NFL Grind Down: Monday/Saturday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Atlanta Falcons | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -6 | 47.5 | 26.75 | 6 | 47.5 | 20.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.6 | 16 | 14 | 11 | Offense | 20.3 | 21 | 5 | 27 | |
| Opp. Defense | 24.0 | 22 | 32 | 17 | Opp. Defense | 20.1 | 9 | 7 | 12 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 22 | 23 | 32 | 5 | Atlanta Falcons | 18 | 15 | 9 | 10 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 118 | 73 | 3 | 1,161 | Evans | 107 | 55 | 4 | 760 | |
| Sanu | 74 | 54 | 5 | 578 | Jackson | 89 | 49 | 3 | 657 | |
| Gabriel | 44 | 30 | 1 | 342 | Humphries | 64 | 46 | 0 | 435 | |
| Hooper | 56 | 41 | 3 | 461 | Brate | 63 | 38 | 6 | 492 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: Tevin Coleman (ATL RB) – Out (Concussion)
ATL Matchup Rating: 7.0
TB Matchup Rating: 5.0
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan looked lost at times in last week’s game against the Saints, as he has on an uncomfortably large number of occasions in 2017. If it suits our purposes best, maybe we can blame the last performance on the fact that it was a short week. The good news is that he has now had extra time to prepare for this game, and Tampa Bay is certainly a pass defense that we can attack with opposing players. It’s still difficult to trust an under-performing signal caller on the full week slates, but Ryan is in the conversation as the top quarterback on the prime time slate, almost by default. A lot of quarterbacks have proven to be solid against this Buccaneers pass defense. Ryan completed 74% of his passes and threw for over 300 yards in the first meeting between these teams, and he should perform well in the rematch in this important game for his team.
Running Backs: The big question here is whether or not Tevin Coleman will play this week. He remains in the concussion protocol and has yet to practice as of Thursday, so he is looking to be on the doubtful side of questionable at this point. If he ends up sitting out this week, Devonta Freeman gets a massive bump. The issue is that this is really hard to peg on the full week slates. This game isn’t until Monday, so Coleman gets an extra day to potentially recover, and this also means that we might not have the news by Sunday. This spot is a true wild card, but if I had to guess now, I would say that Coleman sits. Assuming we get no clarity before Sunday, Freeman will likely end up being under-owned. If Coleman gets ruled out prior to Sunday, you can bet that Freeman will be very popular. Keep your ears tuned closely to this situation.
SUNDAY UPDATE – Coleman is out, so fire up Freeman with confidence in all formats.
Pass Catchers: If you look at this matchup on paper, this is a mouth-watering spot for Julio Jones and company. Tampa Bay has had no answers against the pass for much of the year, and Matthew Stafford moved the ball with relative ease against them last week. Oh, and this just happens to be the team that Jones torched for 253 yards and two touchdowns a few weeks ago. Jones will be massively owned on all slates and in all formats. He’s an interesting risk/reward fade on the short prime time slates, though I don’t know if I have the intestinal fortitude to try that. If you do fade Jones, parlaying that by playing Mohamed Sanu or Freeman is a logical way to go. Logically speaking, it’s hard to see Jones getting shut down by this pass defense — barring injury, of course.
The Takeaway: Julio Jones torched this team a few weeks ago, so he is obviously an elite play here. If Tevin Coleman can’t play because of his concussion, Devonta Freeman is also an elite option. Matt Ryan enters the conversation at quarterback despite his recent struggles. This is a prime matchup for Atlanta’s offense, even though they are playing on the road. They have had a lot of extra time to prepare for this Monday game after playing on Thursday last week, and that rest is extremely valuable at this point of the season.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Quarterback: Jameis Winston will forever be compared to Marcus Mariota because of their pedigree and draft class, but both have disappointed this year thanks to shaky play, poor teams around them, and injuries. Atlanta is capable of getting a pass rush and frustrating Winston, too. Winston has been banged up since he early part of the season, and it’s hard to make a case for him as anything other than a deep GPP option these days. I’ll pass.
Running Backs: Doug Martin scored a touchdown last week but got benched after a silly fumble in the second quarter. Martin has also been underwhelming all year, while Peyton Barber has made the most of his opportunities. The workload is not a guarantee, which means Barber is very risky, but he deserves the lion’s share of the touches at this point. I will definitely have tons of exposure on the shorter slates, and I might even throw him in a few full week lineups. Keep an eye out for potential news on this developing situation.
Pass Catchers: Is Mike Evans really going to go the whole year without a 100 yard receiving game? It sure looks that way at this point. He has burned me for a couple weeks in a row now and about six or seven times over the course of the season. Maybe if I say that I am 100% off of him, he will have a big night. He will carry about a tenth of the ownership of Jones on the other side, so the GPP appeal is certainly there. We just haven’t seen the upside from Evans all season. It’s a shocking surprise for a guy who was treated as a top five wide receiver heading into 2017. A majority of the red zone looks have gone to the tight ends, and they seem to be rotating big games. O.J. Howard is out-snapping Cameron Brate by a wide margin these days, though Winston does like looking Brate’s way. Both guys are options on the short slates, especially since we will need some value.
The Takeaway: There is more risk on this side of the game, but Tampa Bay should at least be able to move the ball some. Peyton Barber has earned a larger role in the backfield and is a solid value on the prime time slates. It’s difficult to endorse Jameis Winston or Mike Evans at this point, though they remain on the GPP radar on the shorter slates. The two tight ends are also viable options. If you are looking for a defensive unit on the shorter slates, Atlanta is certainly in play because of Winston’s propensity to make mistakes with the football.
Saturday Quick Hits
We don’t have a Thursday night game this week, but there are a pair of Saturday Week 16 games, and the sites have offered us some Monday/Saturday slates. I will caution that we are still a full five days out from those games, so be sure to monitor news throughout the week to see if anything changes with regards to these games.
1) Despite being the #7 seed in the AFC right now, Baltimore controls its own destiny for a playoff spot, as the tiebreaker will flip to common games before the season ends. Tennessee would be the odd team out if Baltimore, Buffalo, and Tennessee win out. Why is this important? I expect a focused performance from the Ravens in a must win game at home against the Colts. Baltimore is a huge favorite, and I really don’t have interest in many Colts players.
2) Joe Flacco is not a great option despite his recent run of success. I prefer any of the quarterbacks from the other two games to either guy in the Colts/Ravens contest.
3) Alex Collins should benefit from positive game flow once again, but he hit the skids in last week’s win over the Browns. He’s still my favorite offensive play from the Ravens.
4) If you are looking for a player from the Colts, T.Y. Hilton makes a lot of sense in GPP formats here. He has monster upside, as we have seen on a few occasions this year, but he also has a very low floor. With Jimmy Smith out for the Ravens, Hilton could showcase that upside here. Alternatively, Jack Doyle is a solid TE play with the Ravens struggling against the position for much of the year.
5) Jeremy Maclin left last week’s game early and might be in jeopardy for this one. Mike Wallace was the primary beneficiary with ten targets and a 6/89 line against the Browns. He’s definitely in play on a short slate despite his inconsistency this year.
6) With Green Bay’s playoff hopes all but dashed, there is some risk of Aaron Rodgers getting shut down. Their playoff hopes are officially dead if Atlanta beats Tampa Bay on Monday. Keep a very close eye on this. He’s obviously in play if he goes, but that is not a sure thing.
7) Case Keenum and the Vikings keep on rolling. They coasted to a win over the Bengals, and he might be my favorite QB on this slate. Green Bay’s secondary is in shambles and got sliced by Cam Newton a week ago. Keenum is viable in all formats.
8) The Green Bay rushing attack is a little more uncertain now, after Jamaal Williams had just 10 carries for 30 yards against the Panthers. I still expect him to be the lead guy, but this situation is probably one to avoid if you can.
9) Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon are both in play on the Minnesota side. McKinnon had a big game against the Packers in their first meeting, while Murray benefits if you expect the Vikings to get a lead.
10) The viability of the Green Bay pass catchers is dependent on Rodgers’ status. If he does not play, you can’t consider Cobb or Nelson. If he does play, all the receivers are viable. Davante Adams is the only safe play regardless of who starts, as Hundley has a nice rapport with him.
11) Adam Thielen is a weekly top play at wide receiver, while Kyle Rudolph played through injury and scored another touchdown against the Bengals. Both are solid plays on a short slate. Stefon Diggs is a reasonable GPP option, and he finally rediscovered the end zone last week.