NBA Preseason: Tuesday, October 4th
Welcome to the third day of NBA preseason DFS. We finally have a slate that has some star power and that should help even out ownership throughout the players. As we’ve noticed in the last two preseason slates, both rookies and veterans are making an impact so we should create lineups to reflect this.
With six games on the slate and not much time before lock, let’s get right into it.
Boston at Philadelphia
Boston
Projected Starters: Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson, Al Horford
Green Light: Al Horford, Terry Rozier
Yellow Light: Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart
Red Light: Gerald Green, Kelly Olynyk
Quick Analysis The Celtics are trying to get Al Horford comfortable within their offense and nothing is more comforting than playing the Sixers. I fully expect Horford to school Joel Embiid, so we should expect Nerlens Noel to play a solid amount to help contain Horford. Brad Stevens has kept quiet about how he will distribute the minutes, so don’t expect Horford to play more than 22-24 minutes tonight. While he’s a solid option he simply deserves consideration because the rest of the centers in the pool don’t have his talent. Terry Rozier has been getting a lot of hype in camp and finished the season strong for the Celtics. I expect him to play a ton, likely 24-28 minutes and he’s one of my favorite value plays of the day. Marcus Smart is a former 6th overall pick of the Celtics and I’m sure he wants to prove his worth as well. Not sure if he learned how to shoot over the summer but his defensive stats making him a viable option. Isaiah Thomas has been filling it up since day 1 in the NBA so he also is a viable option against the Sixers. Jae Crowder worked on his ball handling over the summer and should be able to drive more but I don’t see him going off in this game, still his defensive prowess also makes him a viable play.
Philadelphia
Projected Starters: TJ McConnell, Gerald Henderson, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Joel Embiid
Green:
Yellow: Dario Saric, Nik Stauskas, Nerlens Noel
Red: Jerryd Bayless, Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Jahlil Okafor
Quick Analysis Let’s start out by saying that Bayless is doubtful to go tonight due to a wrist injury and some guy named Cat Barber is also not expected to play. Sixers Coach Brett Brown said he plans to use Nik Stauskas at PG at times tonight. I listed TJ McConnell as the starter because he has started for them in the past. Still, it should be reminded that we don’t target PGs vs the Celtics. They are a strong defensive team and that is not going to change in the preseason. The reason I’m giving the yellow light to Stauskas is because he’s a good shooter and is fighting with Gerald Henderson for the starting SG duties and gets the usage bump by playing multiple positions against the Celtics bench. I’m totally fading Henderson because Avery Bradley has said he set a personal goal to be DPOY this season. Dario Saric will channel his inner Magic Johnson and play some PG as well but I don’t see him getting extended minutes in his first ever NBA game. As mentioned above, Noel could play a healthy amount and is likely incentivized to play well to keep his starting role from last season/ boost his trade value. Joel Embiid is restricted to 12 minutes, Ben Simmons just had his surgery today and Jahlil Okafor is also out.
Miami at Washington:
Miami
Projected Starters: Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters, Justise Winslow, Derrick Williams, Hassan Whiteside
Green: Tyler Johnson, Justise Winslow
Yellow: Derrick Williams, Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters
Red: Josh Richardson, Stefan Jankovic, and Josh McRoberts
Quick Analysis: Erik Spoelstra has always loved Tyler Johnson and after receiving a 4 year, $50 million contract over the summer, I’m pretty sure he’s going to be out there. He was not able to finish last season due to a shoulder injury and should be in line to see a good amount of minutes with Josh Richardson out. Justise Winslow is a scary player to roster because his offensive game needs work but in preseason he could come out and try to show off what he worked on over the summer. Winslow also has played a bunch of PF for the Heat so I’m expecting him to hit 24 minutes playing both forward spots. Derrick Williams is an interesting play but he’s still Derrick Williams and not very high on the pecking order on a new team. Goran Dragic and Hassan Whiteside are both dealing with knee injuries but I expect them to get in this game and shake some rust off. Dragic and Whiteside together are going to be focal point of the Heat’s offense this season but with lingering knee issues I don’t see them pushing it just yet. As much as I hate Dion Waiters, he deserves consideration simply due the fact its preseason and his leash should be a little longer.
Washington
Projected Starters: Trey Burke, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat
Green: Trey Burke, Markieff Morris
Yellow: Otto Porter, Kelly Oubre, Ian Mahinmi, Tomas Satoransky, Bradley Beal
Red: John Wall
Quick Analysis John Wall is not playing tonight and Trey Burke will be starting in his place. Burke didn’t do much in Utah even in extended minutes but should be able to show out a little bit in an uptempo offense. He’s a solid value play and should look to get his teammates involved as well. Markieff Morris against Derrick Williams is a spot to pick on tonight, just not sure it’s mandatory with the position being so deep today. Otto Porter and Kelly Oubre are fighting for the starting SF spot but I fully expect Porter to be the starter this season. The reason I have Porter at yellow is because Justise Winslow could lock him down. Kelly Oubre played well any time there was garbage time involved and should also be a viable option tonight. I’m not sure what the minutes will be like for Bradley Beal but if a report comes out before lock that he’ll see 22-24 minutes, he can easily torch Dion Waiters and prove that he’s a max contract player. Tomas Satoransky has been getting some hype during training camp and I’m not sure what to do with him so he’s a yellow wait and see to me or a low dollar GPP dart throw if you’re feeling like being a degen on preseason NBA.
Indiana at New Orleans:
Indiana
Projected Starters: Jeff Teague, Monta Ellis, Paul George, Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson
Green: Paul George, Jeff Teague
Yellow: Monta Ellis, Thaddeus Young, Al Jefferson, Lavoy Allen, Aaron Brooks, Joe Young, C.J. Miles
Red: Myles Turner
Quick Analysis: Myles Turner is in the concussion protocol and practiced yesterday but has not been officially cleared to play at the time of this writing. If he magically starts, I think he dominates but it’s too much risk at this time. Al Jefferson is likely going to start but he’s slated for a bench role of about 20-23 minutes once Turner gets back in the mix. With the Pelicans pretending to be Warriors South, I expect this to be a more uptempo game causing Al Jefferson to ride the pine after setting the table early. Jeff Teague really interests me in this matchup but I like Paul George to come in and prove he’s one of the top 5 players in the league. I’m a fan of playing studs that played in the Olympics during the preseason simply because they don’t have any rust to shake off. PG13 could exceed value in 20 minutes so I’m high on him with a bunch of new pieces still looking to figure it out with a new coach. Thaddeus Young, Monta Ellis, Lavoy Allen are all viable plays, it’ll just be tough to know how many minutes to expect from them. The Pacers brought over Aaron Brooks to spark their bench but I still think this is Joe Young backup PG spot to lose and he should play like it. C.J. Miles saw his scouting report over the summer and decided to up his game, he’s a cool pivot off of George but he does carry considerable risk if George gets hot.
New Orleans
Projected Starters: Langston Galloway, E’Twaun Moore, Solomon Hill, Anthony Davis, Alexis Ajinca
Green: Buddy Hield, Terrence Jones, Tim Frazier
Yellow: E’Twaun Moore, Langston Galloway, Lance Stephenson
Quick Analysis: The Pelicans are playing with a bunch of different roster combinations but the only thing certain is that Anthony Davis will not play extended minutes tonight. Terrence Jones was huge for me on Saturday and I feel like him and Buddy Hield should be strong plays once again. Hield is concerned about the threat of Hurricane Matthew hitting the Bahamas and could be playing with a heavy heart. Not sure what to do about the rookie in that instance but he could come out and try to represent. He’s a high floor-high ceiling guy that led team in shot attempts on Saturday, along with E’Twaun Moore at 12. Moore also played well but was 8 for 12 and I don’t expect that high shooting percentage to continue. Tim Frazier is also a strong play coming off 28 minutes on Saturday, I’m just not going all in on him because there’s other PGs that I have ranked ahead of him. Lance Stephenson are viable plays due to the fact it is preseason and he can fill up the box score, just not sure he is mandatory either because of his low floor. Langston Galloway does not have a ton of upside but could look for his shot early and often when he is on the floor. He only played 20 minutes on Saturday so don’t expect much more out of him.
New York at Houston
New York
Projected Starters: Derrick Rose, Courtney Lee, Carmelo Anthony, Kyle O’Quinn, Kristaps Porzingis
Green: Derrick Rose, Kristaps Porzingis, Guillermo Hernangomez
Yellow: Carmelo Anthony, Kyle O’Quinn, Lance Thomas
Red: Joakim Noah
Quick Analysis: Ah, we finally made it to my favorite game on the slate. We all know to target against the Rockets and with Mike D’Antoni now in charge, there will be no defense played. Derrick Rose will be excited to prove his worth in the Big Apple and said he has had his best camp in years. With him flying out tomorrow to deal with a rape trial, I expect him to channel his inner Kobe tonight. He’s one of my favorite plays on the board. Guillermo Hernangomez has been praised all of camp and should see extended minutes with Joakim Noah not in the mix tonight. Kristaps Porzingis will likely start at center and I love his upside here too. Carmelo Anthony will likely take a back seat in this game but he still deserves GPP consideration simply due to the elite matchup. Kyle O’Quinn and Lance Thomas are garbage time specialists and should also be able to make an impact in this game.
Houston
Projected Starters: James Harden, Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela
Green: James Harden. Ryan Anderson
Yellow: Eric Gordon, Clint Capela
Quick Analysis: Simple, play James Harden. His floor is too high and he played 28 minutes in China. He’s going to be popular but we should not be afraid of the chalk because we’ve seen how many people have been playing guys with limited minutes and they kill their lineups for us. Eric Gordon will get his first chance at starting but I don’t like him too much against the strong defense of Courtney Lee. Ryan Anderson is someone I’m going back and forth on. He led the team with 15 shot attempts on Sunday and if Porzingis is starting at C he won’t have to deal with the length. if Lance Thomas or Kyle O’Quinn start, I really like Ryno in this game and all season against slow footed bigs. Clint Capela will start the first half and Nene will start the second half. Capela got a double-double on Sunday and should be the anchor for this team. I just don’t like him if he has to deal with Porzingis.
Sacramento at Los Angeles Lakers
Sacramento
Projected Starters: Ty Lawson, Arron Afflalo, Rudy Gay, Willie Cauley-Stein, DeMarcus Cousins
Green: DeMarcus Cousins
Quick Analysis: The Kings are a mess forever and the only viable player here is DeMarcus Cousins. They have a new coach in Dave Joerger, who liked to start two bigs with Z-Bo and Marc. I see Cousins playing more center this season and using the athletic WCS to chase around wing PFs. Ty Lawson might try to prove he belongs but the Lakers are going to surprise a lot of teams with their defense this season.
Los Angeles
Projected Starters: D’Angelo Russell, Jordan Clarkson, Luol Deng, Julius Randle, Timofey Mozgov
Green: D’Angelo Russell, Julius Randle
Yellow: Jordan Clarkson
Quick Analysis: I love Julius Randle and D’Angelo Russell in this game. The Kings were a team we targeted against all last season but they should be a little bit better defensively this year with a new defensive minded coach. Still. Julius Randle is going to eat. He is going to be the leader of this team and with an improved jumper should be able to work inside and out. D’Angelo Russell gets the keys to Luke Walton’s offense and should have a really special year. He’ll torch Ty Lawson and any other PG they put on him and I expect him to play a good 24-26 minutes tonight. Walton has not shared a minutes distribution but I expect the Lakers young studs to put on a show tonight. I also like Jordan Clarkson but just feel that Arron Afflalo is a solid defender that limits his ceiling.
Los Angeles Clippers at Golden State:
Los Angeles
Projected Starters: Chris Paul, J.J. Redick, Luc Mbah a Moute, Blake Griffin, DeAndre Jordan
Green: Blake Griffin
Yellow: DeAndre Jordan, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford, Chris Paul
Quick Analysis: It’s pretty much a known fact that the Clippers hate the Warriors. Doc Rivers has not spoken about his minutes either and I don’t expect them to get over 22 minutes in a useless preseason game. This is a veteran team that wants to go deep in the playoffs for the first time ever. Blake Griffin has looked amazing in camp and will be chomping at the bit to prove he’s still one of the elite PFs in this game. Griffin has the 3-ball in his arsenal now so he deserves consideration as a top PF on the slate. Draymond Green defense does scare me a little bit but this could turn into a competitive game. Chris Paul is the general of this team and is always to be considered, just not sure how much they use him after he also finished last season injured. Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers are in great spots in high-scoring games and I expect both of them to do well here. Just not sure which one to pick, rendering them both volatile plays due to the time share.
Golden State
Projected Starters: Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Zaza Pachulia.
Green: Klay Thompson, Ian Clark, Patrick McCaw
Yellow: Kevin Durant, Andre Iguodala, Shaun Livingston
Quick Analysis: The Warriors did not play any of their guys over 19 minutes on Saturday and I would not expect them to play more than 22 at home against the Clippers. Klay Thompson can fill it up in limited minutes and deserves consideration in this game. Steph can always fill it up but how much is he really going to play? He only played 17 minutes on Saturday. Patrick McCaw is still a solid play and saw most of the backup guard minutes but also had his fantasy night artificially boosted by 5 steals. I’m personally higher on Ian Clark because he is familiar with this offense but either guy can do well if they get over 20 minutes again. Steve Kerr has not said anything about minutes distribution either but Kevin Durant can fill it up in his home debut.