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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-23 02:33:06

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Charlotte Hornets at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Orlando Magic
Article Image Vegas Total 208.0 Article Image Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 101.5
Pace +/- -0.2 Pace +/- -0.5
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 23 20 20 25 22 Adj. DvP 15 21 13 21 11
DRPM -0.61 -0.76 -0.99 -0.84 2.09 DRPM -0.70 -0.36 2.22 0.44 2.89

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are three games out of the eight seed in the East with only 12 to play. To have a realistic chance at making the postseason, they will need to go 10-2 at a minimum. They have a winnable game tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. The Hornets are listed as 5-point favorites with an implied total of 106.5 points. We generally like to target the Hornets at home, but we can make an exception tonight in Orlando.

After scoring at least 38 fantasy points in five straight games, Kemba Walker has let us down in three straight outings. It’s strange to see such inconsistency from a point guard, but I love that his price is down to $7,700 on FanDuel. Elfrid Payton is not a good defender and the Magic as a whole are ranked 23rd against point guards. There is a lot of talk about Walker’s home/road splits, but they are actually negligible at this point (less than one fantasy point per game difference). Nicolas Batum has played 27 and 31 minutes in his first two games back from injury. I expect that to increase to 33-34 tonight in an exploitable matchup against Orlando. Marvin Williams has scored at least 34 fantasy points in five of his last seven games, but most of those were without Frank Kaminsky. I have a hard time paying a premium for Williams, even though the matchup looks great on paper. Kaminsky is an intriguing tournament play, as he has taken over the lion’s share of minutes at center in the last three games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,700 $8,000 1.05 34.5 -0.4 36.4 -5.4 30.2% -1.3% 23 -0.61
Nicolas Batum $7,000 $6,900 0.94 34.6 -1.7 32.4 -1.8 24.0% 0.6% 20 -0.76
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,100 $5,000 0.79 29.3 -0.3 23.2 -0.1 14.2% -0.4% 20 -0.99
Marvin Williams $6,700 $6,400 0.78 30.1 6.1 23.4 10.7 16.4% -1.4% 25 -0.84
Cody Zeller $5,000 $4,800 0.85 27.5 3.6 23.3 1.1 16.0% -1.7% 22 2.09
Frank Kaminsky $5,700 $5,600 0.84 26.1 4.1 21.9 -0.5 21.4% 0.1% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (DK), Nicolas Batum, Frank Kaminsky (GPP)

Orlando Magic

The Magic are busy making plans for the offseason, but they will take time out of their busy day to attend tonight’s game against the Hornets. This isn’t a great matchup on paper, but the Hornets are much better defensively at home than they are on the road. Orlando has an implied total of 101.5 points, which is a point and a half above their season average. This isn’t my favorite game to target in the slate, but there are a few that lack fantasy appeal as a whole.

Elfrid Payton is averaging over 35 fantasy points in his last five games, but he averages under 30 minutes per game and his price is close to his season high. I’d be more interested if Payton was priced in the mid-$6,000 range. Evan Fournier has cooled off a bit recently, but the Hornets are ranked 21st against shooting guards this season. There are a lot of viable shooting guards in the $5,500-$6,500 range tonight, so Fournier should have a fairly low ownership. Terrence Ross loves to let the DFS community down, but he’s only $3,900 on FanDuel and the Magic will be without Jeff Green. Aaron Gordon should be playing 35 minutes a night, but the Magic refuse to do it. With Green out tonight, Gordon could end up playing minutes in the low 30s if you want to look his way in tournaments. Nikola Vucevic is coming off of another big outing against the Sixers (as predicted in the Grind Down), but he is priced at a premium and Cody Zeller is surprisingly a very good defender (DRPM of 2.89).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $7,100 $7,500 0.96 29.1 1.2 28.0 7.2 25.3% -1.3% 15 -0.70
Evan Fournier $5,500 $5,800 0.77 33.0 -1.3 25.5 -1.0 24.0% 1.2% 21 -0.36
Terrence Ross $3,900 $4,600 0.71 24.3 6.0 17.3 -0.5 18.4% -1.0% 13 2.22
Aaron Gordon $5,400 $5,600 0.78 27.9 1.5 21.7 2.2 19.9% 0.8% 21 0.44
Nikola Vucevic $8,000 $7,900 1.16 28.8 1.9 33.5 7.2 25.6% 4.0% 11 2.89

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier (GPP), Terrence Ross (FD), Aaron Gordon

Indiana Pacers at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Boston Celtics
Article Image Vegas Total 207.0 Article Image Vegas Total 207.0
Vegas Spread 7.5 Vegas Spread -7.5
Team Total 99.8 Team Total 107.3
Pace +/- 0.1 Pace +/- -0.3
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague C.J. Miles Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 20 7 24 20 18 Adj. DvP 8 13 18 7 21
DRPM -4.31 -0.89 0.96 3.64 1.30 DRPM 0.00 -0.30 0.00 2.25 2.14

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers have lost five of their last ten games, but are still a good bet to make the playoffs. They are currently in sixth place in the Eastern Conference and would have to really fall apart to get passed by three teams here in the last few weeks of the season. They draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Celtics, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Pacers have an implied total of 99.8 points, which is 4.3 points below their season average.

The Pacers have a mediocre matchup on paper, they have a low team total, and they are playing on the road. This isn’t exactly the ideal spot for fantasy production. Jeff Teague will likely draw the defense of Isaiah Thomas, which is certainly a big boost in his favor. Thomas has the worst DRPM of any player in the NBA and Teague is coming off of a strong outing against the Jazz. Teague will get overlooked, but I plan to have a few shares of him in tournaments. Paul George is averaging 38 fantasy points in his last five games, but $8,300 is a steep price to pay. He’s going to see the defense of Jae Crowder and potentially Avery Bradley. I would much rather spend a bit more and go up to Jimmy Butler at small forward. Thaddeus Young is potentially playing through an injury. Despite averaging 34 minutes in his last five games, he is only averaging 19 fantasy points. Myles Turner is on my radar on DraftKings tonight at $5,700. The Celtics do not defend the paint well and are ranked 27th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $6,700 $6,500 1.01 32.3 -0.9 32.7 -3.9 26.3% 1.1% 20 -4.31
C.J. Miles $3,700 $3,800 0.71 23.5 0.5 16.8 -2.6 17.1% -2.5% 7 -0.89
Paul George $8,300 $8,300 1.01 35.3 0.0 35.5 3.1 28.0% 2.5% 24 0.96
Thaddeus Young $4,600 $4,600 0.75 30.3 3.8 22.8 -3.7 15.9% -4.3% 20 3.64
Myles Turner $6,200 $5,700 0.96 31.0 1.3 29.9 -1.8 19.0% -1.8% 18 1.30
Monta Ellis $4,400 $3,700 0.65 26.7 -2.5 17.4 2.4 18.7% 4.0% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Jeff Teague (GPP), Paul George (GPP), Myles Turner (DK)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics picked up a huge win against the Wizards the other night and now hold a two and a half game lead over Washington for the two seed in the East. They should be able to take care of business tonight at home against the Pacers, who are ranked at or below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Celtics have an implied total of 107.3 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate.

Isaiah Thomas is averaging 40.7 fantasy points per game this season, but his production and usage rate are both down since Avery Bradley returned to the lineup. Thomas is cheap on DraftKings at a price of $8,100, but I still have a hard time clicking his name. The decreased usage is a big issue and the Pacers are ranked eighth against point guards this season. Bradley is back to playing a full complement of minutes and we were just waiting for him to have a good game from the floor. That came the other night against the Wizards, as he put up 38 fantasy points. With Wilson Chandler back for Denver, I actually prefer Bradley over the likes of Gary Harris and Will Barton. Al Horford is averaging 41 fantasy points over his last five games, but it’s worth pointing out that Thomas missed two of those contests. Even if we pencil Horford in for his season averages of 32.7 minutes and 1.00 FP/min, his baseline projection doesn’t look bad at his current price point. I don’t mind riding the hot hand of Horford.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,600 $8,100 1.19 34.1 -3.8 40.7 -6.1 35.0% -2.4% 8 0.00
Avery Bradley $6,500 $6,100 0.88 33.2 -1.2 29.1 -1.1 22.2% 0.4% 13 -0.30
Jae Crowder $6,000 $6,000 0.79 32.4 0.1 25.5 2.5 16.6% 2.2% 18 0.00
Amir Johnson $3,700 $3,900 0.81 20.0 4.0 16.3 -2.3 14.2% -2.7% 7 2.25
Al Horford $6,700 $6,600 1.00 32.7 -0.8 32.7 8.1 21.8% 1.4% 21 2.14
Marcus Smart $6,100 $5,400 0.79 30.5 -2.9 24.0 -0.8 20.8% 4.4% 13 N/A
Kelly Olynyk $4,000 $4,000 0.89 20.7 -2.2 18.4 1.5 19.4% 3.4% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – Avery Bradley

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas (DK), Al Horford

Philadelphia 76ers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Philadelphia 76ers Oklahoma City Thunder
Article Image Vegas Total 218.0 Article Image Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread 11.0 Vegas Spread -11.0
Team Total 103.5 Team Total 114.5
Pace +/- 1.8 Pace +/- 2.2
Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot Robert Covington Dario Saric Richaun Holmes Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 14 12 9 8 16 Adj. DvP 17 24 21 19 30
DRPM -0.15 0.74 2.17 1.51 1.50 DRPM 0.12 -0.14 3.66 -1.16 -0.32

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers have lost six of their last ten games and come into tonight as 11-point underdogs against the Thunder. This is not a great matchup overall, even though Oklahoma City is one of the fastest-paced teams in the NBA. Philadelphia has an implied total of 103.5 points, but I’m always a little concerned about huge road underdogs. Gerald Henderson is expected to play tonight, after being rested on Monday. He will likely cut into the minutes of Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot and Nik Stauskas.

Robert Covington had a big game against the Magic, but this matchup is a different animal. He will likely draw the defense of Andre Roberson, who has a DRPM of 2.17. Dario Saric is my favorite target from the Sixers tonight. He got into foul trouble against the Magic and only played 26 minutes. Even with that bad outing, Saric is averaging 38 fantasy points in his last five games. We need to keep an eye on the availability of Jahlil Okafor. Richaun Holmes has scored 36 and 50 fantasy points in his last two starts. Granted, he had favorable matchups in both of those games, but he could see 30+ minutes tonight of Okafor is ruled out again.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,600 $5,400 0.84 25.6 3.3 21.5 5.6 19.4% -0.1% 14 -0.15
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $3,600 $4,100 0.57 14.2 12.3 8.2 9.0 16.6% -0.4% 12 0.74
Robert Covington $7,400 $7,300 0.85 31.7 3.1 26.8 8.5 18.5% 1.7% 9 2.17
Dario Saric $7,600 $7,600 0.90 26.1 5.2 23.4 14.4 23.7% 4.3% 8 1.51
Richaun Holmes $6,100 $6,200 0.99 18.7 8.1 18.6 15.0 17.9% 0.8% 16 1.50
Nik Stauskas $3,800 $4,100 0.60 27.2 1.5 16.4 3.0 16.6% 2.4% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Dario Saric (GPP), Richaun Holmes (if Okafor is out)

Secondary Plays – Dario Saric (Cash), Robert Covington

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are coming off of another blowout loss to the Warriors. That game was extremely frustrating, as the spread was set at a single point and everything pointed to a shootout between two very good offenses. In the end, Golden State had their number once again. The Thunder will look to take their anger out on the Sixers. They are double-digit favorites tonight in an exploitable matchup against a defense that is ranked 23rd in points allowed per game and 22nd in defensive efficiency.

