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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 14th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-02-15 02:14:14

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Toronto Raptors at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Chicago Bulls
torontonba Vegas Total 205.5 chicagonba Vegas Total 205.5
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Team Total 106.0 Team Total 99.5
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Jakob Poeltl Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Michael Carter-Williams Jerian Grant Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 16 12 10 16 Adj. DvP 8 3 13 16 12
DRPM 0.03 0.08 1.56 1.89 0.22 DRPM 0.71 -2.49 0.58 0.91 0.53

Toronto Raptors

First of all, Happy Valentine’s Day everyone. This may not be your favorite holiday, but if you are lucky enough to have a significant other that puts up with you and your DFS, take the time to do something special for them today. The Raptors were hit by Cupid’s arrow, as they fell head over heals for Serge Ibaka. So much so, that they acquired him in a trade for Terrence Ross and their 2017 first round pick. Ibaka is not expected to play tonight, but this is definitely a big move for Toronto. Tonight the Raptors head to Chicago to take on a Bulls’ team that would likely be the biggest mess in the NBA if it wasn’t for the Knicks. Toronto comes into the game as 6.5-point favorites with an implied total of 106 points. Even though it’s one of the lowest team totals in the slate, the Raptors are one of my favorite teams to target tonight.

Kyle Lowry draws an excellent matchup against the likes of Jerian Grant, Rajon Rondo, and Michael Carter-Williams. I like his chances in all three of those matchups and as a whole, the Bulls are ranked 22nd against point guards this season. Lowry’s price is affordable across the industry and he plays as many minutes as any player in the NBA. I have him ranked as my second best point guard overall, right behind Kyrie Irving. DeMar DeRozan is clearly the top shooting guard in the slate, but he may have to deal with the defense of Jimmy Butler. Given the lack of options, DeRozan is still firmly in play, but this would typically be a fade in a bigger slate. With Terrence Ross shipped out of town, DeMarre Carroll should push for 30+ minutes tonight, while Cory Joseph and Norman Powell could see some extra run off the bench. Patrick Patterson has missed the last four games and is currently listed as questionable. If he is unable to suit up, give a small boost to Jonas Valanciunas and Lucas Nogueira.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,500 $8,100 1.06 37.6 -0.6 39.9 -6.7 27.1% -2.1% 22 0.03
DeMar DeRozan $8,700 $8,000 1.13 35.6 2.2 40.4 -1.3 34.2% -2.1% 16 0.08
DeMarre Carroll $4,200 $4,200 0.68 26.8 4.3 18.2 5.5 15.8% -2.0% 12 1.56
Jakob Poeltl $3,500 $3,000 0.63 10.5 4.3 6.6 3.4 10.6% -1.9% 10 1.89
Jonas Valanciunas $5,900 $5,400 0.98 27.2 3.4 26.6 3.3 18.8% -0.1% 16 0.22
Lucas Nogueira $3,900 $3,400 0.79 21.7 4.5 17.2 -0.6 9.8% -2.2% 16 N/A
Cory Joseph $3,500 $3,200 0.74 22.4 -1.9 16.5 -1.3 20.5% 1.6% 22 N/A
Norman Powell $3,900 $3,900 0.70 17.1 -8.3 12.0 -7.8 18.8% -1.8% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, DeMarre Carroll

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas, Norman Powell

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have lost three games in a row and six of their last ten. They have fallen all the way down to seventh place in the Eastern Conference and could fall out of the playoff picture altogether if they can’t right the ship. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked between 11th and 18th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Bulls have an implied total of only 99.5 points, which is the lowest in the slate. Even though their team total suggests a fade, all of the injuries to the Bulls open up some nice value plays. Dwyane Wade, Nikola Mirotic, and Paul Zipser have all been ruled out of tonight’s game.

I say this often, but there is no reason for you to not be using the CourtIQ tool here on RotoGrinders. If we run the query with Wade and Mirotic off the floor, we see that has a 33% usage rate and sees a FP/min boost of 0.15. Butler has been dealing with a heel injury, but is expected to play tonight. The injury should help keep his ownership down and while I wish he was a little cheaper, he is still firmly in play for tournaments. The CourtIQ tool also shows that Michael Carter-Williams has a 27% usage rate with Wade and Mirotic off the floor. MCW is expected to draw the start at shooting guard and he has scored at least 40 fantasy points in two of his last five games. With Nikola Mirotic out tonight, we could see a few extra minutes for Taj Gibson, who is priced to move at $4,600 on FanDuel. Robin Lopez is also worth a look if you don’t want to pay up for DeMarcus Cousins at center. Rajon Rondo, Bobby Portis, and Doug McDermott are all GPP fliers.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Michael Carter-Williams $4,600 $5,200 0.84 22.0 -1.0 18.5 -4.9 23.3% 3.0% 8 0.71
Jerian Grant $3,600 $3,600 0.67 16.2 5.5 10.8 4.6 17.7% -3.8% 3 -2.49
Jimmy Butler $9,300 $8,600 1.14 36.5 -6.2 41.5 -6.9 29.3% 4.8% 13 0.58
Taj Gibson $4,600 $5,000 0.84 27.3 -5.2 23.1 -7.0 19.0% 1.7% 16 0.91
Robin Lopez $4,800 $4,800 0.78 28.1 -2.6 21.8 2.8 16.3% 7.8% 12 0.53
Doug McDermott $3,800 $3,800 0.61 24.2 -1.9 14.7 -2.7 17.5% 1.9% 13 N/A
Rajon Rondo $4,800 $4,700 0.87 26.4 -3.2 23.1 -2.7 22.1% 4.7% 8 N/A
Bobby Portis $3,600 $3,500 0.75 11.8 1.7 8.9 3.3 16.9% 2.9% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Michael Carter-Williams, Taj Gibson

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler, Robin Lopez

Cleveland Cavaliers at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Cleveland Cavaliers Minnesota Timberwolves
clevelandnba Vegas Total 219.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 219.0
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 111.5 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Channing Frye Tristan Thompson Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Brandon Rush Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 19 8 9 11 13 Adj. DvP 28 21 23 6 8
DRPM 0.56 -0.48 -2.88 3.43 -1.66 DRPM -1.66 0.12 0.61 -0.85 2.21

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have won seven of their last ten games and seem to have fixed whatever problems they were facing a few weeks ago. They will be without one of their big three tonight, as they take on the Wolves in Minnesota. This should be a great game to target for fantasy production, as it features a 4-point spread and an over/under of 219 points. The Wolves aren’t particularly stout defensively this season, ranking 14th in points allowed per game and 23rd in defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the highest in the slate and nearly identical to their season average.

Do you know who sees the biggest boost with Kevin Love off the floor? CourtIQ sure does. Kyrie Irving sees a 4.4% usage boost and a 0.13 FP/min boost with Love on the bench this season and he averages 43 fantasy points per 36 minutes. Irving is my favorite point guard target in the slate and there are enough value plays on the board that we can easily fit him into our lineups. LeBron James doesn’t see a massive usage boost with Love out, but he does average 0.1 more fantasy points per minute. Over 40 minutes, that is a boost of four fantasy points, which makes a difference. Channing Frye is not priced at a discount, but he is averaging 21.4 fantasy points per game with Love out this season. Frye is worth a look in all formats. Tristan Thompson has played well recently, but I don’t love the idea of paying a premium for him in a matchup against Karl-Anthony Towns where he could get into foul trouble. Iman Shumpert is expected to play tonight, but is more of a deep tournament option. The same goes for Kyle Korver off the bench.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $9,000 $8,400 1.06 35.2 -0.7 37.2 1.6 31.5% 3.6% 19 0.56
Iman Shumpert $3,900 $3,600 0.61 25.4 15.4 13.7% 8 -0.48
LeBron James $11,500 $10,500 1.29 37.6 -0.2 48.4 -3.7 32.8% -1.8% 9 -2.88
Channing Frye $4,600 $4,900 0.85 18.0 -5.4 15.3 -3.1 19.1% 2.1% 11 3.43
Tristan Thompson $6,400 $5,500 0.79 29.8 4.7 23.5 2.4 10.9% -0.8% 13 -1.66
Kyle Korver $4,000 $4,400 0.62 27.0 -0.8 16.7 5.9 14.7% 1.1% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Channing Frye

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson (DK), Iman Shumpert (GPP), Kyle Korver (GPP)

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves got off to a shaky start this season, but they seem to be coming into their own over the last month or so. The fact that they are only 4-point underdogs against the Cavaliers says a lot about how Vegas feels about this team. As I’ve mentioned a few times recently, the Cavaliers have really struggled defensively over the last few weeks. They are now ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 20th in defensive efficiency. The Wolves come into the game with an implied total of 107.5 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 2.9 points above their season average.

Ricky Rubio draws the best matchup of the five Wolves’ starters. Kyrie Irving has a DRPM of -1.66 on the season and the Cavaliers as a whole have allowed the third most fantasy points to point guards. Rubio isn’t a core play for me tonight at this price point, but I will certainly have some exposure in tournaments. Brandon Rush continues to start at shooting guard, but he is only averaging nine fantasy points in his last three games. Shabazz Muhammad remains the preferred play of the two. We could technically call this a revenge game for Andrew Wiggins, since the Cavaliers drafted him and then traded him for Kevin Love. He doesn’t have a great track record against Cleveland, but Wiggins should play close to 40 minutes in a game where the Wolves have a high implied total. I’m always on the wrong side of Gorgui Dieng. While I slightly prefer Taj Gibson and Channing Frye at power forward, Dieng is certainly in play tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns has scored 47 and 51 fantasy points in his last two games against the Cavaliers and will have a much lower ownership than DeMarcus Cousins. Towns is an elite tournament play on FanDuel and is a borderline cash game play on DraftKings where he is PF-eligible.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,800 $6,900 0.86 31.9 -0.9 27.4 4.8 19.8% 4.6% 28 -1.66
Brandon Rush $3,500 $3,000 0.45 16.8 8.1 7.6 1.5 11.0% 0.0% 21 0.12
Andrew Wiggins $7,900 $7,600 0.85 37.1 -0.9 31.6 13.1 27.6% 1.2% 23 0.61
Gorgui Dieng $5,600 $5,300 0.80 32.0 1.3 25.5 1.1 14.9% -1.6% 6 -0.85
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,400 $10,000 1.21 36.4 -0.2 43.9 0.5 27.4% -0.8% 8 2.21
Shabazz Muhammad $3,900 $3,800 0.68 19.8 2.2 13.5 3.3 19.1% 2.3% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns (FD GPP, DK)

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (FD Cash), Ricky Rubio, Shabazz Muhammad, Gorgui Dieng

Sacramento Kings at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET

Sacramento Kings Los Angeles Lakers
sacramentonba Vegas Total 216.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 216.0
Vegas Spread 2.0 Vegas Spread -2.0
Team Total 107.0 Team Total 109.0
Pace +/- 1.8 Pace +/- -2.0
Proj. Starter Darren Collison Ben McLemore Arron Afflalo DeMarcus Cousins Kosta Koufos Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Brandon Ingram Julius Randle Tarik Black
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 27 20 27 29 Adj. DvP 14 23 5 14 4
DRPM -0.68 -1.70 -2.55 0.16 2.45 DRPM -1.87 -1.46 -2.57 0.19 2.73

Sacramento Kings

The Kings draw the best matchup on the board tonight, as they get to face a Lakers team that is ranked 27th in points allowed per game, 29th in defensive efficiency, and sixth in pace of play. We can safely give a boost to the Kings’ offense as a whole, as they come into the game with an implied total of 107 points. Not only is that one of the highest team totals in the slate, but it is also 3.6 points above their season average. On the injury front, Omri Casspi is not ready to return to the lineup. He has been ruled out of tonight’s game, while Ty Lawson remains questionable. Given the fact that the Kings have already lost so many players to injuries, I wouldn’t be surprised if they held Lawson out through the All-Star break.

Darren Collison has been spitting fire in his last three games, averaging 41 minutes and 38 fantasy points per contest. DraftKings has adjusted his price accordingly, but unfortunately he is only $5,700 on FanDuel. He will likely be the highest owned player on FanDuel tonight and is close to a must play in cash games. As I mentioned earlier, I don’t expect Lawson to play in this one and even if he does, Collison will still play 32-35 minutes against the Lakers. Ben McLemore’s fantasy appeal hinges on the availability of Lawson. He has played well in his last three games, averaging 33 minutes and 27 fantasy points per contest. I’m not crazy about Arron Afflalo, but I do love Matt Barnes coming off the bench. He has played at least 31 minutes in four of his last five games and is only $5,100 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. DeMarcus Cousins is the top overall play in the slate, edging out LeBron James and Karl-Anthony Towns for that honor. Cousins has scored at least 45 fantasy points in each of his last five games against the Lakers and has topped the 60-fantasy point mark twice during that stretch.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Darren Collison $5,700 $7,100 0.75 30.8 10.0 23.2 15.7 21.7% 2.7% 25 -0.68
Ben McLemore $4,100 $4,500 0.57 17.2 16.1 9.9 16.8 18.0% -0.6% 27 -1.70
Arron Afflalo $3,500 $3,600 0.48 25.5 6.3 12.3 2.9 14.2% 0.1% 20 -2.55
DeMarcus Cousins $11,400 $12,100 1.43 34.6 -0.9 49.5 -1.0 37.0% 2.7% 27 0.16
Kosta Koufos $3,500 $3,500 0.79 19.2 1.1 15.2 1.6 14.2% 2.3% 29 2.45
Matt Barnes $5,100 $5,100 0.74 25.1 4.5 18.7 7.1 17.3% -2.0% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Darren Collison (FD), Matt Barnes, DeMarcus Cousins

Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (DK), Ben McLemore

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are one of the most frustrating teams to target this season. Even though they play at a quick pace and typically score a lot of points, predicting where the production comes from is difficult. They have one of the deepest rotations in the NBA and they don’t have a single player on their roster that averages more than 29 minutes per game. On the positive side, they draw an exploitable matchup against the Kings, who are ranked 16th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have an implied total of 109 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 4.3 points above their season average.

It’s hard to understand why D’Angelo Russell is so inconsistent. I know that he’s still a young player, but he looks like an All-Star one night and a scrub off the bench the next night. He is always an easy fade in cash games, but is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate. He draws an excellent matchup against the Kings and has scored at least 38 fantasy points in three of his last six games. Nick Young, Lou Williams, and Jordan Clarkson should all see minutes in the mid-20s tonight. All three are viable plays, but none are what I would consider building blocks in this slate. Brandon Ingram has scored at least 20 fantasy points in four of his last five games and is an excellent punt tonight on FanDuel ($3,800). Julius Randle is similar to Russell in that he looks great at times, but struggles with consistency. I wish his minutes were more secure, as he is strictly a GPP play at this point of the season. Tarik Black, Ivica Zubac, and Larry Nance are all intriguing GPP targets in the Lakers’ frontcourt.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $5,900 $5,600 0.99 26.5 -3.5 26.4 -9.6 29.0% -11.4% 14 -1.87
Nick Young $4,600 $4,300 0.74 26.5 -3.2 19.7 5.1 18.8% 5.5% 23 -1.46
Brandon Ingram $3,800 $4,100 0.59 27.6 -1.0 16.2 1.6 16.1% 1.1% 5 -2.57
Julius Randle $5,700 $5,900 0.98 28.4 -4.2 27.7 -4.7 23.6% 7.1% 14 0.19
Tarik Black $4,200 $3,900 0.90 16.4 3.3 14.8 7.5 16.4% 3.7% 4 2.73
Lou Williams $6,100 $5,400 1.09 24.2 -2.3 26.3 -1.4 31.0% 2.6% 23 N/A
Ivica Zubac $3,900 $3,800 0.97 13.4 6.3 13.0 9.0 19.7% -0.1% 4 N/A
Jordan Clarkson $4,500 $3,700 0.77 27.3 -3.0 21.0 -2.8 23.4% 1.1% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Julius Randle (GPP), Brandon Ingram (FD)

Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (Cash), Julius Randle (Cash), Lou Williams, Nick Young, Brandon Ingram (DK), Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious