NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 7th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
| Dallas Mavericks | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.5 | Implied Team Total | 111.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | Salah Mejri | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 11 | 8 | 30 | 15 | 1 | DvP | 17 | 28 | 2 | 29 | 28 | |
| DRPM | -0.83 | -0.94 | 0.03 | 1.54 | 1.33 | DRPM | N/A | 0.25 | -0.08 | 0.81 | 4.02 | |
Dallas Mavericks
Notable Injuries
Dorian Finney-Smith (Questionable)
We kick off tonight’s ten game slate with an ugly one. The Mavericks have struggled to remain competitive this season. They have lost six games in a row and have a projected point differential of -9.9 per game. They come into tonight’s game as 10-point underdogs against the Wizards in the nation’s capital. Washington has struggled defensively, ranking 25th in points allowed per game. If Dallas can keep the game close, we can give their starters a boost thanks to the matchup.
John Wall and Bradley Beal are the two worst defenders in the Wizards’ starting lineup, so the best place to attack Washington is with the opposing backcourt. Dennis Smith makes an intriguing tournament play. While he doesn’t have the 35-minute upside of some point guards, his price is cheap and his ownership will be low. Wesley Matthews is someone that can play 35 minutes and score 15 fantasy points. He doesn’t have the upside that I like to look for, even though his price is enticing.
Harrison Barnes is typically not a player that finds his way into my lineups. He’s hurt by a lack of peripheral stats and the slow-paced nature of the Mavericks. With that said, he draws an exploitable matchup against the Wizards, who have struggled to contain small forwards. Barnes is only $5,800 on DraftKings and he should play 35+ minutes if the game stays close. I will be avoiding the Mavericks’ frontcourt in all formats with so many viable plays at power forward and center in this slate.
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 97.9 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.5 (15 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 (4 of 20)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.2 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.5 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.1 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.7 (8 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,100 | $5,200 | $10,700 | 22.9 | 27.9 | 0.82 | 25.8% | 46.4% | 11 | -0.83 |
| Wesley Matthews | $4,400 | $4,600 | $8,400 | 20.4 | 33.7 | 0.60 | 15.3% | 54.3% | 8 | -0.94 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,200 | $5,800 | $12,200 | 27.7 | 34.6 | 0.80 | 21.6% | 51.0% | 30 | 0.03 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,800 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 20.8 | 24.6 | 0.84 | 19.4% | 48.7% | 15 | 1.54 |
| Salah Mejri | $3,400 | $3,000 | $6,300 | 11.9 | 10.4 | 1.15 | 8.2% | 57.4% | 1 | 1.33 |
| J.J. Barea | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 22.2 | 22.5 | 0.99 | 25.9% | 54.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith (GPP), Harrison Barnes (DK)
Washington Wizards
Notable Injuries
John Wall (Probable)
The Wizards are large favorites tonight at home against the Mavericks, but I wouldn’t call this a perfect matchup for fantasy production. While Dallas is ranked in the bottom ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential, they play at one of the slowest paces in the NBA. There is also the potential for this game to turn into a blowout. In all honesty, the ten point spread feels a bit low given how bad the Mavericks have played recently.
John Wall is expected to play tonight, after missing one game with a shoulder injury. He gets to square off against a rookie point guard that has struggled on the defensive end of the floor. Given the potential blowout, the pace-down matchup, and the fact that he’s coming back from injury, he makes a fairly easy fade in a large slate. Bradley Beal price is inflated, likely due to the fact that the sites didn’t know Wall’s status when they released their salaries.
Otto Porter is having a career year, but I’m tempering my expectations now that Markieff Morris is back in the lineup. We could see his usage get hurt the most and now the Wizards can bring Kelly Oubre off the bench, which could cut into his minutes. For now, I’m avoiding all three until we see a consistent rotation. Interestingly enough, Marcin Gortat is my favorite play from Washington tonight. The Mavericks are ranked 28th against centers and dead last in rebounding differential this season.
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 112.8 (2 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (3 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.3 (14 of 20)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.8 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 110.1 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -7.4 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,700 | $9,500 | $19,100 | 43.5 | 35.6 | 1.22 | 29.3% | 49.7% | 17 | N/A |
| Bradley Beal | $8,500 | $8,300 | $14,400 | 38.8 | 34.2 | 1.13 | 26.9% | 60.8% | 28 | 0.25 |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 37.8 | 33.0 | 1.14 | 17.3% | 67.8% | 2 | -0.08 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,400 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 15.1 | 16.0 | 0.94 | 23.6% | 34.2% | 29 | 0.81 |
| Marcin Gortat | $5,600 | $5,500 | $10,600 | 28.8 | 31.5 | 0.91 | 13.9% | 61.1% | 28 | 4.02 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,300 | $4,900 | $9,600 | 24.1 | 32.3 | 0.75 | 12.7% | 61.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Marcin Gortat
Secondary Plays – John Wall
Milwaukee Bucks at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET
| Milwaukee Bucks | Cleveland Cavaliers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 107.0 | Implied Team Total | 112.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Malcolm Brogdon | Tony Snell | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | John Henson | Projected Starters | Derrick Rose | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Jae Crowder | Kevin Love | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 29 | 24 | 18 | 19 | 14 | DvP | 23 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 18 | |
| DRPM | -2.53 | -0.77 | 1.57 | 1.37 | 1.93 | DRPM | -0.73 | -0.79 | 0.54 | 1.49 | 2.02 | |
Milwaukee Bucks
Notable Injuries
Mirza Teletovic (Questionable)
The big news in Milwaukee is that they traded Greg Monroe for Eric Bledsoe. He is not going to play tonight, but is tentatively expected to play tomorrow. Come playoff time, a core of Eric Bledsoe, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Malcolm Brogdon, and Jabari Parker is going to be fun to watch. Tonight they head to Cleveland to take on a Cavaliers’ team that can’t stop anyone. On the season, Cleveland is ranked 28th in points allowed per game and 30th in defensive efficiency. Even on the road, the Bucks have an implied total of 107 points.
This will likely be Malcolm Brodgon’s last game before Bledsoe starts eating into his minutes. I still expect there to be plenty of minutes for both players, but their usage will go down playing next to Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Cavaliers are ranked 29th against point guards and we know we like to stream anyone facing Derrick Rose. Brogdon could see minutes in the mid-30s here and his ownership should be low. I’m higher on him than most tonight, but there are so many great options at point guard and shooting guard that it’s difficult to make room for him.
Khris Middleton is averaging over 36 minutes per game with a true usage of 24%. He almost always gets overlooked in DFS and currently grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar plays in my model for tonight’s slate. The price is high, but Cleveland hasn’t been able to defend anyone this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo has had a string of difficult matchups, but we can go right back to the “point god” tonight. He has scored at least 48 fantasy points in four of his last five meetings against LeBron James.
Milwaukee Bucks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.9 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.0 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.1 (8 of 20)
Matchup vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Points Allowed Per Game: 113.4 (28 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.7 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.3 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Malcolm Brogdon | $6,100 | $5,700 | $12,000 | 26.8 | 33.1 | 0.81 | 18.7% | 61.5% | 29 | -2.53 |
| Tony Snell | $4,000 | $3,600 | $7,100 | 17.5 | 32.9 | 0.53 | 9.9% | 72.8% | 24 | -0.77 |
| Khris Middleton | $7,500 | $7,000 | $12,300 | 34.4 | 36.4 | 0.95 | 24.0% | 50.8% | 18 | 1.57 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | $11,700 | $10,800 | $18,200 | 56.5 | 36.9 | 1.53 | 29.9% | 64.3% | 19 | 1.37 |
| John Henson | $5,000 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 19.3 | 20.5 | 0.94 | 9.7% | 52.6% | 14 | 1.93 |
Elite Plays – Khris Middleton (GPP), Giannis Antetokounmpo
Secondary Plays – Malcolm Brogdon, Khris Middleton (Cash)
Cleveland Cavaliers
Notable Injuries
Tristan Thompson (Out)
The Cavaliers have the third worst record in the Eastern Conference and are coming off of a loss against the lowly Hawks. The worst part is that Lebron James is playing at an incredible level and they are still losing to terrible teams. I’ll never doubt any team with LeBron, but there are some issues that they need to fix. Tonight they host the Bucks, who play at a slow pace but struggle on the defensive end of the floor. The Cavaliers have an implied total of 112.5 points, which is the second highest on the board.
Derrick Rose is dirt cheap across the industry, but I’m not falling for that trap in a ten game slate. He may be listed as a point guard, but he plays third-fiddle to LeBron James and Kevin Love in this offense. There is also the risk that he could stub his toe and be out for the game. James has been cheap for most of the season, but is finally priced above $11,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Even with the price hike, he’s one of my favorite plays of the slate. In tournaments, I like pairing him with Giannis Antetokounpo in hopes that this game turns into a shootout.
Jae Crowder has played 33, 33, and 23 minutes over the last three games. He has been the biggest beneficiary of Tristan Thompson absence and in a game where both teams could play small, I expect him to crack the 30 minute mark tonight. He’s a serviceable value play, even though he doesn’t have a high usage rate. The knock on Kevin Love earlier in the year was his lack of minute upside, but he has played at least 32 minutes in three of his last six games. If he plays minutes in the low 30s tonight, I like his chances of paying off his salary on FanDuel ($7,000).
Cleveland Cavaliers Offense
Points Per Game: 108.5 (8 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 112.5 (2 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 4.0 (3 of 20)
Matchup vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.0 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.8 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derrick Rose | $4,500 | $4,800 | $9,900 | 19.9 | 27.0 | 0.74 | 21.9% | 55.3% | 23 | -0.73 |
| J.R. Smith | $3,600 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 12.8 | 27.4 | 0.47 | 12.1% | 37.2% | 3 | -0.79 |
| LeBron James | $11,300 | $11,400 | $21,100 | 54.4 | 37.9 | 1.44 | 29.2% | 68.0% | 7 | 0.54 |
| Jae Crowder | $4,400 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 15.9 | 26.2 | 0.61 | 13.0% | 52.5% | 9 | 1.49 |
| Kevin Love | $7,000 | $7,500 | $12,900 | 31.9 | 28.7 | 1.11 | 21.3% | 57.2% | 18 | 2.02 |
| Dwyane Wade | $4,600 | $4,800 | $9,200 | 21.3 | 22.2 | 0.96 | 22.1% | 46.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kevin Love (FD)
Secondary Plays – Kevin Love (DK & FDRFT), Jae Crowder
New Orleans Pelicans at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| New Orleans Pelicans | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 218.0 |  | Vegas Total | 218.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.0 | Vegas Spread | -1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 108.5 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.5 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.7 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jrue Holiday | E’Twaun Moore | Dante Cunningham | Anthony Davis | DeMarcus Cousins | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 19 | 20 | 26 | 25 | DvP | 6 | 21 | 27 | 18 | 6 | |
| DRPM | -1.67 | 1.64 | -2.76 | 1.69 | 2.43 | DRPM | 1.40 | -1.63 | -0.47 | 3.65 | 0.57 | |
New Orleans Pelicans
Notable Injuries
None
I’m not going to call this a sneaky shootout since the total is set at 218 points, but it could be sneaky given the fact that these two teams haven’t exactly been the best matchups for fantasy production in the last few years. The Pelicans and Pacers are both ranked in the top ten in pace of play and they are both ranked below the league average in points allowed per game. New Orleans is listed as a 1-point favorite with an implied total of 108.5 points, which is significantly higher than their season average.
Jrue Holiday 19% true usage and 0.83 FP/min are far from appealing, but he is averaging close to 38 minutes per game. He has cracked the 40 minute mark in two of his last six games and tonight’s should stay close throughout. If you are looking for a high floor cash game option at his price point, you could do a lot worse than Holiday, who gets to square off against a Pacers’ defense that is ranked 20th in points allowed per game to his position.
I don’t have any interest in the Pelicans’ role players, but will be loading up on the best frontcourt duo in basketball. The Pacers are ranked 26th against power forwards and 25th against centers this season. They are a bottom ten rebounding team and they will be without Domantas Sabonis, which doesn’t help. Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins are both elite plays at their respective positions. If you are having a difficult time deciding between the two on FanDuel, play around with the different options at power forward and center and see which combination you like best. For instance, if you have $20,000 to spend on the two positions, you can compare combinations of Cousins/Aldridge to Gobert/Davis.
New Orleans Pelicans Offense
Points Per Game: 105.2 (15 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.5 (6 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (7 of 20)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 109.1 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.8 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.4 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.6 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jrue Holiday | $7,000 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 31.2 | 37.7 | 0.83 | 19.2% | 48.0% | 20 | -1.67 |
| E’Twaun Moore | $4,200 | $4,100 | $7,800 | 19.3 | 31.8 | 0.61 | 13.5% | 54.5% | 19 | 1.64 |
| Dante Cunningham | $3,200 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 14.2 | 26.4 | 0.54 | 10.1% | 36.6% | 20 | -2.76 |
| Anthony Davis | $11,700 | $11,200 | $20,900 | 53.7 | 36.3 | 1.48 | 25.2% | 63.3% | 26 | 1.69 |
| DeMarcus Cousins | $11,800 | $11,500 | $20,300 | 60.0 | 38.3 | 1.57 | 28.6% | 59.6% | 25 | 2.43 |
| Jameer Nelson | $4,300 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 18.0 | 27.1 | 0.66 | 13.0% | 55.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins
Secondary Plays – Jrue Holiday (Cash)
Indiana Pacers
Notable Injuries
Domantas Sabonis (Out)
The Pacers have been one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule this season. Their offense is concentrated around a few players, they have a consistent rotation, and they have made an effort to push the pace, which has led to a lot of shootouts. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Pelicans, who are ranked seventh in pace of play and 15th in points allowed per game. Indians has an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the fifth highest of the slate.
Darren Collison has been chalk on a few occasions this season and he’s burned many bridges in those outings. We can’t hold biases in fantasy sports because they lead to bad decision making. While he doesn’t draw the best individual matchup against Jrue Holiday, he’s going to play minutes in the low to mid-30s in a game with one of the highest totals on the board. At a price of $6,000 on FanDuel, he deserves consideration in all formats.
Victor Oladipo is too cheap on FanDuel. He has a 27% true usage rate and he’s averaging 38 fantasy points per game. He also draws the best matchup of the five starters, as he’ll likely draw the defense of E’Twaun Moore. At the time of writing this, we are still many hours from lock, but Oladipo is close to a must for me in cash games. Bojan Bogdanovic is a decent value if you are in a pinch at small forward, but he’s not the type of player that I make an effort to force into my lineups.
Domantas Sabonis has been on a tear over the last couple of weeks. With him out, that opens up major minutes and usage in the frontcourt. If they can stay out of foul trouble, Thaddeus Young should be locked into 35+ minutes and Myles Turner could play over 30 minutes for only the second time all year. Granted, foul trouble is an issue and it’s not like they are in great matchups against the likes of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins, but I like both Young and Turner in tournaments.
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 110.3 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (5 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.8 (13 of 20)
Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.6 (15 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.5 (15 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.8 (7 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $6,000 | $6,200 | $12,000 | 30.4 | 32.2 | 0.94 | 19.0% | 59.1% | 6 | 1.40 |
| Victor Oladipo | $7,300 | $8,000 | $14,500 | 38.0 | 32.5 | 1.17 | 27.0% | 60.7% | 21 | -1.63 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,700 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 19.9 | 29.1 | 0.68 | 15.9% | 62.1% | 27 | -0.47 |
| Thaddeus Young | $6,100 | $5,700 | $12,000 | 29.1 | 33.4 | 0.87 | 16.2% | 57.6% | 18 | 3.65 |
| Myles Turner | $7,000 | $7,100 | $12,300 | 36.0 | 27.5 | 1.31 | 20.7% | 57.1% | 6 | 0.57 |
| Lance Stephenson | $3,300 | $3,200 | $6,300 | 14.3 | 19.1 | 0.75 | 19.6% | 32.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Darren Collison (FD), Victor Oladipo (FD), Thaddeus Young (GPP), Myles Turner (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Darren Collison (DK & FDRFT), Victor Oladipo (DK & FDRFT), Bojan Bogdanovic, Thaddeus Young (Cash), Myles Turner (Cash)
Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | Toronto Raptors | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 200.5 |  | Vegas Total | 200.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 10.0 | Vegas Spread | -10.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 95.3 | Implied Team Total | 105.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -3.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jerian Grant | Justin Holiday | Paul Zipser | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Norman Powell | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 4 | 16 | 5 | 16 | 8 | DvP | 21 | 9 | 10 | 22 | 17 | |
| DRPM | 0.62 | -2.21 | -1.29 | 0.84 | 0.71 | DRPM | 0.45 | 0.32 | -0.09 | N/A | 0.24 | |
Chicago Bulls
Notable Injuries
David Nwaba (Out)
Bobby Portis (Active – Suspension)
The Bulls have struggled offensively this season and a matchup against the Raptors isn’t going to help their cause. On the season, Toronto is ranked tenth in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. Chicago is listed as a 10-point underdog on the road and they have the lowest implied team total of the slate. As I often mention in this article, we can afford to be picky in large slates. We shouldn’t feel like we have to target a player from every game or every team.
After Jerian Grant scored 42 fantasy points against the Pelicans in his last outing, he will draw a lot of attention tonight. He makes a great value if we can count on him to play 30+ minutes, but that feels like a stretch. Let’s not forget that Grant played less than 26 minutes in each of the previous three games. With Kris Dunn back in the mix, the Bulls will likely ride the hot hand at point guard. I expect many to look to Grant in cash games, but I see him strictly as a tournament play against Kyle Lowry pesky defense.
David Nwaba is expected to miss an extended period of time with an ankle injury, which opens the door for Paul Zipser and Denvel Valentine. They might be interesting plays moving forward, but this isn’t the best game environment. Justin Holiday deserves a look in tournaments. The best way to attack the Raptors is on the perimeter, as DeMar DeRozan and Norman Powell are both below-average defenders. The only concern with Holiday is that this game could be decided by halftime. With Bobby Portis back from suspension, I’ll take a wait and see approach with this Bulls’ frontcourt.
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 91.9 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 95.3 (20 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (6 of 20)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.8 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerian Grant | $4,900 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 26.9 | 29.2 | 0.92 | 19.8% | 46.3% | 4 | 0.62 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,700 | $5,900 | $12,200 | 28.2 | 35.8 | 0.79 | 21.0% | 46.4% | 16 | -2.21 |
| Paul Zipser | $3,800 | $3,900 | $7,400 | 13.9 | 22.1 | 0.63 | 15.2% | 39.7% | 5 | -1.29 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $6,200 | $6,300 | $12,500 | 30.2 | 32.9 | 0.92 | 19.4% | 57.5% | 16 | 0.84 |
| Robin Lopez | $5,700 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 28.9 | 32.3 | 0.89 | 20.7% | 51.5% | 8 | 0.71 |
| Kris Dunn | $5,100 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 21.2 | 23.1 | 0.92 | 23.8% | 39.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Jerian Grant (GPP), Justin Holiday (GPP)
Toronto Raptors
Notable Injuries
None
The Raptors have been up and down all season. After beating the Jazz in Utah, they came home and lost to a John Wall-less Wizards’ team. Even with their consistency, they should be able to take care of business tonight against the 2-6 Bulls. Unfortunately, this is not a great matchup for fantasy production. On the season, Chicago is ranked 28th in pace of play and fourth in points allowed per game. The combination of a potential blowout and one of the worst projected point differentials (-2.6) is not what we like to see from a team.
As crazy as it sounds, I actually have more interest in the Bulls than I do in the Raptors tonight. Kyle Lowry might be fired up after getting throw out against the Wizards, but his production has been subpar this season. He is only averaging 0.93 FP/min and the slow pace of tonight’s game isn’t going to help. DeMar DeRozan has a high floor and a cheap price tag on DraftKings ($7,600), but this is a ten game slate. We want to feel good about every player in our lineups and the 10-point spread worries me with DeRozan.
Norman Powell has seen a major minutes bump over his last few games and could be worth a look in tournaments. There are too many bodies in the Raptors’ frontcourt that are currently splitting minutes right now. Jonas Valanciunas scored 49 fantasy points against the Bulls on opening night, but the Raptors have limited his playing time since coming back from injury. He’s still fine in tournaments, but we need to see the playing time in the mid to upper-20s before we can trust him in cash games.
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 107.8 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.3 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (16 of 20)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (28 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,500 | $7,200 | $14,500 | 28.5 | 30.6 | 0.93 | 20.2% | 49.7% | 21 | 0.45 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,100 | $7,600 | $14,500 | 35.8 | 34.2 | 1.05 | 27.7% | 57.1% | 9 | 0.32 |
| Norman Powell | $4,200 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 19.3 | 24.0 | 0.80 | 17.1% | 53.2% | 10 | -0.09 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,000 | $5,000 | $9,600 | 22.8 | 26.2 | 0.87 | 16.7% | 61.3% | 22 | N/A |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $4,700 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 20.8 | 19.8 | 1.05 | 16.2% | 62.5% | 17 | 0.24 |
| Delon Wright | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,100 | 17.8 | 23.1 | 0.77 | 16.7% | 58.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK), Norman Powell (GPP), Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)
Charlotte Hornets at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Charlotte Hornets | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 0.0 | Vegas Spread | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.8 | Implied Team Total | 104.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | Pace Projection +/- | 1.2 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Jeremy Lamb | Dwayne Bacon | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Tim Hardaway | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 7 | 17 | 1 | 20 | DvP | 16 | 26 | 26 | 5 | 22 | |
| DRPM | 0.01 | -1.34 | -1.35 | 1.66 | -0.91 | DRPM | -1.14 | -0.88 | N/A | -0.13 | 2.92 | |
Charlotte Hornets
Notable Injuries
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Out)
Dwight Howard (Probable)
The Hornets are a team that plays much better at home than they do on the road. While this is generally true for all teams, the Hornets’ home/road splits are more drastic than most. They are 1-4 away from home this season. Tonight they head to New York to take on the Knicks in a game that features a total of 209.5 points. New York isn’t as bad defensively as you’d expect, ranking 13th in points allowed per game and third in rebounding differential this season. The Hornets currently have an implied total of 104.8 points, which is nearly identical to their season average.
Home/road splits for players are fairly noisy, especially so early into the season. However, Kemba Walker has a long track record of playing better at home than on the road. He’s played five at home this season and has averaged 44 fantasy points per game. He’s played five on the road and has only averaged 30 fantasy points per game. I’m not saying that we can’t play him in a favorable matchup against the Knicks, but we may want to temper expectations just a bit.
Over his last two games, Jeremy Lamb has had his best (53 fantasy points) and worst (18 fantasy points) outings of the season. With Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out again, he has the potential to play minutes in the low 30s and I don’t mind streaming players going up against Tim Hardaway. Given the volatility, Lamb is better suited for tournaments than he is for cash games. Frank Kaminsky hasn’t topped 25 minutes in any of his last four games, but $4,100 on FanDuel is awfully tempting in tournaments.
The redemption season for Dwight Howard has stalled a bit, as he is averaging only 27 fantasy points in his last four games. He is dealing with a foot injury and while he is expected to play, I hate taking unnecessary risks in cash games. The Knicks are beatable down low, but Howard is a better fit for tournaments. Now that I think about it, I don’t like any of the Hornets in a cash game setting.
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.1 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.7 (11 of 20)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.9 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.7 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.2 (17 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,400 | $7,300 | $13,700 | 35.9 | 34.2 | 1.05 | 25.3% | 60.1% | 25 | 0.01 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $5,900 | $5,900 | $12,200 | 29.7 | 30.6 | 0.97 | 22.0% | 58.7% | 7 | -1.34 |
| Dwayne Bacon | $3,800 | $3,500 | $6,900 | 15.9 | 24.8 | 0.64 | 12.8% | 45.2% | 17 | -1.35 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,000 | $3,900 | $8,100 | 17.4 | 24.9 | 0.70 | 12.6% | 59.1% | 1 | 1.66 |
| Dwight Howard | $7,300 | $7,000 | $14,300 | 34.0 | 30.6 | 1.11 | 18.9% | 53.6% | 20 | -0.91 |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,100 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 20.7 | 27.4 | 0.76 | 18.6% | 51.0% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (Cash), Jeremy Lamb (GPP), Frank Kaminsky (FD), Dwight Howard (GPP)
New York Knicks
Notable Injuries
None
The Knicks are looking for their third win in a row. After many wrote them off earlier in the season (myself included), they have really turned it around. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Hornets, who are ranked above the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. While the matchup is a small concern, I’m typically more worried about using players against the Hornets when the game is in Charlotte. The Knicks’ implied total of 104.8 points is identical to their season average.
Jarrett Jack played well for a few games, but we may have bought into the hype a little too early. We shouldn’t forget that he was the third-string point guard on this roster heading into the season. The Knicks want to develop their rookie point guard, Frank Ntilikina, who is averaging over 20 minutes in his last three games. For now, we should avoid the Knicks’ point guard timeshare. Tim Hardaway is averaging 38 fantasy points in his last five games and sees a nice bump with Michael Kidd-Gilchrist out. We can go right back to the Hardaway well in tournaments and potentially even in cash games on FanDuel.
Kristaps Porzingis is the happiest man in New York with Carmelo Anthony gone. Porzingis even dressed up as himself (a unicorn) for Halloween. The is averaging 47 fantasy points per game with an elite true usage of 32%. Marvin Williams is a decent defender, but he’s no match for Porzingis. DFS players are always hesitant to target NBA players when their prices go up, which leads to lower ownership than it actually should. Enes Kanter is intriguing in tournaments, but there are safer options for cash games.
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.7 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.8 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.0 (12 of 20)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.3 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | Minutes | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,400 | $4,400 | $8,700 | 19.3 | 26.2 | 0.74 | 16.5% | 38.0% | 16 | -1.14 |
| Courtney Lee | $4,600 | $4,300 | $8,400 | 21.2 | 31.7 | 0.67 | 14.3% | 51.9% | 26 | -0.88 |
| Tim Hardaway | $6,000 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 26.4 | 33.5 | 0.79 | 21.2% | 52.0% | 26 | N/A |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,800 | $9,400 | $17,600 | 46.7 | 33.5 | 1.39 | 31.7% | 59.0% | 5 | -0.13 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,200 | $6,300 | $13,400 | 29.8 | 25.5 | 1.17 | 18.2% | 64.0% | 22 | 2.92 |
| Kyle O’Quinn | $3,900 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 19.5 | 16.4 | 1.19 | 15.3% | 62.1% | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,300 | $3,800 | $8,200 | 16.0 | 18.6 | 0.86 | 17.0% | 41.4% | N/A | N/A |