Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 29th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-30 02:41:56

Jump to Page 1 2

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Oklahoma City Thunder at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Orlando Magic
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 217.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread -6.0 Vegas Spread 6.0
Team Total 111.5 Team Total 105.5
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Nikola Vucevic
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 23 18 29 23 Adj. DvP 9 15 21 11 12
DRPM -0.49 -0.81 -1.30 -0.79 2.03 DRPM -0.19 0.93 2.16 1.56 1.34

Oklahoma City Thunder

We have a large ten game slate on tap tonight, so I will keep the team analysis to a minimum and try to focus on the picks. The Thunder are listed as 6-point favorites tonight against the Magic, who are always an exploitable matchup. On the season, Orlando is ranked below the league average in very defensive category listed above. The Thunder have an implied total of 111.5 points, which is the second highest of the 20 teams in action.

Russell Westbrook is the superstar to pay up for in this slate. With this being a large slate in March, there is not shortage of value. It’s easy to fit him in on FanDuel and you can make some quality lineups with him on DraftKings. When he breaks out for 70+ fantasy points (which he does all the time), you need Westbrook to cash. He should eat up a Magic team that struggles against point guards and doesn’t have an elite rim protector. Victor Oladipo has the revenge narrative in his corner, as he gets to face his former for the second time since the trade. Oladipo should see 32-34 minutes and he grades out as one of the top targets at shooting guard. Targeting bigs against the Magic has been profitable this season, but Steven Adams and Enes Kanter have both seen a dip in minutes and fantasy production in their last five games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $13,100 $13,200 1.68 34.7 -1.1 58.2 2.6 45.7% -2.4% 25 -0.49
Victor Oladipo $6,000 $6,000 0.81 33.3 -2.0 26.8 0.4 21.4% 1.6% 23 -0.81
Andre Roberson $4,000 $3,700 0.59 30.3 -0.8 18.0 0.7 10.4% 0.1% 18 -1.30
Taj Gibson $4,200 $4,100 0.82 26.1 -5.2 21.5 -4.4 18.4% 1.7% 29 -0.79
Steven Adams $4,800 $4,700 0.83 30.1 -2.2 24.9 -4.5 16.3% -2.3% 23 2.03
Enes Kanter $5,700 $5,100 1.14 21.5 -1.3 24.5 -0.4 26.2% 1.9% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter, Steven Adams, Andre Roberson (DK)

Orlando Magic

The Magic are one of the worst teams in the Eastern Conference and perhaps in the NBA altogether. While their matchup against the Thunder doesn’t look great on paper, they are only listed as 6-point underdogs in what should be a fast-paced game. Orlando has an implied total of 105.5 points, which is the seventh highest in the slate and 5.1 points above their season average. The Thunder used to be a team that we could attack with opposing point guards, but that has changed over the last two months. They are now ranked ninth in adjusted DvP against the position. Elfrid Payton still carries some GPP appeal, but I prefer Goran Dragic and Dennis Schroder at similar price points.

Evan Fournier has been quiet over the last couple of weeks. I recommend finding the extra cap space to move up to Victor Oladipo at shooting guard. Terrence Ross and Aaron Gordon are two of the most unpredictable players in all of DFS. They are both cheap on FanDuel, but deep tournament plays at best. The top target here is Nikola Vucevic, who is averaging 41 fantasy points over his last five games. Steven Adams is a good defender, but the Thunder as a whole are mediocre against centers (12th in adjusted DvP). A center with a true usage rate above 25% is always going to catch my eye, especially when I expect him to be low owned in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $7,200 $7,300 0.97 29.2 1.6 28.3 9.1 25.4% -1.1% 9 -0.19
Evan Fournier $5,400 $5,300 0.77 32.8 -2.7 25.1 -0.1 23.9% 0.9% 15 0.93
Terrence Ross $4,300 $5,000 0.73 24.4 4.7 17.8 0.9 18.7% -0.6% 21 2.16
Aaron Gordon $5,100 $5,200 0.77 28.1 1.8 21.7 0.5 19.7% 0.1% 11 1.56
Nikola Vucevic $8,100 $7,700 1.17 28.8 1.0 33.7 7.1 25.4% 2.0% 12 1.34

Elite Plays – Nikola Vucevic (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Nikola Vucevic (Cash), Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier

Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Philadelphia 76ers
atlantanba Vegas Total 208.5 philadelphianba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- 2.3 Pace +/- 1.0
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Kent Bazemore Ersan Ilyasova Dwight Howard Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot Robert Covington Dario Saric Richaun Holmes
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 16 16 16 19 30 Adj. DvP 26 27 30 6 5
DRPM 0.30 4.21 -0.80 0.47 DRPM -2.86 -1.05 -1.20 0.23 2.89

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks nearly lost to the short-handed Suns at home last night. If that would have happened, Atlanta could have basically kissed their season goodbye. While Paul Millsap and Thabo Sefolosha are still out, they are expecting to have Kent Bazemore back in the lineup. They need all the help they can get right now, as they have lost seven of their last ten games. The Hawks come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point favorites against the Sixers with an implied total of 105 points. This is arguably the best game to target in the entire slate.

Dennis Schroder has taken over offensively without Paul Millsap in the lineup. Over his last five games, he has seen a boost in minutes (+1.9), fantasy points per game (+4.6), and usage (4.3%). His price has come up across the industry, but I’ll gladly pay under $8,000 for a high usage point guard in a favorable matchup against the Sixers. Schroder is one of my favorite tournament plays in the slate and I am even considering him in cash games. With Thabo Sefolosha out, we can still look to Tim Hardaway and Taurean Prince on FanDuel. Even with Kent Bazemore back, Hardaway and Prince should both play 28-32 minutes. Ersan Ilyasova gets to face his former team tonight. He is coming off of his best game as a Hawk and he should continue to play minutes in the 30s with Millsap out. Dwight Howard is basically a plug-and-play when Millsap is out. His minutes, fantasy production, and usage all go up without Millsap in the lineup and the Sixers are ranked dead last against centers this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,200 $7,700 0.96 31.3 1.9 30.2 4.6 30.5% 4.3% 16
Tim Hardaway $5,900 $6,500 0.79 26.6 5.9 21.0 4.5 22.7% -0.9% 16 0.30
Kent Bazemore $4,300 $4,000 0.75 27.4 2.1 20.4 -1.3 20.5% -3.0% 16 4.21
Ersan Ilyasova $4,800 $6,000 0.90 26.3 -0.3 23.6 -0.7 21.7% -1.8% 19 -0.80
Dwight Howard $7,200 $7,600 1.10 29.9 2.8 33.0 0.6 18.2% 0.7% 30 0.47
Taurean Prince $3,800 $5,100 0.72 14.6 11.5 10.5 9.6 16.8% -0.2% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Ersan Ilyasova (FD), Dwight Howard

Secondary Plays – Ersan Ilyasova (DK), Tim Hardaway (FD), Taurean Prince (FD)

Philadelphia 76ers

Once we got news that Sergio Rodriguez, Jahlil Okafor, and Gerald Henderson were all going to sit last night against the Nets, it became pretty clear that a Sixers’ stack was in order. They were basically dressing nine players and Tiago Splitter wasn’t expected to take the course. If Okafor and Henderson are out again tonight, we could have a similar situation on our hands tonight. Philadelphia is playing at home against a struggling Hawks’ team in a game that features a spread of only 1.5 points. The Sixers have an implied total of 103.5 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

T.J. McConnell played 35 minutes and scored 30 fantasy points last night against Brooklyn. With Sergio Rodriguez out for the foreseeable future, McConnell should be locked into 35+ minutes a game moving forward. He is the best value play in the slate and should be targeted in all league formats. Nik Stauskas sees a nice bump as well, as he will play his usual minutes off the bench, but spend some of that time as the backup point guard. At $3,600 on FanDuel, he opens up a lot of options for the rest of your lineup. Robert Covington will be asked to play all of the minutes that he can handle, especially if Gerald Henderson is out again tonight. Covington has massive upside and is underpriced on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot. aka TLC, was not off chasing waterfalls last night. In fact, he was no scrub at all. He played 33 minutes and scored 33 fantasy points. If Henderson is out again, TLC becomes a viable punt on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Speaking of punts, Justin Anderson is also on my radar at only $3,100 on DraftKings. If you are looking for a way to fit Russell Westbrook into your lineup, Anderson and TLC may be the answer. Dario Saric has been quiet in his last few games, but draws a nice matchup against Ersan Ilyasova. Don’t sleep on Saric in tournaments tonight. Richaun Holmes picked up three quick fouls last night, but still finished with 21 fantasy points. While I love his per-minute production, I’m worried about foul trouble in a matchup against Dwight Howard.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $5,500 $5,500 0.83 25.7 2.5 21.4 5.0 19.3% -0.6% 26 -2.86
Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot $3,500 $3,400 0.57 15.0 11.6 8.5 8.4 16.6% -0.6% 27 -1.05
Robert Covington $6,700 $6,900 0.85 31.6 0.9 26.8 3.5 18.5% 0.7% 30 -1.20
Dario Saric $7,300 $7,600 0.90 26.4 5.2 23.9 9.1 23.9% 4.1% 6 0.23
Richaun Holmes $5,700 $6,300 0.98 19.3 6.9 19.0 9.3 17.7% 1.3% 5 2.89
Nik Stauskas $3,600 $4,100 0.59 27.2 1.3 16.0 1.7 16.6% 1.3% 27 N/A
Justin Anderson $3,500 $3,100 0.83 14.9 3.3 12.3 0.5 20.1% -3.9% 30 N/A
Shawn Long $4,000 $4,400 1.33 11.3 0.8 15.0 1.1 25.0% -1.0% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – T.J. McConnell, Nik Stauskas (FD), Robert Covington, Dario Saric (GPP), Justin Anderson (DK)

Secondary Plays – Nik Stauskas (DK), Dario Saric (Cash), Justin Anderson (FD), Timothe Luwawu-Cabarrot, Richaun Holmes

Charlotte Hornets at Toronto Raptors – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Toronto Raptors
charlottenba Vegas Total 203.5 torontonba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Spread 6.5 Vegas Spread -6.5
Team Total 98.5 Team Total 105.0
Pace +/- -1.6 Pace +/- -0.7
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Cory Joseph DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Serge Ibaka Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 13 3 4 10 10 Adj. DvP 15 20 17 20 15
DRPM -2.45 -2.04 1.09 0.62 0.16 DRPM -0.94 -0.37 2.21 0.28 3.08

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets are basically out of the playoff picture at this point. They are three games back and are in terrible form. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Raptors, who are ranked in the top ten in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Charlotte has an implied total of only 98.5 points. Not only is that the fourth lowest team total on the board, but it is also 6.6 points below their season average. There isn’t a single player that stands out as an elite play from the Hornets. Frank Kaminsky is really the only player that is even in the vicinity, as he should see around 30 minutes of action off the bench. This is one of those slates where we don’t need to take chances on players in poor matchups, so limit your exposure to the Hornets tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $7,800 $7,800 1.06 34.6 -0.9 36.6 -2.2 30.3% -0.7% 13 -2.45
Nicolas Batum $6,700 $6,900 0.94 34.4 -2.9 32.3 -3.7 24.2% 2.2% 3 -2.04
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $4,800 $4,800 0.80 29.1 -2.4 23.1 -2.3 14.2% -0.5% 4 1.28
Marvin Williams $6,500 $6,100 0.77 30.4 4.8 23.5 8.4 16.0% -2.4% 10 0.62
Cody Zeller $5,300 $5,400 0.84 27.8 3.2 23.5 2.3 15.9% -2.3% 10 0.16
Frank Kaminsky $5,400 $5,100 0.82 26.3 3.2 21.6 -0.4 21.4% -0.4% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Frank Kaminsky

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors come into tonight’s game as 6.5-point favorites against the Hornets. While Charlotte is ranked ninth in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency, they are a much different team on the road. They are only 12-24 away from home and their defensive numbers take a sizable hit on the road. The Raptors have an implied total of 105 points tonight, which is the eighth highest in the slate.

Cory Joseph is coming off of a tremendous game against the Magic, scoring 39 fantasy points in only 29 minutes of action. I’m not going to overreact after one solid game though, as he still only averages 0.73 fantasy points per minute on the season. Joseph is a viable play tonight, but I prefer T.J. McConnell at a similar price point. I also want to get as much exposure to Russell Westbrook, Goran Dragic, and Dennis Schroder as possible, so it’s hard to find room for Joseph. DeMar DeRozan is the top shooting guard in the slate. He has shown a low floor and a high ceiling recently, but $8,700 on DraftKings is more than reasonable. The Hornets may have some good wing defenders, but they are ranked 20th against shooting guards as a whole. DeMarre Carroll is expected to play tonight, which sends P.J. Tucker back to the bench. For now, both players can be avoided. I’m not particularly interested in Serge Ibaka and Jonas Valanciunas, as there are better options at each of their respective positions.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Cory Joseph $5,100 $5,000 0.73 24.9 6.7 18.1 5.2 20.3% -0.8% 15 -0.94
DeMar DeRozan $9,200 $8,700 1.11 35.4 -1.0 39.5 -0.8 34.1% 0.0% 20 -0.37
DeMarre Carroll $4,000 $3,700 0.67 26.7 -5.5 18.0 0.4 15.3% 1.5% 17 2.21
Serge Ibaka $5,700 $6,000 0.90 30.8 -1.4 27.8 -5.8 20.2% 0.0% 20 0.28
Jonas Valanciunas $5,200 $4,900 0.97 25.9 -2.6 25.2 -2.4 18.9% -1.1% 15 3.08
P.J. Tucker $4,300 $4,800 0.67 28.0 -2.3 18.6 -0.2 11.9% -0.1% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan (DK)

Secondary Plays – DeMar DeRozan (FD), Cory Joseph

Miami Heat at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Miami Heat New York Knicks
miaminba Vegas Total 209.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Spread -3.0 Vegas Spread 3.0
Team Total 106.0 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- 0.2 Pace +/- -1.2
Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Josh Richardson Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Willy Hernangomez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 10 26 24 15 28 Adj. DvP 3 1 8 5 6
DRPM -2.79 -1.02 -1.66 2.01 0.68 DRPM -1.50 -0.83 -0.21 1.66 2.35

Miami Heat

The Heat picked up a huge win last night against the Pistons, thanks to a last second tip-in by Hassan Whiteside. They are now a full game ahead of the Bulls for the eighth and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Even though this is the second half of a back-to-back, Miami has an exploitable matchup against the Knicks, who are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA. The Heat are listed as 3-point favorites with an implied total of 106 points, which is considerably higher than their season average.

With Dion Waiters out, Goran Dragic has seen a small boost in both usage (+1.7%) and fantasy points per game (+0.7) over his last five outings. The Heat are treating every game as a must win, so Dragic should see 33-35 minutes in a favorable matchup against Derrick Rose. There are a number of viable point guard targets in this slate, but Dragic make the short list. Josh Richardson is playing big minutes right now and is only $4,600 on FanDuel if you are looking for a cheap cash game target at shooting guard. Tyler Johnson has really cooled off recently, but his long lost brother, James Johnson, is worth a look. He is averaging 29 minutes and 28 fantasy points in his last five games. We always like targeting centers against the Knicks, but I see Hassan Whiteside strictly as a tournament play tonight, albeit an attractive one.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,500 $7,500 1.00 33.4 -1.9 33.5 0.7 29.3% 1.7% 10 -2.79
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,400 0.54 25.3 -2.1 13.6 0.1 12.5% 1.2% 26 -1.02
Josh Richardson $4,600 $5,300 0.66 29.3 1.2 19.3 -0.1 18.1% -2.4% 24 -1.66
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.55 15.7 0.8 8.6 0.1 12.9% -0.1% 15 2.01
Hassan Whiteside $8,800 $8,400 1.18 32.7 -0.4 38.7 2.3 21.1% -0.1% 28 0.68
Tyler Johnson $6,100 $5,900 0.86 29.9 -2.3 25.9 -4.5 22.2% 2.1% 10 N/A
James Johnson $6,200 $6,600 0.95 26.8 1.9 25.4 2.5 23.6% 2.1% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Hassan Whiteside (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside (Cash), Josh Richardson (FD), James Johnson

New York Knicks

The Knicks are not playing in the front or tail end of a back-to-back, but it sounds like they could rest Carmelo Anthony and/or Derrick Rose tonight. Trying to break down the viable fantasy options from their team is going to be difficult at this time, but we’ll take a shot at it anyway. The Knicks draw an awful matchup tonight against the Heat, who are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and sixth in defensive efficiency. The good news is that they are playing at home, so they should be able to keep the game within striking distance.

If Derrick Rose is active, he is an easy fade against a Heat team that is ranked third against point guards this season. If Rose is ruled out, Ron Baker would draw the start and both Justin Holiday and Courtney Lee would see a bump in playing time. Even if that’s the case, I’m not particularly interested in any of the Knicks’ guards tonight. After saying that they were going to limit Carmelo Anthony’s minutes down the stretch, he has played 36 and 35 minutes in his last two games. If Anthony is active, he is worth a look in tournaments at his discounted price point. If Anthony is ruled out, Mindaugas Kuzminskas would become an elite value play in all formats. Anthony’s absence would also give a hefty usage bump to Kristaps Porzingis, who has really taken over as the number one option in this offense. Porzingis is an elite tournament play tonight, even in a difficult matchup against the Heat. Willy Hernangomez averages 1.05 fantasy points per minute, which is more than both Anthony and Porzingis. He may be asked to play close to 30 minutes tonight against Hassan Whiteside, but he does run the risk of foul trouble.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,200 $6,100 0.89 32.5 0.5 28.9 0.1 27.6% -1.9% 3 -1.50
Courtney Lee $4,600 $4,600 0.61 32.2 2.3 19.7 1.6 14.6% 0.0% 1 -0.83
Carmelo Anthony $7,000 $6,700 1.01 34.5 1.3 34.8 -5.1 28.9% -5.3% 8 -0.21
Kristaps Porzingis $7,200 $7,600 1.00 32.8 0.0 32.7 2.6 23.7% 0.8% 5 1.66
Willy Hernangomez $5,100 $5,400 1.05 17.6 6.3 18.4 8.8 19.8% 3.3% 6 2.35

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (GPP), Mindaugas Kuzminskas (if Anthony is out)

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (Cash), Carmelo Anthony (GPP – if active), Willy Hernangomez (GPP)

Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Milwaukee Bucks Boston Celtics
milwaukeenba Vegas Total 209.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 8.0 Vegas Spread -8.0
Team Total 100.8 Team Total 108.8
Pace +/- 0.3 Pace +/- -1.8
Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 19 9 20 24 22 Adj. DvP 11 6 15 9 19
DRPM -4.25 -1.04 1.14 3.54 1.58 DRPM -0.80 -0.68 0.52 1.93 -0.46

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have won seven of their last ten games and are now tied with the Hawks for fifth place in the Eastern Conference. They are in a tough spot tonight though, as they are playing in the second half of back-to-back road games. Milwaukee is listed as an 8-point underdog tonight against the Celtics in a game that has the potential to turn into a blowout. The Bucks are only projected to score 100.8 points, which is the fifth lowest team total in the slate and 3.7 points below their season average.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of my favorite players to watch, but I refuse to roster him in cash games at this point of the season. He basically has a floor of 25 fantasy points and a ceiling of 70 fantasy points. The upside isn’t the problem, it’s the low floor. When he puts up those duds, he basically sinks your cash game lineup. For that reason, I will only have exposure to him in tournaments tonight against the Celtics. Malcolm Brogdon is the most appealing play here. He draws a matchup against Isaiah Thomas, who is the worst defender in the NBA. I love that Brogdon is shooting guard eligible on DraftKings. Khris Middleton is overpriced for his current level of production and can be avoided in all formats. Greg Monroe has played at least 25 minutes in three straight games and draws an exploitable matchup against a bad rebounding Celtics’ frontcourt. He is worth a look in tournaments on DraftKings at a price of $5,200.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,600 $5,100 0.78 26.5 4.6 20.8 4.7 20.2% -1.7% 19 -4.25
Tony Snell $3,800 $3,900 0.52 29.1 1.1 15.2 2.5 12.1% 1.6% 9 -1.04
Khris Middleton $6,300 $6,300 0.87 29.5 3.1 25.8 -0.1 23.8% -0.4% 20 1.14
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,300 $9,700 1.28 35.5 -0.6 45.5 -5.7 29.1% -0.6% 24 3.54
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,000 0.82 8.3 0.8 6.8 0.4 17.2% -4.4% 22 1.58
Greg Monroe $6,000 $5,200 1.11 22.6 1.5 25.1 -0.4 24.0% 0.8% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (GPP), Malcolm Brogdon (DK), Greg Monroe (DK)

Boston Celtics

The Celtics currently hold a half-game lead over the Cavaliers for first place in the Eastern Conference. We keep waiting for Cleveland to turn the switch, but they may find themselves as the two seed if they don’t do it soon. Boston would love to enter the playoffs with home-court advantage over Cleveland, so every game is important here on out. They come into tonight’s game with an implied total of 108.8 points, which is the third highest in the slate.

The Bucks have been tough on opposing point guards all season and we know that Isaiah Thomas has been more productive without Avery Bradley in the lineup. For those two reasons, he is an easy fade tonight in all formats. Bradley stands out as a great value play on DraftKings at $5,700. He should play 32-34 minutes and he quietly has a true usage rate of 21.9% on the season. The only other Celtics’ player on my radar here is Al Horford. He is averaging 36 fantasy points in his last five games and the Bucks have the ninth worst rebounding differential in the NBA this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,400 $8,000 1.18 34.1 -1.6 40.4 -6.4 34.9% -1.6% 11 -0.80
Avery Bradley $6,200 $5,700 0.86 33.3 -1.2 28.8 -3.5 21.9% 0.0% 6 -0.68
Jae Crowder $6,100 $6,200 0.79 32.4 0.0 25.6 1.8 16.8% 1.4% 15 0.52
Amir Johnson $4,100 $4,200 0.81 20.2 2.9 16.4 0.7 14.5% -1.2% 9 1.93
Al Horford $7,200 $6,900 1.01 32.6 -1.0 32.8 3.5 21.8% -0.3% 19 -0.46
Marcus Smart $5,800 $4,900 0.79 30.4 -3.2 23.9 -2.4 20.7% 3.7% 6 N/A

Elite Plays – Avery Bradley (DK)

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley (FD), Al Horford

Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious