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NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 8th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-09 03:20:51

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Chicago Bulls at Orlando Magic – 7:00 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Orlando Magic
chicagonba Vegas Total 203.0 orlandonba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread -1.0 Vegas Spread 1.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 101.0
Pace +/- -0.4 Pace +/- -1.4
Proj. Starter Jerian Grant Jimmy Butler Paul Zipser Bobby Portis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Evan Fournier Terrence Ross Aaron Gordon Bismack Biyombo
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 17 14 22 27 Adj. DvP 17 15 13 27 5
DRPM -0.82 -0.80 -0.79 -0.57 0.59 DRPM 0.24 1.57 -0.06 -0.72 0.18

Chicago Bulls

Per usual Wednesday tradition, we have a large slate on tap tonight in the association. We start with a game that features plenty of injury news, which is likely going to be a common theme in the last five weeks of the season. Dwyane Wade is going to warm up tonight, but is listed as doubtful, while Jimmy Butler and Rajon Rondo are both listed as game-time decisions. Obviously, the availability of these three players is going to change the slate drastically. Chicago draws a favorable matchup against the Magic, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential.

With Dwyane Wade listed as doubtful, let’s assume that he is going to miss tonight’s game. If Jimmy Butler is active and without any restrictions, he becomes an elite play in all formats. He sees a massive usage boost with Wade off the floor and averages 0.18 more fantasy points per minute. If Butler and Wade are both out, we can basically load up on the rest of the Bulls’ lineup. Jerian Grant, Cameron Payne, Paul Zipser, Bobby Portis, Nikola Mirotic, and Robin Lopez would all become great value plays. Butler and Wade combine for a usage rate close to 60%, which creates massive value opportunities if they are both out tonight. We need to take a wait and see approach here, but luckily this is the first game to tip off tonight. Be ready to make some adjustments to your lineups when the news comes out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jerian Grant $3,600 $3,000 0.68 16.2 -1.4 11.1 0.5 17.6% -3.3% 25 -0.82
Jimmy Butler $9,200 $9,200 1.12 36.8 0.1 41.3 -3.1 29.0% -4.4% 17 -0.80
Paul Zipser $3,500 $3,000 0.52 16.2 7.7 8.4 4.8 13.8% -3.1% 14 -0.79
Bobby Portis $4,300 $4,600 0.82 13.6 11.3 11.1 10.3 18.1% 0.5% 22 -0.57
Robin Lopez $4,800 $4,200 0.79 27.9 -1.9 21.9 -1.8 17.2% 7.2% 27 0.59
Nikola Mirotic $3,900 $4,000 0.80 22.7 -0.8 18.3 -1.0 18.9% -2.6% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – TBD

Secondary Plays – TBD

Orlando Magic

The Magic have struggled mightily this season and now have a worse record than the Sixers. They would typically be sizable underdogs in a matchup against Chicago, but they may end up facing the D-League version of the Bulls. The Magic come into the game as one point underdogs with an implied total of 101.3 points. Even though they have the fourth lowest team total in the slate, they are going to be without their leading scorer in Nikola Vucevic.

I seem to be stuck in the friend zone with Elfrid Payton. This might not be the best reference, but hear me out. Every time I write him off, he pulls me back in with a big game or two. Then right when I start to think there could be something between us, he leaves me hanging. Maybe things would change if I played hard to get. Anyway, I like Payton again tonight, especially with Nikola Vucevic out. Payton is averaging 33 fantasy points in his last five games and draws an exploitable matchup against the revolving door of Bulls’ point guards. Evan Fournier should be the focal point of the offense tonight and he is sitting at a playable price point on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I’m not sure what Terrence Ross has to do for FanDuel to increase his price, but until they do, he will remain a great play at $4,500. Aaron Gordon should also benefit with Vucevic off the floor and he comes into the game in good form, averaging 28 fantasy points in his last five games. Bismack Biyombo is a great example of why we have to be so price-sensitive in NBA DFS. He is an elite play on FanDuel at $4,600 and a fringe tournament play on DraftKings at $5,500. It sounds strange, but all five of the Magic starters are in play tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Elfrid Payton $6,000 $6,100 0.93 28.9 -0.9 27.0 6.0 25.4% -2.5% 17 0.24
Evan Fournier $5,400 $5,500 0.76 33.3 1.5 25.4 -2.2 23.9% -1.7% 15 1.57
Terrence Ross $4,500 $5,300 0.75 23.6 11.3 17.6 7.9 18.7% -2.1% 13 -0.06
Aaron Gordon $5,700 $6,000 0.78 27.8 1.0 21.6 6.9 19.9% 4.2% 27 -0.72
Bismack Biyombo $4,600 $5,500 0.78 23.4 2.6 18.2 1.8 13.2% 1.0% 5 0.18

Elite Plays – Elfrid Payton, Evan Fournier, Terrence Ross (FD), Aaron Gordon, Bismack Biyombo (FD)

Secondary Plays – Terrence Ross (DK), Bismack Biyombo (DK)

Charlotte Hornets at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Charlotte Hornets Miami Heat
charlottenba Vegas Total 204.5 miaminba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 100.0 Team Total 104.5
Pace +/- -1.2 Pace +/- -0.1
Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Marvin Williams Cody Zeller Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 6 2 5 9 17 Adj. DvP 13 21 15 24 22
DRPM -1.96 -0.74 0.21 1.68 2.06 DRPM -0.67 -0.37 2.42 0.70 2.76

Charlotte Hornets

The Hornets have won two games in a row, but are still three games back in the playoff race in the East. They draw a difficult matchup tonight against the scorching hot Heat, who are coming off of a big win against the Cavaliers. This is not a great matchup for fantasy production, as Miami is ranked fifth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency this season. The Hornets have an implied total of only 100 points, which is the second lowest in the entire slate. Kemba Walker has been on a tear in his last five games, but he has had three cupcake matchups during that stretch. I will not be paying $8,000+ for him in this matchup. Nicolas Batum had a big game the other night at home, but he’s a fringe tournament play in a bad matchup in an 11 game slate. The only interest that I have here is in Cody Zeller. He played 34 minutes the other night and will be asked to play similar minutes tonight. His ownership should be sub-10% and he is only $5,400 on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Kemba Walker $8,300 $8,000 1.07 34.6 2.5 36.9 6.6 30.1% 1.1% 6 -1.96
Nicolas Batum $7,200 $7,100 0.93 34.9 1.8 32.4 -2.4 23.9% 1.8% 2 -0.74
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist $5,500 $5,000 0.79 29.5 -3.6 23.4 -1.3 14.3% 0.8% 5 0.21
Marvin Williams $5,100 $5,400 0.74 29.4 6.6 21.8 3.4 16.3% -4.1% 9 1.68
Cody Zeller $5,800 $5,400 0.87 26.7 -1.0 23.3 0.6 16.6% 0.1% 17 2.06

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Cody Zeller (DK)

Miami Heat

The Heat have won six of their last ten games and have pulled within a game and a half of the Bulls and Pistons. With five weeks left to play, I like their chances of catching at least one of those teams to sneak into the playoffs. How great would a first round matchup between the Heat and Cavaliers be? Tonight they host the Hornets, who have really struggled on the road this season. Even though the Hornets are good defensively, Miami comes into the game with an implied total of 104.5 points, which is 2.2 points higher than their season average.

Tyler Johnson is expected to return to the lineup tonight, while James Johnson is listed as questionable. With Tyler back in the mix, Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, and Wayne Ellington should resume their usual roles. I’m not particularly interesting in any of the backcourt plays here, even though Kemba Walker and Nicolas Batum both have negative DRPMs this season. The only play that I will have ample exposure to here is Hassan Whiteside. The Hornets’ frontcourt is extremely short-handed right now with Cody Zeller the only player that could possibly slow Whiteside down. This is a potential 20/20 spot for Whiteside, who is only $7,700 tonight on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,400 $7,200 0.99 33.7 -3.2 33.4 -1.3 29.1% 2.6% 13 -0.67
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,100 0.54 25.7 -3.7 13.8 -1.4 12.4% 0.9% 21 -0.37
Dion Waiters $6,700 $6,300 0.88 30.4 -3.2 26.8 -4.9 27.5% 0.5% 15 2.42
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,000 0.56 15.6 -0.5 8.8 1.3 12.9% -2.1% 24 0.70
Hassan Whiteside $8,500 $7,700 1.16 32.8 -0.9 38.1 -0.2 21.1% -1.0% 22 2.76
Tyler Johnson $5,800 $5,600 0.88 30.4 -3.7 26.7 2.8 21.8% 2.8% 13 N/A
James Johnson $6,200 $5,800 0.94 26.4 0.6 24.9 3.1 23.2% -2.0% 24 N/A

Elite Plays – Hassan Whiteside (DK)

Secondary Plays – Hassan Whiteside (FD)

Brooklyn Nets at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET

Brooklyn Nets Atlanta Hawks
brooklynnba Vegas Total 221.5 atlantanba Vegas Total 221.5
Vegas Spread 9.5 Vegas Spread -9.5
Team Total 106.0 Team Total 115.5
Pace +/- 0.8 Pace +/- 4.9
Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Randy Foye Caris LeVert Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Kent Bazemore Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Dwight Howard
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 18 29 5 8 Adj. DvP 29 30 28 29 25
DRPM -2.74 -0.77 2.80 3.59 2.46 DRPM -0.07 -1.72 -1.25 0.68 0.20

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are coming off of one of their biggest wins of the season. They beat the Grizzlies in Memphis in a game where they were double-digit underdogs. Brooklyn has been surprisingly competitive during this road trip, which helps explain why they are only 9.5-point underdogs tonight against the Hawks. On paper, this is an awful matchup against a defense that is ranked tenth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. With that said, Vegas likes the Nets to keep this one close. They currently have an implied total of 106 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

Jeremy Lin is still on a minute restriction, but he has been a per-minute monster since coming back from injury. He played 24 minutes against the Grizzlies and should see a similar allotment tonight against a Hawks’ defense that is ranked 22nd in adjusted DvP against point guards. Lin is a bit too expensive on FanDuel, but can be considered a borderline elite play on DraftKings at only $4,500. Even in 24 minutes, he can reach 6x-7x at that price point. Outside of Lin, there aren’t many options here. Caris LeVert, Sean Kilpatrick, and Trevor Booker are all cheap and should see minutes in the mid-20s. All three have appeal in multi-entry tournaments. Brook Lopez is cheap on DraftKings, but Dwight Howard is one of the best low-post defenders in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeremy Lin $5,200 $4,500 1.09 22.8 -3.6 24.9 -5.2 28.4% 3.6% 22 -2.74
Randy Foye $3,600 $3,000 0.60 18.6 -2.9 11.1 -0.7 16.6% -0.8% 18 -0.77
Caris LeVert $4,000 $3,500 0.72 20.6 2.9 14.7 4.7 17.0% 0.2% 29 2.80
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,600 $4,400 0.88 21.8 -0.3 19.1 3.6 18.6% 2.0% 5 3.59
Brook Lopez $6,900 $6,200 1.09 29.6 1.3 32.3 -5.7 27.9% -3.1% 8 2.46
Trevor Booker $5,200 $4,600 0.96 25.9 -1.5 24.9 -3.6 18.2% -0.4% 5 N/A
Sean Kilpatrick $3,900 $4,600 0.82 25.8 -0.3 21.3 2.9 23.4% -2.3% 18 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeremy Lin (DK)

Secondary Plays – Jeremy Lin (FD), Trevor Booker (DK GPP), Caris LeVert (DK GPP), Sean Kilpatrick (FD GPP)

Atlanta Hawks

The Hawks have lost three games in a row and would need a big run to secure homecourt advantage in the first round of the playoffs. They should be able to snap their losing strek tonight against the Nets, who are always one of the top teams to target players against. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. You couldn’t ask for a better combination of those two statistics. The Hawks have an implied total of 115.5 points, which is the highest in the slate and 11.7 points above their season average. The best part is that the spread is less than ten points, so the Hawks’ starters could see a full complement of minutes.

If this game plays out as the Vegas line suggests, the Hawks could be the top team to target tonight. Dennis Schroder was benched in the second half of Monday’s game against the Warriors, but he had been playing great up to that point. His price is below $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and he draws a truly elite matchup against Brooklyn at home. Schroder is one of the top point guard options in the slate. Kent Bazemore, Thabo Sefolosha, and Tim Hardaway are all in play on the wing. I don’t mind mixing and matching these three throughout my tournament lineups and you can even consider them in cash games given the matchup. Paul Millsap’s minutes are trending upward and he gets to face a Nets’ team that is ranked 28th in rebounding differential. Dwight Howard is usually a better tournament play than a cash game option, but can be considered in all formats tonight. In addition to being a bad rebounding team, the Nets are near the top of the league in blocked shots allowed per game.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $6,900 $6,700 0.95 30.9 0.1 29.3 1.4 29.8% -0.2% 29 -0.07
Kent Bazemore $4,500 $4,600 0.75 27.3 0.6 20.5 -0.1 20.7% 1.4% 30 -1.72
Thabo Sefolosha $3,700 $4,000 0.71 26.0 4.0 18.4 3.2 13.9% -2.0% 28 -1.25
Paul Millsap $7,900 $7,700 1.04 34.2 2.3 35.5 2.9 24.8% 1.8% 29 0.68
Dwight Howard $7,100 $7,400 1.11 29.4 0.7 32.7 1.2 18.2% 1.0% 25 0.20
Tim Hardaway $5,900 $5,700 0.80 25.6 4.8 20.5 7.0 22.7% 1.4% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Tim Hardaway, Paul Millsap, Kent Bazemore (GPP), Dwight Howard (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore (Cash), Dwight Howard (Cash), Thabo Sefolosha

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET

Utah Jazz Houston Rockets
utahnba Vegas Total 214.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 214.0
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 103.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- 3.1 Pace +/- -5.0
Proj. Starter Dante Exum Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Boris Diaw Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Eric Gordon Trevor Ariza Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 14 22 27 18 28 Adj. DvP 3 1 3 1 2
DRPM 1.53 -1.42 -0.32 1.42 0.59 DRPM -1.18 0.67 0.01 -0.77 5.29

Utah Jazz

The Jazz come into tonight’s game a bit hobbled. Derrick Favors and Shelvin Mack have already been ruled out of this game, while George Hill and Joe Johnson are both listed as questionable. This is a pace-up spot for Utah, as they take on a Rockets’ team that is ranked fourth in pace of play this season. The Jazz come into the game as 6.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 103.8 points. Their total may be the ninth lowest in the slate, but it is 3.2 points above their season average and they will be playing short-handed.

Regardless of whether George Hill plays or not tonight, I will not be targeting any point guard against the Rockets. Patrick Beverley has the second highest DRPM of any point guard in the NBA this season at 1.53. Hill’s absence could lead to a higher usage rate for Rodney Hood and Gordon Hayward, so we should still monitor his status leading up to tip-off. Hood only played a handful of minutes the other night, but the Jazz were limiting his playing time in the second half of a back-to-back. He should go back to his 28-30 minutes tonight. Hayward is an excellent play against a Rockets’ defense that is ranked 27th in adjusted DvP against small forwards. With Derrick Favors out, we should see more minutes for Boris Diaw and Trey Lyles. I’m not particularly interested in either player in an 11 game slate. I do have some interest in Rudy Gobert, who is coming off of two monster outings against the Kings and the Pelicans. The Jazz will need him to play as many minutes as he can handle tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dante Exum $3,500 $3,300 0.59 18.3 0.0 10.7 -0.2 19.0% 5.7% 14 1.53
Rodney Hood $4,300 $4,700 0.75 28.4 -0.4 21.2 2.5 22.7% 2.9% 22 -1.42
Gordon Hayward $7,700 $7,900 1.00 34.7 -0.9 34.8 -3.5 27.6% -0.6% 27 -0.32
Boris Diaw $3,500 $3,000 0.52 17.7 -1.6 9.3 -1.4 17.6% 1.6% 18 1.42
Rudy Gobert $7,800 $7,600 1.03 33.5 -0.8 34.5 -0.1 15.7% 0.0% 28 0.59
Joe Ingles $3,900 $4,500 0.67 22.5 5.6 15.0 1.2 14.8% -0.9% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Rodney Hood (FD), Gordon Hayward (FD), Rudy Gobert

Secondary Plays – Rodney Hood (DK), Gordon Hayward (DK)

Houston Rockets

The Rockets draw the worst matchup in all of fantasy basketball. The Jazz are tied with the Mavericks as the slowest paced team in the NBA and they are ranked fourth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Even though the Rockets’ implied total is the fifth highest in the slate, it is 4.7 points below their season average. This would typically be a spot where I would recommend a complete fade, but the combination of Ryan Anderson being doubtful and the dynamic pricing on DraftKings makes the Rockets a bit more intriguing. Eric Gordon is expected to draw the start and is only $4,300 on DraftKings. Sam Dekker ($3,500), Patrick Bevelery ($5,000), and Trevor Ariza ($4,300) also stand out as nice values. Despite the tough matchup against the Jazz, I plan to have some exposure to the Rockets if Anderson is ruled out. I don’t hate the idea of using James Harden here, but he has only scored over 55 fantasy points one time in his last six games against the Jazz.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $5,600 $5,000 0.84 30.6 0.3 25.8 4.4 16.4% -0.1% 3 -1.18
James Harden $11,600 $10,900 1.47 36.5 -0.1 53.6 -4.4 38.7% -2.3% 1 0.67
Eric Gordon $5,000 $4,300 0.81 30.5 0.2 24.6 -4.2 23.3% -5.1% 3 0.01
Trevor Ariza $5,000 $4,300 0.72 34.4 -1.4 24.8 -5.4 14.5% 0.1% 1 -0.77
Clint Capela $5,100 $4,700 1.08 23.4 1.6 25.2 3.1 19.1% 2.7% 2 5.29
Sam Dekker $3,500 $3,500 0.75 19.3 -5.0 14.4 -4.1 15.5% -2.0% 3 N/A
Lou Williams $4,900 $4,600 1.08 24.1 -1.1 26.0 -6.7 30.4% -4.0% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Eric Gordon (DK), Trevor Ariza (DK)

Secondary Plays – James Harden, Patrick Beverley (DK), Sam Dekker

New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks – 8:00 PM ET

New York Knicks Milwaukee Bucks
newyorknba Vegas Total 209.0 milwaukeenba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 101.5 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- -1.3 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Lance Thomas Kristaps Porzingis Proj. Starter Malcolm Brogdon Tony Snell Khris Middleton Giannis Antetokounmpo Thon Maker
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 4 5 20 20 24 Adj. DvP 11 23 22 23 26
DRPM -0.27 -0.85 -0.33 2.18 0.11 DRPM -2.72 -1.00 -2.14 -1.50 1.66

New York Knicks

The Knicks are already counting down the days until the end of the season. I’m sure most of the players are already making their vacation plans. Tonight they head to Milwaukee to take on the Bucks in a game that features a spread of six points and an over/under of 212 points. The Bucks are a mediocre defense, but the Knicks’ implied total is considerably lower (4.3 points) than their season average.

The Bucks have been tough on opposing backcourts all season, ranking fourth and fifth in adjusted DvP against point guards and shooting guards. Derrick Rose and Courtney Lee have both been playing big minutes since Brandon Jennings was waived, but they are easy fades tonight. Carmelo Anthony will likely have to deal with the defense of Giannis Antetokounmpo, who has a DRPM of 2.18 this season. Anthony stands out as a decent play on DraftKings, but he is far from a core play in this massive slate. Kristaps Porzingis is still cheap on FanDuel at a price of only $6,400. We know that the Bucks struggle to defend the paint and on the season, they are ranked 23rd in rebounding differential. Willy Hernangomez and Kyle O’Quinn can be avoided unless one of them makes his way into the starting lineup.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,400 $6,400 0.89 32.5 2.1 28.9 2.6 27.6% -1.5% 4 -0.27
Courtney Lee $5,000 $4,900 0.61 31.8 4.9 19.5 4.6 14.5% 0.3% 5 -0.85
Carmelo Anthony $7,900 $7,600 1.03 34.4 2.6 35.5 -4.5 29.4% -3.2% 20 -0.33
Lance Thomas $4,400 $4,100 0.52 20.1 11.1 10.5 11.4 13.8% 0.8% 20 2.18
Kristaps Porzingis $6,400 $7,100 0.99 32.8 0.8 32.4 2.2 23.4% -0.7% 24 0.11

Elite Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (FD)

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (DK), Carmelo Anthony (DK)

Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks may not have the best offense in the NBA, but they have the sixth highest implied total in the slate thanks to a matchup against the Knicks. On the season, New York is ranked 25th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. We can safely give a sizable boost to the Bucks’ offense as a whole. Malcolm Brogdon carries some GPP appeal tonight, as he should see 30-32 minutes against the likes of Derrick Rose and Courtney Lee. One of my favorite plays in the slate is Khris Middleton, who is finally off of his minute restriction. Look for him to play 30+ minutes against a Knicks’ defense that is ranked 22nd in adjusted DvP against small forwards. Middleton is far too cheap on FanDuel ($5,700) and still worth a look at his elevated price point on DraftKings ($6,600). Giannis Antetokounmpo has let us down in some favorable matchups recently, but a $9,800 price tag on DraftKings is awfully enticing. He has 60-fantasy point upside every time he takes the floor and we have to like his matchup against this porous Knicks’ defense. Greg Monroe will either play 18 or 35 minutes tonight. If you could accurately predict the games where he gets big minutes, you would be a very rich man (or woman).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Malcolm Brogdon $5,000 $5,500 0.78 25.9 4.3 20.3 4.4 20.5% 1.8% 11 -2.72
Tony Snell $4,000 $3,700 0.51 28.7 0.9 14.7 1.1 11.8% 1.9% 23 -1.00
Khris Middleton $5,700 $6,600 0.98 25.7 5.7 25.2 8.9 24.7% 0.6% 22 -2.14
Giannis Antetokounmpo $10,800 $9,800 1.30 35.4 0.2 46.2 -6.1 29.2% -4.7% 23 -1.50
Thon Maker $3,500 $3,000 0.84 8.2 2.9 6.9 0.7 17.2% 1.4% 26 1.66
Greg Monroe $6,300 $5,900 1.12 22.2 2.0 24.9 0.2 23.5% -0.9% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo (DK)

Secondary Plays – Giannis Antetokounmpo (FD), Malcolm Brogdon (GPP), Greg Monroe (DK GPP)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious