NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Week 7
Week 6 was headlined by the Joe Burrow – JaMarr Chase stack and back at home against the Falcons I’d expect their ownership to skyrocket after both we’re pretty low owned last week. The plethora of cheap RB’s ended up working out well as Stevenson, Walker, Jackson, Hall, and Henderson all found paydirt but Eno Benjamin wasn’t able to do much with his 18 touches. Looking at week 7 we have a couple big QB changes as Dak Prescott is on track to return and Taylor Heinicke is set to take over at QB for the Commanders with Wentz out indefinitely (broken finger). The Bills, Rams, Vikings, and Eagles are on bye this week.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or endzone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is still out for week 7, how likely guys who missed week 6 are to play week 7, and any new injuries that we’ll need to monitor ahead of week 7 and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
Guys on the main slate who are out for week 7 include Russell Wilson, Carson Wentz, Baker Mayfield, DAndre Swift, Cordarrelle Patterson, JK Dobbins, Kadarius Toney, Darren Waller, Kenny Golladay, Josh Palmer, DJ Chark, Christian Watson, Jahan Dotson, Elijah Moore, Kyle Philips, Randall Cobb, Julio Jones, Logan Thomas, Cameron Brate, Joshua Kelley, Donald Parham, Jamal Agnew, Dyami Brown, and Treylon Burks.
Gus Edwards was activated off PUP and will be in the RB mix for Baltimore along with Drake and Hill while Sammy Watkins was also activated off IR for GB and will help cover Cobb and Watson’s snaps behind Dobbs and Lazard.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
As previously mentioned the biggest lineup change is Taylor Heinicke and Dak Prescott likely starting at QB this week. Terry McLaurin has been OK this season but hasn’t scored since week 1 so a change at QB could be just what he needs to get going again as he and Heinicke had some big games together last season while Michael Gallup and CeeDee Lamb are in a smash spot this week with Dak back at QB at home against the terrible Lions defense. Speaking of the Lions they have a chance of getting back a couple big weapons in Swift and St. Brown who got an extra week of rest coming off their bye (St. Brown is IN).
With Randall Cobb out with an ankle injury we should continue to see Lazard, Doubs, and Tonyan get pretty much all the targets for Green Bay especially if Christian Watson needs another week with his hamstring injury and with Cameron Brate out Cade Otton will be an intriguing value play at TE for the Bucs.
Christian McCaffrey was traded to the 49ers late Thursday night so Foreman and Hubbard will likely split the RB work for Carolina this week and McCaffrey is likely available for SF Sunday. The Chiefs are also reportedly going to start Isiah Pacheco over CEH today and he is a decent GPP play against the 49ers.
My favorite game stacks this week are KCC-SFG and SEA-LAC while HOU-LVR, ATL-CIN, DET-DAL, and IND-TEN are also on my radar for stackable games.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- My favorite p/$ QBs right now are Joe Burrow ($8,300), Patrick Mahomes ($8,500), Derek Carr ($7,600), Dak Prescott ($7,500), and Geno Smith ($6,800). If Justin Herbert ($8,100) was fully healthy and Keenan Allen is able to return then he’d definitely be in play against Seattle but since his rib injury week 2 he’s thrown just four total touchdowns which is also due to his favorite target Allen being out.
- Some other QBs that I like taking shots on include Taylor Heinicke ($6,600), Marcus Mariota ($7,100), Matt Ryan ($7,300), and Trevor Lawrence ($7,200).
- At RB my top p/$ plays are Dameon Pierce ($7,700), Breece Hall ($7,600), Joe Mixon ($7,400), Kenneth Walker ($7,300), Ezekiel Elliott ($6,900), and Travis Etienne ($6,200).
- My favorite spend up RBs over $8k are Leonard Fournette ($8,400), Josh Jacobs ($8,600), Austin Ekeler ($9,500), and Saquon Barkley ($9,300)
- At WR, my favorite p/$ plays are JaMarr Chase ($8,500), CeeDee Lamb ($7,700), Mike Evans ($7,600), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,500), Amari Cooper ($7,200), DK Metcalf ($6,900), Allen Lazard ($6,600), Brandin Cooks ($6,300), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,300), Terry McLaurin ($6,200), Alec Pierce ($6,100), and WanDale Robinson ($5,500).
- At TE I have to mention Evan Engram ($5,200) and Hayden Hurst ($4,900) at great prices facing their former teams if you’re in to narratives but my favorite TE for the price is George Kittle at just $6,600 who should be heavily involved as the 49ers try to keep up with the Chiefs. Greg Dulcich ($4,000) is my favorite extreme value TE coming off a nice game with a TD last week.
- The Bucs ($5,000), Broncos ($4,800), Ravens ($4,400) and Jets ($4,300), are my favorite defenses this week.
Looking at DraftKings:
- Joe Burrow ($6,900), Dak Prescott ($6,700), Derek Carr ($5,900), and Geno Smith ($5,600) are my top p/$ QBs while Taylor Heinicke ($5,000), Matt Ryan ($5,400), and Marcus Mariota ($5,500) are my favorite cheap GPP plays.
- We have a nice group of RBs under $7k in Josh Jacobs ($6,500), Dameon Pierce ($6,400), Breece Hall ($6,200), and Kenneth Walker ($5,800) and I will almost certainly start my cash game lineup with three of those four. Joe Mixon ($7,000) is also in a great spot at home against ATL but I think I’m going to get my CIN exposure through Burrow and Chase and go cheaper at RB. If you have the extra salary I’d consider Austin Ekeler ($8,300) as his PPR floor is elite with 10+ reception upside in a great matchup with SEA and for really cheap I’d consider Kenyan Drake ($5,100) with Dobbins out of the picture for awhile.
- At WR my favorite p/$ plays are JaMarr Chase ($8,200), Mike Williams ($7,200), Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,100), Mike Evans ($6,900), CeeDee Lamb ($6,800), Allen Lazard ($6,100), Amari Cooper ($6,100), Brandin Cooks ($6,000), Brandon Aiyuk ($6,000), Alec Pierce ($4,600), and WanDale Robinson ($4,500),
- George Kittle ($5,300) remains my favorite TE for the price while Greg Dulcich ($2,500) or Cade Otton ($2,700) are where I’d go if you need extreme salary savings. Kyle Pitts ($4,300), Robert Tonyan ($4,100), Gerald Everett ($4,000), Hayden Hurst ($3,500), and Evan Engram ($3,300) other solid value options.
- For defense I will be using the Bucs ($3,900), Ravens ($3,500), and Broncos ($3,300) mostly while the Jets ($2,600) and Panthers ($2,200) are solid cheap options.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn