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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-19 03:30:41

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Portland Trail Blazers at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Charlotte Hornets
portlandnba Vegas Total 216.5 charlottenba Vegas Total 216.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 110.8
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Al-Farouq Aminu Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 16 28 12 8 28 Adj. DvP 12 9 26 28 23
DRPM -0.87 0.81 1.81 0.28 2.25 DRPM -2.60 -2.21 0.61 2.93 0.61

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have lost two games in a row and would be out of the playoffs if the regular season ended today. While tonight’s opponent has also been struggling, Charlotte is an above-average defensive team, ranking 11th in points allowed per game and 15th in rebounding differential. The Blazers come into the game as 5-point underdogs with an implied total of 105.8 points, which is the tenth lowest in the slate. This is one of those situations where I don’t hate the matchup as a whole, but none of the individual players stand out as elite options in a nine game slate. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are both affordable on DraftKings, but neither player is going to crack my main lineup on the site. Lillard is an easy fade on FanDuel where we can only roster two points guards and McCollum is way too expensive over there. My favorite play here is Mason Plumlee and he is more of a DraftKings’ play at $5,600. We saw a stretch of games where he was consistently seeing minutes in the 30s, but blowouts have taken a toll on all of the starter’s minutes. Plumlee has 40-fantasy point type of upside and the Hornets are ranked 28th against centers this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,400 $8,200 1.13 35.6 -3.3 40.3 -6.4 32.3% 2.1% 16 -0.87
C.J. McCollum $8,300 $7,300 1.00 34.5 -4.1 34.6 -0.8 28.2% 1.0% 28 0.81
Maurice Harkless $4,400 $4,100 0.71 30.5 -5.5 21.8 -7.2 15.6% -1.2% 12 1.81
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,600 $5,100 0.75 27.9 1.3 20.9 2.2 15.3% 4.6% 8 0.28
Mason Plumlee $6,300 $5,600 1.05 27.6 -3.4 29.0 -3.9 20.0% -0.9% 28 2.25
Evan Turner $4,400 $4,100 0.79 25.6 -1.0 20.1 3.3 20.1% 0.8% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Mason Plumlee (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – Damian Lillard (DK), C.J. McCollum (DK), Mason Plumlee (DK Cash)

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have lost five games in a row and seven of their last ten. Much like the Blazers, if the regular season ended today, they would find themselves on the outside looking in when it comes to the playoffs. While there are some issues in Charlotte that need to be addressed, you have to love their matchup tonight against the Blazers. On the season, Portland is ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Hornets have an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 5.8 points above their season average.

Given their matchup against the Blazers, we can give the Hornets’ offense a sizable boost as a whole. Kemba Walker is priced under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and we know that he is much better at home than he is on the road. He also draws a nice matchup against Damian Lillard, who has a DRPM of -2.60 on the season. Walker is an elite play in a vacuum, but there are only so many point guard spots available on FanDuel (2) and DraftKings (3). Nicolas Batum is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate. Everyone is going to pay up for James Harden and Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD) at shooting guard, which should help lower Batum’s ownership. He has triple-double type of upside against this defense and it doesn’t hurt that he has a little revenge narrative brewing against his former team. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist should be locked into 32-34 minutes with Jeremy Lamb out. He is a viable play on FanDuel at $4,800. Marvin Williams is a player that I rarely use in DFS, but he does grade out as a decent value at power forward. Finally, we have Cody Zeller, who has played at least 31 minutes in each of his last three games. He is an elite play against a Blazers’ frontcourt that is ranked 23rd against centers and 24th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,900 $7,700 1.08 33.9 4.8 36.7 -2.4 30.7% 1.0% 12 -2.60
Nicolas Batum $7,400 $7,400 0.97 34.5 0.2 33.4 0.6 23.3% 0.3% 9 -2.21
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,800 $5,100 0.75 29.6 4.9 22.2 1.0 14.4% -2.2% 26 0.61
Marvin Williams $4,600 $4,600 0.75 27.3 0.1 20.4 0.3 17.4% 1.5% 28 2.93
Cody Zeller $5,100 $5,200 0.86 26.7 6.7 23.1 6.0 16.5% 2.4% 23 0.61
Frank Kaminsky $3,700 $3,600 0.80 24.3 -1.5 19.4 -4.9 20.9% 0.5% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker, Cody Zeller, Nicolas Batum (GPP), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (FD)

Secondary Plays – Nicolas Batum (Cash), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (DK), Marvin Williams

Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Philadelphia 76ers
torontonba Vegas Total 215.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 215.0
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Team Total 110.8 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- 0.7 Pace +/- -0.7
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Sergio Rodriguez Nik Stauskas Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 19 10 17 5 25 Adj. DvP 8 14 13 24 7
DRPM -1.61 -1.20 2.68 0.31 1.98 DRPM 0.85 -1.85 0.92 0.62 -0.45

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors decided to rest Kyle Lowry 15 minutes before lineups locked last night. Thankfully, there wasn’t a game that started at 7:00 PM ET, or the DFS world would have gone into a frenzy. It was an interesting slate, as the Lowry news basically forced everyone onto the same plays. There hasn’t been an update from Toronto yet today, but we shouldn’t be surprised if they decide to rest DeMar DeRozan or DeMarre Carroll here. They should be able to pick up a win against Philadelphia either way. Obviously, if DeRozan is ruled out, that would dramatically change the entire slate. The Raptors come into the game with an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate.

This is all speculation at this point, but if the Raptors decide to rest DeMar DeRozan (who played 37 minutes last night), Kyle Lowry would become the top point-per-dollar point guard in the slate. DeRozan’s absence would also give a boost to Terrence Ross, Cory Joseph, and DeMarre Carroll. All three would become borderline elite plays in that scenario. If DeRozan is active, I will likely be avoiding him in the second half of a back-to-back. I would still recommend Lowry, but he would become more of a secondary play in this slate. Carroll only played 26 minutes last night, but he was in foul trouble and didn’t see the court in the fourth quarter. Assuming he is active, he should play 30+ minutes tonight in a favorable matchup against Philadelphia. Carroll remains an elite play on FanDuel, where he is still too cheap. As for the bigs of Toronto, it really just depends on who is available. Patrick Patterson and Lucas Nogueira are both listed as questionable. If one is out and the other is active, that player would become a great value play against the Sixers. Jonas Valanciunas remains a fine tournament play, but last night was a great example of why he shouldn’t be trusted in cash games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,800 $8,500 1.08 37.2 -5.2 40.1 -0.9 26.4% -2.1% 19 -1.61
DeMar DeRozan $9,000 $8,300 1.16 35.4 -3.8 40.9 1.5 34.5% 3.9% 10 -1.20
DeMarre Carroll $4,200 $5,300 0.70 26.5 0.9 18.6 7.1 15.4% 4.8% 17 2.68
Pascal Siakam $3,500 $3,000 0.66 17.6 -4.9 11.6 -1.1 12.4% -1.1% 5 0.31
Jonas Valanciunas $5,700 $5,900 0.96 26.9 0.3 25.8 1.4 18.3% -0.4% 25 1.98
Cory Joseph $3,900 $3,400 0.80 22.5 5.5 17.9 12.8 21.4% 2.2% 19 N/A
Terrence Ross $3,700 $3,600 0.78 21.9 6.0 17.0 2.9 18.9% -3.8% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are playing their best basketball of the season, winning six of their last ten games. They aren’t going to be a playoff team this season, but they could make a run at the postseason next year. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked 16th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Sixers have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is 4.8 points above their season average. We should be happy that this game tips off at 7:00 PM ET tonight, because Joel Embiid and T.J. McConnell are both listed as questionable. Obviously, these two players could change the slate dramatically. If Embiid is unable to suit up, Ersan Ilyasova would become an elite play in all formats. I would be hesitant to go back to Jahlil Okafor though, because he experience soreness after playing 35 minutes the other night. If Embiid is active (which I expect him to be), he grades out as an elite play in all formats, especially on DraftKings where he is power forward-eligible. If McConnell is unable to suit up, Sergio Rodriguez becomes a lock and load play. In his spot start on Monday, he played 32 minutes and scored 26 fantasy points. I am off of the Robert Covington train for now, but if you know me, I will be back on him soon enough.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Sergio Rodriguez $4,100 $4,600 0.80 25.6 -2.8 20.6 -2.1 24.0% -0.1% 8 0.85
Nik Stauskas $3,500 $3,500 0.58 26.3 0.3 15.2 -3.4 16.5% -1.5% 14 -1.85
Robert Covington $5,300 $5,500 0.76 29.9 -3.8 22.7 -2.0 17.5% -1.6% 13 0.92
Ersan Ilyasova $5,800 $5,400 0.88 27.4 0.4 24.1 -0.9 22.0% 1.3% 24 0.62
Joel Embiid $8,400 $8,400 1.37 25.3 2.7 34.6 10.1 34.8% -1.4% 7 -0.45
T.J. McConnell $5,400 $5,200 0.79 22.3 4.5 17.6 3.0 19.1% -2.3% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Washington Wizards
memphisnba Vegas Total 207.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 2.5 Vegas Spread -2.5
Team Total 102.3 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- -3.2
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Chandler Parsons JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 17 15 23 5 Adj. DvP 9 6 1 2 2
DRPM -0.22 -0.71 1.33 1.10 1.46 DRPM -1.28 2.23 0.22 0.97 1.20

Memphis Grizzlies

The Grizzlies are one of those teams that we hate to see on the schedule. It’s not that I don’t like their style of basketball, it just isn’t conducive to fantasy production. Tonight they head to Washington to take on a Wizards’ team that is ranked 22nd in points allowed per game this season. The Grizzlies have an implied total of 102.3 points, which is 2.7 points above their season average. While it’s nice to see that they have a positive projected point differential, their implied total is still the fourth lowest in the slate. There are only two plays on my radar from Memphis in this one. The first is Mike Conley, who has played at least 35 minutes and has scored at least 35 fantasy points in each of his last six games. John Wall is not a terrible defender, but Conley’s recent play puts him in consideration for tournaments. The second play is Marc Gasol, who is only $7,200 on DraftKings. Gasol is a high usage center that can fill up all areas of the stat sheet. He is more of a price play than anything else though, as the Wizards have been tough on opposing centers. Zach Randolph has played well recently, but his price is a bit too much for a player that we can only project to play 23-27 minutes a night.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $7,800 $7,500 1.04 32.4 4.8 33.8 8.2 29.4% -0.2% 3 -0.22
Tony Allen $4,700 $4,700 0.75 28.0 -1.3 21.1 0.3 17.6% 0.4% 17 -0.71
Chandler Parsons $3,500 $3,300 0.64 17.8 0.7 11.4 3.1 19.8% 2.4% 15 1.33
JaMychal Green $4,400 $4,300 0.73 29.2 -2.4 21.3 -3.8 14.2% 0.3% 23 1.10
Marc Gasol $8,100 $7,200 1.06 34.0 2.7 36.0 -0.9 27.8% -3.8% 5 1.46
Zach Randolph $6,100 $6,000 1.13 23.5 4.1 26.6 4.8 29.4% 1.0% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Mike Conley, Marc Gasol (DK)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and are finally starting to play up to the level of talent that they have on their roster. On paper, they draw one of the worst matchups possible, as the Grizzlies are ranked 28th in pace of play and third in points allowed per game. The sportsbooks aren’t overly concerned about the matchup though, as the Wizards have an implied total of 104.8 points. With the dynamic pricing on DraftKings, this is a really sneaky spot to target the Wizards. John Wall is averaging 44.6 fantasy points per game and has the best individual matchup of the five starters. Mike Conley is the only Grizzlies’ starter that has a negative DRPM. At $8,600, I will have quite a bit of exposure to Wall in tournaments and I wouldn’t completely rule him out as a cash game option. Bradley Beal is also worth a look at $6,400. With his recent play, he could easily be $7,000 on DraftKings. I will likely be avoiding the Wizards as a whole on FanDuel. However, If you take away the matchup and saw that the Wizards were projected to score 104.8 points at home, you would love the idea of targeting Wall and Beal at their respective price points on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,100 $8,600 1.23 36.2 -4.0 44.6 -3.1 34.5% 0.7% 9 -1.28
Bradley Beal $7,000 $6,400 0.93 34.2 -3.3 31.9 5.7 26.6% 2.7% 6 2.23
Otto Porter $5,900 $5,800 0.83 33.8 -1.4 28.0 -2.0 15.4% 1.1% 1 0.22
Markieff Morris $6,000 $6,100 0.80 31.4 2.6 25.1 9.9 19.9% -0.5% 2 0.97
Marcin Gortat $5,800 $5,700 0.83 35.4 -8.2 29.4 -8.1 14.1% 1.9% 2 1.20

Elite Plays – John Wall (DK GPP), Bradley Beal (DK GPP)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (DK Cash), Bradley Beal (DK Cash)

New York Knicks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

New York Knicks Boston Celtics
newyorknba Vegas Total 220.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 105.3 Team Total 114.8
Pace +/- -0.4 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Ron Baker Mindaugas Kuzminskas Carmelo Anthony Joakim Noah Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 19 20 17 21 Adj. DvP 7 29 5 26 27
DRPM -4.42 -1.96 1.11 1.94 1.31 DRPM -2.26 0.50 -0.05 -1.52 1.38

New York Knicks

The Knicks continue to find new ways to lose basketball games and the Carmelo Anthony Jackson feud is alive and well again. Basically, it is not a great time to be a Knicks’ fan. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics in a game where they are listed as 9.5-point underdogs. This is a slightly favorable matchup overall though, as Boston is ranked 14th in points allowed per game, 20th in defensive efficiency, and 27th in rebounding differential. Kristaps Porzingis has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest and Joakim Noah is listed as questionable. Derrick Rose is a low-owned tournament option on my radar tonight. As I love to mention, Isaiah Thomas has the lowest DRPM of any player in the NBA this season. Rose could potentially see a lot of Avery Bradley though, so he is strictly a GPP play. Carmelo Anthony sees a sizable usage boost with Porzingis off the floor. He does draw a tough matchup against Jae Crowder though, and the potential blowout is concerning. Ron Baker is expected to start again tonight, after scoring 20 fantasy points in his last start. For now, I will let everyone else chase those points. Mindaugas Kuzminskas played 38 minutes against the Hawks and stands out as a nice value at small forward. If Noah is able to suit up, you have to like his upside against a Celtics’ team that is ranked 27th in rebounding differential. If Noah is ruled out, Kyle O’Quinn will become the chalk value play at center.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,200 $6,300 0.89 31.9 0.0 28.5 -1.4 28.1% -0.3% 18 -4.42
Ron Baker $3,700 $3,400 0.80 10.8 1.7 8.6 2.7 19.4% -2.0% 19 -1.96
Mindaugas Kuzminskas $3,900 $4,300 0.76 13.0 17.2 9.9 12.7 19.1% -1.9% 20 1.11
Carmelo Anthony $7,700 $8,000 1.06 33.2 -2.0 35.1 -0.3 29.1% -0.3% 17 1.94
Joakim Noah $5,100 $5,100 0.95 23.1 4.9 21.9 6.1 14.2% -1.9% 21 1.31
Kyle O’Quinn $4,600 $4,100 1.13 15.4 -0.8 17.5 5.3 18.9% 8.4% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Mindaugas Kuzminskas (FD), Kyle O’Quinn (if Noah is out)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (GPP), Carmelo Anthony, Joakim Noah (if active)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won three games in a row and eight of their last ten. At the beginning of the season, I thought they were one of the only teams that could give the Cavaliers a good series in the playoffs and that’s starting to come to fruition. They draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Knicks, who are ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Celtics have an implied total of 114.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 7.8 points above their season average.

With Kristaps Porzingis out tonight, I expect a lot of small ball from both of these teams. We should see Marcus Smart play 30+ minutes in this one. He is too expensive to target in DFS, but I wanted to point that out in case anyone was looking at Amir Johnson. Isaiah Thomas is on an incredible run, but there is no way I can pay $9,700 for him on FanDuel. He is certainly in play at $8,700 on DraftKings, but there are a handful of point guards that I prefer over him in a point-per-dollar sense. Avery Bradley played 33 minutes in his first game back from injury and is only $5,900 on DraftKings. He’s never a player that garnishes a lot of ownership, but I like his high floor for cash games. Jae Crowder is averaging over 30 fantasy points in his last three games, but he doesn’t stand out as a great option at small forward. There will likely be a lot of buzz around Al Horford and Kelly Olynyk against a beatable Knicks’ frontcourt. While I will have a little exposure to both in tournaments, there are better cash game targets in the slate.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $9,700 $8,700 1.19 33.9 1.2 40.2 4.2 35.0% 4.7% 7 -2.26
Avery Bradley $6,400 $5,900 0.88 34.9 -2.1 30.8 -15.7 22.3% -6.6% 29 0.50
Jae Crowder $5,600 $5,600 0.76 31.8 0.7 24.3 6.6 16.1% 0.3% 5 -0.05
Amir Johnson $3,700 $3,900 0.80 20.4 -2.7 16.3 -6.5 14.5% -6.3% 26 -1.52
Al Horford $7,300 $6,900 1.04 33.0 0.7 34.2 -1.1 22.9% -2.6% 27 1.38
Marcus Smart $5,600 $4,800 0.75 30.3 3.1 22.8 -3.0 19.9% -0.9% 7 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,300 $4,500 0.86 21.0 6.0 18.1 13.6 18.6% -1.6% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Avery Bradley (DK), Jae Crowder, Al Horford, Kelly Olynyk

Milwaukee Bucks at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Houston Rockets
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 226.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 226.0
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 109.5 Team Total 116.5
Pace +/- 2.6 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Giannis Antetokounmpo Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Jabari Parker John Henson Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Corey Brewer Trevor Ariza Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 21 25 10 29 13 Adj. DvP 4 16 29 13 9
DRPM 1.85 -1.54 0.54 1.16 0.87 DRPM 2.61 -0.25 -0.68 -1.54 1.50

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks are the only team in the NBA that is currently .500 overall. They have a record of 20-20 and are currently in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. They catch the Rockets at an opportune time, as Houston is playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Despite playing on the road, Milwaukee is only listed as a 7-point underdog. They have an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the sixth highest in the slate and 4.3 points above their season average.

Giannis Antetokounmpo was well on his way to a big game against the Sixers, before getting into foul trouble and playing very limited minutes in the second half. I expect a monster bounce-back game from him tonight against the Rockets. Not only is this a great matchup, but I always give Giannis a boost when he is playing in uptempo games. He is an elite play in all formats tonight and in case you missed it on Monday, he is now small forward-eligible on DraftKings. Malcolm Brogdon has played well as a starter, but his price has caught up to his recent level of production. Jabari Parker draws an exploitable matchup against a Rockets’ team that is ranked 29th against power forwards. I expect Parker to fly under the radar, making him a strong tournament play. Greg Monroe minutes have been all over the map recently, but we’ve seen his 50 fantasy point upside. He is also worth a look in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,600 $10,400 1.35 34.7 0.3 46.9 -1.4 30.0% 1.0% 21 1.85
Malcolm Brogdon $5,300 $5,600 0.78 24.5 3.5 19.1 5.0 20.3% -0.6% 25 -1.54
Tony Snell $3,500 $3,300 0.52 29.2 -2.5 15.3 -1.0 12.0% -2.8% 10 0.54
Jabari Parker $7,500 $7,100 0.96 34.1 0.0 32.9 0.1 25.4% -0.9% 29 1.16
John Henson $3,600 $3,200 0.87 20.2 1.8 17.6 0.6 15.8% -2.8% 13 0.87
Greg Monroe $5,900 $5,700 1.15 21.3 1.0 24.4 -2.8 23.9% 8.2% 13 N/A

Elite Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo

Secondary Plays – Jabari Parker, Greg Monroe

Houston Rockets

The Rockets fell short against the Heat last night, but still own a 32-12 record overall. They will look to get back to their winning ways tonight against the Bucks, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Rockets have an implied total of 116.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate. If this game stays close, it should be one of the best ones to stack, both in a cash game and a tournament setting. James Harden had a triple-double with 40 actual points last night. It was the first time any player had ever accomplished that feat against the Heat. For whatever reason, he is still priced below $12,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He remains an elite play in all formats. Ryan Anderson missed last night’s game with an illness and is currently listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, Trevor Ariza would play upwards of 40 minutes in a favorable matchup against Milwaukee. Eric Gordon and Sam Dekker would also see small boosts off the bench if Anderson is out. I will continue to avoid the Rockets’ frontcourt until we see how their rotation shakes out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,300 $5,400 0.83 31.0 0.1 25.7 2.8 15.8% -0.1% 4 2.61
James Harden $11,800 $11,700 1.48 36.6 -0.7 54.0 -2.4 39.0% 2.6% 16 -0.25
Corey Brewer $3,500 $3,000 0.59 15.5 4.8 9.1 0.1 13.9% 0.6% 29 -0.68
Trevor Ariza $5,800 $5,500 0.76 34.3 2.0 26.1 2.0 15.0% 1.1% 13 -1.54
Clint Capela $5,200 $4,600 1.04 24.0 -15.3 24.9 -15.4 18.0% -1.8% 9 1.50
Eric Gordon $5,800 $5,700 0.83 30.5 -0.9 25.4 -7.6 23.7% 0.6% 16 N/A
Sam Dekker $3,500 $3,200 0.77 18.8 0.1 14.5 2.2 15.1% 1.9% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Trevor Ariza (if Anderson is out)

Secondary Plays – Patrick Beverley, Trevor Ariza (if Anderson is active), Sam Dekker and Eric Gordon (if Anderson is out)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious