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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 28th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-01 02:15:13

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Golden State Warriors at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Washington Wizards
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 230.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 230.0
Vegas Spread -6.0 Vegas Spread 6.0
Team Total 118.0 Team Total 112.0
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- 4.2
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 7 3 19 29 10 Adj. DvP 13 8 22 10 21
DRPM -0.37 -0.73 1.03 2.06 1.93 DRPM -0.03 -0.73 1.66 4.76 3.40

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors picked up a win in Philadelphia last night, but their last two wins have been underwhelming. They draw a much tougher test tonight, as they square off against the Wizards, who are one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now. This should be a tremendous game, both from a real-life perspective and from a fantasy perspective. The Warriors are only listed as 6-point favorites and the over/under is set at a whopping 230 points. In terms of the actual matchup, the Wizards have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA over the last month of play. That would typically be a concern if we weren’t talking about the matchup-proof Warriors. Golden State has an implied total of 118 points, which is the highest in the slate. As long as this game stays close, all four of the Warriors’ superstars should see a full complement of minutes.

Stephen Curry has cooled off a bit, averaging only 37 fantasy points in his last five games. His price isn’t what I would call cheap and he is facing a Wizards’ team that is ranked seventh in adjusted DvP against point guards. Curry can always pop off for a 50-fantasy point outing, but I will be taking my chances elsewhere. Klay Thompson has shown a high floor recently, scoring at least 30 fantasy points in eight of his last ten games. Kevin Durant appears to be the chalk play on DraftKings tonight at only $9,700. Otto Porter is a good defender, but $9,700 is just too cheap to ignore. Draymond Green finally had a good game last night, posting 44 fantasy points in 37 minutes against the Sixers. The one position that Washington has really struggled with this season is power forward. They are currently ranked 29th in adjusted DvP against power forwards. Zaza Pachulia is averaging 25 fantasy points in his last five games and is only $3,900 on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,300 $9,500 1.21 33.4 -1.7 40.3 -3.0 30.3% 2.9% 7 -0.37
Klay Thompson $7,100 $6,800 0.89 34.1 -1.7 30.4 4.6 24.2% 0.2% 3 -0.73
Kevin Durant $10,400 $9,700 1.36 34.1 -2.8 46.5 0.3 27.9% -0.2% 19 1.03
Draymond Green $7,200 $7,400 1.08 32.6 -8.2 35.2 -11.9 18.9% 4.3% 29 2.06
Zaza Pachulia $4,500 $3,900 0.96 18.7 -1.1 18.0 6.9 14.8% 1.4% 10 1.93
Andre Iguodala $4,500 $4,400 0.72 25.7 -0.8 18.5 5.2 12.2% 1.6% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant (DK), Draymond Green (FD)

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant (FD), Draymond Green (DK), Zaza Pachulia (DK)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are looking to snap a two-game losing streak. Even after those two losses, they have won seven of their last ten games and have one of the best records in the NBA over the last month of play. The fact that they are listed as only 6-point underdogs against the Warriors tells us everything that we need to know about what Vegas thinks about the Wizards. This should be one of the fastest-paced games in the slate and Washington has a massive implied total of 112 points. The Warriors are ranked second in defensive efficiency this season, but the expected pace of play makes up for the bad matchup. This is my favorite game to stack for tournaments and I plan to have a lot of exposure to it in cash games as well.

John Wall has been off of the collective DFS radar over the last few weeks thanks to an inflated price tag. While it’s tough to stomach paying $10,000+ for Wall, his recent play justifies the price point. Wall draws a favorable matchup against the Warriors and I’m not sure Golden State can afford to put anyone other than Stephen Curry on him. If you put Klay Thompson on Wall, that leaves Curry to defend Bradley Beal or Otto Porter. Speaking of which, Beal and Porter are both elite tournament plays tonight at home in a pace-up game. Both players could push for 35+ minutes and both are decent cash game targets if you are stuck at those positions. Markieff Morris has cooled off a bit recently and draws one of the worst matchups in all of basketball. Draymond Green has the second highest DRPM of any player in the NBA. If you are targeting a Wizards’ big man, I would rather take Marcin Gortat, who is cheaper and has a better matchup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,000 $10,300 1.24 36.7 -0.3 45.5 0.9 34.7% 2.3% 13 -0.03
Bradley Beal $7,000 $7,200 0.92 34.6 -0.8 31.9 0.9 26.4% -1.0% 8 -0.73
Otto Porter $6,200 $6,000 0.83 34.0 0.0 28.1 -1.1 14.9% -1.0% 22 1.66
Markieff Morris $6,500 $6,300 0.85 31.9 -1.4 27.1 2.9 20.7% 1.4% 10 4.76
Marcin Gortat $6,500 $6,100 0.85 34.4 -2.8 29.2 -3.7 14.5% 1.6% 21 3.40
Bojan Bogdanovic $3,800 $4,000 0.75 26.9 0.3 20.1 -3.0 22.4% -3.5% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal (GPP), Otto Porter (GPP), Marcin Gortat (DK)

Secondary Plays – Bradley Beal (Cash), Otto Porter (Cash), Marcin Gortat (FD)

Portland Trail Blazers at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Detroit Pistons
portlandnba Vegas Total 213.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 109.0
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- 0.7
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 4 5 9 8 Adj. DvP 10 25 14 21 16
DRPM -2.54 0.03 1.01 1.17 1.75 DRPM -1.93 -2.03 0.18 0.91 2.32

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are still alive in the hunt for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They are currently a game and a half behind the Nuggets and have the opportunity to pick up a big road win against the Pistons tonight. While we should expect the game to stay close throughout (4.5-point spread), this is not an ideal matchup for the Blazers. On the season, Detroit is ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Portland has an implied total of only 104.5 points, which is the fourth lowest in the slate and 2.8 points below their season average.

Even though the spot isn’t great overall, there are a few decent fantasy options from the Blazers. Damian Lillard is poised to make a nice run in the last 25 games of the season and he has the best matchup of the five starters. Reggie Jackson has a DRPM of -2.54 and as a whole, the Pistons are ranked 20th in adjusted DvP against point guards. C.J. McCollum is usually an easy fade for me and that will continue tonight in a matchup against Kentavious Caldwell-Pope. Maurice Harkless has played at least 32 minutes in three of his last four games and is averaging over 25 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Even with Al-Farouq Aminu back in the mix, Harkless is a viable play in all formats. Jusuf Nurkic got into foul trouble last game and will see a wide range of minutes for the rest of the season. He makes a tremendous tournament play tonight, as he has shown 40+ fantasy point type of upside. His ownership could be a bit lower tonight too, after he burned a lot of people on Sunday.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,400 $8,400 1.11 35.9 1.0 39.9 -1.3 32.1% 0.5% 20 -2.54
C.J. McCollum $7,400 $7,100 0.98 34.6 0.5 33.9 -5.4 28.2% 1.7% 4 0.03
Maurice Harkless $4,800 $4,700 0.71 29.2 1.7 20.8 5.3 15.6% -1.5% 5 1.01
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,000 0.69 13.4 4.8 9.2 1.1 13.3% -4.3% 9 1.17
Jusuf Nurkic $5,300 $5,800 1.00 18.4 7.2 18.4 10.2 23.0% -2.4% 8 1.75
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,600 $5,000 0.77 29.1 3.9 22.3 8.0 15.5% 4.1% 9 N/A

Elite Plays – Maurice Harkless, Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic (Cash)

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and would sneak into the playoffs as the eighth seed if the regular season ended today. It’s strange that in a single game with a low spread we can have one team with one of the highest projected point differentials in the slate and another team with one of the lowest projected point differentials. From a matchup standpoint, the Pistons are in a much better spot than the Blazers tonight. On the season, Portland is ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Detroit comes into tonight’s game with an implied total of 109 points, which is 7.6 points above their season average. Detroit is never a fun team to target in DFS, but we can give their offense a sizable boost as a whole tonight.

Reggie Jackson has been one of the most frustrating players in DFS this season. His fantasy production over the last five games is a perfect example. During that stretch, he has scored 9, 26, 29, 9, and 30 fantasy points. If you had Jackson on either of the nights where he failed to crack ten fantasy points, he would have sunk your lineups. The temptation is strong at only $5,300, but I see Jackson as more of a tournament play tonight against the Blazers. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope should play 35+ minutes in a pace-up game at home. He is an elite play on FanDuel where we have to roster two shooting guards. Marcus Morris should also play around 35 minutes tonight and he is a player that always seems to go overlooked. Morris isn’t a core play for me tonight, but is worth a look in all formats. I never seem to get Jon Leuer and Tobias Harris right, but both are in play tonight. Leuer is averaging 31 minutes in his last five games and is only $4,600 on FanDuel. Harris is a little more expensive, but he has more upside in general. Andre Drummond has played well at home this season and gets to face a Blazers’ defense that is ranked 16th against centers and 23rd in rebounding differential. Drummond has as much upside as any center in the player pool.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,300 $5,300 0.90 28.3 -2.4 25.4 -4.7 29.4% -4.9% 10 -1.93
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,400 $5,900 0.73 34.0 3.9 24.7 2.7 20.1% 3.0% 25 -2.03
Marcus Morris $5,900 $5,900 0.73 33.2 3.3 24.1 3.4 20.0% 0.5% 14 0.18
Jon Leuer $4,600 $5,000 0.78 27.3 3.5 21.3 -2.1 17.1% 0.2% 21 0.91
Andre Drummond $8,100 $8,200 1.19 30.5 -2.1 36.4 -4.7 22.4% 2.2% 16 2.32
Tobias Harris $5,400 $5,300 0.81 31.7 -2.7 25.7 -1.8 21.4% 0.4% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (FD), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (Cash), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DK), Andre Drummond (Cash), Marcus Morris, Jon Leuer (FD), Tobias Harris

Phoenix Suns at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Memphis Grizzlies
phoenixnba Vegas Total 210.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread 10.0 Vegas Spread -10.0
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 110.0
Pace +/- -3.6 Pace +/- 3.1
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Chandler Parsons JaMychal Green Marc Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 7 6 3 1 Adj. DvP 19 29 11 24 20
DRPM -0.99 2.01 0.46 1.07 1.30 DRPM -1.12 -2.27 -2.62 -1.02 1.32

Phoenix Suns

The Suns are finally starting to do what most bad teams in the NBA should be doing at this point of the season. They are starting to rest their veteran players in order to give more minutes for their young guns. Tyson Chandler has been a DNP-CD in each of the last two games and barring an injury, I’d be surprised if he is a regular part of the rotation anytime soon. The Suns have also tightened up their rotation recently, so they will be a great team to target in DFS moving forward. The issue tonight is their matchup against the Grizzlies. On the season, Memphis is ranked third in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. The Suns have the lowest implied total in the slate at 100 points.

Given the 10-point spread and the low team total, I will be avoiding the Suns in cash games tonight. With that said, there are a few intriguing tournament plays here. Eric Bledsoe is only $7,800 on DraftKings and comes into the game in tremendous form. In his last five games, he is averaging 37 minutes and 45 fantasy points per contest. Devin Booker is an easy fade, as he will have to deal with Tony Allen, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. T.J. Warren has been the biggest beneficiary of the P.J. Tucker trade, as he has played at least 38 minutes in back-to-back games. If we assume Tyson Chandler will be a DNP again tonight, Alex Len and Alan Williams both carry some tournament appeal as well.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,500 $7,800 1.11 33.4 3.8 37.1 7.5 30.4% -2.1% 9 -0.99
Devin Booker $6,500 $6,500 0.83 34.6 -1.1 28.8 -2.3 28.0% 0.0% 7 2.01
T.J. Warren $5,300 $5,500 0.74 29.5 0.8 21.8 1.6 18.7% -4.3% 6 0.46
Marquese Chriss $4,500 $4,600 0.77 19.0 5.6 14.6 6.9 19.1% 1.5% 3 1.07
Alex Len $4,800 $4,000 0.92 19.8 2.3 18.2 2.9 16.7% 6.7% 1 1.30
Alan Williams $5,000 $4,100 1.22 8.5 7.3 10.3 10.4 20.2% 1.9% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (DK GPP), T.J. Warren (GPP), Alex Len (GPP), Alan Williams (GPP)

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies have won six of their last ten games and will do their best to move into the top four in the Western Conference standings. Home-court advantage is going to play a huge role in the playoffs, even though Memphis has the tools to compete on the road. They should be able to pick up a win tonight against the Suns, who are one of the worst teams in the NBA. This is also one of the best possible matchups, as the Suns are ranked third in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game this season. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 110 points, which is the fourth in the slate and 9.2 points above their season average. The only concern here is a potential blowout.

Mike Conley is typically a point guard that gets overlooked on most slates. Despite a tremendous matchup against the Suns, I expect him to be under 20% owned on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He probably won’t end up making my cash game lineup, but I plan to have a lot of exposure to him in tournaments. Against this same team earlier this season, Conley scored 61 fantasy points. Tony Allen and Chandler Parsons both grade out as decent value plays in this matchup, but they are better GPP plays than cash game targets. Marc Gasol should benefit if Tyson Chandler is rested again tonight, as Alex Len and Alan Williams will have a tough time defending him in the post and on the perimeter. Gasol is an elite play in all formats, especially in cash games. Zach Randolph is typically better in slower-paced games, but he should see around 25 minutes against a Suns’ defense that is ranked 24th against power forwards.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $8,000 $7,900 1.04 32.7 1.5 34.0 2.4 29.3% -0.3% 19 -1.12
Tony Allen $4,600 $4,800 0.76 27.8 -2.7 21.1 0.3 17.6% 4.0% 29 -2.27
Chandler Parsons $3,500 $3,400 0.63 19.4 1.7 12.3 -2.4 18.7% -5.1% 11 -2.62
JaMychal Green $4,200 $4,200 0.72 28.6 -4.0 20.7 -4.8 14.1% 1.1% 24 -1.02
Marc Gasol $8,200 $7,600 1.07 34.4 1.4 36.9 -0.3 28.4% -0.6% 20 1.32
Zach Randolph $6,000 $5,600 1.09 24.4 -0.2 26.7 -1.1 28.5% 0.4% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley (GPP), Marc Gasol

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley (Cash), Tony Allen, Chandler Parsons, Zach Randolph

Denver Nuggets at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Denver Nuggets Chicago Bulls
denvernba Vegas Total 222.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 109.5 Team Total 112.5
Pace +/- -1.5 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Jameer Nelson Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Wilson Chandler Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Bobby Portis Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 17 16 12 3 Adj. DvP 27 26 29 23 15
DRPM 0.17 -0.60 1.86 -0.53 0.21 DRPM -1.20 -1.85 -0.14 -1.45 1.12

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets haven’t come out of the gates firing since the All-Star break, but they still hold a game and a half lead over the teams chasing them in the West. They are still my favorite to make the playoffs and I would love to watch a first round matchup between them and the Warriors. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on the Bulls in a game that has a surprisingly high over/under. The Bulls are typically a slow paced team that plays good defense, but the over/under is set at 222 points. The Nuggets are listed as 3-point underdogs with an implied total of 109.5 points, which is fairly close to their season average.

Jameer Nelson has played well as the Nuggets’ starting point guard, but he is no longer priced at a discount. While I don’t see him as a must start tonight, he is averaging 30 fantasy points over his last five games and he gets to face a Bulls’ team that is ranked 23rd in adjusted DvP against point guards. Nelson is certainly a viable play here, the question is whether he is a strong enough play to use him at the loaded point guard position. Gary Harris has really played well recently and stands out as a strong cash game option tonight on FanDuel. With Kenneth Faried out, Wilson Chandler and Danilo Gallinari should both see 30+ minutes. They are a bit expensive, but I will have a few shares of each in tournaments. The Bulls typically play big most of the time, so I doubt we see a lot of three guard lineups from the Nuggets tonight. If that’s the case, Will Barton will likely be held under 30 minutes, unless he comes out on fire. Nikola Jokic has really struggled since the Nuggets acquired Mason Plumlee. I really don’t understand why they wouldn’t plug Jokic in for 35 minutes a night, but he is only averaging 29 in his last five games. Jokic is priced at a discount on DraftKings, but the matchup against the Bulls isn’t ideal. For now, I consider Jokic a deep tournament play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jameer Nelson $5,600 $5,400 0.74 26.4 4.2 19.5 11.0 19.7% -0.2% 23 0.17
Gary Harris $5,500 $5,900 0.80 28.9 4.3 23.1 5.0 20.2% 2.8% 17 -0.60
Danilo Gallinari $6,700 $6,200 0.80 33.9 -3.9 27.1 3.1 19.8% 3.8% 16 1.86
Wilson Chandler $6,600 $6,600 0.89 30.9 0.3 27.6 2.2 22.9% 3.0% 12 -0.53
Nikola Jokic $9,500 $8,900 1.27 26.8 1.9 34.0 0.6 24.6% -2.5% 3 0.21
Will Barton $5,900 $5,800 0.87 29.1 4.2 25.2 3.0 22.2% -0.6% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – Gary Harris (FD)

Secondary Plays – Jameer Nelson, Gary Harris (DK), Danilo Gallinari, Wilson Chandler, Nikola Jokic (DK)

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls have had a tumultuous season so far, but they have won four games in a row and would sneak into the playoffs as the seventh seed if the regular season ended today. They draw one of the best matchups in all of fantasy basketball, as they get to host the visiting Nuggets. On the season, Denver is ranked 28th in points allowed per game and dead last in defensive efficiency. Chicago is listed as a 3-point favorite with an implied total of 112.5 points. Not only do they have the second highest team total in the slate, but they also have the highest projected point differential at +9.7.

Even with Michael Carter-Williams out, I don’t want to play the Bulls’ PG roulette game. Jerian Grant, Rajon Rondo, and Cameron Payne will all continue to split minutes, which isn’t great for DFS. Dwyane Wade has immense fantasy appeal though, as he is averaging 33 minutes and 41 fantasy points in his last five games. He draws an excellent matchup against the Nuggets and he should see a full complement of minutes with the spread sitting at only three points. Jimmy Butler is in the same boat as Wade and you can honestly pair the two together in the same lineup. Butler is $9,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and has 50+ fantasy point upside in this pace-up matchup against the Nuggets. Even after trading Taj Gibson, the Bulls still aren’t giving Bobby Portis enough minutes. In his last two starts, he has played a combined 35 minutes. If they ever play him 25 minutes, he should crush value, but until then, he is more of a GPP flier. Nikola Mirotic has seen the biggest boost since the Gibson trade and should be in line for a big workload again tonight. His is a volatile player, but you have to love the upside in an uptempo game against Denver. Robin Lopez is cheap across the industry, but his minutes are trending in the wrong direction.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $3,500 $3,200 0.67 16.3 1.8 10.9 1.1 17.7% -1.0% 27 -1.20
Dwyane Wade $8,000 $7,500 1.07 30.5 2.8 32.8 8.8 31.2% -2.1% 26 -1.85
Jimmy Butler $9,300 $9,300 1.14 36.8 3.1 41.8 3.5 29.4% -1.7% 29 -0.14
Bobby Portis $4,100 $4,400 0.79 12.4 8.0 9.9 9.1 17.5% 3.9% 23 -1.45
Robin Lopez $4,800 $4,400 0.78 28.0 -2.2 21.8 -0.3 16.7% 6.1% 15 1.12
Nikola Mirotic $4,400 $5,000 0.82 22.9 10.0 18.7 11.8 18.9% -2.3% 23 N/A
Rajon Rondo $5,500 $5,400 0.88 26.3 -2.0 23.3 0.7 22.2% 3.1% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Dwyane Wade, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic

Secondary Plays – Bobby Portis (GPP)

Utah Jazz at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz Oklahoma City Thunder
utahnba Vegas Total 204.5 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 101.5
Pace +/- 1.8 Pace +/- -5.3
Proj. Starter George Hill Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Alex Abrines Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 24 11 18 11 13 Adj. DvP 2 1 1 1 5
DRPM -0.24 -2.23 2.17 1.25 1.74 DRPM 0.78 0.54 -0.06 2.75 5.22

Utah Jazz

The Jazz have won three games in a row and seven of their last ten. If the regular season ended today, they would host the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs. As I mentioned earlier, home-court advantage could prove pivotal in the first round this season. The Jazz draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. While the Jazz have an implied total that is 2.6 points above their season average, it is still the third lowest in the slate.

George Hill is coming off of one of his better games in the last couple of weeks and he draws the best matchup of the five starters. While Russell Westbrook isn’t an awful defender, we have been targeting point guards against the Thunder with success all season. Oklahoma City is currently ranked 24th in adjusted DvP against point guards. Rodney Hood played 27 minutes the other night against the Wizards and could see 28-30 minutes tonight. He has been wildly inconsistent and injury prone though, which makes him more of a GPP play tonight. Gordon Hayward will have to deal with Andre Roberson, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. I’m not going to fade Hayward completely, but I will have very limited exposure to him in tournaments. Rudy Gobert stands out as a nice play on DraftKings at a price of only $7,300. He is averaging 36 fantasy points in his last five games and should play 33-35 minutes tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
George Hill $6,000 $6,400 0.91 31.8 1.0 29.0 -2.4 24.9% 0.3% 24 -0.24
Rodney Hood $4,100 $4,100 0.73 28.4 -4.4 20.6 -5.9 22.7% -1.8% 11 -2.23
Gordon Hayward $7,900 $7,700 1.01 34.7 0.2 35.0 -0.9 27.8% 0.7% 18 2.17
Derrick Favors $5,000 $5,400 0.88 23.5 1.4 20.6 1.7 20.0% -2.0% 11 1.25
Rudy Gobert $7,900 $7,300 1.03 33.6 -1.5 34.5 2.1 15.6% 3.2% 13 1.74

Elite Plays – George Hill (FD), Rudy Gobert (DK)

Secondary Plays – George Hill (DK), Rudy Gobert (FD), Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have tailed off a bit since their hot start to the season, but are all but guaranteed a spot in the playoffs. They draw arguably the worst matchup in all of fantasy basketball tonight, as they have to face the slow-paced Jazz. Utah is ranked dead last in pace and first in points allowed per game. The Thunder have an implied total of only 101.5 points, which is the second lowest on the board and 4.7 points below their season average. Russell Westbrook is really the only fantasy option that I am looking at on this side of the ball. He doesn’t have a great track record against the Jazz in his career, but he did put up 38 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists in their last meeting. Westbrook also sees a nice FP/min boost without Victor Oladipo (questionable) on the floor. Westbrook is priced down on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which certainly makes him an intriguing play. If Oladipo is eventually ruled out, I will be loading up on Westbrook in all formats on FanDuel ($12,000) and in tournaments on DraftKings ($12,100).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,000 $12,100 1.66 34.7 -0.5 57.6 1.6 45.9% 1.4% 2 0.78
Alex Abrines $3,600 $3,900 0.58 14.7 7.1 8.5 3.9 15.8% -1.0% 1 0.54
Andre Roberson $4,300 $4,200 0.60 30.6 -2.1 18.2 1.4 10.5% 1.1% 1 -0.06
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,100 0.60 21.5 -0.6 12.9 2.4 14.8% 1.7% 1 2.75
Steven Adams $5,900 $5,400 0.85 30.8 -1.6 26.1 0.9 16.6% 1.3% 5 5.22
Enes Kanter $5,500 $4,900 1.14 21.6 -0.2 24.6 -2.0 25.8% 4.4% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (if Oladipo is out)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (if Oladipo is active)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious