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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 23rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-03-24 02:15:38

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards
atlantanba Vegas Total 209.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 105.0 Team Proj. 104.0
Team Pace 99.10 Team Pace 100.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 15 17 25 7 8 Opp. Season 5 20 13 14 23
Last 3 Weeks 15 5 8 7 8 Last 3 Weeks 5 19 5 10 13

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 41-30 — Road: 18-17 — Last 10: 8-2

The Hawks have won eight of their last ten games and are currently tied with the Hornets and Celtics for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. Tonight’s game against the Wizards is an important one for both teams and we should see a competitive game throughout. The Hawks are projected to score 105 points, which gives them the 12th highest team total and the 12th highest projected point differential.

The Wizards were a bottom ten defensive team for most of the season, but they have really picked up their play on that end of the floor. Over the last three weeks, they are ranked 15th or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Dennis Schroder is listed as questionable, after rolling his ankle the other night. If he is unable to suit up, that would solidify the minutes for Jeff Teague.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap
paul-millsap-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,600
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.20
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 32.2 -0.4 31.0 -1.6
FPPG (FD) 36.7 34.8 -1.9 34.8 -1.9
TO-Adj. Usage 19.9 18.1 -1.8 17.7 -2.2

In their meeting the other night, Millsap only managed to put up 17 fantasy points in 28 minutes. I expect a much better outing from Millsap tonight and given the fact that his ownership will be low, he makes an excellent tournament play at power forward. The Hawks have tightened their rotation with their playoff seeding on the line and Millsap could end up playing close to 35 minutes tonight.

Washington Wizards

Record: 35-35 — Home: 19-17 — Last 10: 5-5

The Wizards are making a playoff push in the Eastern Conference. They have won five games in a row and are currently only a game and a half behind the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot. They are going to treat every game from here on out as a must win. The Wizards are listed as 1-point underdogs tonight with an implied team total of 104 points.

The Hawks have been excellent defensively this season, ranking sixth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. While this doesn’t appear to be a great matchup on paper, the Wizards are projected to score slightly more than their season average. Alan Anderson is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he is unable to suit up, it would solidify the minutes for Bradley Beal and Otto Porter. John Wall makes an intriguing tournament play here, but there are better point guard options for cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Brad Beal
bradley-beal-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,500 Salary:$5,400
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.86 FP/Min:0.93
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 29.0 -1.7 30.5 -0.2
FPPG (FD) 26.5 24.4 -2.1 29.5 3.0
TO-Adj. Usage 21.7 20.1 -1.6 19.9 -1.8

The Wizards didn’t play last night and they don’t play again until Friday, so we don’t have to worry about them limiting Beal’s minutes in a back-to-back. This may be the last night to target Beal at this price point. Over his last three games, he is averaging 32 minutes and 30 fantasy points per contest. There are still safer plays at shooting guard tonight, but he offers good upside at his discounted price.

Otto Porter
otto-porter-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,100 Salary:$5,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.76 FP/Min:0.81
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.4 30.8 0.4 33.6 3.2
FPPG (FD) 23.1 22.2 -0.8 28.7 5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 14.3 13.8 -0.5 14.2 -0.1

Porter was in a slump there for close to a month, but he finally appears to be over it. In his last five games, he is averaging 33.6 minutes and 28.7 fantasy points per contest. His price has come up a bit across the industry, but he should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight in a must-win game against the Hawks. With small forward being such a thin position, Porter is a decent target in all league formats.

Toronto Raptors at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM

Toronto Raptors Boston Celtics
torontonba Vegas Total 210.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 106.3
Team Pace 95.40 Team Pace 101.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan Norman Powell Luis Scola Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Evan Turner Amir Johnson Jared Sullinger
Opp. Season 1 10 22 26 27 Opp. Season 3 12 6 5 10
Last 3 Weeks 6 14 28 13 19 Last 3 Weeks 2 9 19 4 2

Toronto Raptors

Record: 48-21 — Road: 20-13 — Last 10: 8-2

The Raptors have won eight of their last ten games and are now only a game and a half behind the Cavaliers for the top seed in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics in a battle between two stout defensive teams. The Raptors are only projected to score 103.8 points, which is the tenth lowest team total of the 24 teams in action tonight.

The Celtics have been a slightly below-average matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 13th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The way to target Boston for DFS purposes is to target their frontcourt. They are very tough on guards, but are ranked 26th against power forwards and 27th against centers. Jonas Valanciunas and Patrick Patterson are both expected to play tonight. This could end the run for Bismack Biyombo as a viable punt play.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan
demar-derozan-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,300 Salary:$7,600
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.98 FP/Min:1.03
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 36.3 37.6 1.3 38.1 1.8
FPPG (FD) 35.5 38.9 3.4 36.5 1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 26.1 28.0 1.9 26.9 0.8

Even though the Celtics have been tough on opposing backcourts, DeRozan has had success in this matchup this season. In their three meetings, he has scored 41, 45, and 31 fantasy points. One of the reasons why he has excelled in this matchup is his ability to get to the free throw line. The Celtics are near the top of the league in fouls per game and DeRozan draws the third most fouls of any player in the NBA.

Boston Celtics

Record: 41-30 — Home: 24-12 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have lost five of their last ten games and are now tied with the Hornets and Hawks for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference. They need a strong finish to the season if they want to host a first round playoff series. The Celtics are 2.5-point favorites tonight against the Raptors at home. Boston is projected to score 106.3 points, which is right around the average of the 24 teams in action.

The Raptors have been excellent defensively this season, ranking 11th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We generally try to avoid targeting players against the Raptors whenever possible, but the Celtics are in a decent spot playing at home. Jae Crowder is not expected to play tonight, which should result in another start for Evan Turner.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas
isaiah-thomas-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,000 Salary:$7,600
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:1.08 FP/Min:1.17
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.5 33.1 0.6 32.8 0.3
FPPG (FD) 35.3 38.2 3.0 37.8 2.5
TO-Adj. Usage 26.0 26.8 0.8 27.2 1.2

Thomas has been very consistent over his last ten games, averaging 38.2 fantasy points per contest. He is actually one of the biggest beneficiaries with Jae Crowder out, as his usage spikes to 31 with Crowder off the floor. His matchup against Kyle Lowry is less than appealing, but Thomas has averaged 34.5 fantasy points in their three previous meetings this season.

Evan Turner
evan-turner-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,900 Salary:$5,600
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.85 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.5 29.0 1.5 29.1 1.6
FPPG (FD) 23.4 25.0 1.6 22.4 -1.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.1 16.5 0.4 15.1 -1.0

As long as he draws another start, Turner is worth a look in all league formats. In seven starts this season, he is averaging 34 minutes, 14.9 points, 6.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 1.6 blocks/steals per game. His price is still reasonable across the industry, but the matchup holds him back from being an elite play. I slightly prefer to use him on FanDuel, as he is listed as a small forward. There are a lot of strong shooting guard plays tonight.

Orlando Magic at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM

Orlando Magic Detroit Pistons
orlandonba Vegas Total 208.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 107.8
Team Pace 98.00 Team Pace 97.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Brandon Jennings Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Dewayne Dedmon Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Stanley Johnson Tobias Harris Marcus Morris Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 11 7 5 13 9 Opp. Season 19 4 17 23 15
Last 3 Weeks 9 4 23 22 23 Last 3 Weeks 20 7 9 20 28

Orlando Magic

Record: 29-41 — Road: 11-24 — Last 10: 2-8

The Magic have lost eight of their last ten games and are one of the many teams that seems to be counting down the days until the end of the regular season. Tonight they travel to Detroit to take on a Pistons’ team that is in the midst of a playoff race. The Magic are listed as 7-point underdogs with a low implied team total of 100.8 points.

The Pistons have been a difficult matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked 14th or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Nikola Vucevic has missed the last nine games with a groin injury. He has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, which means Dewayne Dedmon will draw another start at center.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Victor Oladipo
victor-oladipo-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,500 Salary:$7,700
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.92 FP/Min:0.98
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.8 37.6 4.8 40.3 7.5
FPPG (FD) 30.0 40.4 10.4 44.9 14.9
TO-Adj. Usage 19.8 21.4 1.6 21.4 1.6

It’s hard to ignore the run that Oladipo has been on since Nikola Vucevic went down with his injury. Over his last ten games, Oladipo is averaging 40.4 fantasy points in close to 38 minutes per contest. He is a borderline elite play tonight, but we have to pay a premium for him and his matchup against the Pistons is less than ideal. On the season, Detroit is ranked seventh against shooting guards.

Detroit Pistons

Record: 37-34 — Home: 22-12 — Last 10: 6-4

The Pistons have won six of their last ten games and are now one game behind the Bulls in the loss column. They have a good shot at making the playoffs, but will need a strong finish to the regular season. Detroit is listed as a 7-point favorite tonight against the Magic at home. The Pistons are projected to score 107.8 points, which gives them the eighth highest team total and the fifth highest projected point differential.

The Magic have been a slightly above-average matchup for fantasy production this season. They are ranked below the league average in all four of the defensive categories listed above. With the Pistons in must-win mode the rest of the season, we can expect their starters to log heavy minutes, especially in games that are expected to remain close. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has been ruled out of tonight’s game. Stanley Johnson will start in his place, while Tobias Harris and Marcus Morris should both see a small boost as well.

Elite Plays

Stanley Johnson
stanley-johnson-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$3,900 Salary:$3,800
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.71 FP/Min:0.76
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 23.4 19.7 -3.7 23.0 -0.4
FPPG (FD) 16.6 13.6 -2.9 17.4 0.8
TO-Adj. Usage 16.5 13.4 -3.0 15.1 -1.4

With KCP out tonight, Johnson will likely draw the start at shooting guard. The Pistons have tightened their rotation recently and with very few wings to bring off the bench, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Johnson play 35 minutes in this one. Given the price point and his matchup against the Magic, he is one of the top value plays on the board – assuming he starts of course.

Secondary Plays

Andre Drummond
andre-drummond-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,700 Salary:$7,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.19 FP/Min:1.28
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 33.1 30.6 -2.5 30.3 -2.8
FPPG (FD) 39.4 34.3 -5.1 32.1 -7.2
TO-Adj. Usage 20.4 19.7 -0.7 19.3 -1.0

Drummond’s production is down across the board over his last ten games. While he has mixed in some decent outings during that stretch, he has had a very low floor. His inconsistent play makes him more of a GPP play tonight against the Magic. He does provide nice upside though, as the Magic have allowed the third most fantasy points to centers over the last three weeks of play.

Tobias Harris
tobias-harris-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,000 Salary:$6,200
Position:PF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.9 33.4 0.5 30.5 -2.4
FPPG (FD) 27.0 27.8 0.7 25.0 -2.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.7 17.9 1.2 19.4 2.8

REVENGE GAME!

This will be the first time that Harris gets to face his former team since being traded to the Pistons. Harris has excelled on his new team, averaging 27.8 fantasy points over his last ten games. He should see 35+ minutes tonight in a must win game for Detroit and he should have a little added motivation to play well. I still see him as more of a secondary play tonight, but he’s in a nice spot, especially on sites where he is listed as a small forward.

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Utah Jazz Houston Rockets
utahnba Vegas Total 200.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Sprd 3.5 Vegas Sprd -3.5
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 93.40 Team Pace 100.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Donatas Motiejunas Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 14 23 30 29 20 Opp. Season 8 2 2 2 2
Last 3 Weeks 18 26 20 14 26 Last 3 Weeks 10 2 1 12 4

Utah Jazz

Record: 34-36 — Road: 12-23 — Last 10: 6-4

The Jazz have won six of their last ten games and have their biggest game of the season tonight. They are currently a half game behind the Rockets for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. Tonight they can pass Houston in the standings with a win. The Jazz are listed as 3.5-point underdogs with an implied team total of 98.3 points.

The Rockets have been awful defensively this season, ranking 23rd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. While the matchup looks great on paper, the Jazz still have the eighth lowest projected point differential tonight. There are a couple of players that are worth a look in tournaments here, but I will likely be avoiding all of the Jazz for cash games.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Derrick Favors
derrick-favors-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,300 Salary:$7,200
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:1.01 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 32.6 32.2 -0.4 32.8 0.2
FPPG (FD) 33.1 33.4 0.4 34.8 1.7
TO-Adj. Usage 20.6 22.1 1.5 22.1 1.6

Favors seems a little expensive tonight, but his matchup against the Rockets more than makes up for a few hundred dollar premium. On the season, the Rockets are ranked 29th against power forwards. Favors is more of a tournament play for me, as we have seen him post some monster fantasy outings this season. For cash games, I’d rather target Dirk Nowitzki at a similar price point.

Shelvin Mack
shelvin-mack-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,300 Salary:$6,300
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.89 FP/Min:0.94
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 16.5 31.7 15.2 33.6 17.1
FPPG (FD) 14.7 30.0 15.3 34.6 19.9
TO-Adj. Usage 21.3 20.0 -1.3 19.7 -1.6

Given the fact that Mack is $6,300 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, I expect his ownership to be way down tonight. While I won’t have any exposure to him in cash games, he is an excellent tournament play. Mack has scored at least 31 fantasy points in each of his last six games and he has shouldered the load offensively with Gordon Hayward hobbled.

Houston Rockets

Record: 35-36 — Home: 19-15 — Last 10: 5-5

The Rockets have lost five of their last ten games and are in danger of falling out of the playoff picture. They are playing in the tail end of a back-to-back tonight, after narrowly losing to the Thunder in Oklahoma City last night. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Jazz and are only projected to score 101.8 points. The Rockets have the second lowest projected point differential tonight at -4.5.

The Jazz are one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. On the season, they are ranked second in points allowed per game, sixth in rebounding differential, and second in fantasy points allowed per game. Utah is also ranked eighth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. For cash game purposes, we can avoid the Rockets altogether tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

James Harden
james-harden-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$10,400 Salary:$10,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:1.25 FP/Min:1.36
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 37.7 37.9 0.2 37.0 -0.7
FPPG (FD) 47.2 48.1 0.9 48.6 1.4
TO-Adj. Usage 27.5 27.8 0.4 25.2 -2.3

There are very few times during the season when we can project Harden to have an ownership less than 15-20%. He is one of my favorite tournament plays on the board. Even though the Jazz boast one of the best defenses in the NBA, Harden has scored 49 and 51 fantasy points in their last two meetings. He should also log around 40 minutes in a must-win game for the Rockets.

Sacramento Kings at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM

Sacramento Kings Minnesota Timberwolves
sacramentonba Vegas Total 223.5 minnesotanba Vegas Total 223.5
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 110.5 Team Proj. 113.0
Team Pace 102.20 Team Pace 97.50
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo James Anderson Rudy Gay Quincy Acy Willie Cauley-Stein Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns
Opp. Season 21 21 19 11 7 Opp. Season 23 29 23 30 19
Last 3 Weeks 17 20 25 29 14 Last 3 Weeks 14 16 12 30 7

Sacramento Kings

Record: 27-43 — Road: 13-23 — Last 10: 2-8

The Kings have lost eight of their last ten games and are currently one of the most dysfunctional organizations in the NBA. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on the Wolves in what should be a great game for fantasy production. The Kings are projected to score 110.5 points, which gives them the fifth highest team total and the ninth highest projected point differential.

The Wolves have been an exploitable matchup all season. They play at a fairly quick pace and are ranked 24th in points allowed per game. DeMarcus Cousins has been ruled out of tonight’s game, which really opens the door for a number of fantasy options on the Kings. He is responsible for such a large portion of their production that their entire lineup should see a boost with him out. Rajon Rondo, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Kosta Koufos are not listed below. However, all three are viable plays tonight against the Wolves.

Elite Plays

Rudy Gay
rudy-gay-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,100
Position:SF Position:SF
FP/Min:0.88 FP/Min:0.92
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 34.0 35.0 1.0 34.7 0.7
FPPG (FD) 29.9 25.7 -4.2 27.1 -2.8
TO-Adj. Usage 18.5 15.4 -3.0 17.4 -1.1

The last time that Cousins was out, Gay had one of the most disappointing fantasy outings in recent memory. His production has been way down over the last month of play, but his expected usage increase more than makes up for the recent form. The Wolves do not defend small forwards well and he should be their go-to option offensively. He is a tough fade in cash games tonight.

Secondary Plays

Darren Collison
darren-collison-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$5,600 Salary:$5,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.77 FP/Min:0.82
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 29.7 34.9 5.2 34.5 4.8
FPPG (FD) 22.8 26.7 3.9 26.8 4.0
TO-Adj. Usage 16.8 15.8 -0.9 16.4 -0.4

With 12 games on the schedule, you don’t need to target a backup point guard tonight. However, Collison has been playing starter’s minutes recently and he comes into this game in great form. Over his last ten games, he is averaging 26.7 fantasy points in 35 minutes per contest. He may also see a small usage boost with DeMarcus Cousins out.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Record: 22-48 — Home: 11-23 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wolves have lost seven of their last ten games, but draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Kings at home. The Wolves are projected to score 113 points, which is the second highest team total on the board. Minnesota also have the highest projected point differential at +11.3.

The Kings are my favorite team to target players against. They play at the league’s fastest pace, they are generally competitive, and they have allowed more points per game than any other team in the NBA. We should give the Wolves’ offense a sizable boost as a whole. All five starters deserve fantasy consideration in this matchup.

Elite Plays

Andrew Wiggins
andrew-wiggins-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,900 Salary:$6,400
Position:SF Position:SG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.87
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 35.1 35.3 0.2 36.7 1.6
FPPG (FD) 28.8 30.3 1.4 32.6 3.7
TO-Adj. Usage 22.9 20.2 -2.7 20.7 -2.2

Wiggins has been in great form recently, averaging 32.6 fantasy point over his last five games. His usage rate has dipped a bit recently, but he is starting to rack up peripheral statistics, which has more than made up for it. He draws an elite matchup tonight against the Kings, who are ranked 29th against shooting guards and 23rd against small forwards.

Zach LaVine
zach-lavine-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,100 Salary:$6,000
Position:SG Position:SG
FP/Min:0.82 FP/Min:0.89
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.0 37.7 10.7 36.5 9.5
FPPG (FD) 22.1 27.3 5.2 27.7 5.6
TO-Adj. Usage 20.6 17.7 -2.8 17.4 -3.2

If I had to decide between the two, I’d give a small edge to Andrew Wiggins over LaVine. The two are very close in price and Wiggins has had slightly better production recently. You can certainly get away with playing both though, as LaVine is averaging 37.7 minutes over his last ten games. If he plays 38 minutes tonight against the Kings, he should have another monster fantasy outing.

Secondary Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns
karl-anthony-towns-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$8,800 Salary:$8,600
Position:C Position:C
FP/Min:1.13 FP/Min:1.21
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 31.5 36.6 5.1 38.4 6.9
FPPG (FD) 35.6 40.2 4.6 39.5 3.9
TO-Adj. Usage 20.1 20.0 -0.1 19.3 -0.9

Towns has not had a great track record against the Kings this season, but this time around will be different. He does not have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins, who has already been ruled out. Towns should be able to dominate the paint against the likes of Willie Cauley-Stein and Kosta Koufos. He is a borderline elite play in all league formats.

Ricky Rubio
ricky-rubio-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$7,000 Salary:$7,100
Position:PG Position:PG
FP/Min:0.99 FP/Min:1.07
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 30.7 31.5 0.8 33.2 2.5
FPPG (FD) 30.5 33.3 2.8 39.5 9.1
TO-Adj. Usage 16.4 16.9 0.5 17.8 1.3

After Rubio dropped 20 points, 11 assists, and four steals against the Warriors, I expect his ownership to be inflated tonight. There are few better matchups to target than point guards against the Kings this season. I see Rubio as more of a GPP play tonight though. While I love the matchup, his price has come up across the industry. I prefer Andrew Wiggins and Zach LaVine dollar for dollar.

Gorgui Dieng
gorgui-dieng-300x200 FanDuel: DraftKings:
Salary:$6,400 Salary:$6,000
Position:PF Position:PF
FP/Min:0.90 FP/Min:0.95
Statistics Season Average Last 10 Games Last 10 +/- Last 5 Games Last 5 +/-
Minutes 27.0 30.3 3.3 31.8 4.8
FPPG (FD) 24.2 29.7 5.5 35.3 11.1
TO-Adj. Usage 13.2 14.0 0.8 16.7 3.5

Dieng hasn’t been playing in the 38-40 minute range that we saw earlier in the season, but he has still been in great form. Over the last five games, he is averaging 35.3 fantasy points in just under 32 points per game. He also draws an elite matchup against the Kings, who are ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed per game to power forwards this season.

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious