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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, April 13th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-04-14 02:31:14

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Chicago Bulls
philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd 10.0 Vegas Sprd -10.0
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 109.0
Team Pace 100.30 Team Pace 98.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Proj. Starter Justin Holiday Jimmy Butler Doug McDermott Nikola Mirotic Cristiano Felicio
Opp. Season 27 16 24 24 21 Opp. Season 26 22 29 28 30
Last 3 Weeks 19 14 16 22 12 Last 3 Weeks 14 28 30 15 27

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 10-71 — Road: 3-37 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers may not have anything to play for, but they only have so many healthy bodies. Even if tonight’s game against the Bulls turns into a blowout, I expect their starters to still see heavy minutes. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Bulls haven’t been particularly good at defending any position outside of shooting guard. Carl Landry traveled with the team, but is not expected to play tonight.

Elite Plays

Nerlens Noel
nerlens-noel-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$6,400
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.94 FP/Min:1.01
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.3 31.9 2.6 31.9 2.6
FPPG (FD) 27.6 32.7 5.1 32.7 5.1
TO-Adj. Usage 14.4 15.2 0.8 15.2 0.8

Noel is playing all of the minutes that he can handle right now and he is a player that averages over a FP/min. I always love targeting high FP/min players that are expected to see a boost in minutes. Noel is still cheap and he draws a fantastic matchup against a beat up Bulls’ frontcourt.

Jerami Grant
jerami-grant-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$4,800
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.79 FP/Min:0.84
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 26.7 26.1 -0.6 30.3 3.6
FPPG (FD) 21.0 22.6 1.5 24.7 3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 14.9 19.4 4.6 18.6 3.7

Grant couldn’t catch a break last night. He only played six minutes in the first half thanks to three quick fouls. He had the same problem in the second half and only ended up playing 15 minutes. Most people will be off of him tonight, but he is actually one of my favorite plays on the board. I expect a huge bounce back game from him tonight.

Secondary Plays

Robert Covington
robert-covington-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,900
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 28.2 32.3 4.1 35.2 7.0
FPPG (FD) 24.5 31.9 7.5 33.6 9.2
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 19.8 3.0 20.0 3.3

We know the type of upside that Covington provides when he is given extended playing time. The problem is that his price has caught up to his recent level of production. He is still a strong play in all league formats, but there are better plays dollar for dollar.

Ishmael Smith
ishmael-smith-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,700 Salary:$6,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.96 FP/Min:1.02
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.0 34.8 5.8 35.3 6.3
FPPG (FD) 27.8 32.2 4.3 32.0 4.2
TO-Adj. Usage 21.2 17.4 -3.8 17.3 -3.9

Targeting point guards against the Bulls has been a profitable DFS strategy this season. I would love to use Smith against the Bulls tonight, but there are so many great point guard options that it is tough to do. Dollar for dollar, he isn’t the best value at his position.

Chicago Bulls

Record: 41-40 — Home: 25-15 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bulls are going to be missing a lot of players in their season finale. Jimmy Butler is expected to suit up, but the Bulls said that he will play limited minutes. The Bulls want to get a look at some of their younger players tonight, and this is certainly the matchup to do it. On the season, the Sixers are ranked 28th in points allowed per game, 30th in rebounding differential, and 29th in fantasy points allowed per game. Bobby Portis and Doug McDermott are both intriguing GPP plays.

Elite Plays

Nikola Mirotic
nikola-mirotic-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,200 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.96
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 24.7 28.0 3.3 29.1 4.4
FPPG (FD) 22.0 23.7 1.7 26.0 4.1
TO-Adj. Usage 17.4 17.9 0.5 18.0 0.5

Mirotic is going to be the focal point of the Bulls’ offense. In terms of expectations, he has had a down season, but he has a nice chance to end the season on a high note. Not only are the Sixers one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, but they are also ranked dead last in rebounding differential.

Secondary Plays

NONE

Detroit Pistons at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers
detroitnba Vegas Total 194.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 194.0
Vegas Sprd 1.5 Vegas Sprd -1.5
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 97.8
Team Pace 97.40 Team Pace 95.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Steve Blake Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Matthew Dellavedova Jordan McRae Richard Jefferson Channing Frye Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 18 8 6 2 1 Opp. Season 13 6 3 13 13
Last 3 Weeks 20 6 18 11 10 Last 3 Weeks 27 2 2 17 23

Detroit Pistons

Record: 43-38 — Road: 17-23 — Last 10: 6-4

With a loss last night, the Pistons are now locked into the eighth seed in the Eastern Conference. They are going to have to face the Cavaliers tonight and then again in the first round of the playoffs. With nothing to play for on either side, this could be a good game to just avoid altogether. There are so many great fantasy options tonight that it can sometimes help to just eliminate games completely to cut down on the potential player pool. Reggie Jackson is not expected to play tonight and I wouldn’t be surprised if the other starters all saw limited minutes.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 57-24 — Home: 33-7 — Last 10: 6-4

The Cavaliers have the one seed locked up in the East, so they have decided to rest all of their key players tonight. LeBron James, Kyrie Irving, Kevin Love, J.R. Smith, and Iman Shumpert will all sit out tonight, which means the Cavaliers’ will roll out a starting lineup full of fringe NBA players. There are some decent value plays here in Tristan Thompson and Matthew Dellavedova, but value is not something that is hard to find tonight. They would barely crack my top ten list of best values.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards
atlantanba Vegas Total 209.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd -7.5 Vegas Sprd 7.5
Team Proj. 108.3 Team Proj. 100.8
Team Pace 99.30 Team Pace 100.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Ramon Sessions Marcus Thornton Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 22 15 21 9 9 Opp. Season 8 19 14 12 23
Last 3 Weeks 30 4 9 29 9 Last 3 Weeks 24 10 14 10 22

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 48-33 — Road: 21-19 — Last 10: 7-3

The Hawks are still fighting for homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They can move up to the three seed if the Heat lose and they can secure the four seed with a win themselves. They have a lot to play for tonight, as they take on the short-handed Wizards in Washington. They Hawks are projected to score 108.3 points, which is the seventh highest team total on the board. While I like the spot for this offense as a whole, there are better plays in a points-per-dollar sense.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,500
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.15 FP/Min:1.23
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.7 33.8 1.1 36.7 4.0
FPPG (FD) 37.6 44.4 6.9 48.2 10.6
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 19.5 -0.4 20.0 0.1

Millsap deserves consideration for two reasons tonight. First, we have to spend up somewhere. And second, he has been on an absolute tear recently. Over his last five games, he is averaging 48.2 fantasy points. It also helps that the Hawks still have a lot to play for with homecourt advantage on the line.

Washington Wizards

Record: 40-41 — Home: 21-19 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards are one of the many teams that is playing short-handed tonight. They are expected to sit John Wall, Bradley Beal, and Nene Hilario for their final game of the season. While I never love targeting players against the Hawks (ranked sixth in points allowed per game), the injuries do open up a couple of nice value plays in the Wizards’ backcourt.

Elite Plays

Ramon Sessions
ramon-sessions-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$5,200
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.84 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 20.2 22.2 2.0 30.0 9.8
FPPG (FD) 17.0 21.2 4.2 33.7 16.7
TO-Adj. Usage 18.5 19.3 0.8 20.4 1.9

Sessions’ price has come up across the industry and while I don’t love the matchup against the Hawks, he has to be considered one of the top value plays on the board. He has really played well with John Wall out of the lineup this season and he should see close to 35 minutes tonight against Atlanta.

Secondary Plays

Marcus Thornton
marcus-thornton-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$4,000 Salary:$3,500
Position:SG Position:SF
FP/Min:0.87 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 18.0 14.4 -3.6 22.3 4.3
FPPG (FD) 15.6 13.6 -2.0 21.6 6.0
TO-Adj. Usage 21.4 19.6 -1.9 20.4 -1.0

I’m interested to see what Thornton’s ownership will be tonight. He is coming off of a huge outing the other night against the Nets and he is still close to minimum salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings. While I like the price, I’m not sure he makes the cut when I prioritize my value plays.

Indiana Pacers at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM

Indiana Pacers Milwaukee Bucks
indiananba Vegas Total 201.5 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 201.5
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 103.0
Team Pace 99.00 Team Pace 96.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis Solomon Hill Lavoy Allen Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Rashad Vaughn Khris Middleton Jabari Parker Greg Monroe
Opp. Season 7 23 26 18 26 Opp. Season 9 12 4 8 16
Last 3 Weeks 13 15 24 25 30 Last 3 Weeks 10 26 1 5 16

Indiana Pacers

Record: 44-37 — Road: 18-22 — Last 10: 6-4

With a win last night, the Pacers locked up the seven seed in the East, which means they get to avoid a first round playoff series against the Cavaliers. They don’t have anything to play for tonight, which is why they are expected to rest Paul George. In theory, George Hill and Monta Ellis should both see a nice usage boost, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Pacers decided to rest those playes as well. With so many great plays in this massive slate, I will be avoiding all things Pacers.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

Milwaukee Bucks

Record: 33-48 — Home: 23-17 — Last 10: 3-7

The Bucks have been a fun team to watch over the last month of the season. They draw a tough matchup in their finale, as they square off against a very good defensive team in the Pacers. The Bucks are still projected to score 103 points though, which does give them the eighth highest projected point differential on the board. I don’t mind looking at Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, or Jabari Parker in tournaments, but there are better plays at their respective positions for cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE

New Orleans Pelicans at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

New Orleans Pelicans Minnesota Timberwolves
neworleansnba Vegas Total 213.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 213.5
Vegas Sprd 9.5 Vegas Sprd -9.5
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 111.5
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Toney Douglas James Ennis Luke Babbitt Dante Cunningham Omer Asik Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 25 20 16 10 6 Opp. Season 17 26 18 20 28
Last 3 Weeks 25 13 6 8 8 Last 3 Weeks 7 27 28 28 4

New Orleans Pelicans

Record: 30-51 — Road: 9-31 — Last 10: 4-6

After having very few fantasy options outside of Anthony Davis for most of the season, the Pelicans have been a nice source of value over the last few weeks. They continue to lose players to injuries; the latest being Alexis Ajinca. The Pelicans draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Wolves, who are ranked 23rd in points allowed per game this season. If this slate was being played a few weeks ago, there would be a few options on my radar here. However, with all of the value opening up, there is only one player that I am targeting from the Pelicans.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Tim Frazier
tim-frazier-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,800 Salary:$5,900
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 14.1 30.3 16.2 32.0 17.9
FPPG (FD) 12.1 32.6 20.5 36.0 24.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.7 20.0 3.3 21.3 4.6

In a vacuum, Frazier deserves to be listed as an elite play tonight. I really want to find a spot for Frazier in my lineups tonight, but there are just too many cheap guard plays that grade out as better values. Frazier is certainly a strong GPP play though, as he is averaging 36 fantasy points over his last five games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 28-53 — Home: 13-27 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wolves are coming off of a thumping against the Rockets the other night. They will look to end their season on a high note, as they take on the D-League Pelicans at home. The Wolves are listed as 9.5-point favorites with a generous team total of 111.5 points. While their starter’s minutes have been in flux recently, they have no reason to limit them tonight. The Wolves present some interesting GPP plays, but outside of Karl-Anthony Towns, I’m not looking at any of them in cash games.

Elite Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,700 Salary:$8,800
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.22
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.0 36.1 4.1 36.4 4.4
FPPG (FD) 36.3 38.8 2.5 39.4 3.1
TO-Adj. Usage 20.3 20.8 0.5 21.2 0.9

My two favorite center plays tonight are Towns and Cole Aldrich. I would only consider targeting Towns in two scenarios. First, if you are looking to fade Aldrich in a GPP. And second, if you are playing on a site that allows you to play two centers. Towns has incredible upside and I expect him to play minutes in the mid to upper-30s, but you can’t go that route on a single center site like FanDuel.

Secondary Plays

NONE

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious