NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 30th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Cleveland Cavaliers at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Cleveland Cavaliers | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214.5 |  | Vegas Total | 214.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jose Calderon | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Luke Babbitt | John Collins | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 28 | 22 | 27 | 21 | DvP | 22 | 26 | 14 | 11 | 19 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 26 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 25 | 23 | 27 | 20 | |
Cleveland Cavaliers
The Cavaliers have won nine games and have double-digit victories in four of their last five. Tonight they head to Atlanta to take on a Hawks’ team that is ranked 12th in pace of play, 24th in points allowed per game, and 26th in rebounding differential. Not only is this a pace-up game for Cleveland, but it’s an exploitable matchup as well. The Cavaliers have the highest implied total on the board at 111 points.
Even though the Cavaliers are in a great spot tonight, it’s hard to argue playing anyone outside of their big three. LeBron James is averaging 59 fantasy points over his last four games and has an elite true usage rate of 30%. Even in blowouts, he has been able to reach value. He currently has the highest floor/ceiling combination of any player in the slate and is a lock and load play in cash games. If this game stays competitive, James has 60+ fantasy point upside.
Dwyane Wade has played well recently, averaging 26 minutes and 28 fantasy points over his last four games. He’s viable in tournaments either way, but I will give him a small bump if Iman Shumpert is unable to suit up. Kyle Korver is a decent GPP flier at low ownership, but there are better value plays available. Kevin Love is coming off of a huge game against the Heat and will take on a decimated Hawks’ frontcourt. Love is an elite play on FanDuel, where choices are limited.
Notable Injuries
Tristan Thompson (Out)
Derrick Rose (Out)
Iman Shumpert (Questionable)
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.8 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.0 (1 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (5 of 10)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (26 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.3 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jose Calderon | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,100 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 0.53 | 10.6% | 63.5% | 17 | 30 |
| J.R. Smith | $4,100 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 16.7 | 2.5 | 30.8 | 3.9 | 0.54 | 12.4% | 48.5% | 28 | 3 |
| LeBron James | $12,000 | $11,700 | $21,800 | 53.7 | 5.3 | 37.0 | -3.9 | 1.45 | 29.7% | 65.7% | 22 | 22 |
| Jae Crowder | $3,900 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 15.1 | -3.8 | 25.9 | -2.2 | 0.58 | 13.4% | 52.8% | 27 | 12 |
| Kevin Love | $7,800 | $8,000 | $14,500 | 35.5 | 0.2 | 29.4 | -1.2 | 1.21 | 22.3% | 61.0% | 21 | 26 |
| Dwyane Wade | $6,000 | $5,600 | $10,300 | 24.9 | 3.2 | 23.5 | 2.8 | 1.06 | 23.0% | 48.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Kyle Korver | $3,700 | $3,600 | $6,800 | 16.1 | 0.8 | 21.6 | 3.6 | 0.75 | 15.2% | 69.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (DK), Dwyane Wade, Kyle Korver
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks frontcourt continues to get thinner and thinner. Mike Muscala has been out for an extended period of time and now Dewayne Dedmon has joined him. While the Cavaliers’ defense has improved in recent weeks, they are still ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. They have the talent to be an average defense, but are still an exploitable matchup for opponents. The Hawks have an implied total of 103.5 points, which is the fourth highest of the slate.
Dennis Schroder nearly has as high of a true usage rate as LeBron James, he just doesn’t have the same upside when it comes to peripheral statistics. If the Hawks are going to keep this game close, they will need a strong game from their point guard. Schroder is an excellent tournament play, although the price is high enough that I don’t mind looking elsewhere in cash games. Kent Bazemore is affordable on FanDuel ($5,100) and he loves going up against LeBron, averaging 36 fantasy points in their last four meetings.
Taurean Prince is the Hawks’ best shot of slowing LeBron down, so we could see a nice minutes bump. He played 36 minutes in their first meeting and I wouldn’t be surprised to a similar number tonight. I expect the ownership to be low, which makes him a very interesting tournament play. I don’t have much interest in Luke Babbitt, but Marco Belinelli is a nice tournament play off the bench. He could see a few extra minutes if the Hawks decide to play small with all of the injuries to their frontcourt.
John Collins has been the most productive big man for the Hawks this season and he’s now being thrust into a 30+ minute role a night. He does have a propensity to get into foul trouble (averaging six fouls per 36 minutes), but the upside is massive. He is averaging 1.06 FP/min this season and the Cavaliers have not had the best interior defense. Collins is one of the few plays that I am locking into my lineups tonight.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Out)
Dewayne Dedmon (Out)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.2 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (4 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (4 of 10)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.5 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.7 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.4 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $7,400 | $7,500 | $13,400 | 33.8 | -1.5 | 32.1 | -0.8 | 1.05 | 28.9% | 52.9% | 22 | 9 |
| Kent Bazemore | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 27.8 | -6.6 | 28.2 | -2.5 | 0.99 | 20.6% | 51.4% | 26 | 25 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,400 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 26.0 | -5.5 | 31.0 | -2.7 | 0.84 | 17.3% | 52.6% | 14 | 23 |
| Luke Babbitt | $3,500 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 12.9 | -11.4 | 19.6 | -12.4 | 0.66 | 13.7% | 61.4% | 11 | 27 |
| John Collins | $5,900 | $5,500 | $10,800 | 24.3 | 2.8 | 22.9 | 6.4 | 1.06 | 17.5% | 61.2% | 19 | 20 |
| Marco Belinelli | $4,800 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 21.4 | 4.1 | 25.8 | 0.8 | 0.83 | 19.2% | 56.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Kent Bazemore (FD), Taurean Prince (GPP), John Collins
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (Cash), Kent Bazemore (DK), Taurean Prince (Cash), Marco Belinelli
Philadelphia 76ers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET
| Philadelphia 76ers | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 211.5 |  | Vegas Total | 211.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 9.0 | Vegas Spread | -9.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.3 | Implied Team Total | 110.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 4.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ben Simmons | J.J. Redick | Robert Covington | Dario Saric | Amir Johnson | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Marcus Morris | Al Horford | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 5 | 2 | 15 | 1 | 14 | DvP | 15 | 25 | 27 | 15 | 27 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 2 | DRPM Rat. | 1 | 21 | 1 | 27 | 5 | |
Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers picked up a nice win over the Wizards last night, but will be without one their superstars tonight. Joel Embiid will not play in the second half of the back-to-back and they will also be without T.J. McConnell. This opens up a ton of usage and nearly 60 minutes in the rotation. The Sixers draw an awful matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked first in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Philadelphia has an implied total of only 101.3 points, which is nearly eight points below their season average.
I have mixed feelings when it comes to the Sixers. If they can keep the game close, there will be a lot of fantasy production to go around without Embiid in the lineup. On the other hand, without Embiid, they may struggle to keep the game close. Keep that in mind when building your lineups tonight. The upside is there for the Sixers, but so is the risk. We will start with Ben Simmons, who is coming off of a 65 fantasy point outing against Washington. Simmons sees a 5% usage boost without Embiid on the floor and will be the reason if the Sixers can keep this game close.
Robert Covington sees a nice usage and FP/min boost without Embiid on the floor. In a difficult matchup against the Celtics’ wings, he should get overlooked in tournaments. J.J. Redick also sees a nice boost in per-minute production and is also viable in tournaments. With McConnell out, Covington and Redick could both end up playing 35 minutes. As far as the frontcourt goes, Dario Saric is the preferred target. He’ll see a big minute bump and he should be heavily involved offensively. Richaun Holmes and Amir Johnson are best suited as GPP darts.
Notable Injuries
Joel Embiid (Out)
T.J. McConnell (Out)
Justin Anderson (Out)
Philadelphia 76ers Offense
Points Per Game: 109.1 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (6 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -7.8 (10 of 10)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.8 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.3 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.5 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Simmons | $9,900 | $9,300 | $17,600 | 46.0 | 3.0 | 35.4 | 2.9 | 1.30 | 24.9% | 52.7% | 5 | 5 |
| J.J. Redick | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 24.8 | -2.3 | 33.1 | -0.4 | 0.75 | 18.0% | 56.7% | 2 | 1 |
| Robert Covington | $6,200 | $6,200 | $13,500 | 30.3 | -5.6 | 31.4 | -0.6 | 0.96 | 16.1% | 62.7% | 15 | 2 |
| Dario Saric | $5,500 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 22.4 | 7.7 | 27.9 | 2.8 | 0.80 | 16.3% | 49.6% | 1 | 23 |
| Amir Johnson | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,900 | 16.1 | 1.2 | 15.0 | -0.4 | 1.07 | 12.6% | 53.0% | 14 | 2 |
| Jerryd Bayless | $3,700 | $3,400 | $6,400 | 16.6 | -1.4 | 27.8 | -4.7 | 0.60 | 12.9% | 57.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot | $3,500 | $3,200 | $6,100 | 11.1 | 2.0 | 16.3 | -0.7 | 0.68 | 17.2% | 53.4% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ben Simmons, Dario Saric
Secondary Plays – Robert Covington, J.J. Redick
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have been the best team in the East this season and it’s not debatable. The fact that they are only 9-point favorites against a Sixers’ team that is missing their most impactful player is a bit of a head scratcher. Don’t get me wrong, from a DFS perspective, I want this game to stay close, but the spread seems a bit low. This is a favorable matchup for Boston. The Sixers are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game this season and that’s with Joel Embiid on the floor. Boston has the second highest implied total at 110.3 points.
It’ll be interesting to see how the Sixers match up against the Celtics tonight. They have a lot of options, but I would expect Robert Covington or Ben Simmons to defend Kyrie Irving. It’s not a great matchup for Kyrie either way, but he is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum both stand out as nice plays on FanDuel, but are a bit overpriced on DraftKings. This seems to be a common theme with these two.
Marcus Morris has been productive on a per-minute basis (0.98 FP/min) and is no longer on a minute restriction. He’s unlikely to play more than 26-28 minutes, but he offers nice value on FanDuel, where we have play two power forwards. Al Horford could take advantage of a Sixers’ frontcourt that is missing their best defender, but Amir Johnson is no slouch defensively. I see Horford and Marcus Smart as large-field tournament plays tonight.
Notable Injuries
None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.3 (2 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 6.5 (1 of 10)
Matchup vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.5 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.8 (4 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,200 | $8,400 | $15,400 | 38.1 | -1.1 | 31.6 | 0.5 | 1.21 | 29.2% | 58.1% | 15 | 1 |
| Jaylen Brown | $5,900 | $6,100 | $11,500 | 27.5 | -5.2 | 32.2 | -1.8 | 0.85 | 18.6% | 55.7% | 25 | 21 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,100 | $5,900 | $11,400 | 26.3 | -2.9 | 30.6 | 1.5 | 0.86 | 15.5% | 63.0% | 27 | 1 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,600 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 23.2 | -1.7 | 23.6 | -0.4 | 0.98 | 21.5% | 54.3% | 15 | 27 |
| Al Horford | $7,300 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 33.5 | 0.3 | 32.4 | -0.8 | 1.03 | 16.9% | 63.0% | 27 | 5 |
| Marcus Smart | $6,200 | $5,200 | $11,500 | 26.2 | 0.4 | 30.8 | 0.4 | 0.85 | 19.0% | 43.2% | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $3,800 | $4,100 | $8,100 | 20.5 | 1.9 | 23.5 | -1.5 | 0.87 | 19.1% | 50.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris (FD)
Secondary Plays – Marcus Morris (DK), Jaylen Brown (FD), Jayson Tatum (FD), Al Horford (GPP)
Chicago Bulls at Denver Nuggets – 9:00 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Denver Nuggets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.0 |  | Vegas Total | 209.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 11.0 | Vegas Spread | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.0 | Implied Team Total | 110.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Juan Hernangomez | Kenneth Faried | Nikola Jokic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 28 | 7 | 20 | 29 | 1 | DvP | 27 | 21 | 21 | 20 | 13 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 22 | 2 | 21 | 20 | 1 | DRPM Rat. | 5 | 10 | 26 | 16 | 22 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls are looking to snap a six game losing streak, but they’ll have their hands full as 11-point underdogs on the road against the Nuggets. This isn’t a bad matchup for fantasy production, but we do have to worry about a potential blowout. Chicago comes into the game with an implied total of 99 points, which is 4.4 points above their season average.
Kris Dunn has the best matchup of the five starters, as he takes on a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 28th against point guards. Jamal Murray and Emmanuel Mudiay are both below-average defenders. Dunn can fill up all areas of the stat sheet and we’ve seen him play 32-34 minutes when it’s going well. He’s an excellent tournament play, but a risky cash game target. David Nwaba is expected to play tonight, which will likely cut into the minutes of Justin Holiday and/or Denzel Valentine. I want to see how this rotation shakes out before targeting any of them.
Nikola Jokic is one of the best defenders in all of basketball, which is a big reason why the Nuggets are ranked first against centers. I have no interest in Robin Lopez, but Lauri Markkanen and Bobby Portis are both interesting tournament plays. Power forwards have had plenty of success against Denver and both players should come in at low ownership. I slightly prefer Portis, who is cheaper and who could potentially see some garbage time.
Notable Injuries
David Nwaba (Probable)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 94.6 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.0 (9 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 4.4 (2 of 10)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (17 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.2 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.2 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $6,500 | $6,000 | $12,200 | 27.1 | -1.4 | 26.8 | 0.4 | 1.01 | 23.8% | 47.3% | 28 | 22 |
| Justin Holiday | $6,000 | $5,800 | $12,100 | 27.2 | -0.4 | 34.2 | -1.9 | 0.80 | 19.6% | 49.3% | 7 | 2 |
| Denzel Valentine | $6,300 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 23.2 | 2.3 | 28.7 | 1.7 | 0.81 | 17.8% | 50.3% | 20 | 21 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,800 | $6,400 | $12,600 | 28.3 | -5.7 | 30.6 | -1.4 | 0.92 | 19.7% | 52.5% | 29 | 20 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,000 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 23.8 | -2.8 | 29.7 | -1.7 | 0.80 | 19.1% | 51.9% | 1 | 1 |
| Bobby Portis | $4,300 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 24.4 | -2.4 | 22.4 | 0.1 | 1.09 | 21.7% | 55.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Jerian Grant | $4,400 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 21.5 | 1.7 | 25.9 | -0.2 | 0.83 | 19.4% | 52.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (Cash), Bobby Portis (Cash), Lauri Markkanen (GPP)
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have one of the highest implied totals on the board tonight, as they host the visiting Bulls. The concern here isn’t the matchup, it’s the potential for a blowout. The Bulls have not been competitive in many games this season and the Nuggets are listed as 11-point favorites. Even though Chicago plays at a slow pace, they are ranked 28th in defensive efficiency and 23rd in rebounding differential this season.
I feel like we have learned our lesson when it comes to the Nuggets’ point guard situation. Right when we think we know what the rotation will look like, it flips the other way. With that said, Jamal Murray has played at least 33 minutes in four of his last eight games. Kris Dunn is a solid defender, but the Bulls are ranked 27th against point guards as a team. Murray deserves consideration in tournaments and potentially in cash games if you are more risk tolerant.
Gary Harris and Will Barton should both be locked into 30+ minutes tonight with Wilson Chandler out. I slightly prefer Barton solely due to the fact that he plays almost all of the garbage time for Denver. If the game gets out of hand, he’ll likely see more minutes than Harris. Juan Hernangomez played 28 minutes in his spot start the other night and stands out as one of the better value plays on the board. We never quite know how many minutes Kenneth Faried is going to play, but he has great upside at his price point. Nikola Jokic seems to be consistently overpriced. I’m as big of a fan as any, but it’s hard to pay over $9,000 for a player that only averages 40 fantasy points per game.
Notable Injuries
Wilson Chandler (Out)
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.3 (14 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (3 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 (3 of 10)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.7 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (28 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.2 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $5,100 | $5,000 | $9,500 | 21.5 | -0.8 | 26.8 | 1.7 | 0.80 | 22.4% | 52.9% | 27 | 5 |
| Gary Harris | $6,100 | $5,600 | $12,200 | 26.2 | 3.7 | 32.4 | 2.6 | 0.81 | 16.2% | 61.6% | 21 | 10 |
| Juan Hernangomez | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,300 | 9.5 | 7.0 | 13.8 | 7.8 | 0.69 | 12.9% | 53.8% | 21 | 26 |
| Kenneth Faried | $4,000 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 11.5 | 10.9 | 12.6 | 12.0 | 0.91 | 15.5% | 59.2% | 20 | 16 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,500 | $9,100 | $18,700 | 40.3 | 0.1 | 30.1 | 0.6 | 1.34 | 20.9% | 60.9% | 13 | 22 |
| Will Barton | $6,300 | $6,500 | $12,100 | 27.4 | -0.3 | 29.3 | 0.9 | 0.93 | 20.0% | 56.8% | N/A | N/A |
| Mason Plumlee | $3,800 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 16.9 | -2.3 | 16.6 | 1.0 | 1.02 | 15.7% | 51.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Juan Hernangomez, Kenneth Faried (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Gary Harris, Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried (Cash)
Milwaukee Bucks at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Portland Trail Blazers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.0 |  | Vegas Total | 203.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 3.0 | Vegas Spread | -3.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 103.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Eric Bledsoe | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Pat Connaughton | Noah Vonleh | Jusuf Nurkic | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 8 | 9 | 3 | 4 | DvP | 8 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 16 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 4 | DRPM Rat. | 19 | 27 | 25 | 16 | 11 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks-Blazers game features a lot of big names, but a fairly low total at 203 points. These are two slow paced teams that are both capable of playing well on the defensive end of the floor. For Milwaukee, they have the second worst matchup on the board behind the Sixers. On the season, the Blazers are ranked third or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Bucks’ implied total is three points below their season average.
The Blazers are ranked ninth or better in fantasy points allowed to every position this season. I’m more bearish on the Bucks than most will be tonight. Eric Bledsoe price is up and his matchup isn’t great. He makes sense as a fade in both cash games and tournaments. Khris Middleton is my favorite point-per-dollar play here, but I don’t consider him a core target. He is affordable, has a high usage rate, and is always under-owned in DFS.
Giannis Antetokounmpo is matchup-proof at this point, but it’s hard to justify playing him over LeBron James in tournaments. Unless there is a wide gap in ownership, I prefer James over Giannis in tournaments as well. The matchup is better and he has a higher floor/ceiling combination. I have no interest in John Henson, as the Blazers have one of the stingiest frontcourts in basketball.
Notable Injuries
Matthew Dellavedova (Questionable)
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.9 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (8 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -2.9 (8 of 10)
Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.8 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.4 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.6 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Bledsoe | $7,500 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 32.4 | 10.2 | 29.7 | 4.1 | 1.09 | 25.5% | 50.7% | 6 | 16 |
| Tony Snell | $3,800 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.3 | 0.6 | 32.1 | -2.1 | 0.54 | 9.3% | 70.9% | 8 | 17 |
| Khris Middleton | $6,600 | $6,500 | $12,900 | 34.1 | -0.9 | 36.8 | -1.0 | 0.93 | 22.6% | 53.8% | 9 | 13 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,800 | $11,100 | $19,600 | 55.8 | -3.8 | 37.3 | -2.5 | 1.50 | 29.5% | 61.7% | 3 | 7 |
| John Henson | $5,400 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 21.9 | 4.1 | 22.7 | 2.4 | 0.97 | 12.5% | 56.1% | 4 | 4 |
| Malcolm Brogdon | $5,300 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 24.4 | -2.9 | 30.7 | -4.3 | 0.79 | 18.1% | 58.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo
Portland Trail Blazers
The Blazers have plenty of talent on offense, but the story of their season has been on the defensive end of the floor. They are no longer a team that tries to get into shootouts. They slow the pace of the game down and wear on their opponents. Tonight’s matchup against the Bucks is mediocre at best. Milwaukee is ranked 13th in points allowed per game and 18th in defensive efficiency. The Blazers’ implied total of 103 points is nearly identical to their season average.
Even though the Bucks’ guards don’t look great on paper (DRPM), Milwaukee is ranked eighth against point guards and sixth against shooting guards this season. Damian Llillard is in play thanks to a cheap price tag on DraftKings ($8,500), but an easier fade on FanDuel. I slightly prefer C.J. McCollum over Khris Middleton if you need a shooting guard and are trying to decide between the two. Middleton is not a great defender and McCollum has played well at home throughout his career.
I have no interest in the Blazers’ forwards. With Al-Farouq Aminu back in the mix, there are too many bodies splitting minutes at the three and the four. I do have some interest in Jusuf Nurkic, who is averaging 41 fantasy points over his last four games. His minutes haven’t been as high as we would have liked, but he has played at least 30 minutes in three straight games. He draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Bucks are ranked 20th against centers and 25th in rebounding differential.
Notable Injuries
Al-Farouq Aminu (Probable)
Portland Trail Blazers Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.0 (5 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (6 of 10)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.3 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damian Lillard | $9,100 | $8,500 | $15,600 | 42.7 | 2.4 | 36.4 | 1.6 | 1.17 | 29.6% | 57.1% | 8 | 19 |
| C.J. McCollum | $6,700 | $6,700 | $13,000 | 32.8 | -5.0 | 36.3 | 0.6 | 0.90 | 23.0% | 57.4% | 6 | 27 |
| Pat Connaughton | $4,100 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 11.2 | 5.6 | 19.4 | 2.6 | 0.58 | 12.4% | 63.5% | 4 | 25 |
| Noah Vonleh | $4,300 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 18.3 | 3.3 | 22.8 | 4.0 | 0.80 | 8.9% | 58.7% | 10 | 16 |
| Jusuf Nurkic | $7,400 | $6,700 | $13,300 | 30.1 | 10.5 | 28.0 | 1.8 | 1.07 | 24.5% | 48.7% | 20 | 11 |
| Evan Turner | $3,600 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 18.3 | -1.9 | 26.4 | -2.0 | 0.69 | 16.1% | 45.7% | N/A | N/A |
| Ed Davis | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,100 | 17.8 | 0.6 | 18.5 | -2.1 | 0.96 | 11.1% | 51.7% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Damian Lillard (DK), Jusuf Nurkic
Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (FD), C.J. McCollum
Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Los Angeles Clippers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199.0 |  | Vegas Total | 199.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.5 | Vegas Spread | 2.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.8 | Implied Team Total | 98.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.7 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Jonas Jerebko | Derrick Favors | Projected Starters | Austin Rivers | Lou Williams | Wesley Johnson | Montrezl Harrell | DeAndre Jordan | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 7 | 27 | 26 | 16 | 26 | DvP | 2 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 25 | 29 | 9 | 7 | 11 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 14 | 6 | 18 | 6 | |
Utah Jazz
These have been two of the most injury-plagued teams in the NAB this season. The Jazz have managed to win three games in a row without their star center Rudy Gobert. Tonight they head to Los Angeles to take on the Clippers. While the total is below 200 points, this game has fantasy appeal thanks to all of the injuries. The Jazz have an implied total of 100.8 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Ricky Rubio minutes have been down recently, but some of that has to do with the number of blowouts that the Jazz have been involved in. Rubio played 29 minutes in his last outing and should see a similar allotment tonight. We have to like his price and his matchup against the likes of Austin Rivers and Lou Williams. Donovan Mitchell has played well recently and should fly under the radar in tournaments. His floor has been pretty incredible for a rookie — he’s scored at least 24 fantasy points in nine straight games.
Rodney Hood is currently listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, that would mean more minutes for both Mitchell and Joe Ingles. Ingles has been quiet recently, but wings have had a ton of success against the Clippers this season. I won’t be chasing the 30 fantasy point outing from Jonas Jerebko. Both teams could end up playing small in this one. Derrick Favors feels expensive, but is averaging 37 fantasy points per game in his last four. His minutes and usage are secure as long as Gobert is out.
Notable Injuries
Rodney Hood (Questionable)
Raul Neto (Questionable)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 101.5 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.8 (7 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (7 of 10)
Matchup vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.2 (16 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (12 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.7 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $5,500 | $5,700 | $11,800 | 27.4 | -2.8 | 28.9 | -4.4 | 0.95 | 22.7% | 52.8% | 7 | 25 |
| Donovan Mitchell | $6,800 | $6,900 | $13,400 | 26.9 | 4.0 | 28.3 | 2.4 | 0.95 | 24.7% | 48.5% | 27 | 29 |
| Joe Ingles | $5,600 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 23.4 | -3.1 | 29.4 | -0.9 | 0.79 | 15.4% | 61.7% | 26 | 9 |
| Jonas Jerebko | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 12.3 | 6.2 | 15.3 | 5.4 | 0.80 | 13.2% | 64.0% | 16 | 7 |
| Derrick Favors | $7,400 | $6,600 | $12,200 | 26.9 | 10.2 | 27.9 | 1.3 | 0.96 | 17.5% | 59.7% | 26 | 11 |
| Rodney Hood | $5,900 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 24.3 | 4.3 | 28.3 | 0.4 | 0.86 | 24.6% | 55.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Thabo Sefolosha | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 18.3 | -1.4 | 20.6 | -1.7 | 0.89 | 14.1% | 59.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio
Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Derrick Favors
Los Angeles Clippers
The Clippers don’t have the best matchup on paper, but the Jazz haven’t been nearly as effective without their defensive anchor, Rudy Gobert. This game should still have a very slow pace, but with all of the injuries, I’m not expecting either team to play shut down defense. The Clippers have an implied total of 98.3 points, which is the lowest on the board and eight points below their season average. While that looks scary, keep in mind that they are playing without three of their five starters.
If we run the CourtIQ tool with Blake Griffin, Danilo Gallinari, and Patrick Beverley off the floor, we can see that Lou Williams has a 37% usage rate and a FP/min of 1.12. It feels insane paying $8,000 for Sweet Lou on FanDuel, but he deserves consideration in tournaments. On DraftKings ($7,300), he is a core play for me even in this difficult matchup. He is basically the entire offense right now and is playing 35+ minutes a game. Austin Rivers will also be heavily involved offensively, but I slightly prefer Ricky Rubio and Jamal Murray at similar price points.
Wesley Johnson is one of those players that seems to breakout when we least expect it. There are a lot of value plays available tonight, which will leave Johnson under-owned in all formats. I see an opportunity to play 35+ minutes here, so I’ll buy some shares in tournaments. Montrezl Harrell is expected to start at power forward, with Sam Dekker seeing more minutes off the bench. I expect them to both be popular, but I may pass. DeAndre Jordan doesn’t have a true point guard to pass him the ball and he has a difficult matchup against Derrick Favors.
Notable Injuries
Blake Griffin (Out)
Danilo Gallinari (Out)
Los Angeles Clippers Offense
Points Per Game: 105.9 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.3 (10 of 10)
Projected Point Differential: -7.7 (9 of 10)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.8 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.8 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | DRPM Rat. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Rivers | $6,000 | $5,500 | $11,600 | 24.0 | 4.6 | 33.5 | 2.4 | 0.72 | 18.9% | 48.3% | 2 | 7 |
| Lou Williams | $8,000 | $7,300 | $13,400 | 28.8 | 5.7 | 28.9 | 5.5 | 1.00 | 25.1% | 59.7% | 4 | 14 |
| Wesley Johnson | $4,700 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 18.6 | 3.8 | 24.7 | 7.4 | 0.75 | 11.2% | 59.1% | 8 | 6 |
| Montrezl Harrell | $4,400 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 9.8 | -0.4 | 8.5 | 1.5 | 1.16 | 16.7% | 59.0% | 5 | 18 |
| DeAndre Jordan | $7,400 | $7,100 | $13,100 | 30.9 | -3.2 | 32.4 | 0.0 | 0.95 | 10.0% | 66.4% | 2 | 6 |
| Sam Dekker | $3,800 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 9.5 | 2.4 | 0.79 | 14.5% | 46.4% | N/A | N/A |