NFL Grind Down: Monday/Thursday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
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| Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Spread | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 40.5 | 22 | +3.5 | 40.5 | 18.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 19.8 | 19 | 10 | 17 | Offense | 15.3 | 29 | 26 | 12 | |
| Opp. Defense | 23.0 | 20 | 19 | 7 | Opp. Defense | 20.7 | 11 | 26 | 3 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Chicago Bears | 13 | 7 | 23 | 14 | Minnesota Vikings | 11 | 2 | 26 | 22 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Diggs | 32 | 22 | 4 | 391 | Wright | 18 | 14 | 1 | 154 | |
| Thielen | 32 | 24 | 0 | 358 | Thompson | 18 | 11 | 1 | 125 | |
| Floyd | Wheaton | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||||
| Rudolph | 15 | 10 | 1 | 109 | Miller | 20 | 13 | 0 | 143 | |
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
MIN Matchup Rating: 4.5
CHI Matchup Rating: 3.0
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: This game profiles as a defensive struggle, and we do not know yet whether the Vikings will have Sam Bradford back. I will update the situation as we get closer to game day. The matchup is fine, but it’s not like either quarterback is a game-changer in DFS. Keep an eye on this, but don’t fret about needing to have the starter in your DFS lineups.
MONDAY AM UPDATE – Sam Bradford is looking likely for this game. This doesn’t move the needle a whole lot for me, but it does improve the outlook for the Minnesota WR’s a bit. I am still not trusting Bradford. In the M/Th contests, I would prefer either QB from the Thursday game.
Running Backs: The Minnesota backfield has been a popular topic of discussion in social media during the early part of this week, and the honest answer is that we really don’t know how the snap distribution will shake out with Dalvin Cook out for the rest of the season. Jerick McKinnon has played on more snaps so far, but that’s because he was a complement to Cook, whereas Latavius Murray was more of a backup to Cook. I would expect Murray to handle the early down and goal line work, with McKinnon handling passing down duties. Both are obvious value selections on the shorter slates, but I will likely pass on full week slates until we get some data to see how the backfield is going to shake out.
Pass Catchers: Chicago has shown a good but not great pass defense so far this year, but they could have very easily been shredded by Aaron Rodgers last week if the Packers would not have taken their foot off the gas. Rodgers still ended up with four touchdown passes despite not even cracking 200 yards passing. Even though Minnesota has question marks under center, they have a pair of talented receivers in big play man Stefon Diggs and safety valve Adam Thielen. Both of them are very solid plays against the Bears, and the Vikings might have to throw the ball a little more with Dalvin Cook out of commission. Both of them are viable in all formats, and they are my favorite plays in this game outside of the Vikings defense. Kyle Rudolph is in play on the shorter slates as a touchdown or bust tight end option.
The Takeaway: Expect defense to rule this game. It’s tough to trust the QB and RB positions for Minnesota, though both Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon are reasonable value options on the prime time slates. Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen are both solid plays that can be used in any format.
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Get hyped! Mitchell Trubisky will make his first start for the Bears this week, and at least it comes with some extra days to prepare with the Monday start. However, I don’t like his odds for success against the Vikings. Although they don’t have the best stats against the pass this year, they do have an elite corner in Xavier Rhodes, though he may be slipping a bit. Also, the Bears simply lack talent at the pass catching positions. Let’s give Trubisky some time to get acclimated. On the full week slates, he is an easy fade. On the short primetime slates, I’m still not that interested. I prefer both Sunday night quarterbacks over him.
Running Backs: Make no mistake about it – the Bears will attempt to take all the pressure off their rookie quarterback with their “thunder and lightning” backfield combination of Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen. First of all, I must make sure that I do not get on a diatribe about how dumb that nickname is. Let’s calm down just a little bit here. It’s not like these guys are Walter Payton and Barry Sanders. There is certainly risk if the Bears fall behind in this game, but Cohen would see a boost in the passing game if that occurs. I think Trubisky will look to check down in a hurry, and I would not be surprised if Cohen gets about eight targets in this game. He is my preferred option of the two, but both are in play on smaller slates.
Pass Catchers: Who do we like here? Markus Wheaton? He has zero catches in two games. Kendall Wright? We saw how well that went in Week 1 when he was chalky. Josh Bellamy? No thanks. Zach Miller? Meh. With a rookie quarterback and an awful group of pass catchers, it’s really hard to get excited here. On the short slates, I might take a look at Wright, but I’m not all that excited about it.
The Takeaway: Even though we have a shiny new toy in Mitchell Trubisky, don’t get too excited about him in his first start. I don’t expect him to come out and dominate like Deshaun Watson. The best place to go here is with one of the running backs, or with the Minnesota defense. The Vikings defensive unit is a strong play in all formats and on all slates, and they will be very popular on the primetime slates (both Sun/Mon and Mon/Thu).
Thursday Night Quick Hits
1) The Thursday game definitely features a lot more fantasy potential, and it starts at quarterback. Cam Newton has been much better over the last two weeks, and Carson Wentz is turning into a star in 2017. I would definitely suggest fitting one of these quarterbacks into your lineups. I don’t have a strong take between the two.
2) There is potential value at RB in the Thursday game. Keep an eye on the status of Wendell Smallwood. If he is out again, LeGarrette Blount and Corey Clement check in as reasonably priced RB options.
3) Christian McCaffrey remains a viable option in PPR formats given his involvement in the passing game, but I would avoid him on FanDuel.
4) Alshon Jeffery continues to draw relatively difficult matchups on a weekly basis, and he has had arguably the toughest stretch of opposing CB matchups over the first five weeks of the season. He finally has a relatively neutral matchup here, and I like him in GPP formats for sure.
5) I’m not buying the recent surge from Ed Dickson. If you want a tight end from the Thursday game, Zach Ertz is the guy you want. He has 32 catches so far this season, which is very good for a tight end.
6) The surge from Cam Newton of late is good news for Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess. Both are reasonable plays as mid-range wide receivers.
7) All told, salary cap shouldn’t be a huge issue on this slate. No player is overly expensive, and you can almost fit whoever you want into your lineups. Use that as leverage in GPPs and don’t be afraid to leave some salary on the table!