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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 13th - Page Three

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-14 11:32:30

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Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:30 PM

Denver Nuggets Portland Trail Blazers
denvernba Vegas Total 216.5 portlandnba Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Sprd 11.0 Vegas Sprd -11.0
Team Proj. 102.8 Team Proj. 113.8
Team Pace 98.10 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Jakarr Sampson Nikola Jokic Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee
Opp. Season 24 18 5 22 27 Opp. Season 21 27 20 26 13
Last 3 Weeks 21 8 10 23 28 Last 3 Weeks 26 24 18 21 11

Denver Nuggets

Record: 33-48 — Road: 15-25 — Last 10: 4-6

I can’t remember the last time that I rostered a Nuggets’ player. They have too many players that are splitting too few of minutes. It’s hard to count on anyone playing more than 30 minutes on a nightly basis. You can look to Nikola Mirotic in tournaments, but again, Cole Aldrich is the supreme leader of the value plays tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Portland Trail Blazers

Record: 43-38 — Home: 27-13 — Last 10: 7-3

The Blazers still have something to play for, as they will secure the fifth seed in the West with a win tonight. They draw a favorable matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 22nd in points allowed per game this season. Overall, this is a great matchup for the Blazers. Damian Lillard is a nice tournament play, but should be faded in cash games given all the value at point guard. C.J. McCollum has the same issue, as there are a number of great shooting guard options.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Maurice Harkless
moe-harkless-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,600
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.7 28.4 9.7 30.8 12.1
FPPG (FD) 13.3 26.6 13.3 28.5 15.3
TO-Adj. Usage 13.3 16.4 3.2 16.3 3.0

Small forward is the one position that doesn’t have a ton of value (with the exception of Marcus Thornton on DraftKings). Harkless stands out if you need to punt the position. He has been in terrific form over his last five games, averaging 28.5 fantasy points in over 30 minutes per contest.

Los Angeles Clippers at Phoenix Suns – 10:30 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Phoenix Suns
laclippersnba Vegas Total 206.0 phoenixnba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd 5.0 Vegas Sprd -5.0
Team Proj. 100.5 Team Proj. 105.5
Team Pace 97.80 Team Pace 100.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers Wesley Johnson Jeff Green Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Cole Aldrich Proj. Starter Ronnie Price Devin Booker P.J. Tucker Jon Leuer Alex Len
Opp. Season 29 30 28 14 10 Opp. Season 5 3 8 11 12
Last 3 Weeks 22 22 23 16 14 Last 3 Weeks 9 1 4 20 3

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 53-28 — Road: 24-16 — Last 10: 9-1

Another team, but the same story. The Clippers are going to rest Chris Paul, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick, and Jamal Crawford tonight. They will likely roll out a similar starting lineup as the other night against the Jazz, only Austin Rivers will start at point guard.

Elite Plays

Cole Aldrich
cole-aldrich-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,000 Salary:$4,200
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.20
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 13.1 18.3 5.2 20.2 7.1
FPPG (FD) 14.8 21.6 6.7 27.8 13.0
TO-Adj. Usage 14.0 11.0 -3.0 13.0 -1.0

Aldrich should be the first person that you start your cash game lineups with tonight. Go ahead, lock him in, I will wait.

Now that we have that covered, let’s get to the why. He is averaging 35+ fantasy points per game as a starter this season and he is averaging an elite 1.13 FP/min. With all of the players resting for the Clippers, he should see 35+ minutes in a favorable matchup against the Suns.

Austin Rivers
austin-rivers-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$3,400
Position:PG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.64 FP/Min:0.69
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 21.7 22.6 0.9 18.9 -2.8
FPPG (FD) 13.8 18.5 4.7 10.4 -3.4
TO-Adj. Usage 16.3 19.1 2.8 17.4 1.2

A lot of these value plays are going to be site-specific. For instance, FanDuel has done a nice job of raising the salaries of these cheap guys. They had no way to know that Rivers would be starting tonight though, so he is only $3,900. He should see 30+ minutes in the best possible matchup for a point guard.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Phoenix Suns

Record: 22-59 — Home: 13-27 — Last 10: 2-8

The Suns have been one of my favorite teams to target recently, but their prices have caught up to their recent level of production. You can find better value on a number of different teams tonight, which is why I will only be looking at the Suns in GPPs with Devin Booker, Alex Len, and Mirza Teletovic being my favorite targets of the bunch.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM

Utah Jazz Los Angeles Lakers
utahnba Vegas Total 194.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 99.5 Team Proj. 94.5
Team Pace 93.20 Team Pace 98.00
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Trey Lyles Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 30 29 27 15 29 Opp. Season 6 2 2 1 2
Last 3 Weeks 29 30 15 12 26 Last 3 Weeks 1 5 4 1 15

Utah Jazz

Record: 40-41 — Road: 16-24 — Last 10: 5-5

As a Jazz fan, I am still shaking my head at how poorly they have played down the stretch of the regular season. They were basically hand-delivered a postseason birth, but they managed to mess it up. They now need a win and a Rockets’ loss to get into the postseason. Rudy Gobert is not expected to play tonight, which should give a boost to both Derrick Favors and Trey Lyles. Both players grade out as solid plays if you need someone to fill out your lineup with, but neither should be considered must starts with all of the value in this slate.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 16-65 — Home: 11-29 — Last 10: 1-9

The only thing that needs to be said about the Lakers is that this is Kobe Bryant final game in the NBA. His farewell tour is finally coming to an end and most of us are expecting him to go out with a bang. The Lakers are going to give him the ball and get out of his way, which makes the rest of his team unplayable in DFS.

Elite Plays

Kobe Bryant
kobe-bryant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:1.00
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.0 23.9 -4.1 23.7 -4.3
FPPG (FD) 25.8 22.3 -3.6 22.0 -3.8
TO-Adj. Usage 27.3 31.0 3.7 31.0 3.6

I can’t confirm this, but I believe the Lakers are going to play a song every time Kobe touches the ball tonight. What is the song you ask? It goes like this – “Move B****, get out the way!” He is going to get the ball on nearly every possession and I’m expecting him to put up 25+ shots. He will also play all of the minutes that he can handle. His ownership will be inflated, but how do you not take a chance on Kobe in his final NBA game?

Secondary Plays

NONE

Memphis Grizzlies at Golden State Warriors – 10:30 PM

Memphis Grizzlies Golden State Warriors
memphisnba Vegas Total 212.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Sprd 18.5 Vegas Sprd -18.5
Team Proj. 97.0 Team Proj. 115.5
Team Pace 95.60 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Farmar Vince Carter Lance Stephenson Matt Barnes Zach Randolph Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut
Opp. Season 22 9 15 17 20 Opp. Season 11 5 11 16 5
Last 3 Weeks 11 7 22 26 19 Last 3 Weeks 12 9 7 30 20

Memphis Grizzlies

Record: 42-39 — Road: 16-24 — Last 10: 1-9

The Grizzlies are the only thing that stands in-between the Warriors and NBA history. With a spread of 18.5 points, Memphis is not expected to put up much of a fight in this one. The Grizzlies are still fighting for seeding, but they can be avoided tonight in DFS.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Golden State Warriors

Record: 72-9 — Home: 38-2 — Last 10: 8-2

If the Warriors win tonight, they will break the all time single season win record. While I don’t know how long the starters will stay in the game if they end up getting ahead by 25, you have to think that they will see 30+ minutes in a very important game for the franchise. With that in mind, you can look to Stephen Curry, Draymond Green, and Klay Thompson in tournaments. All three are secondary cash game targets though.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious