 22.0% 0.4% 14 0.58
Rodney Hood $4,300 $4,700 0.75 29.1 0.1 21.8 -2.8 23.5% 0.0% 1 -2.39
Gordon Hayward $7,700 $7,800 1.02 35.2 -0.7 36.0 0.6 28.0% -0.9% 11 0.58
Derrick Favors $4,500 $4,900 0.90 21.5 2.2 19.5 0.9 20.7% -1.6% 19 1.40
Rudy Gobert $7,400 $7,300 1.00 33.1 3.4 33.0 2.1 14.6% 1.0% 14 -0.13
Joe Ingles $3,900 $4,000 0.69 20.0 5.6 13.7 1.9 15.7% -0.2% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Shelvin Mack (FD), Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors (GPP)

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors may be favored tonight, but they have one of the worst possible matchups for fantasy production. No team in the NBA plays at a slower pace than the Jazz and there are very few that are better on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, Utah is ranked first in points allowed per game, fourth in defensive efficiency, and seventh in rebounding differential. The Raptors are only projected to score 103.8 points, which is the fifth lowest implied total in the slate and 6.6 points below their season average. The only reason Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are in play is the dynamic pricing of DraftKings. I still see Lowry as more of a secondary play at $7,800, but DeRozan is a borderline elite play at only $7,200. They should both play big minutes in a game that features a low spread.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,100 $7,800 1.06 36.9 -1.5 39.1 -2.2 26.9% 0.3% 2 -1.45
DeMar DeRozan $8,300 $7,200 1.13 35.3 -1.3 39.9 -7.0 34.1% 1.2% 2 1.19
DeMarre Carroll $3,500 $3,800 0.69 25.0 -7.1 17.1 -6.5 15.8% -0.4% 3 0.44
Pascal Siakam $3,500 $3,000 0.64 18.5 7.6 11.9 2.0 12.2% -3.5% 2 2.26
Jonas Valanciunas $5,100 $4,500 0.94 26.7 -2.6 25.2 -7.0 18.5% -3.2% 3 4.96
Patrick Patterson $4,000 $3,700 0.64 28.4 -19.8 18.2 -18.2 12.5% 5.5% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry (DK)

Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Detroit Pistons
charlottenba Vegas Total 205.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 100.8 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- 0.1
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 24 4 5 6 9 DvP 16 18 24 12 20
DRPM -1.72 0.48 0.27 1.19 1.69 DRPM -0.99 0.90 1.67 0.66 1.28

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets picked up a win over the Thunder last night at home and have a quick turn-around, as they play their second game in as many nights. They travel to Detroit to take on a Pistons’ defense that has been stout this season, ranking 11th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets are not nearly as good offensively on the road and the difficult matchup isn’t going to help. Charlotte has an implied total of only 100.8 points, which is the third lowest in the slate and 4.3 points below their season average.

With such a low projected point differential, there aren’t any players from the Hornets that stand out as elite plays. Kemba Walker draws the best matchup of the five starters though, as Reggie Jackson has a Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) of -1.72. As a whole, the Pistons have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards. Walker is still more of a secondary play tonight though, given the low team total and his road splits. Nicolas Batum draws a difficult matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Batum has been on fire over the last couple of weeks, but this is a good time to hop off of him at his elevated price point. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist has been a popular value play at small forward recently, but the matchup isn’t great and eventually Marco Belinelli will start cutting into his minutes. Cody Zeller passed through the concussion protocol yesterday, but is still listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Marvin Williams and Frank Kaminsky would become viable plays at power forward.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,100 $7,900 1.11 33.5 2.9 37.0 9.7 30.2% 0.2% 24 -1.72
Nicolas Batum $7,800 $7,700 0.97 34.8 1.1 33.7 5.1 22.9% 1.7% 4 0.48
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,600 $4,600 0.75 29.1 2.3 21.8 -3.4 14.5% -1.4% 5 0.27
Marvin Williams $4,300 $4,300 0.72 27.2 -0.2 19.6 -1.7 17.1% 1.2% 6 1.19
Roy Hibbert $3,500 $3,000 0.77 15.8 1.0 12.1 -5.9 14.4% -4.0% 9 1.69
Jeremy Lamb $4,000 $4,100 1.01 17.4 5.4 17.5 6.0 22.6% -5.8% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker, Frank Kaminsky (if Zeller is out)

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have lost eight of their last ten games and would be out of the playoffs if the regular season ended today. Their matchup against the Hornets may not look great on paper, but they get to play at home and Charlotte is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Pistons come into the game as 4-point favorites with an implied total of 104.8 points, which is 5.6 points above their season average. The Hornets aren’t usually a team that I am clamoring to target players against, but given the Pistons’ projected point differential, I’m on board tonight.

Reggie Jackson could end up being one of the highest owned point guards in the slate. He is coming off of 47 fantasy point outing against the Pacers and he has now scored at least 34 fantasy points in three straight games. The minute restriction is long gone, as Jackson has played at least 32 minutes in four straight games. Kemba Walker is a below-average defender and as a whole, the Hornets are ranked 16th against point guards. Jackson is an elite play in all formats. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Marcus Morris should both log heavy minutes tonight, but I’m not a fan of targeting mediocre wing players against the likes of Nicolas Batum and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Jon Leuer has been my go-to value play at power forward since entering the starting lineup and there is no reason for that to change tonight. He is still priced under $5,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Tobias Harris is actually averaging more fantasy points off the bench than he did as a starter. He is a great GPP play and he should have lower ownership just given the fact that he is coming off of the bench. Andre Drummond averages 7.2 more fantasy points per game at home than he does on the road. He could also see a few extra minutes tonight with Aron Baynes doubtful.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $6,400 $6,700 0.93 28.0 4.2 26.1 12.7 31.1% 1.8% 16 -0.99
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,700 $5,800 0.75 33.8 5.1 25.3 4.8 20.2% -0.3% 18 0.90
Marcus Morris $4,300 $4,200 0.68 31.6 -1.4 21.6 -4.2 19.7% -0.5% 24 1.67
Jon Leuer $4,900 $4,800 0.81 27.5 5.4 22.3 0.8 17.1% -1.3% 12 0.66
Andre Drummond $7,900 $7,800 1.18 30.3 5.0 35.6 7.7 22.2% 2.9% 20 1.28
Tobias Harris $5,900 $6,100 0.81 32.6 1.7 26.3 2.9 21.5% -0.7% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson, Jon Leuer, Tobias Harris (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris (Cash), Andre Drummond (Cash)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Houston Rockets
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 225.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 225.0
Vegas Spread 8.5 Vegas Spread -8.5
Team Total 108.3 Team Total 116.8
Pace +/- 2.4 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Montrezl Harrell
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 9 23 19 22 19 DvP 24 2 7 14 5
DRPM 1.23 -1.39 1.74 -0.79 0.18 DRPM -0.60 0.50 2.14 1.22 1.99

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Oklahoma City Thunder fell short against the Hornets last night and now have to play in the second half of back-to-back road games. While this is a tough spot for any team, the game should be filled with fantasy goodness if it stays close. The Thunder are listed as 8.5-point underdogs with the over/under set at 225 points. Houston has been a good matchup for fantasy production this season, as they are ranked 24th in points allowed per game and 15th in defensive efficiency. Even though the Thunder are underdogs tonight, they still have the fifth highest implied total on the board at 108.3 points.

Russell Westbrook aka NESWestbrook now has more rebounds (379) than assists (377). He is still averaging a triple-double and he gets to square off against James Harden, who is one of only two players that could beat him out for the MVP award. I have a ton of respect for Patrick Beverley defense, but I will target Westbrook in any game that features a decent pace. In his last four meetings against Beverley, Westbrook has scored 52, 48, 56, and 55 fantasy points. Victor Oladipo was close to a must-play at his price last night and he didn’t disappoint. His price has come up a bit across the industry, but he draws one of the best matchups in all of fantasy basketball. He draws the old Harden “defense.” Oladipo remains an elite play in all formats. Steven Adams has scored at least 26 fantasy points in six of his last seven games and is in play on FanDuel at a price of only $5,600. Enes Kanter is worth a look off the bench, as he has scored at least 29 fantasy points in six of his last eight games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,400 $12,300 1.65 34.6 -5.2 56.9 -14.0 46.0% -0.8% 9 1.23
Victor Oladipo $5,900 $6,000 0.77 34.1 -2.2 26.3 -0.9 20.9% -2.0% 23 -1.39
Andre Roberson $3,500 $3,500 0.57 30.7 -6.1 17.4 -4.3 10.6% 0.1% 19 1.74
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.63 21.3 2.7 13.5 -1.3 14.5% -2.4% 22 -0.79
Steven Adams $5,600 $5,600 0.86 29.5 0.6 25.2 4.7 16.4% -0.3% 19 0.18
Enes Kanter $5,300 $5,100 1.11 20.6 3.0 22.9 -0.6 25.2% -0.6% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams, Enes Kanter

Houston Rockets

The Rockets have won five games in a row and eight of their last ten. They have the fourth best record in the NBA. We all expected their offense to be good this season, but most experts had them pegged for a five or six seed in the Western Conference. They are clearly outperforming expectations. They draw a decent matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Rockets are listed as 8.5-point favorites with an implied total of 116.8 points, which is the highest in the slate and 2.2 points above their season average.

In their two meetings this season, the Thunder have held James Harden under 46 fantasy points both times. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that Harden tops that by the end of the third quarter. In his four games against the Thunder last year, Harden had 62, 59, 55, and 56 fantasy points. Harden and Westbrook should put on a show tonight and it makes a lot of sense to pair them together in the same lineup. If he is able to suit up (questionable), Patrick Beverley could see a few extra minutes tonight, as he will be tasked with defending Westbrook. Foul trouble is always a concern, but Beverley has scored at least 24 fantasy points in three of his last four games against the Thunder. Trevor Ariza is one of those players that is always in play, but that never seems to find his way into my lineups. Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are both viable tournament plays here. Both can catch fire at any point. Montrezl Harrell is still way too cheap on FanDuel ($4,700). He will likely be the chalk play at center, even though his matchup against Steven Adams is less than ideal.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,900 $5,300 0.84 30.7 2.1 25.9 4.0 16.0% -0.3% 24 -0.60
James Harden $12,000 $12,100 1.47 36.5 2.8 53.8 14.9 38.7% 2.2% 2 0.50
Trevor Ariza $5,900 $5,800 0.77 33.8 6.1 26.0 8.5 14.9% -1.1% 7 2.14
Ryan Anderson $5,500 $5,600 0.73 30.6 -0.4 22.4 -0.5 17.2% -2.1% 14 1.22
Montrezl Harrell $4,700 $5,500 0.90 17.7 14.3 15.9 15.1 18.0% -0.8% 5 1.99
Eric Gordon $5,800 $5,900 0.85 30.6 0.2 25.9 2.8 23.5% 1.9% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Montrezl Harrell (FD)

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Patrick Beverley, Ryan Anderson, Eric Gordon, Montrezl Harrell (DK)

Atlanta Hawks at New Orleans Pelicans – 8:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks New Orleans Pelicans
atlantanba Vegas Total 205.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 101.5 Team Total 104.0
Pace +/- 1.2 Pace +/- 1.5
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Buddy Hield Solomon Hill Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 28 10 23 27 20 DvP 29 23 13 10 3
DRPM 0.55 -2.52 0.59 0.87 2.75 DRPM -2.53 -0.36 2.81 3.65 2.45

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks picked up a win in Orlando last night and are looking to extend their winning streak to five games with a win tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Pelicans, who are ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 29th in rebounding differential. This game features a low spread of 2.5 points and the over/under is set at 205.5. The Hawks have an implied total of 101.5 points, which is actually slightly below their season average.

The Pelicans are ranked 20th or worse against every position on the floor, with the exception of shooting guard. Dennis Schroder has been a model of consistency over the last three weeks, scoring at least 32 fantasy points in six of his last eight games. His price is still affordable across the industry, but I see him as more of a tournament play tonight. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Reggie Jackson over Schroder. As I mentioned yesterday, I am going to keep avoiding the wing players on Atlanta. There are too many bodies splitting minutes. Paul Millsap draws a difficult individual matchup against Anthony Davis, but the Pelicans are ranked 27th against power forwards this season. He is a viable play on DraftKings at a price of only $7,400. Surprisingly enough, in six tail ends of back-to-back situations this season, Dwight Howard has averaged 32.7 minutes per game, which is 3.3 more than his average on the season. This could be a great spot to target Howard in tournaments on a night when no one will be on him.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,800 $6,600 0.94 31.1 3.7 29.3 3.0 29.7% 0.3% 28 0.55
Kent Bazemore $4,000 $4,200 0.74 27.4 1.8 20.2 -3.0 20.9% -1.3% 10 -2.52
Thabo Sefolosha $4,100 $4,000 0.76 25.8 -2.5 19.6 -6.7 14.3% 0.8% 23 0.59
Paul Millsap $8,200 $7,400 1.06 34.0 7.5 35.9 7.2 24.9% 2.1% 27 0.87
Dwight Howard $7,700 $7,500 1.16 29.4 5.1 34.0 -1.5 19.2% -7.3% 20 2.75
Kyle Korver $4,200 $4,100 0.61 28.3 2.9 17.4 9.3 14.7% 3.9% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap (DK), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder, Paul Millsap (FD), Dwight Howard (Cash)

New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans are playing their best basketball of the season. They have won six of their last ten games and are closing the gap between them and the Kings, who are currently in eighth place in the Western Conference. A matchup against the Hawks isn’t exactly ideal, but Atlanta is playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. Vegas doesn’t seem to mind the matchup tonight, as the Pelicans have an implied total of 104 points, which is the ninth highest in the slate and 1.7 points above their season average.

The Hawks are one of the easier matchups to break down. They are stout against opposing frontcourts and they struggle against opposing backcourts. Dennis Schroder has a DRPM of -2.53, which is ranked 424th out of 434 players in the NBA. This is basically a streaming situation where we just want to target the opposing point guard against the Hawks every single night. Even though Tyreke Evans is back in the mix and is taking away some of Jrue Holiday usage while on the floor together, it’s hard to pass on Holiday in this spot. He is an elite tournament play and a borderline cash game option. Evans is still playing fewer than 20 minutes per game, but could be worth a look on DraftKings at $4,400 if he is able to suit up (questionable). Anthony Davis draws a tough matchup against the Hawks, who are ranked tenth against power forwards and 12th in rebounding differential. Davis is playing at home though, where he averages 14.6 more fantasy points per game than he does on the road. I’m not opposed to using Davis in this spot, but he’s not as important to my lineup construction as Russell Westbrook and James Harden.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jrue Holiday $7,200 $7,200 0.99 31.0 3.8 30.7 5.0 26.8% -5.7% 29 -2.53
Buddy Hield $4,000 $3,800 0.70 19.7 7.4 13.7 9.3 21.3% -0.3% 23 -0.36
Solomon Hill $3,500 $3,100 0.52 27.7 -1.3 14.5 -3.1 10.8% 0.8% 13 2.81
Dante Cunningham $3,700 $4,000 0.56 24.9 8.3 14.0 3.8 11.0% -2.4% 10 3.65
Anthony Davis $11,100 $10,000 1.38 37.3 0.0 51.6 -7.4 31.0% -2.7% 3 2.45
Tyreke Evans $5,300 $4,400 1.08 15.0 2.7 16.3 6.0 29.9% 1.1% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis (DK), Jrue Holiday (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Anthony Davis (FD), Jrue Holiday (Cash), Tyreke Evans (DK)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious