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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 15th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-11-16 03:29:51

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Don’t yet have a Rosters account? Click here to create one. You’ll receive free access to our premium Rosters strategy content, which will build upon the guide below. Create your Rosters account now!

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Toronto Raptors at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Cleveland Cavaliers
torontonba Vegas Total 207.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 100.8 Team Total 106.3
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- -2.6
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 8 10 15 2 20 2016-17 26 2 3 3 12

Toronto Raptors

Happy Tuesday everyone. As always, thank you for reading the NBA Grind Down. We have a small five-game slate on tap tonight, but it should still be a good one. The Raptors are 7-2 to start the season with a perfect record on the road. That perfection will be test tonight against the Cavaliers, who have been, are, and will be the best team in the Eastern Conference. While both of these offenses are very efficient, neither team plays at a particularly fast pace. The Raptors are listed as 5.5-point underdogs with the over/under for the game set at 207 points. The fact that Toronto is only a 5.5-point dog in Cleveland says a lot about how well they have played so far this season. With that said, this isn’t an ideal matchup for fantasy production. The Raptors have an implied total of 100.8 points, which is the second lowest in the slate and 4.6 points below their season average.

When you play 38.7 minutes per game and have a true usage rate of 26.4%, it’s no surprise why Kyle Lowry has been so good this season. I’m not sure the Raptors can afford to play him this many minutes all season, but I will continue targeting him until it changes. Lowry struggled against the Cavaliers in the season opener, but put up 68.5 and 48.8 fantasy points in their previous two meetings. DeMar DeRozan has been incredibly efficient this season, shooting 50% from long-range two point shots. I’m not sure we can count on the efficiency to continue, but he has the third highest true usage rate in the NBA (37.3%) and he is playing 37.1 minutes per game. This is a matchup that DeRozan has historically struggled with and his price is at an all-time high. While I still have him projected as the top shooting guard in the slate, he’s not the best point-per-dollar play. DeMarre Carroll may not play again tonight. In his absence on Saturday, Norman Powell played 29 minutes and scored 30 fantasy points, although he would match up against LeBron James. Jonas Valanciunas has been quiet since returning from his knee injury, which has opened the door for Lucas Nogueira. In his last three games, Nogueira has played at least 26 minutes and has scored at least 24 fantasy points in each. He is an intriguing GPP play tonight, especially on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyle Lowry $8,000 $7,600 $12,100 0.92 38.7 1.0 35.8 4.4 26.4% -0.8% 8
DeMar DeRozan $9,200 $8,800 $12,600 1.21 37.1 -0.2 44.8 4.3 37.3% 0.3% 10
DeMarre Carroll $3,900 $3,600 $8,500 0.59 25.4 -3.2 14.9 0.1 13.1% 1.3% 15
Pascal Siakam $3,500 $3,000 $7,200 0.62 17.1 -2.5 10.5 -1.8 12.6% -0.1% 2
Jonas Valanciunas $5,800 $6,000 $10,300 0.98 28.3 -6.8 27.9 -2.3 19.7% 2.5% 20
Patrick Patterson $4,000 $4,200 $7,600 0.64 30.9 0.5 19.8 1.8 12.4% 2.6% 2
Lucas Nogueira $4,600 $4,100 $7,300 1.01 25.8 1.4 26.2 2.9 9.9% 0.1% 20

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Lucas Nogueira, Norman Powell

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have cruised to an 8-1 record so far this season, although Tyronn Lue would like to see them put games away a little earlier. The plan before the season started was to limit LeBron James minutes, but so far they haven’t really had a choice. The Cavaliers come into tonight’s game as 5.5-point favorites against a Raptors’ team that actually matches up pretty well against them. Toronto won three of the four regular season games against Cleveland last year and they pushed them to six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. This isn’t a great matchup by any means, but the low spread should mean a full complement of minutes for James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 106.3 points, which is 3.2 points below their season average.

Kyrie Irving has suddenly become one of the most polarizing players to the DFS community. Half the people think he is overrated and half the people see his highlights and fall madly in love with him. I stand somewhere in the middle. He has an incredible ability to create shots, but he isn’t a great two-way player. In his last three meetings against Kyle Lowry, Irving has scored 35.2, 12.7, and 43.2 fantasy points. He has more scoring upside than Lowry, but a lower ceiling when it comes to assists and rebounds. The two are very close tonight, but I slightly prefer Lowry over Irving. J.R. Smith is questionable with an ankle injury. If he is unable to suit up, Iman Shumpert and Mike Dunleavy would pick up a few extra minutes. LeBron James seems to score between 42 and 56 fantasy points every single game. He has an incredibly high floor, making him an elite cash game option in this small slate. Kevin Love has been inconsistent at times, but he is averaging 38.7 fantasy points in his last three games and he draws a decent matchup against rookie Pascal Siakam. Tristan Thompson is a decent punt play here, but it looks like a good night to spend up at center.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kyrie Irving $7,400 $7,400 $12,000 0.99 34.5 -0.3 34.3 2.2 31.3% 1.3% 26
J.R. Smith $4,300 $4,300 $8,500 0.62 31.9 1.2 19.9 -0.1 14.8% 2.1% 2
LeBron James $9,900 $10,300 $14,800 1.27 36.9 1.0 47.0 -1.6 32.4% -1.1% 3
Kevin Love $7,500 $7,800 $11,700 1.10 32.5 0.1 35.6 3.1 26.0% -1.6% 3
Tristan Thompson $4,600 $4,700 $8,300 0.77 27.9 -2.0 21.6 -5.6 7.4% -1.7% 12

Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, LeBron James, Kevin Love

Secondary Plays – Tristan Thompson

Atlanta Hawks at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

ALERT: Justise Winslow has been ruled OUT for tonight’s game.

Atlanta Hawks Miami Heat
atlantanba Vegas Total 200.0 miaminba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 96.8
Pace +/- -2.4 Pace +/- 3.5
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter Josh Richardson Dion Waiters Justise Winslow Derrick Williams Hassan Whiteside
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 1 15 5 5 17 2016-17 27 20 13 5 1

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks are looking for their fifth win in a row tonight, as they head to Miami to take on the Heat. Atlanta has played at a much quicker tempo this season, ranking fourth in pace of play and second in points scored per game. The most impressive part is that their play on the defensive end hasn’t been affected by their pace, as they are ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. They draw a pace-down matchup tonight against Miami, who also boasts an elite defense. On the season, the Heat are ranked eighth in defensive efficiency and seventh in fantasy points allowed per game. Even though they are favored by 6.5 points, the Hawks have an implied total of only 103.3, which is 6.3 points below their season average.

Dennis Schroder has been one of the most frustrating fantasy players so far this season. He has had some big outings, but they have all come on nights when you would least expect it. When he has easy matchups, he seems to fall flat on his face. I suppose that means it is good news that he is facing the Heat, as they are ranked first against point guards this season. In all seriousness, Schroder is a deep GPP flier at best tonight. Kent Bazemore has played well in his last three games, but he is still averaging under 28 minutes per game on the season. He draws a difficult matchup against Justise Winslow. Paul Millsap is my favorite play from the Hawks tonight. He is about as matchup-proof of a power forward as you are going to find thanks to his ability to fill all areas of the stat sheet. He is firmly in play on a night that features very few power forward options. Dwight Howard could push for 30+ minutes tonight, but is my third favorite center overall. If I’m paying up at the position, I’m going to find room for Hassan Whiteside or Karl-Anthony Towns.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Dennis Schroder $6,100 $6,300 $10,400 0.93 30.0 0.4 27.9 2.1 28.6% 2.9% 1
Kyle Korver $3,600 $3,700 $8,000 0.62 26.3 1.1 16.4 2.5 16.4% 1.8% 15
Kent Bazemore $4,800 $5,000 $8,900 0.84 27.8 -0.1 23.4 5.4 19.5% 0.5% 5
Paul Millsap $7,400 $7,700 $13,700 1.03 32.0 0.2 32.9 -7.3 26.7% -2.6% 5
Dwight Howard $7,900 $7,200 $12,700 1.26 28.7 0.9 36.1 -2.9 20.9% -5.9% 17
Thabo Sefolosha $4,600 $4,000 $6,000 0.89 24.1 3.1 21.4 -1.9 15.1% 0.1% 5

Elite Plays – Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (GPP), Dwight Howard

Miami Heat

ALERT: Justise Winslow has been ruled OUT for tonight’s game.

The Heat are coming off of a loss last night against the Spurs in San Antonio. They fell behind early and were never able to make up the deficit. They now have a quick turnaround, as they host the visiting Hawks. I see this as a fairly mediocre matchup overall. While the Hawks have been a top five defense this season, they do play at a very fast pace. With Miami being one of the slowest-paced teams in the NBA, they should see a few extra possessions in this one. The Heat may have the lowest implied team total in the slate, but it’s actually 1.3 points above their season average. If you compare that to the rest of the +/- point differentials in the slate, it’s actually the second highest.

Goran Dragic is expected to miss tonight’s game against the Hawks, which really opens the door for a number of plays in Miami’s backcourt. Here are the minutes and fantasy production from the Heat backcourt in the two games that Dragic has missed:

Josh Richardson: 33 minutes and 26.6 fantasy points, 28 minutes and 14.2 fantasy points
Dion Waiters: 19 minutes and 6.2 fantasy points, 36 minutes and 39.9 fantasy points
Tyler Johnson: 29 minutes and 16.6 fantasy points, 33 minutes and 31.6 fantasy points

All three have had one good game and one subpar game without Goran Dragic in the lineup. It should be noted that those two games were against the Jazz and Spurs, which have two of the best defenses in the NBA. I see all three players as elite fantasy options tonight against the Hawks and I actually don’t mind stacking them and playing them in the same lineup. You are basically guaranteeing yourself to get 75+ minutes and all of the primary ball-handling. Even though this isn’t a great matchup, I expect the three to spend some time on the floor together with Justise Winslow playing the four. Winslow is also a borderline elite play tonight given the lack of small forward depth. Last but not least, we have Hassan Whiteside. He has 40+ fantasy point upside regardless of his matchup, but targeting centers against Dwight Howard isn’t my favorite strategy. I slightly prefer Karl-Anthony Towns over Whiteside tonight.

ALERT: Justise Winslow has been ruled OUT for tonight’s game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Josh Richardson $4,000 $4,800 $7,600 0.57 25.3 4.6 14.4 5.7 20.6% 1.0% 27
Dion Waiters $4,300 $4,200 $8,300 0.68 31.6 -1.5 21.6 3.6 24.4% 4.0% 20
Justise Winslow $5,000 $5,500 $8,200 0.71 35.9 -0.3 25.6 1.2 21.6% -3.1% 13
Derrick Williams $3,600 $3,000 $6,800 0.68 13.1 4.9 9.0 4.3 18.5% 1.4% 5
Hassan Whiteside $8,500 $8,300 $13,200 1.27 32.5 2.0 41.2 3.6 24.3% -1.0% 1
Tyler Johnson $4,900 $5,400 $7,900 0.86 30.1 1.2 25.9 -0.1 19.0% -1.8% 27

Elite Plays – Josh Richardson, Dion Waiters, Tyler Johnson, Justise Winslow (FD)

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow (DK)

Charlotte Hornets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Minnesota Timberwolves
charlottenba Vegas Total 206.0 minnesotanba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 102.3
Pace +/- -1.0 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 22 3 13 8 27 2016-17 12 18 10 5 20

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have lost two games in a row, but they still sport an impressive 6-3 record on the season. They are ranked right around the league average in pace of play and points scored per game, but are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on the Wolves in what is expected to be a close game throughout. The Hornets are listed as 1.5-point favorites with an implied total of 103.8 points. On paper, this appears to be a pretty favorable matchup, as the Wolves are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency this season.

Kemba Walker and Isaiah Thomas are the two point guards that have exceeded expectations so far this season. Walker has been tremendous, averaging 39.1 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 31.9%. He still has better splits at home than he does on the road though, which is concerning. This has plagued him his entire career and so far this season there is nearly a ten fantasy point difference per game. I’m still intrigued with Walker in tournaments, but I may look elsewhere in cash games. Nicolas Batum has been a steady producer for the Hornets, averaging 32.5 minutes and 39.1 fantasy points per game. I would be higher on him tonight if not for all of the great values at shooting guard. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is averaging 37.3 minutes in his last three games and provides a high ceiling at his price point. With all of the bigs healthy in Charlotte, there are too many bodies splitting minutes. For now, I am going to avoid the situation entirely.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Kemba Walker $8,300 $7,900 $11,300 1.20 32.5 1.1 39.1 5.4 31.9% 0.6% 22
Nicolas Batum $6,500 $6,800 $10,700 0.88 33.8 1.6 29.8 2.3 21.7% 0.9% 3
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,400 $4,900 $8,600 0.82 30.8 6.5 25.2 -1.5 12.9% -1.4% 13
Marvin Williams $5,000 $5,100 $8,200 0.81 29.1 1.3 23.5 4.2 18.3% 1.8% 8
Cody Zeller $4,000 $3,900 $7,100 0.92 21.8 0.6 20.0 -4.1 18.6% -1.4% 27
Frank Kaminsky $3,800 $3,800 $7,300 0.77 22.6 -2.2 17.3 -0.9 21.7% -1.0% 8
Spencer Hawes $3,900 $3,800 $7,400 1.05 18.0 -2.8 18.9 -2.4 22.1% 0.5% 27

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves are better than their 3-6 record suggests, but they need to start playing better on the defensive end of the floor. Their offense has been rolling, as they are ranked ninth in points scored per game, despite being the 11th slowest paced team in the NBA. They come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs against the Hornets, who have been exceptional on the defensive end of the floor. On the season, Charlotte is ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Wolves have an implied total of only 102.3 points, which is the third lowest in the slate and 5.7 points below their season average.

Even though the matchup isn’t ideal, there are a few plays that pique my interest from the Wolves. We’ll start with Karl-Anthony Towns, who is close to a must play in my cash game lineups. The center position is thin and it’s hard to trust Hassan Whiteside in the second half of a back-to-back. Towns is averaging 35 minutes per game this season, which is well above his playing time from a year ago. I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up averaging 45 fantasy points per game by the end of the season. Ricky Rubio played 34 minutes against the Lakers the other night, so it appears that he is not on a minute restriction. He is an intriguing GPP option at low ownership. The injury to monitor here is Zach LaVine. If he is unable to suit up, Nemanja Bjelica would draw another start in his absence. He made the most of his opportunity the other night, scoring 45 fantasy points in 41 minutes of action. If LaVine is out, Bjelica becomes the top value play on FanDuel, DraftKings, and Rosters. Andrew Wiggins is coming off of a career game as well, scoring 47 actual points against the Lakers. While I like his scoring upside, he draws a difficult matchup against Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. On a night where his ownership should be inflated, I may look to fade Wiggins.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Ricky Rubio $6,300 $5,700 $9,900 0.79 30.1 -0.7 23.7 4.3 17.7% 2.6% 12
Zach LaVine $6,200 $6,200 $9,700 0.83 34.7 3.5 28.8 10.6 22.3% 0.1% 18
Andrew Wiggins $6,900 $7,000 $10,600 0.95 35.5 3.3 33.6 8.9 30.1% 2.0% 10
Gorgui Dieng $5,400 $5,600 $10,600 0.83 30.3 1.8 25.1 -1.7 14.8% -2.8% 5
Karl-Anthony Towns $8,400 $8,200 $14,200 1.11 35.2 2.4 39.0 2.2 26.3% 0.1% 20
Nemanja Bjelica $4,000 $3,800 $6,600 0.80 17.5 4.7 14.1 6.9 19.7% -2.7% 5

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns, Nemanja Bjelica (if Zach LaVine is out)

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins, Gorgui Dieng

Chicago Bulls at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 PM ET

ALERT: Rajon Rondo (ankle) has been downgraded to questionable for tonight’s game.

Chicago Bulls Portland Trail Blazers
chicagonba Vegas Total 212.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Spread 3.0 Vegas Spread -3.0
Team Total 104.8 Team Total 107.8
Pace +/- 1.7 Pace +/- -1.1
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Taj Gibson Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Meyers Leonard Mason Plumlee
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 17 6 16 27 29 2016-17 5 8 21 23 26

Chicago Bulls

ALERT: Rajon Rondo (ankle) has been downgraded to questionable for tonight’s game.

The Bulls have had mixed results through their first ten games, but they sport a 6-4 record overall. They have played at a slightly below-average pace and are ranked 13th in points scored per game. Tonight they head to Portland to take on the Blazers in a game that has shootout potential. The Bulls are listed as 3-point underdogs with the over/under for the game set at 212.5 points. Chicago has an implied total of 104.8 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and close to their average points per game on the season.

Rajon Rondo has seen a small minute boost in his last three games, averaging 31.9 minutes and 26.3 fantasy points during that stretch. Targeting point guards against Damian Lillard has been a profitable strategy in each of the last few seasons and I expect Rondo to be low owned. People have a hard time clicking his name, especially in cash games. I don’t have Rondo listed as an elite play, but he is certainly a strong secondary play. Dwyane Wade is averaging less than 30 minutes per game this season. Until that changes, I will continue to find alternatives at shooting guard. Jimmy Butler has been on fire in his last three games, averaging 54.3 fantasy points. He is finally taking over this team and he remains an elite play on DraftKings at only $8,000. Taj Gibson is a fine cash game option, although he does have a low ceiling. Nikola Mirotic could see a few extra minutes with Doug McDermott out, making him an interesting GPP play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Rajon Rondo $5,500 $5,700 $10,100 0.84 29.3 2.6 24.6 1.7 22.9% -1.8% 17
Dwyane Wade $6,400 $6,400 $10,600 0.97 29.4 2.7 28.5 0.7 27.7% 2.1% 6
Jimmy Butler $8,600 $8,000 $12,500 1.14 34.1 4.3 39.0 15.3 28.4% 4.7% 16
Taj Gibson $5,500 $5,500 $9,100 0.94 27.4 1.9 25.7 -4.1 19.8% -2.0% 27
Robin Lopez $4,400 $4,600 $8,300 0.78 26.5 8.6 20.6 2.8 16.4% 0.6% 29
Nikola Mirotic $4,300 $4,800 $8,300 0.86 22.7 -3.7 19.6 0.5 20.3% -3.1% 27

ALERT: Rajon Rondo (ankle) has been downgraded to questionable for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jimmy Butler (FD), Rajon Rondo, Taj Gibson (Cash), Nikola Mirotic (GPP)

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are looking for their third win in a row. They are 7-4 to start the season and look like a playoff contender in the Western Conference. Their offense has been firing on all cylinders, ranking eighth in pace of play and fourth in points scored per game. They come into tonight’s contest as small favorites against the Bulls in what should be a high scoring games. The Blazers have an implied total of 107.8 points, which is the second highest in the slate. I always like loading up on Portland players when they are playing at home.

Damian Lillard put up a dud against the Clippers, but he has otherwise been tremendous this season. He has scored at least 40 fantasy points in eight of his ten games this season and draws the Rajon Rondo “I tried” defense. Lillard is the top overall play at point guard tonight, even at his elevated price point. C.J. McCollum may draw the defense of Jimmy Butler, who is one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA. I still like McCollum here at home, but see him more as a GPP play given all of the great value options at shooting guard. Maurice Harkless has been playing big minutes with Al-Farouq Aminu out. He is a viable play at small forward in all formats and is my top value at small forward on Rosters. Meyers Leonard is averaging 25 minutes in his last three games and is worth a look as a GPP flier tonight. Mason Plumlee is in that same boat, but again, I prefer to pay up for Karl-Anthony Towns at center in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Damian Lillard $9,500 $9,300 $13,500 1.18 35.9 -1.4 42.5 -6.5 33.2% -2.4% 5
C.J. McCollum $7,400 $7,500 $11,000 0.99 34.5 -0.8 34.2 -2.8 27.1% 1.6% 8
Maurice Harkless $4,600 $5,200 $7,800 0.67 30.7 -0.7 20.5 1.0 14.9% -2.2% 21
Meyers Leonard $3,600 $3,600 $7,200 0.66 16.3 8.7 10.8 7.3 16.8% 1.5% 23
Mason Plumlee $5,100 $5,300 $8,100 0.94 26.3 -0.1 24.7 0.2 18.9% 0.9% 26
Allen Crabbe $3,700 $4,000 $7,300 0.54 30.0 0.4 16.3 1.3 13.0% -0.3% 8
Evan Turner $4,000 $3,900 $8,300 0.66 24.1 0.0 16.0 3.9 18.2% 2.0% 21

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum, Maurice Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Mason Plumlee

Brooklyn Nets at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Los Angeles Lakers
brooklynnba Vegas Total 221.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 221.0
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 107.3 Team Total 113.8
Pace +/- 2.8 Pace +/- 4.9
Proj. Starter Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Trevor Booker Brook Lopez Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov
Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent DvP Rank PG SG SF PF C
2016-17 20 26 17 15 14 2016-17 23 24 27 28 22

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are playing their second game in as many nights, after getting blown out by the Clippers last night. Even though they aren’t the most talented team, they still have more wins than the Pelicans and Sixers combined. Tonight they stay in Los Angeles to take on the Lakers in a game that features the highest over/under in the slate. As long as the Nets can keep this game close, it should be a fantasy goldmine. The Nets have an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the third highest in the slate tonight.

Jeremy Lin has already been ruled out of tonight’s game. Isaiah Whitehead was expected to play last night, but was eventually a late scratch. If he is unable to suit up again tonight, Sean Kilpatrick would continue to man the point guard position. He has excelled all season, averaging 0.91 fantasy points per minute. He did turn the ball over quite a bit last night, but that’s a common theme for point guards against the Clippers. Bojan Bogdanovic and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are both viable small forward punts. The matchup doesn’t really get any better and both players could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight. Trevor Booker is a decent cash game option, but I’d rather take the other power forward in this game. Brook Lopez should be well rested after sitting out last night’s game. He is one of my favorite GPP plays on the board, especially on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
Sean Kilpatrick $5,500 $5,800 $7,700 0.91 26.3 -0.2 24.0 -1.3 28.4% 4.8% 20
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $4,200 $7,900 0.69 28.0 0.2 19.3 -2.7 19.7% -2.9% 26
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,300 $4,500 $8,200 0.69 26.2 0.3 18.1 5.8 15.5% 6.4% 17
Trevor Booker $5,600 $5,900 $7,900 1.03 26.3 -0.6 27.0 -3.8 16.3% -1.3% 15
Brook Lopez $6,800 $6,100 $11,100 1.08 25.7 0.2 27.9 2.8 30.1% -3.8% 14
Justin Hamilton $4,400 $4,400 $6,800 0.76 23.6 -0.4 18.0 -1.7 13.3% -0.4% 14
Joe Harris $3,600 $3,500 $6,000 0.66 23.5 2.7 15.5 2.8 18.4% -2.2% 26

Elite Plays – Brook Lopez (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Sean Kilpatrick, Bojan Bogdanovic, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Trevor Booker

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have been one of the best surprises here in the early part of the season. Luke Walton has this offense rolling right now and they are currently boasting a 6-5 record with some impressive wins. They draw arguably their easiest matchup to date, as they get to face the Nets, who are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. The Lakers are listed as 6.5-point favorites and they have the highest implied total of any team on the board. How many times are we going to be able to say that this season? The Nets are a fantastic matchup for fantasy production, as they push the tempo and have allowed the third most fantasy points per game.

If D’Angelo Russell was seeing 30+ minutes on a regular basis, he would be the most popular point guard in the slate tonight. The Nets are ranked 23rd against the position and Russell has a true usage rate of 30.4%. Given his lack of consistent playing time, I hesitate to recommend him in cash games, but I have a hard time seeing him fail in this matchup. If he is playing well, he will likely play 30+ minutes in a dream matchup. I see Russell as a borderline elite cash game option and a truly elite GPP play. Nick Young and Lou Williams are both in play as well. Both should see minutes in the mid-20s tonight in an uptempo game. Julius Randle has been a tough player to predict, but you have to like his chances against a Nets’ defense that is ranked 21st in rebounding differential. Last but not least, we have Larry Nance. He is back to playing minutes in the low to mid-20s off the bench. Before his concussion, he had scored at least 27 fantasy points in three straight games. This is a good opportunity to buy low on Nance in terms of both ownership and salary.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary Rosters Sal. FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP
D’Angelo Russell $5,800 $6,200 $9,600 0.96 26.8 -1.2 25.9 -3.3 30.4% -1.5% 23
Nick Young $4,200 $4,700 $7,700 0.75 26.4 -1.8 19.9 -2.6 18.1% -0.8% 24
Luol Deng $4,000 $3,900 $7,900 0.68 24.3 -2.6 16.4 -4.9 15.0% -0.3% 27
Julius Randle $6,400 $6,600 $10,500 1.04 28.0 -0.6 29.2 2.2 22.6% 2.0% 28
Timofey Mozgov $3,600 $3,500 $8,300 0.73 21.5 1.4 15.8 -1.2 14.9% -3.4% 22
Lou Williams $5,200 $5,600 $7,900 1.13 23.0 -0.8 26.0 2.9 29.2% 2.6% 24
Jordan Clarkson $4,900 $5,100 $9,000 0.83 26.2 -3.2 21.8 0.1 24.6% -1.1% 24
“(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr $3,800 $4,100 $7,300 0.85 20.7 1.6 17.5 -0.8 12.1% -3.8% 28

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell, Lou Williams, Julius Randle

Secondary Plays – Nick Young, Larry Nance

Rosters Value Plays of the Day

Position Player Rosters Salary
Point Guard D’Angelo Russell $9,600
Shooting Guard Tyler Johnson $7,900
Small Forward Maurice Harkless $7,800
Power Forward Nemanja Bjelica $6,600
Center Mason Plumlee $8,100

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious