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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 12th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-13 18:15:09

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Phoenix Suns at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM

Phoenix Suns Indiana Pacers
phoenixnba Vegas Total 205.0 indiananba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 107.3
Team Pace 100.80 Team Pace 99.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Brandon Knight Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Jon Leuer Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Paul George Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi
Opp. Season 3 23 3 18 18 Opp. Season 29 27 26 15 7
Opp. Last 7 13 15 2 11 12 Opp. Last 7 30 23 23 17 27

Phoenix Suns

Record: 13-26 — Road: 4-15 — Last 10: 1-9

The Suns have lost nine of their last ten games and have a porous 4-15 record on the road. They draw a tough matchup tonight against the Pacers in Indiana. The Suns are listed as 9.5-point favorites with their team total set at only 97.8 points.

The Pacers play at an above-average pace, but they are still one of the best defenses in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Alex Len has been ruled out of tonight’s contest. Tyson Chandler and Jon Leuer should both see a small boost in minutes.

Elite Plays

Devin Booker

Booker is a little too expensive to be considered an elite play on DraftKings, but he certainly deserves the tag on FanDuel. Over his last five games, he is averaging 25.5 fantasy points in 34.4 minutes per contest. Booker’s minutes should be secure even if the Suns end up getting blown out by the Pacers.

FD — $3,900 — SG
DK — $4,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 17.1
Min/Game — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 11.6 | Last Five Games: 25.5

Secondary Plays

Brandon Knight

We are still waiting for Knight to have that breakout game with Eric Bledsoe out. He certainly hasn’t played bad recently though, averaging 33.6 fantasy points in his last five games. The upside is there, but he draws a tough matchup against the Pacers. Knight is more of a secondary/tournament play tonight.

FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 23.6
Min/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 39.0
FP/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 33.6

T.J. Warren

Warren has been given inconsistent playing time recently. He has seen as much as 41 minutes and as little as 19 minutes in his last five games alone. He is a risky cash game option tonight, but he could be an intriguing tournament play.

FD — $4,500 — SF
DK — $4,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 23.1 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 18.0 | Last Five Games: 22.7

Tyson Chandler

Chandler has not played well since coming back from injury, but that has more to do with his minutes than it does anything else. With Alex Len out tonight, Chandler should see at least 25 minutes of action. At his price point, he is a viable punt play at center.

FD — $3,900 — C
DK — $3,800 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 8.9 | Last Five Games: 12.7
Min/Game — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 20.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.3 | Last Five Games: 15.8

Indiana Pacers

Record: 21-16 — Home: 12-5 — Last 10: 5-5

The Pacers have only won five of their last ten games, but they are still five games above .500 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight at home against the Suns. The Pacers are projected to score 107.3 points, which is the second highest team total on the board.

The Suns have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 22nd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Pacers’ offense deserves a nice boost as a whole, but there is the potential for this game to turn into a blowout.

Elite Plays

Paul George

George has been a boom or bust fantasy option over the last month of play, but has scored at least 46 fantasy points in four of his last six games. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Suns at home. Assuming the game stays close, George has a great chance to reach and exceed value. A blowout would obviously end up hurting his production though.

FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $9,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 24.0
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 39.4 | Last Five Games: 40.6

Secondary Plays

George Hill

Many may look to Monta Ellis tonight, but dollar for dollar, Hill is the better play in my eyes. He averages 35 minutes per game this season and he is facing a very beatable Suns’ backcourt. Hill may not have that high ceiling, but he has a relatively high floor, making him a safe cash game play tonight.

FD — $5,600 — PG
DK — $5,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 12.3
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 36.1
FP/Game — Season: 23.7 | Last Five Games: 22.8

San Antonio Spurs at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

San Antonio Spurs Detroit Pistons
sanantonionba Vegas Total 194.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd -7.0 Vegas Sprd 7.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 93.5
Team Pace 95.70 Team Pace 97.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 9 9 2 20 8 Opp. Season 6 1 1 1 2
Opp. Last 7 20 14 4 9 8 Opp. Last 7 4 2 3 2 3

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 33-6 — Road: 11-6 — Last 10: 9-1

The Spurs have won nine of their last ten games and are now 33-6 overall. Tonight they head to Detroit to take on the Pistons in a battle between two good defensive teams. The Spurs are only projected to score 100.5 points, which is 3.1 points lower than their average points per game.

The Pistons have been a top ten defensive team all season. They are ranked ninth or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With a poor matchup and the fact that the Spurs are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, they are risky fantasy options tonight. The one positive is that the spread is only seven points, which is low for a Spurs’ game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard

The matchup and current form are both absent for Leonard, but the game has a spread of only seven points. If the game stays relatively close, he could see around 35 minutes tonight against the Pistons. Anytime we can bank on Leonard seeing minutes in the mid-30’s, we have to at least give him consideration.

FD — $8,300 — SF
DK — $8,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 30.7

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge has quietly put together a nice stretch of games, averaging 34.9 over his last five. He is coming off of a big outing against the Nets last night and he draws another favorable matchup tonight. If you look at the five Pistons’ starters, Ersan Ilyasova is clearly their weak link defensively.

FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $6,800 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 23.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 31.1
FP/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 34.9

Detroit Pistons

Record: 21-16 — Home: 13-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and are now 21-16 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Spurs in a game that is expected to be slow-paced and low scoring. The Pistons are only projected to score 93.5 points, which is the lowest team total on the board.

The Spurs are the top defensive team in the NBA. They are ranked first or second in all four of the defensive categories listed above. They are basically a black hole for fantasy production. The Pistons have the lowest team total on the board and can safely be avoided in all league formats. Marcus Morris is questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to play, Stanley Johnson could provide some nice value.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Boston Celtics at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM

Boston Celtics New York Knicks
bostonnba Vegas Total 200.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 99.3 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 100.80 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Kelly Olynyk Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez
Opp. Season 5 14 7 8 13 Opp. Season 1 10 21 24 16
Opp. Last 7 6 13 22 27 16 Opp. Last 7 3 7 16 24 9

Boston Celtics

Record: 19-18 — Road: 10-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have won five of their last ten games and are now 19-18 on the season. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks in Madison Square Garden. The Celtics are projected to score 99.3 points, which is 3.1 points lower than their average points per game.

The Knicks have been better than average defensively this season, ranking tenth in points allowed per game and seventh in fantasy points allowed per game. The Celtics are a tough team to target in DFS now that they are healthy. Avery Bradley, Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart, and Evan Turner are all splitting minutes in the backcourt.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Jae Crowder

Crowder has been terrific over the last month of play. His price has come up across the industry, but he is a viable play at small forward tonight. He may see a few extra minutes tonight, as he will be tasked with defending Carmelo Anthony.

FD — $6,300 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.3 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 30.5

Kelly Olynyk

Olynyk’s minutes are always a concern, but at least he is in the starting lineup. He has started six games this season, averaging 13 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists, and 1.5 blocks/steals. That equates to just over 26 fantasy points, which is solid production at his price point. Olynyk can be considered a borderline elite play on FanDuel.

FD — $4,600 — C
DK — $5,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.5 | Last Five Games: 16.2
Min/Game — Season: 20.6 | Last Five Games: 26.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 20.2

New York Knicks

Record: 19-20 — Home: 10-8 — Last 10: 5-5

The Knicks have won five of their last ten games and can get back to .500 on the season with a win tonight over the Celtics. The Knicks are 1.5-point favorites in what should be a pace up game for New York. They are projected to score 100.8 points, which is the sixth highest team total on the board.

The Celtics have been one of the most efficient teams defensively this season, but their fast pace of play helps the fantasy appeal of their opponents. Boston is ranked tenth in points allowed per game and 12th in fantasy points allowed per game.

Elite Plays

Kristaps Porzingis

The biggest concern with Porzingis this season has been his playing time. It has been so inconsistent that it has been difficult to predict what his production will be on any given night. However, he has played at least 30 minutes in each of his last five games. It’s a great time to buy low on the rookie, as he draws a fantastic matchup against the Celtics, who are really lacking height in their frontcourt.

FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $6,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.7 | Last Five Games: 20.0
Min/Game — Season: 27.8 | Last Five Games: 31.3
FP/Game — Season: 28.5 | Last Five Games: 30.0

Secondary Plays

Carmelo Anthony

Anthony has been very productive over his last five games, averaging 43.2 fantasy points. His price is reasonable across the industry, but he does draw a difficult matchup against Jae Crowder. Anthony is more of a secondary play tonight, as Kevin Durant and Paul George are slightly better options if you are paying up at small forward.

FD — $9,000 — SF
DK — $8,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.4 | Last Five Games: 21.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 37.7
FP/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 43.2

Robin Lopez

Lopez has been playing a ton of minutes recently, averaging 32.1 over his last five games. If that trend continues tonight, he could be a sneaky play at center. The Celtics are ranked 23rd in rebounding differential and 16th in fantasy points allowed to centers this season.

FD — $4,500 — C
DK — $5,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.4 | Last Five Games: 15.7
Min/Game — Season: 24.9 | Last Five Games: 32.1
FP/Game — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 27.6

Oklahoma City Thunder at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

Oklahoma City Thunder Minnesota Timberwolves
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 210.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd -11.0 Vegas Sprd 11.0
Team Proj. 110.5 Team Proj. 99.5
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 97.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Andrew Wiggins Tayshaun Prince Kevin Garnett Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 16 15 14 9 22 Opp. Season 24 17 9 7 3
Opp. Last 7 11 19 24 6 24 Opp. Last 7 24 22 27 13 2

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 26-12 — Road: 9-7 — Last 10: 7-3

The Thunder have won seven of their last ten games and are now 26-12 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wolves in Minnesota. The Thunder are projected to score 110.5 points, which is the highest team total on the board.

The Wolves may not be the worst defensive team in the NBA this season, but they are ranked below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The question with the Thunder isn’t if the matchup is favorable, it is whether the Wolves can keep this game within striking distance.

Elite Plays

Kevin Durant

It’s always a difficult decision when it comes to Durant vs. Russell Westbrook. The choice is a little easier tonight, as Durant is considerably cheaper and in nearly identical form. Durant draws a favorable matchup against the Wolves and is my top play at small forward tonight.

FD — $10,000 — SF
DK — $9,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.1 | Last Five Games: 22.5
Min/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 43.7 | Last Five Games: 45.7

Secondary Plays

Russell Westbrook

We can never fully rule out Westbrook, but there are better plays dollar for dollar at point guard. Westbrook has that 60 fantasy point type of upside though, which makes him a nice tournament play. The matchup is decent and his ownership should be low.

FD — $10,900 — PG
DK — $10,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 30.4
Min/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 34.9
FP/Game — Season: 49.3 | Last Five Games: 47.0

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 12-26 — Home: 5-16 — Last 10: 1-9

The Wolves have been awful of late, losing nine of their last ten games. They will likely put another loss on their resume tonight against the Thunder. The Wolves are 11-point underdogs, but they do have a respectable team total of 99.5 points.

The Thunder are a mediocre defense, although they have the best rebounding differential in the NBA this season. Oklahoma City has been extremely tough on opposing bigs, making Karl-Anthony Towns a risky play tonight. If you are looking at any Wolves’ players tonight, the top plays are in the backcourt.

Elite Plays

Ricky Rubio

Rubio is a bit too expensive to be considered an elite play on FanDuel, but he priced is under $7,000 on DraftKings. He should see 30+ minutes tonight against the Thunder, who have allowed the seventh most fantasy points to point guards this season.

FD — $7,600 — PG
DK — $6,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 16.0
Min/Game — Season: 30.7 | Last Five Games: 31.4
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 30.4

Secondary Plays

Andrew Wiggins

Wiggins has been too inconsistent to trust in cash games, but as evidenced by the game against the Cavaliers, he has nice upside at his price point. If the Wolves are going to have any chance tonight against the Thunder, they will need a big game from their star sophomore.

FD — $6,500 — SF
DK — $6,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.6 | Last Five Games: 24.0
Min/Game — Season: 34.9 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 28.2 | Last Five Games: 29.4

Houston Rockets at Memphis Grizzlies – 8:00 PM

Houston Rockets Memphis Grizzlies
houstonnba Vegas Total 197.0 memphisnba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 98.0 Team Proj. 99.0
Team Pace 99.40 Team Pace 96.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Mario Chalmers Courtney Lee Matt Barnes Jeff Green Marc Gasol
Opp. Season 15 5 23 11 4 Opp. Season 13 22 27 30 12
Opp. Last 7 8 1 25 4 1 Opp. Last 7 5 28 21 28 11

Houston Rockets

Record: 19-19 — Road: 7-10 — Last 10: 5-5

The Rockets have won five of their last ten games and are now 19-19 on the season. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the slow-paced Grizzlies. The Rockets are only projected to score 98 points, which is 5.9 points lower than their average points per game.

The Grizzlies are no longer a top five defensive team in the NBA, but they are getting back to their roots over the last couple of weeks. They are now ranked seventh in points allowed per game and ninth in fantasy points allowed per game. Ty Lawson (suspension) and Donatas Motiejunas (injury) have both been ruled out of tonight’s game. I will be fading James Harden tonight. Not only is this a pace-down game for Houston, but he will likely see a lot of Tony Allen.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

Howard is really the only Rockets’ player that is on my radar tonight. While I don’t like him in cash games, he does make an interesting tournament play on DraftKings. Over his last five games, he is averaging 42.6 fantasy points. Howard’s ownership should be low, as he draws a tough matchup against Marc Gasol.

FD — $8,200 — C
DK — $7,300 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 38.9
FP/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 42.6

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 21-18 — Home: 13-6 — Last 10: 6-4

The Grizzlies have won six of their last ten games and they are now three games above .500 on the season. They draw one of the best matchups on the board tonight, as they host the visiting Rockets. The Grizzlies are projected to score 99 points, which is considerably higher than their average points per game.

The Rockets are one of a handful of teams that are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Mike Conley is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to play, give a boost to Mario Chalmers, Courtney Lee, and Tony Allen. Jeff Green and Matt Barnes would also become decent mid-range options at small forward.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Marc Gasol

Gasol has not looked right over his last five games. Despite a small increase in usage, he is only averaging 24.9 fantasy points during that stretch. He draws a mediocre matchup tonight against Dwight Howard and the Rockets. He could be a sneaky tournament play.

FD — $7,300 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 20.6
Min/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 34.6
FP/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 24.9

Mario Chalmers

This pick hinges on the health of Mike Conley. If he is unable to suit up, Chalmers would handle most of the point guard duties. He has played well with Conley out this season. Chalmers could be considered an elite play on FanDuel, but $5,900 on DraftKings is a little expensive, even if he does draw another start.

FD — $5,000 — PG
DK — $5,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 20.9
Min/Game — Season: 21.0 | Last Five Games: 29.0
FP/Game — Season: 19.0 | Last Five Games: 26.0

Tony Allen

Allen has played well over his last five games, averaging 26 fantasy points in 32.5 minutes per contest. He draws a favorable matchup tonight against the Rockets and he may see a small boost in minutes as well. He will be tasked with defending James Harden.

FD — $4,300 — SG
DK — $4,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.8 | Last Five Games: 11.4
Min/Game — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 26.0

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious