NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 1
We have endured the foul savage beast of winter, the rancid and suffocating aromas of spring, and now finally passed those last long deadening days of summer. God only knows what I have done to exist in that eternal interval of wait. I vaguely remember white sands and cool salty waters licking my knees. Truly a most-wretched vision that haunts me still. Yestermorn I made my final goodbyes to my wife and told her I loved her. It will be close to 11 fortnights before I see her or the children again. But, alas, now is the time for rejoicement as the day of our salvation has come upon us.
FOOTBALL IS BACK.
The above prose is only slightly hyperbolic. As much as I loathe New Jersey winters, it’s still my favorite time of the year. There’s nothing in the world I love more than football, and specifically, raking in profits in DFS. I’m ecstatic to take over the reins from Pat Thorman to write this column each week, though I do need to acknowledge the massive shoes I’m attempting to fill. I highly recommend checking out Thorman’s work on pace of play and funnel defenses each week.
Without further ado, here are some of my favorite DFS tournament plays for Week 1.
Quarterbacks
Marcus Mariota (DK: $6,800, FD: $7,800) – In DFS, we’re typically looking for a few things from our quarterbacks. We want a quarterback who is playing at home and is favored, which Mariota is. Ideally, we also want to see a high game total (this game has the second-highest total of the week at 50.0) and a close spread (Tennessee is favored by 2.5) implying shoot-out potential. We’re also primarily chasing touchdowns from our quarterbacks in tournaments. Mariota, the league’s most-efficient red zone passer, just added Eric Decker, Corey Davis, and Taywan Taylor this offseason. Decker has scored a touchdown in 15 of his last 19 games. Davis had 46 touchdowns in his last three seasons in college, while Taylor had 41. This ranked first- and second-best at the position, respectively.
It also helps if this hypothetical quarterback is up against a poor secondary. In Mariota’s case, it’s certainly true. PFF’s three worst-graded cornerbacks this preseason (of 313 qualifying) were Oakland’s Chris Humes, T.J. Carrie, and Sean Smith. Carrie and Smith are the likely starters when in nickel package. Fellow starter David Amerson ranked bottom-25 in fantasy points allowed on both a per-target and per-route basis last season. Oakland’s safeties graded out only average last season and rookie Obi Melifonwu is out for Week 1, while their two starting linebackers rank as two of our 11-worst at the position and are especially bad in coverage. Mariota had an impressive seven-week stretch from Weeks 5-11 where he was fantasy’s top-scoring quarterback, but outside of that he posted just one top-12 week for fantasy. Though this implies a boom or bust nature for Mariota, I like him in both cash and tournaments this week.
Aaron Rodgers (DK: $7,000, FD: $8,300) – The Seahawks have annually been a defense to avoid in years prior, but seem less-imposing this season, even with safeties Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor back and fully healthy. Rodgers should draw low(ish) ownership despite putting up over 20 fantasy points in each of his last two meetings with Seattle. Rodgers is no doubt still a risky play, even after averaging 26.1 fantasy points per game over his previous 11 games. Like Mariota, Rodgers is home, favored by a slim margin (three points), in this week’s highest game total (51 points), but perhaps the greatest perk in playing him this week is we should know exactly who to stack Rodgers with.
Seattle ranked top-five in receiving fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs and tight ends last season, so I’m not optimistic regarding the potential of either Ty Montgomery or Martellus Bennett this week. Richard Sherman is still one of the best cornerbacks in the league, and Rodgers undoubtedly knows this. Since 2014, Rodgers has thrown 114 passes against the Seahawks. Only four of these passes were thrown to receivers covered by Richard Sherman. Throughout his career, he’s purposefully avoided the league’s top cornerbacks and exploited weaker ones. Starting cornerback Deshawn Shead is unlikely to play in Week 1 recovering from an ACL injury, and will be replaced by third-round rookie Shaq Griffin. Jeremy Lane – our 15th-worst-graded cornerback last season who the Seahawks tried to move earlier in the week – should play outside on two-wide sets and move into the slot in nickel packages. I’m expecting Davante Adams to draw Sherman for the majority of the game, while Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb are strong values, especially on FanDuel as the ninth and 56th-highest-priced wide receivers on the site.
Running Backs
LeSean McCoy (DK: $8,200, FD: $8,500) – After Buffalo released back-up Jonathan Williams, it appears unlikely McCoy gets spelled to even a small degree by any back-up (Joe Banyard or Taiwan Jones). There is concern fullback Mike Tolbert returns to his vulturing ways near the end zone, but McCoy’s upside everywhere else should mitigate this risk.
The other concern is that the New York Jets were more of a funnel defense last season, somewhat stout against the run but much weaker against the pass. I’m unconcerned here for two reasons: 1) New York’s No. 2- (Sheldon Richardson), No. 3- (Deon Simon), and No. 5- (Jarvis Jenkins) -highest-graded run defenders are no longer on the team. 2) Even if the Jets run defense were intimidating (it’s not), McCoy should make up for it with a larger role in the passing game this season. McCoy himself and Buffalo beat writers have all implied a heavy target share for McCoy this season.
McCoy should be running behind plenty of positive gamescript this week as Vegas has Buffalo as 9.0 point favorites (highest spread this week) at home. Behind our top offensive line in yards before contact per attempt, McCoy rushed for 5.41 yards per carry on 234 attempts. All-time this ranks 25th-best among all running backs to ever record at least 200 carries in a single season. Buffalo signed the league’s highest-graded run blocking fullback (Patrick DiMarco) this offseason and have their entire starting offensive line returning this season, and despite a scare with Cordy Glenn, all should be active for Week 1.
Immense opportunity in a dream matchup for one of the league’s most-efficient running backs? McCoy, though chalky, is bordering on 100 percent ownership in my early builds.
Dalvin Cook (DK: $5,900, FD: $6,500) [Monday Night] – Alright, before I dig deep into the analysis, I should confess I have a colossal man-crush on Cook. Coming out of college, I argued he was the superior prospect to Leonard Fournette. My only concern with Cook in season-long leagues was his ability to pass protect – he ranked fifth-worst in pass-blocking efficiency among all 42 FBS running backs with at least 100 pass-blocking snaps last season. This no longer appears to be a concern. Following the selection of Cook in the 2017 NFL Draft, Vikings GM Rick Spielman raved about Cook as a receiver, and he’s been used heavily in the passing game all preseason. Among all 83 running backs to play on at least 45 snaps this preseason, Cook led in targets (eight) per snap (49). As far as running backs go, it also doesn’t get much better than having Pat Shurmur as your offensive play-caller.
Last season, the Saints allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. At home, Vegas thinks Minnesota wins or at least keeps things close as they’re favored by 3.5. While Minnesota’s offense was underwhelming last season, they have the seventh-highest implied point total this week. On defense, the Saints are starting two rookies in their front-seven, with three players grading out “poor” last season, and only defensive end Cameron Jordan grading out above average.
Like with McCoy, Cook may get spelled near the goal-line in favor of Latavius Murray (12 touchdowns last season), which likely makes him a better play on DraftKings. Unlike McCoy, Cook’s offensive line is also a concern, though passing game-involvement should help here. At low ownership and probably the cheapest he’ll be all season, Cook is a great leverage play when looking to move off of some strong but far-chalkier options (Carlos Hyde, Todd Gurley) this week.
Wide Receivers
Larry Fitzgerald (DK: $5,900, FD: $6,400) – Fitzgerald is a strong value on DraftKings (21st-highest-priced wide receiver), but is a non-sensical value on FanDuel (38th-highest-priced wide receiver). John Brown has been dealing with injuries all throughout camp as well as most of last season, and per head coach Bruce Arians, is no longer the No. 2 wide receiver on the team. With so much uncertainty elsewhere, Carson Palmer should lean-heavy on his dependable WR1 in a dream matchup this week.
Fitzgerald ran 63.3 percent of his routes from the slot last season and draws a dream matchup against Detroit. Last year, the Lions allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers out of the slot (16.3). They also allowed the worst opposing passer rating to quarterbacks when targeting wide receivers out of the slot (119.3). Fitzgerald will be covered by the formerly-benched Quandre Diggs, our 18th-worst-graded cornerback in coverage last season. Diggs was thrown at 46 times last season, and allowed a 91.3 completion percentage – the highest ever by a cornerback in the PFF era. Diggs also ranked bottom-10 in fantasy points allowed on both a per-target and per-route basis.
Fitzgerald had a depressed price-tag in season-long leagues due to his advanced age and a projected steep second-half dropoff, but his legs will never be fresher this season than they are heading into Week 1. Only looking at the first five weeks of the season, Fitzgerald scored the fifth-most points at the position in 2016 and second-most in 2015. I know Fitzgerald will be chalky this week, but he’s too good of a play to pass up.
Terrelle Pryor (DK: $6,100, FD: $6,200) – Pryor is the 16th-highest priced wide receiver on DraftKings and only the 43rd-highest priced wide receiver on FanDuel. Out of 116 qualifying cornerbacks last season, Philadelphia’s starting outside cornerbacks Ronald Darby and Jalen Mills graded out 27th-worst and last in coverage last season. Last season Philadelphia allowed the fewest targets to opposing tight ends and the sixth-fewest targets to wide receivers out of the slot, and typically saw targets get funneled to outside wide receivers (fourth-most). With Jordan Reed and Jamison Crowder in tough spots, we have Terrelle Pryor projected to see 9.25 targets this week, which ranks fifth-most among receivers. He’s a strong play in cash, but I especially like his upside for tournaments. 27.6 percent of Philadelphia’s receiving fantasy points allowed came on deep passes (balls traveling 20 yards or more through the air) last season, which ranked highest in the league. With Jackson now in Tampa Bay, it’s possible Washington takes advantage of Pryor’s elite speed with a few deep targets this week. Pryor, like Fitzgerald is fairly chalky, but is so grossly mispriced I couldn’t care less.
Tight Ends
Tyler Eifert (DK: $4,600, FD: $6,100) – Over the past two seasons (injury-plagued throughout most of this stretch), Eifert has finished top-six among tight ends in 36 percent of his weeks, which ranks behind only Rob Gronkowski, Greg Olsen, and Jordan Reed. Olsen is in a fantastic spot this week, but Cam Newton feels like a question mark after attempting only two passes in preseason games. Gronkowski played on Thursday, while Reed faces a Philadelphia defense that allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends last season, and has held Reed under 40 yards and without a score in five of their last six matchups. Eifert is always in play in tournaments, but especially on FanDuel due to his elite touchdown upside (19 touchdowns in his last 21 games). Finally 100 percent healthy for the first time since 2015, with a touchdown in each of their last two meetings, I’ll gladly chase Eifert at low ownership in a few FanDuel lineups.
Jason Witten (DK: $3,900, FD: $5,400) – With everyone and their mother playing Zach Ertz on DraftKings this week, I like Witten as a low-cost leverage play. In Week 1 against the Giants last season, Jason Witten saw 14 targets – his largest target total since 2013. 25 percent of the Giants’ receiving fantasy points allowed went to tight ends last season — the fifth-largest percentage among all teams. The Cowboys get Ezekiel Elliott back for Week 1, but the Giants ranked fourth-best in yards per carry allowed (3.64) and held Elliott to just 3.59 yards per carry last season. The Giants also match up especially well against Dez Bryant (with Janoris Jenkins shadowing outside) and Cole Beasley (with Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in the slot), so I don’t see them having much alternative outside of Witten. He’s 35-years-old, and will likely fade down the stretch, but will be on fresh legs in Week 1.