If this game stays close, Russell Westbrook will post his 35th triple-double of the season. Even if the game doesn’t stay close, I like his chances to pick up his 35th triple-double of the season. The Sixers are turnover-prone, they don’t rebound well, and they struggle to defend the paint. The points, rebounds, and assists should all be there for Westbrook and we haven’t even touched on his steal and block upside. He is my favorite overall play in the slate. It’s a lot easier to fit Westbrook on FanDuel, but it can be done on DraftKings if you take a flier on a couple value plays. Victor Oladipo is averaging 28 fantasy points in his last five games and appears to be in a good spot against the Sixers, who are ranked 24th against shooting guards. I would love to target one of the Thunder bigs against the Sixers, but they have been wildly inconsistent recently. I slightly prefer Enes Kanter over Steven Adams, but it’s hard to pay $5,000+ for a player that isn’t guaranteed more than 20 minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $13,000 $13,100 1.68 34.7 -2.3 58.3 -0.9 46.0% -4.2% 17 0.12
Victor Oladipo $6,100 $6,400 0.80 33.3 -0.9 26.7 1.7 21.4% 1.8% 24 -0.14
Andre Roberson $3,800 $4,000 0.59 30.3 -2.1 17.9 -0.6 10.2% -1.0% 21 3.66
Taj Gibson $4,200 $4,400 0.83 26.4 -4.8 21.8 -2.9 18.4% 3.2% 19 -1.16
Steven Adams $4,900 $5,000 0.82 30.3 -1.8 25.0 -1.0 16.4% -1.9% 30 -0.32
Enes Kanter $5,500 $5,100 1.13 21.6 -1.8 24.4 -0.1 26.2% 5.1% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter (GPP), Steven Adams (GPP)

Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET

Detroit Pistons Chicago Bulls
Article Image Vegas Total 199.0 Article Image Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 99.0
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Tobias Harris Andre Drummond Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Jimmy Butler Paul Zipser Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 29 14 15 17 5 Adj. DvP 22 3 19 12 4
DRPM -0.19 2.15 -0.26 1.18 0.23 DRPM -2.73 -0.33 0.75 -0.65 1.42

Detroit Pistons

This game will basically serve as an elimination game in the Eastern Conference playoff picture. The Pistons and Bulls are currently on the outside looking in and the loser of this game will have a hard time making up that much ground with only a few weeks left in the season. Both of these teams are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, so they may not be as effective as they usually are on the defensive end of the floor. The Pistons have an implied total of 100 points, which is the fifth lowest in the slate and 1.7 points below their season average.

Reggie Jackson has a dream matchup against Rajon Rondo, but he had a similar matchup against the Nets last night and put up an uninspiring stat line of seven points, two rebounds, and two assists. I can’t take the Reggie punishment any longer, but I could see the appeal in large tournaments on FanDuel. I’d rather target Ish Smith, who is averaging 22 fantasy points over his last five games. Smith is only $4,200 on DraftKings and may be one of the keys to unlocking Russell Westbrook. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is too expensive on DraftKings, but firmly in play on FanDuel at $4,700. Marcus Morris has struggled since Tobias Harris entered the starting lineup. Add in a matchup against Jimmy Butler and he becomes an easy fade. Harris, on the other hand, is a tremendous play. He will likely end up being the chalk on FanDuel at a price of only $5,400. We need to keep an eye on the Robin Lopez situation. If he ends up getting suspended, Andre Drummond could have a monster game. Even at his elevated price point, Drummond would be an elite play if Lopez is suspended.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $5,000 $5,700 0.89 27.7 -5.0 24.7 -6.9 29.7% 3.6% 29 -0.19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $4,700 $5,600 0.71 33.9 -1.8 23.9 -1.6 19.5% 1.4% 14 2.15
Marcus Morris $5,300 $5,400 0.72 33.1 0.2 23.9 -5.9 20.1% -1.7% 15 -0.26
Tobias Harris $5,400 $6,000 0.83 31.6 0.3 26.3 -1.7 21.5% -2.8% 17 1.18
Andre Drummond $7,800 $7,900 1.20 30.3 -2.0 36.3 -4.2 22.2% -2.5% 5 0.23
Ish Smith $4,300 $4,200 0.87 23.3 0.6 20.3 1.9 23.5% 4.1% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Tobias Harris, Andre Drummond (GPP – if Lopez is out)

Secondary Plays – Reggie Jackson (FD GPP), Ish Smith (DK), Andre Drummond (GPP – if Lopez is active)

Chicago Bulls

In case you missed the fight between Serge Ibaka and Robin Lopez, make sure to search for it. NBA players rarely throw punches these days and both players were inches away from landing some big shots. There is no doubt in my mind that they will both be suspended, the question is whether or not the league will decide in time for tonight’s game. I expect Lopez to be suspended for tonight’s game, but it is a waiting game at this point. The Bulls come into this game as 1-point underdogs with an implied total of only 99 points.

Rajon Rondo logged 40 minutes in last night’s overtime loss to the Raptors. After two subpar outings, he broke out with 46 fantasy points against Toronto. His price doesn’t reflect last night’s outing and he draws a matchup against the likes of Reggie Jackson and Ish Smith. Everyone is going to be on Rondo tonight, but he is a tough fade in this slate. We generally only like to fade the bad chalk and Rondo feels a lot more like good chalk. Butler played 44 minutes last night and with the Bulls in a must-win situation, I expect him to see 38-40 tonight. He is also an elite play, despite the fact that they are playing in a slow-paced game against the Pistons. Paul Zipser could play big minutes again, but I’m not particularly interested in a player that averages 0.54 fantasy points per minute. If Robin Lopez is suspended, Nikola Mirotic and Bobby Portis could both be looking at 30+ minutes of action.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $5,400 $5,700 0.90 26.4 6.6 23.7 7.4 22.6% 0.0% 22 -2.73
Jimmy Butler $8,900 $8,900 1.12 36.8 2.8 41.2 5.8 28.7% -1.9% 3 -0.33
Paul Zipser $3,500 $3,100 0.54 17.4 8.4 9.4 7.0 14.0% -0.9% 19 0.75
Nikola Mirotic $4,400 $4,600 0.83 23.0 3.3 19.0 4.4 19.2% 3.1% 12 -0.65
Robin Lopez $5,000 $4,100 0.78 27.9 0.4 21.9 1.9 17.2% 0.2% 4 1.42
Bobby Portis $4,000 $3,900 0.82 14.7 6.9 12.1 5.6 18.7% -0.1% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Rajon Rondo, Jimmy Butler, Nikola Mirotic (GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Mirotic (GPP), Bobby Portis (GPP), Paul Zipser (DK)

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards – 8:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards
Article Image Vegas Total 214.5 Article Image Vegas Total 214.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 110.8
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Thabo Sefolosha Ersan Ilyasova Dwight Howard Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 7 16 16 28 10 Adj. DvP 25 23 28 6 9
DRPM -0.50 -0.74 0.63 1.56 1.76 DRPM -2.75 -1.04 2.35 0.34 2.95

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks will be without two of their starters again tonight, as they take on the Wizards in Washington. The spread is set at seven points, which seems a bit low. However, the lower spread bodes well for the fantasy production of the starters on both sides. The matchup against the Wizards is a decent one, as they are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Despite missing two good scorers, the Hawks have an implied total of 103.8 points.

Dennis Schroder and Tim Hardaway didn’t pan out the other night against the Hornets, but the upside is there. With Paul Millsap and Kent Bazemore off the floor, Schroder has a 3.07% usage rate and Hardaway has a 26.8% usage rate. If the Hawks are going to keep tonight’s game close, it will likely be thanks to big games from Schroder and Hardaway. I see both as elite tournament plays. Thabo Sefolosha had a big game in Bazemore’s absence the other night. He and Taurean Prince should both play close to 30 minutes tonight. I prefer Sefolosha on DraftKings, but the two are comparable plays on FanDuel. I’m likely going to hit the lock button on Ersan Ilyasova tonight. The Wizards are ranked 29th against power forwards, he has played well with Millsap off the floor, and he has played well against Washington this season. Dwight Howard has played at least 31 minutes in three straight games. The Wizards are fairly tough on centers, but I love Howard’s upside in tournaments with Millsap out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,200 $7,100 0.96 31.0 -0.8 29.7 2.4 30.1% 2.0% 7 -0.50
Tim Hardaway $5,400 $5,900 0.80 26.0 2.5 20.7 2.3 22.8% -0.3% 16 -0.74
Thabo Sefolosha $3,800 $4,300 0.72 25.8 -3.7 18.6 -2.5 13.8% 0.8% 16 0.63
Ersan Ilyasova $4,500 $5,500 0.89 26.1 -4.1 23.3 -3.3 21.8% -1.0% 28 1.56
Dwight Howard $6,800 $7,000 1.10 29.7 2.4 32.8 -1.7 18.0% -2.3% 10 1.76
Taurean Prince $3,900 $5,000 0.71 13.3 12.9 9.4 11.8 17.0% 0.8% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Ersan Ilyasova, Dennis Schroder (GPP), Tim Hardaway (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (Cash), Tim Hardaway (Cash), Dwight Howard (Cash), Thabo Sefolosha, Taurean Prince (FD)

Washington Wizards

The Wizards are now two and a half games behind the Celtics for the two seed in the East. While they may not catch Boston, they need to keep winning, as they only hold a half game lead over the Raptors. On paper, the Hawks are a top ten defensive team, but that changes a bit with Paul Millsap out. The Wizards come into tonight’s game as 7-point favorites with an implied total of 110.8 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 1.8 points above their season average.

John Wall’s knee injury is a concern right now. It hasn’t impacted his playing time or his production, but there continue to be reports about him getting it worked on. He is an easy fade for me on FanDuel at a price of $10,000. The trickier decision is over on DraftKings. If we assume that he is 100% healthy, $9,300 in this matchup is a steal. I expect Wall to play tonight and may end up using him on DraftKings. The matchup against the Hawks is so tempting. Bradley Beal will likely see Thabo Sefolosha’s defense. If I’m targeting a wing player from Washington, I’d rather go with Otto Porter, who is considerably cheaper. Bojan Bogdanovic is an intriguing pivot off of the Hawks’ small forward targets. He is only $4,000 on FanDuel and will likely have a much lower ownership than Sefolosha and Prince. We can’t trust any of the Wizards’ bigs right now, as Markieff Morris and Marcin Gortat have been in terrible form over the last month of play.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,000 $9,300 1.23 36.7 -1.3 45.3 -5.5 34.6% -1.6% 25 -2.75
Bradley Beal $7,800 $7,200 0.94 34.8 -0.5 32.6 -4.0 26.4% 0.6% 23 -1.04
Otto Porter $6,000 $6,100 0.83 33.7 -1.4 27.9 -3.6 14.9% 0.4% 28 2.35
Markieff Morris $6,000 $5,900 0.84 31.9 0.0 26.7 -6.4 19.9% -4.2% 6 0.34
Marcin Gortat $5,100 $4,600 0.85 32.5 -10.8 27.7 -9.8 14.6% 2.7% 9 2.95
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $4,600 0.76 26.5 -1.4 20.1 -2.7 22.4% 2.3% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall (DK)

Secondary Plays – John Wall (FD), Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Bojan Bogdanovic (FD)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on Twitter – @RG_Notorious