NFL Advanced Matchup Plays: Week 11
The focus of Week 11 is beginning to narrow on games in Washington, Indianapolis, and – at least for the visitors – San Francisco. Fireworks in Cleveland may be canceled due to high winds, although it remains early. The other theme is a relative lack of glaring value plays. This can be a good thing, as it helps to spread out ownership and allows for more unique lineups. There will still be chalk, but it will be of higher-quality.
Speaking of premium chalk, we want exposure to LeGarrette Blount. Similar to David Johnson last week, how much is a matter of preference – but a complete fade is not advisable. An alternate option exists in Seattle and will be nearly as popular, but at a discount. We will talk about him and two other Seahawks below. Their matchup with the Eagles will not be highly-targeted, but for reasons detailed in this week’s Snaps & Pace it has quiet upside – at least on Seattle’s end.
As we get ready to dig into Titans, Colts, Redskins, Packers, and Patriots, first let’s take a look at some other matchups and players. Those in search of value will find some below at quarterback, in a pair of too-cheap wideouts, and via a rookie running back. Good luck this week everyone!
QB Eli Manning – New York Giants, $7,700
While the game features a mediocre 45.5-point projected total, the Giants’ 26.3-point implied total is meaty enough to sink our teeth into, considering how the game plan sets up for New York. Manning will be throwing early and often, as Chicago’s run defense grades sixth-best, while the Giants own our worst rushing grade and 21st-best run blocking. The Bears pass coverage and rush both grade a middling 20th-best, and they have allowed an average of 320 yards and 2.3 touchdowns to quarterbacks in their last three road games.
The Giants average 9.6 plays at home, where they go no-huddle at a higher rate (65-percent of snaps) and score eight more points per game. Manning has a 13-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio when using the no-huddle, versus 2-to-6 on his other throws. The modest game total and Manning’s salary – which sits below the big dogs and in line with the sure-to-be-popular Kirk Cousins – will conspire to keep his ownership rate low. Odell Beckham pairs nicely with Manning for a plus-matchup in which the duo will be heavily relied upon.
QB Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks, $7,400
If we operate under the assumption that the Seahawks will continue to struggle moving the ball at their 3.3-yard per-carry average behind their league-worst-graded run-blocking, the game will rest on Wilson’s shoulder. Over the last two weeks, that has meant an average of 315 yards and 3.5 touchdown passes. Increased health and mobility also bring his rushing prowess back into play – and Wilson scored on the ground in Week 9. We don’t have to look any further back than the second half of last season to know whether or not his surge is sustainable.
The Eagles allow the sixth-fewest points per game to fantasy quarterbacks and the game has the third-lowest projected point total (43). This will conspire to keep Wilson’s ownership low, despite his ranking as only the 15th-most expensive quarterback in a week without much value available. While the game’s point projection is low, the Seahawks’ implied total is solid enough (24.8). The Eagles’ have been tough on quarterbacks overall, but considerably less so when facing a quality passer on the road. None of their cornerbacks grade positively in pass coverage, with most grading deep into the red.
RB Ezekiel Elliott – Dallas Cowboys, $8,700
After last week’s high-profile explosion in what amounted to an island game, and it being followed by several days of MVP talk, we somehow still have a chance to deploy Elliott at low ownership. The fact that this will be our last chance this season to do so, judging by Dallas’ upcoming schedule, doesn’t necessarily make him a strong play this week – but it’s worth mentioning. Elliott is both PFF’s highest-graded running back and fantasy’s highest-scorer at his position. Over his last eight games, he is averaging 159.4 total yards on 21.5 touches. He is pacing at more than a touchdown per game.
Elliott’s ownership will be low due to his price in a value-barren week and the Cowboys’ opponent. The Ravens allow the second-fewest points per game to fantasy running backs. It isn’t a fraudulent stat, but it is enhanced by facing the third-fewest rushing attempts and – more importantly – only two run-blocking units that grade in the top-13. The Cowboys feature the second-highest-graded run-blocking and have a 26.5-point implied total as touchdown-plus home favorites. If we generously call the Ravens’ run-stopping and the Cowboys’ run-blocking a tie, then game script, game plan, scant ownership, and Elliott’s talent level push him over the top.
RB Spencer Ware – Kansas City Chiefs, $7,700
After a couple of down weeks on the stat sheet, which included leaving a game in Indianapolis with a concussion, some of Ware’s luster has worn off. Combined with a price tag in the same range as Jay Ajayi and LeSean McCoy – and $400 more than the uber-chalky LeGarrette Blount – Ware’s ownership rate should be palatable. Prior to the Colts game, Ware had posted 20.1- and 23.3-point outings in which he averaged 22.5 touches. With Jamaal Charles out of the picture, any ambiguity over Ware’s workload went with him.
Taken out of last week’s contest by game flow and Kansas City’s overall play volume (61 plays) against a Panthers’ defense allowing 3.4 yards per carry, Ware returns home as a 7.5-point favorite in a more accommodative matchup. The Buccaneers allow the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs and have PFF’s worst-graded run defense. They would allow more, but their pass defense has been equally inept. Ware ranks fourth among running backs in Elusive Rating, while Tampa Bay’s starting middle linebacker and safeties rank in the bottom 20-percent at their positions in Tackle Efficiency.
RB LeSean McCoy – Buffalo Bills, $7,500
Speaking of running backs priced in the second tier, McCoy is a bargain relative to his pre-hamstring-injury cost. Now the seventh-most-expensive running back, he was second only to David Johnson in fantasy scoring through six weeks. Even after playing Week 7 in Miami while clearly hamstrung, McCoy’s rushing grade ranks fourth on a per-attempt basis among the 41 backs with at least 50 carries. He is also seeing 3.6 receptions per game, a year after averaging 2.7 looks. Despite missing time, he’s gotten the 11th-most rushing attempts inside the 10-yard line and his six rushing touchdowns are tied for seventh-most.
McCoy ranks first in Breakaway Percentage on the back of 14 runs of 15-plus yards – which are tied with Ezekiel Elliott for an NFL-high, despite 66 more runs for the rookie. He is coming off of a 25-touch, 120-yard game in Seattle, and a Week 10 bye to rest up. Now McCoy gets a Bengals’ run defense the grades 21st-best and allows the ninth-most yards per carry (4.4). They have most recently surrendered 4.2 yards per carry and two scores to running backs from Giants (32nd-graded rush offense), Browns (26th) and Redskins (19th). The Bills rush offense is our highest-graded and averages a league-best 5.3 yards per carry.
RB C.J. Prosise – Seattle Seahawks, $4,900
Unlike tequila or sushi, DFS chalk is far easier to swallow when it’s cheap — and it doesn’t get much cheaper than Prosise. Blount is in a money spot against the 49ers, but will cost us $2,400 more, and Prosise could see a comparable workload. Only twice in nine games has Blount gotten more than the 24 touches Prosise did last week. He will probably surpass that against the fast-paced, run-defense-challenged 49ers, but Prosise is a comparably strong play given the salary savings. Thomas Rawls will be active and should approximate Christine Michael’s Week 10 workload (six touches).
Seattle’s matchup with the Eagles sets up as a pass-heavy one, no matter Rawls’ level of readiness. The Seahawks have the league’s worst-graded run blocking and average 3.3 yards per carry. They hand off at the 19th-highest rate, despite only trailing on the 10th-highest percentage of snaps. The Eagles allow running backs the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game, but the 12th-most receptions. Seattle will score their 24.8-point implied total through the air, and Prosise is fast-becoming a vital part. His seven Week 10 receptions were the most Russell Wilson has completed to a running back in one game since joining the Seahawks, and Prosise’s passing game grade ranks first among running backs over the last three weeks.
WR Mike Evans – Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $8,000
Evans will not be lightly-owned despite a muted Week 10 stat line, but remains worth playing in a bounce-back spot after his price dropped $500. His four targets last week were three fewer than his season-low set in Week 1, and 8.4 fewer than his average prior to meeting the Bears. Chicago double-teamed him often and, while he managed 66 yards, it was the work of his teammates that was most encouraging. Jameis Winston still threw for 312 yards and two scores, and the Buccaneers put up 36 points (with some help from Smokin’ Jay Cutler). It doesn’t mean our second-highest-graded wideout won’t see double-teams, but they should be less frequent than what Vic Fangio deployed.
Evans faces a Chiefs defense that typically has their cornerbacks play their side, so he should be able to avoid our 18th-graded coverage cornerback, Marcus Peters. Kansas City allows the fifth-most fantasy points to wideouts and Phillip Gaines is part of the problem. The 6-foot-1, 185-pounder grades 114th in coverage out of 116 cornerbacks, and the 6-foot-5, 231-pound Evans presents a size and skill mismatch. He leads the league in both targets and touchdowns on 20-plus-yard passes, and Gaines has allowed at least one deep pass to be completed in four of the seven games in which he was targeted.
WR Davante Adams – Green Bay Packers, $7,600
Adams will be popular this week for good reason. It is hard to fly under the radar – although he’s come close – when you are tied for the league lead in targets (46) since Week 6. Over the last month, Adams has the second-most catches (35) and receiving yards (408), and he’s tied for the third-most touchdown catches with three. He also has forced five missed tackles on receptions (second-most) and Aaron Rodgers has a 106.1 passer rating when targeting him – boosting the quarterback’s rating to 99.3 overall. For the season, Adams’ seven targets inside the 10-yard line are tied for the fifth-most.
While Adams has arguably been the Packers’ top wideout recently, it will be Jordy Nelson who finds himself in the shadow of Josh Norman. In a game with the third-highest projected point total (49.5), and operating in an offense that has thrown a league-leading 188 passes since Week 6, Adams is in an enviable spot against Bashaud Breeland. His coverage grade ranks 107th, and his 114.6 passer-rating-against ranks 98th-“best.” Whether we feel Adams is a product of volume or a quality receiver – he ranks 22nd out of 106 wideouts in passing game grade since Week 6 – he offers exposure to a likely shootout.
WR Donte Moncrief – Indianapolis Colts, $6,500
The Colts have the third-highest implied total (27.5), and their matchup’s 52-point over/under is the highest of the week. We want access to this game, and Moncrief, who was not available the last time these teams met in Week 7, offers a cost-effective path to it. He has played three full games and scored in all of them, while averaging 6.7 targets per game. On a per-target basis, Moncrief’s passing game grade ranks 21st of 119 qualifying wideouts. Volume shouldn’t be an issue against a defense Andrew Luck already strafed for 353 yards and three scores.
The Titans have faced the third-most targets per game, in large part because their run defense grades a mediocre 17th, while their pass coverage grades 26th. Tennessee allows the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wideouts. Moncrief will run most of his routes at Jason McCourty, the Titans’ nominal number one cornerback. Over the last month, he is the second-most targeted cornerback in the league, while allowing 284 yards and two touchdowns and grading 82nd in coverage out of 104 qualifiers. Moncrief will also enjoy time in the coverage of our 112th-graded cornerback, Perrish Cox.
WR Julian Edelman – New England Patriots, $6,100
The Patriots sport a hefty 32-point implied total, and while a good chunk of it will be accumulated on the ground, Edelman sets up for a central passing game role. Rob Gronkowski is questionable and, as a result, Martellus Bennett’s role uncertain. With Gronkowski out or limited in the first three weeks, Bennett blocked on an average of 46.0 snaps per game, versus 21.8 since then. Already averaging 8.2 targets with Tom Brady, Edelman should cruise into double-digits against an opponent who infuses opposing offenses with snap volume.
The 49ers allow the sixth-most fantasy points to wide receivers, and Edelman will run most of his routes (51 percent) against slot cornerback Jimmie Ward. While Ward’s coverage grade is essentially neutral (53rd out of 116 cornerbacks), he has allowed 11 catches for 123 yards and a touchdown on the last 18 targets against him since Week 9. San Francisco allows a league-high 71.7 plays per game and the third-most points per snap. The Patriots have scored the second-most points per snap since Brady returned from suspension. Speaking of returning, Brady and Edelman both grew up the Bay Area (reportedly on Narrative Street) and have never played the 49ers in San Francisco.
TE Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks, $6,500
To be clear, Jordan Reed and Delanie Walker have higher point expectations. They will also be massively-owned relative to Graham – as will Martellus Bennett if Rob Gronkowski sits. The last time Graham was low-owned after a disappointing four-target game, he ripped the Bills on a Monday night. They had a strong fantasy-points-allowed rating against the position, but hadn’t faced many targets aimed at tight ends – especially good ones. We have a similar story now, with Graham coming off a four-target week in a high-profile spot on national television to face a “tough tight end defense.”
The Eagles allow the second-fewest points per game to tight ends while facing the third-fewest targets to the position. They have played the Redskins without Reed and the Lions without Eric Ebron. The best tight end they’ve checked is Kyle Rudolph, as the Vikings imploded on the road. Rudolph isn’t Graham, Sam Bradford isn’t Russell Wilson, and they’re not in Philadelphia – where the Eagles surrender 15 fewer points per game. Other than the pair of four-target games, Graham has averaged 8.6 since Week 2, while grading as our second-best passing game tight end. He won’t lack for targets this week. Graham is again a combination of contrarianism and ceiling at position with volatile scoring.
TE Tyler Eifert – Cincinnati Bengals, $6,300
Despite a 71-yard catch-and-run last week, Eifert turned in a relatively quiet game due to seeing only three more targets. That won’t be an issue with the run-game-deficient Bengals in a funnel spot against a stiff front-seven. Eifert’s combined 12 catches for 198 yards and a touchdown in the two full games he’s played have him tied for the most fantasy points among tight ends during those weeks. His PFF passing game grade – a cumulative measure – already ranks 14th-best among tight ends, and Eifert’s 2.62-yards-per-route-run would rank behind only Rob Gronkowski if he’d played enough snaps to qualify.
Priced next to Delanie Walker, who is in a pristine spot against the Colts, Eifert should be moderately-owned. The Bills allow the 12th-most fantasy points to tight ends, but have faced only the fourth-fewest targets per game – something Eifert should not lack for in the Bengals’ highly-concentrated passing offense. A touchdown-scoring machine in 2015, Eifert dropped his one red-zone look last week – which came against a blitz. Last season, Eifert caught 16 of 23 blitzed targets for 176 yards and three touchdowns. The Bills have increased their blitz rate in every game since Week 6, culminating with a 45.2-percent mark against the Seahawks …and Jimmy Graham (8 catches, 103 yards, 2 touchdowns).