NFL Grind Down: Thursday/Saturday
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
| San Diego Chargers | Oakland Raiders | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | O.co Coliseum | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 47 | 21 | -5 | 47 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.0 | 25 | 3 | 32 | Offense | 22.8 | 14 | 13 | 25 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.4 | 22 | 29 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 19 | 8 | 24 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Oakland Raiders | 17 | 19 | 15 | 31 | San Diego Chargers | 12 | 27 | 5 | 15 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Floyd | 61 | 27 | 3 | 519 | Cooper | 122 | 68 | 0 | 1,037 | |
| Johnson | 65 | 45 | 3 | 497 | Crabtree | 131 | 76 | 7 | 849 | |
| Inman | 44 | 24 | 2 | 379 | Roberts | 46 | 27 | 5 | 423 | |
| Gates | 78 | 51 | 4 | 585 | Smith | 12 | 11 | 1 | 53 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Stevie Johnson, Ladarius Green (SD, Questionable), Amari Cooper (OAK, Probable)
SD Matchup Rating: 4.5
OAK Matchup Rating: 6.0
San Diego Chargers
Quarterback: It wasn’t all pretty, but in a positive matchup with the Dolphins, Philip Rivers (FD $7,600, DK $5,700) was productive from a fantasy standpoint, with over 300 yards and three scores. He’s clearly not the week-in, week-out asset we saw at the start of the season, especially with his offense suffering a new injury every week, but he’s got upside with years of examples as to why he should never be counted out. This week he gets an in-state game against the Raiders, a team with a pretty good pass defense that allows plenty of yards (fifth-most in the NFL), but that grades out fairly well according to advanced metrics. According to Football Outsiders DVOA, the Raiders rank 13th in pass defense, while numberFire ranks them 18th. That’s because they limit yards per attempt and touchdowns per attempt, keeping fantasy point production on a per-throw basis down. Still, the Chargers almost have to throw to do anything thanks to all of their injuries, and should trail for most of this game. Look for Rivers to air it out, and show 300/3 upside.
Running Game: With Melvin Gordon done for the year, Danny Woodhead (FD $5,900, DK $4,400) will lead the way out of the backfield for the Bolts. San Diego will likely give some run to the other backs available, but the important touches will go to Woodhead, who scored four times last week, despite only 60 total yards from scrimmage. Donald Brown (FD $4,900, DK $3,000) will likely absorb most of the rest of the available carries, as he picked up 90 yards on only 12 attempts last week. The Raiders rank 16th in DVOA against the run and 14th in fantasy points allowed to the position, so this is a neutral matchup, meaning the price of both of these backs is appealing, but not in “must-play” territory. Either can be used in tournaments.
Pass Catchers: With the injury status of Stevie Johnson (FD $5,500, DK $4,500) still up in the air, we don’t know exactly what we’re going to get out of the San Diego passing attack. Javontee Herndon (FD $4,500, DK $3,000) and Dontrelle Inman (FD $5,400, DK $3,000) will split the work out wide if Johnson can’t go, but if the veteran does suit up, he’ll be the preferred play. But no matter what happens out wide, Antonio Gates (FD $6,200, DK $5,000) is going to see a healthy amount of targets and holds big touchdown upside. Gates has eight or more targets in each of his last three games, and has hauled in six grabs in all of those games. Six catches for 60 yards isn’t exactly what we’re after at Gates’ price, but throw in a touchdown and things look a lot better. Gates is a strong GPP option against an Oakland defense that ranks third in points allowed to tight ends on the season, but 12th in DVOA against the position.
The Takeaway: The Chargers are pretty heavy underdogs as they travel to Oakland for this meaningless fixture near the end of a frustrating season. With that said, they’ll still try to put up points and keep up with the Raiders’ offense, and Rivers, Woodhead and Gates are the guys most likely to feature.
Oakland Raiders
Quarterback: There has been plenty of discussion about how bad the Chargers are against the run, but according to DVOA, they’re almost as bad against the pass. The Bolts rank 26th against opposing passing attacks according to Football Outsiders, and while this hasn’t translated into a ton of fantasy points, that’s mainly because teams simply don’t have to throw to be successful against San Diego. The Chargers have faced the second-fewest passing attempts in the league this season, over 120 fewer than the Raiders have faced defensively. That’s the difference between a competitive team with a good offense and a struggling team losing every game, often by wide margins. On their way to a healthy margin of victory, Derek Carr (FD $7,400, DK $5,600) could score three or four times and pay off his salary, as he did in these team’s previous meeting this season. Carr threw for 289 yards and three scores in that contest with a nearly perfect passer rating, and has since thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but one of his contests. His floor is 250/2, his upside is 350/4, and he’s priced fairly on all sites. I like Carr a lot as a tournament play, although he’ll likely be popular. On the Thursday-Saturday slate, he is easily the top option under center.
Running Game: The Chargers are terrible against the run and Latavius Murray (FD $6,100, DK $5,000) carries the ball 16-20 times per week. What’s not to love? The only reasons to not be excited about this situation are Murray’s lack of efficiency as of late, and San Diego’s recent track record against opposing backs. Last week, Miami couldn’t get a running game going against the Bolts, and in Week 1, the Jaguars also struggled to get the rushing game going. Both the Chiefs and Broncos had decent days on the ground in the past month, but neither was able to score a touchdown. The last touchdown scored on the ground by a running back against San Diego was in Week 11, when Kansas City and the Chargers met for the first time. Could that streak snap this week? Absolutely. And Murray should be used in GPPs accordingly. I just don’t think he’s a cash game fixture due to his lack of consistency and a seemingly “not quite as awful” San Diego run defense. s
Pass Catchers: Amari Cooper (FD $7,300, DK $6,000) is dealing with an injury, but should play, and if he does, he’ll be dealing with shadow coverage from Jason Verrett. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, as Cooper caught five passes for 133 yards and a touchdown with Verrett following him around in the first meeting between these two teams, and is coming off of a two-touchdown performance against the Packers. His volume is locked in and his big-play potential is off the charts. He’s a great option in tournaments. Michael Crabtree (FD $6,500, DK $5,700) has even better volume, but much less upside and big play potential. He will likely be covered by the fairly talented Patrick Robinson more often than not, which I would call a neutral matchup for both. As such, treat Crabtree as you would normally, and consider him in all formats as a safe but unexciting option. Clive Walford (FD $4,800, DK $2,600) continues to get more and more looks in the offense, and will now face a team that ranks 31st in DVOA against tight ends. Walford has six red zone targets over the last eight games, which ranks second on the team (behind only Cooper). On DraftKings and other sites where his price is much lower than the top plays at the position, he is a very strong play at a frustrating tight end spot.
The Takeaway: The Raiders should score plenty of points, and they only have a small group of players who see good volume and should be participating in the scoring. Carr, Murray and Cooper are the top plays, while Crabtree is solid but lacks upside, and Walford is risky but is probably the sneakiest way to get exposure to this offense.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles
| Washington Redskins | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Saturday – 8:25 p.m. | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 47.5 | 22.25 | -3 | 47.5 | 25.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.6 | 16 | 16 | 20 | Offense | 22.7 | 15 | 15 | 13 | |
| Opp. Defense | 25.9 | 27 | 25 | 30 | Opp. Defense | 23.7 | 16 | 13 | 28 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 30 | 26 | 31 | 1 | Washington Redskins | 19 | 16 | 23 | 8 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jackson | 43 | 26 | 4 | 488 | Matthews | 111 | 72 | 5 | 839 | |
| Garcon | 95 | 62 | 4 | 648 | Cooper | 39 | 21 | 2 | 327 | |
| Crowder | 68 | 52 | 1 | 484 | Agholor | 36 | 19 | 1 | 225 | |
| Reed | 99 | 74 | 9 | 778 | Celek | 32 | 24 | 3 | 342 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
WAS Matchup Rating: 6.0
PHI Matchup Rating: 6.0
Washington Redskins
Quarterback: A lot of very smart fantasy analysts are going to tell you to play Kirk Cousins (FD $7,500, DK $5,500) this week. He’s coming off of a huge game, and is facing a defense that has allowed huge games on multiple occasions this season. But the fact that this game is on the road should be cause for concern for those trusting in the Washington passer. On the season, Cousins has six touchdowns and nine interceptions in six road contests, with 16 touchdowns and two picks at home. His yards per attempt drop by a full two yards on the road, bringing him from a would-be third-place 8.4 YPA at home to a would-be 32nd place 6.5 YPA on the road. He has never been as good of a quarterback on the road as he has been at home, and when you combine that with his lack of production while under pressure, it’s obvious that Cousins can be easily taken out of his rhythm in less-than-ideal situations. In his career, Cousins has three interceptions in 11 wins he’s started, and 27 picks in 17 losses. There is no in between for Cousins. He is either on point and playing well, which usually only happens at home, or he’s struggling to keep the ball headed in the direction of his teammates. Philadelphia is an opportunistic defense that allows big games but has the talent to frustrate and limit any passer, as well. It would be foolish to say to totally ignore Cousins, but he is nowhere near a must play, and is a very strong fade candidate, even on the Thursday-Saturday slate.
Running Game: Alfred Morris (FD $5,800, DK $3,600) and Matt Jones (FD $5,100, DK $3,800) have been splitting the work out of the backfield for Washington as of late, and the two have seemingly alternated decent performances. The Eagles are a poor run defense according to DVOA (26th), numberFire (28th) and fantasy points allowed (sixth-most). If you feel confident that one of these two backs will be the one to break out and have a better outing in this game, roster them in DFS. Jones has been getting more red zone work (14 carries in the last six games as compared to only six for Morris), but it’s Cousins who has scored the most red zone rushing touchdowns over that span. Assuming there is no negative health news for Jones between now and game time, he’d be my preferred choice, but either back could be the right play in a good matchup.
Pass Catchers: The top pass catcher for Washington is Jordan Reed (FD $6,900, DK $6,500), who has six red zone touchdowns on 12 targets over that same six-game span mentioned above. No other player for Washington has more than three red zone looks over that time frame. He’s the team’s best option inside the 20, and outside of big plays to DeSean Jackson (FD $6,800, DK $5,000), he’s their best option at any point on the field. Jackson has nice boom-or-bust upside against his former team, whom he did not get to face earlier this year. In two games against Philly in his career, he has averaged 122 yards per contest, and always has the potential for an 80-yard touchdown that instantly allows him to hit value. With Jackson back, the appeal for every other Washington pass catcher is diminished, so stick with the speedster or the talented tight end when targeting weapons in the Washington offense. The Eagles allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to receivers on the season, but are much better against tight ends. That leads me to prefer Jackson as a tournament play, but given the lack of options, Reed is the top Thursday-Saturday tight end, and viable in full weekend contests as well as a rare tight end to see lots of volume.
The Takeaway: Washington enter this game as slight underdogs against a Philly team they defeated at home by a slim margin in October. There will still be points, especially thanks to the up-tempo Eagles offense, so look for Jackson and Reed to lead the way, with Cousins and either running back viable, but not highly recommended.
Philadelphia Eagles
Quarterback: Sam Bradford (FD $6,300, DK $5,100) has multiple touchdowns in two of his last three games, a feat he accomplished only twice in his first nine games under center this season. One of those games was a three-score performance against this same Washington team, still Bradford’s best fantasy performance to date. Quarterbacks can expect 200+ yards and two touchdowns with a slim chance of a turnover against Washington based on their game log this season, and as the 20th DVOA defense against the pass, the numbers generally suggest this is a slightly advantageous matchup for quarterbacks. Bradford will be playing at home, and that gives him just enough of a boost to be considered in tournaments this week. On the Thursday-Saturday slate, he’s right there with Rivers as the second option behind Carr, but on the full slate, he’s a secondary pick for GPPs.
Running Game: Ryan Mathews (FD $5,400, DK $3,800) and Darren Sproles (FD $5,600, DK $4,200) are the backs of choice for the Philadelphia offense at this point, which would have been a smart setup from the start, saving the money spent on DeMarco Murray (FD $5,700, DK $3,800) to upgrade other aspects of the team, like the offensive line or defense. Mathews and Sproles provide a nice one-two punch, but neither stands out as a great DFS option due to uncertain roles. Sproles does have nice upside in PPR formats, as he’s seen a decent amount of targets in recent weeks in addition to six or more carries in each of his last three. Washington is a decent, but not great, matchup for virtually every position, which means the Eagles backs are solid options on the thin Thursday-Saturday slate, but mediocre plays for the full weekend contests.
Pass Catchers: Jordan Matthews (FD $6,400, DK $4,400) re-emerged last weekend with 11 targets and eight receptions for well over 100 yards and a score. This week he’ll face a Washington defense which has one talented corner, Bashaud Breeland, who plays outside, and a few other decent but not intimidating matchups at the other corner spots. As mentioned above, this continues a trend for Washington, who are not a great matchup for any one position, but aren’t a bad matchup, either. Matthews was limited in the first meeting between these teams, as other wideouts made the big plays and got the touchdowns. Still, Matthews is the top WR option, as none of the other players at the position see enough volume to justify selection. Zach Ertz (FD $5,000, DK $3,100) is the other pass catcher of interest, with 20 targets over his last two games, and Washington ranking 25th against the tight end position per DVOA. He doesn’t have the same talent and upside as Reed, but he’s right there as a top play on the Thursday-Saturday slate, and is a decent GPP play on the full weekend slate, especially in PPR formats.
The Takeaway: The Eagles are home favorites and always have huge upside in their up-tempo offense. Washington offers a favorable matchup for nearly every position, but has no glaring weakness, so consider every Eagle viable, but none a must play. The Philly defense is your best bet for the Thursday-Saturday slate, as Kirk Cousins turns the ball over often on the road, and their defense and special teams score touchdowns at a higher rate than most other squads.