NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 10
So uh, Joe Mixon did pretty well last week I guess. Hopefully, you were still able to cash double-ups or h2hs without him as there was zero chance of winning a GPP without him. Justin Fields and Cole Kmet were also key pieces in GPP winning lineups as both were the high scorers at their positions on the main slate with Fields almost scoring twice as much as the next highest QB. Another story of week 9 was elite WRs going bonkers, as Adams, Hill, Kupp, and Jefferson were the highest-scoring WRs along with being the only WRs to go for over 22 FP. This just highlights how valuable getting at least 1 or 2 of the top WRs in your cash game lineup can be. Week 10 won’t have the Ravens, Bengals, Patriots, or Jets, who are all on bye. We also have some big-time story lines this week, as the Colts fired Frank Reich and gave the interim head coach’s job to former NFL center and ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday, who has zero college or pro coaching experience. We also have Josh Allen dealing with a UCL injury to his elbow, which could put a big wrench into using the Bills for DFS if he sits and Case Keenum starts.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup-building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal-line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies/tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games, I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside. I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for Week 10, how likely guys who missed week 9 are going to play in Week 10, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of Sunday and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Important guys on the main slate who are out for Week 10 include Michael Thomas, Romeo Doubs, Mecole Hardman, Darren Waller, Hunter Renfrow, David Njoku, Randall Cobb, Josh Reynolds, KJ Hamler, Brevin Jordan, Deon Jackson, Mark Ingram, Jelani Woods, and Daniel Bellinger.
Questionable players include Kyler Murray (likely OUT), Matthew Stafford (likely OUT), Ezekiel Elliott (likely OUT), and Mo Alie-Cox.
Josh Allen and Ezekiel Elliott are the names I’m most interested in from that group as I likely won’t be on any Bills offensive players if Allen is out, and if Elliott needs another week off, I will consider Tony Pollard the top play of the slate. It would take Cooks & Collins both being out for me to consider Chris Moore or Phillip Dorsett as usable options in any format.
Ashton Dulin has been activated off IR for the Colts along with Treylon Burks for the Titans.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week. Make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- We’ll see if Ryan Tannehill is able to return from his ankle injury, but regardless if it’s him or Malik Willis at QB for the Titans only Derrick Henry is playable from this offense and even he has a tough matchup with Denver.
- A couple of backfields have some interesting news, starting with the Dolphins, as Jeff Wilson out-snapped Raheem Mostert in his debut going for 72 total yards and a touchdown. I’d expect him to lead the Miami backfield in touches again in a nice matchup with Cleveland. For the Steelers, Mike Tomlin keeps hinting that Jaylen Warren will continue to see his role expand, and it feels like if Najee Harris doesn’t improve drastically this week, we could see Warren start to out-snap him. Warren could even see close to a 50/50 split this week, especially if he outproduces Harris in their first few drives. We will also see the debut of Chase Edmonds in Denver, which makes everyone in that backfield impossible to trust for big volume.
- In WR news, the Packers will be without Romeo Doubs, who suffered a high ankle sprain and will miss a few weeks while Randall Cobb is still on IR and eligible to return week 11. Allen Lazard becomes an immediate cash game target, as he’s been seeing 7-10 targets with Doubs in and now should easily see 12+ targets with Doubs out and is still very underpriced. Kenny Golladay could return for the Giants, but you couldn’t pay me to use him in any format, and with Claypool being traded to the Bears and the Steelers being on bye last week, we will see what their offense looks like for the first time sans Claypool, as Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth should all get target bumps.
- The Raiders will be without Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow, both going on IR, so Davante Adams becomes my top WR of the slate looking a massive target share while Mack Hollins and Foster Moreau will be heavily involved as well.
- My favorite game stacks are JAX/KCC and DET/CHI, as both have two of the highest game totals of the slate and are full of players that I love in DFS this week.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- My favorite p/$ QBs right now are Justin Fields ($8,300) and Patrick Mahomes ($8,500), as both are at home with excellent matchups, and their upsides just make it hard for me to see fading both in cash games. If you just have to save salary at QB, then I’d consider Daniel Jones ($7,500), Derek Carr ($7,100), Trevor Lawrence ($7,000), or Matthew Stafford ($6,700).
- At RB, my top p/$ plays are Dameon Pierce ($7,700), Travis Etienne ($8,000), Jonathan Taylor ($7,000), Dalvin Cook ($7,500), Jeff Wilson ($6,500), and James Conner ($6,300). Etienne is a cash game lock for me while Jonathan Taylor is also looking way underpriced as he should be back to full strength in a nice matchup with the Raiders.
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are JuJu Smith-Schuster ($7,000), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900), Christian Kirk ($6,800), Allen Lazard ($6,700), Darnell Mooney ($6,200), George Pickens ($5,600), and Adam Thielen ($5,900).
- At TE, Travis Kelce ($8,500) is the clear highest upside play if you can afford him, but I will likely go cheaper with Cole Kmet ($5,300) who draws a great matchup with Detroit and has come to life these last couple weeks with three touchdowns. Other TEs I like this week include David Njoku ($5,800), Dalton Schultz ($5,500), Greg Dulcich ($5,900), and Pat Freiermuth ($5,600).
- The Titans ($4,400) are my favorite defense for cash games at home facing a Broncos offense currently with a team total under 18. I also like the Steelers ($3,600) for cheap at home against the Saints as they’re getting back TJ Watt.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Justin Fields ($6,500) is still underpriced and by far my favorite cash game QB, while Patrick Mahomes ($7,900) is still a great play, but I prefer saving the salary with Fields and spending elsewhere. Daniel Jones ($5,700), Trevor Lawrence ($5,400), and Derek Carr ($5,600) remain other cheap QBs to consider if you need the extra savings.
- Dameon Pierce ($6,300) and Travis Etienne ($7,100) remain my favorite p/$ RB plays, while Jonathan Taylor ($7,500), Jeff Wilson ($5,500) and Jamaal Williams ($5,900) are other RBs I like.
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are Allen Lazard ($6,100), Chris Olave ($6,800), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900), Amari Cooper ($6,500), JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,000), Christian Kirk ($5,900), George Pickens ($5,000), Adam Thielen ($5,400), Darnell Mooney ($5,500), and Rondale Moore ($5,200).
- At TE, I’m locking in Cole Kmet ($3,400) to stack with Fields in cash games, as he’s just too cheap with his production lately and the matchup with DET. I’m also considering going with another cheap TE in the flex as David Njoku ($4,100), Greg Dulcich ($3,400), Pat Freiermuth ($4,200), and Dalton Schultz ($3,800) are all crazy cheap with more upside than any WR at those prices.
- For defense, I’m going with the Titans ($3,200), Steelers ($2,800) or Broncos ($3,000) in the majority of lineups
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
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Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn