NFL Grind Down: Thursday Night Football, Week 1
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots
| Pittsburgh Steelers | New England Patriots | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:30 p.m. | Gillette Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 48.5 | 22.75 | -3 | 48.5 | 25.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 26.6 | 7 | 2 | 15 | Offense | 29.6 | 3 | 7 | 18 | |
| Defense | 18.4 | 9 | 18 | 8 | Defense | 20.3 | 14 | 20 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| New England Patriots | 12 | 17 | 3 | 25 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 27 | 12 | 23 | 18 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Brown | 181 | 129 | 14 | 1,711 | Edelman | 134 | 92 | 4 | 1,066 | |
| Wheaton | 86 | 53 | 2 | 663 | LaFell | 119 | 74 | 7 | 966 | |
| Bryant | 48 | 26 | 8 | 561 | Amendola | 40 | 27 | 1 | 200 | |
| Miller | 91 | 66 | 3 | 761 | Gronkowski | 131 | 82 | 12 | 1,124 | |
The Steelers and Patriots kick off the NFL season on Thursday night in what should be a game to target for daily fantasy gamers. Vegas is calling for nearly 50 points in this one, with a slight edge to the home-standing Patriots, and with obvious superstars on both sides of the ball, there are safe places to invest salary in this one. The only question will be whether you’re willing to risk your hard-earned money on Thursday night players, as mid-week NFL games have often produced less-than-ideal conditions for daily fantasy success.
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Brandon LaFell (NEP, Out, Injury), LeGarrette Blount (NEP, Out, Suspension), Le’Veon Bell (PIT, Out, Suspension), Martavis Bryant (PIT, Out, Suspension)
Steelers Matchup Rating: 5.0
Patriots Matchup Rating: 7.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers enter the season with promising talent on offense, but their centerpiece, running back Le’Veon Bell, will sit out this matchup due to a suspension. Bell would have been a top fantasy option, but his absence creates a void that will be filled by a collection of other players.
Antonio Brown (FD $9,300, DK $8,900) is as consistent of a player as we’ve ever seen at the wide receiver position, with a streak of five-catch, 50-yard games dating back to an era when television was black and white and gasoline was $0.35 per gallon. Brown saw fewer than 10 targets only three times last season and converted 129 of his ridiculous 181 targets into catches. He’ll be leaned upon heavily with Bell out.
As an underdog on the road, you’d expect Ben Roethlisberger (FD $8,600, DK $7,300) to air it out all day long. Pittsburgh had the sixth-most passing attempts last year with Bell around for 16 games and figure to go to the air quite a bit in this matchup. New England was ranked 12th in pass defense last year in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, and that was with Darrelle Revis still on board. I don’t want to make a living picking on Bill Belichick-coached teams, but there’s nothing that should scare you away from rostering Ben or any Steeler passing game options in this one.
The Steelers are not only lacking in depth at running back with Bell out, but they’re also a bit thin at receiver with Martavis Bryant suspended for the first four games. Bryant’s absence will provide a starter’s role for Markus Wheaton (FD $5,700, DK $3,800). The third-year receiver has only two scores on 99 career targets, with only nine of those coming in the red zone. Compare that to Heath Miller (FD $5,500, DK $3,300), who has been thrown at inside the opponent’s 20-yard-line 25 times over the past two seasons. It’s safe to say he’s a pretty low-ceiling option. The other receiver likely to see time and targets is Darrius Heyward-Bey (FD $4,500, DK $3,000). Heyward-Bey is a veteran who has never lived up to potential, but who does possess above-average physical tools and could catch the Patriots sleeping for a big play. Throw in Heath Miller at tight end for a contrarian way to differentiate yourself, as the veteran tight end saw seven or more targets eight times last season and found pay dirt on three occasions.
DeAngelo Williams (FD $7,600, DK $5,100) is a mediocre running back option, as road underdogs aren’t the best spot to find backs for your DFS lineups. He figures to get most of the volume, as Dri Archer isn’t an every down, between the tackles type of player, and Jordan Todman shouldn’t be seeing the field for any reason but to give Williams the occasional breather. But the Patriots had the sixth-best run defense last year according to Pro Football Focus, and while they’re now lacking Vince Wilfork, there’s still more than enough talent to shut down a running game missing an All-Pro back and a stud center (Maurkice Pouncey).
The Takeaway: Antonio Brown is expensive but worth it against a weakened secondary, and Roethlisberger is a solid stacking partner. Throw in Heath Miller for some GPP differentiation, or take a flier on Heyward-Bey, who has big play upside. The running game is too risky, as DeAngelo Williams should get plenty of opportunities, but there are better “volume=points” options this weekend.
New England Patriots
Tom Brady (FD $8,400, DK $7,700) has been freed! One of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time was let off the hook for his alleged involvement in Deflategate, and will feature prominently in this opening game. Last season, the Steelers were terrible against the pass from a real and fantasy football perspective, ranking 30th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. And if you’re concerned about New England’s declining offensive line being able to keep Brady on his feet, rest easy known that Pittsburgh’s top pass rushing linebacker, Jason Worilds, retired this offseason, and James Harrison will see fewer snaps this year as the Steelers try to move on from the veteran who has been so good for them for so long.
Brady’s top target is, of course, Rob Gronkowski (FD $8,100, DK $7,000). The athletic freak/Greek god/party animal can only be stopped by injuries, as he’s a matchup nightmare every time he steps on the field. Last season, Gronk was targeted on 17 red zone passes, catching 11 of them and turning nine into scores. This might seem like an unrealistic ratio of catches-to-scores until you feast your eyes upon Gronk as a physical specimen, and then you’ll probably run to your computer and get him in your lineups. He’s the top tight end option this week, and will be virtually every week when he’s healthy and the Patriots have something to play for.
The Patriots don’t force-feed Gronkowski the ball in scoring situations, though, so there are points to be found elsewhere. Julian Edelman (FD $7,700, DK $6,600) actually led the team in red zone targets last year, and moves all over the formation to get open as Brady’s go-to receiver target regardless of field position. Brandon LaFell set career highs in everything as the receiver opposite Edelman last year, but he will sit out with an injury. That opens up an opportunity for the once-sneaky-good, then-always-injured, now kinda-disappointing Danny Amendola (FD $5,600, DK $3,700) and the often-injured, largely-disappointing Aaron Dobson. Amendola is worth a couple dollars of your money, Dobson isn’t.
Last year, the Steelers were middle of the road in run defense, according to PFF, and appear to have taken a big step back this summer. And as home favorites against a team with a below average defense, we can anticipate volume for the New England running backs. The problem is… who the heck are the New England running backs?
LeGarrette Blount is listed as the starter, but he won’t feature in this contest due to suspension. Dion Lewis (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) is a name to keep an eye on, as he has an anticipated role as a third-down back in the Shane Vereen mold. But if you ever tried rostering Vereen last year, you know how hard it can be to pick when that player in the New England offense is due for a big week. Brandon Bolden (FD $6,500, DK $3,000) has quietly kept his roster spot ahead of Jonas Gray (of alarm clock-failing fame), and will likely step into Blount’s role for Week 1. It would make sense for Bolden to lead the way in this game with the Patriots installed as favorites, but don’t put too much money down trying to predict the New England offense. With that said, it doesn’t cost a lot to roster either player on DraftKings, and if you think one or the other will score in this game, they are well worth your minimum-price investment. I would prefer Bolden, but the level of competitiveness in this game will likely determine who gets the touches.
Author’s Note: The Patriots plan to use a lot of two tight-end looks tonight, which absolutely brings Scott Chandler into play, as well. If you want to go cheaper at tight end, or play him in the flex on DraftKings, he is certainly an option with a lower floor than Gronk, but on par with most of the weekend’s tight ends. Also, the note about the running game in the tweet linked above relegates the New England backs even further down the list for me, but does add some appeal to Lewis on DK for the PPR possibilities.
The Takeaway: Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski are high-floor options in a great matchup, and Julian Edelman is too, but with a lower ceiling (especially on sites that don’t score a full point per reception). Dion Lewis and Brandon Bolden are a pick ‘em in the backfield at bargain prices, and Danny Amendola is a less-contrarian-than-you-think way to break from the masses when targeting this game for fantasy purposes.