NFL Grind Down: Week 15
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get one year of Grinders Incentives for free ($300 value).
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
| Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | Mall of America Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5 | 43 | 18.75 | -5.5 | 43 | 24.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 20.9 | 22 | 23 | 15 | Offense | 19.8 | 26 | 31 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 19.6 | 9 | 8 | 20 | Opp. Defense | 24.2 | 18 | 2 | 26 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Minnesota Vikings | 13 | 7 | 15 | 11 | Chicago Bears | 22 | 9 | 11 | 9 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jeffery | 89 | 53 | 3 | 797 | Wallace | 60 | 33 | 2 | 409 | |
| Royal | 38 | 27 | 1 | 185 | Diggs | 73 | 44 | 2 | 651 | |
| Bellamy | 25 | 13 | 1 | 158 | Wright | 41 | 26 | 0 | 361 | |
| Miller | 32 | 21 | 5 | 313 | Rudolph | 67 | 45 | 4 | 421 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Alshon Jeffery, Zach Miller (CHI, Questionable)
CHI Matchup Rating: 3.0
MIN Matchup Rating: 5.0
Chicago Bears
Quarterback: Jay Cutler (FD $6,700, DK $5,300) is the definition of a GPP quarterback. You can never trust him but you can never count him out. Last week he delivered a nice stat line against Washington after back-to-back-to-back poor outings. He has three-score upside, but 220/1/1 downside. This week’s matchup with Minnesota will be a chance to kick a man while he’s down, as Minnesota has allowed six touchdowns to quarterbacks in their last two games, and multiple scores to everyone not named Matt Ryan since Week 9. The Vikings now rank 17th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass, and are just below average in FanDuel points per game allowed to opposing passers. Cutler had a decent fantasy game against the Vikings last time out, boosted by a rushing touchdown, but fantasy owners will want more than his 211/1/0 end product if they invest in him this week. The upside is there for the Chicago quarterback, but the range of outcomes is too wide and volatile to invest heavily.
Running Game: Speaking of volatile, the Minnesota run defense has been just that this season. They’ve allowed only five rushing touchdowns to backs on the year, but all five came from backs who carried for 89 yards or more. Seven backs have reached or exceeded that mark this season, and no other single RB has picked up more than 51 yards on the ground against the Vikings. Jeremy Langford (FD $5,300, DK $3,900) was among those kept under 51 yards by the Minnesota defense in a Week 8 meeting, and now he’ll be splitting work with Matt Forte (FD $7,900, DK $6,500). Since Forte’s return, nine of the 13 RB carries in the red zone have gone to the veteran back, with Langford tied with third-stringer Ka’Deem Carey with only two red zone carries. Langford does have more red zone targets, but it’s pretty clear that Forte is the preferred back when in scoring range. Therefore, he’s my preferred back if I’m banking on a Minnesota letdown on run defense, which is a risky bet to make.
Pass Catchers: Alshon Jeffery (FD $7,900, DK $7,300) is the Chicago pass catcher you want to target. There’s not a lot to analyze here. Minnesota is a run-of-the-mill pass defense and Jeffery is an elite receiver who is heavily targeted and a red zone threat. Zach Miller (FD $5,500, DK $3,600) is the other Chicago pass catcher worth considering, as it appears he steps right into the Martellus Bennett role and sees a good amount of work over the middle of the field.The Vikings are sub par at defending tight ends per DVOA, so on sites where Miller is priced well below the pack (not FanDuel, where prices are bunched together), he’s a strong option.
The Takeaway: The Bears have a boom or bust offense and they’re facing a defense that seems to be showing some flaws as of late. Alshon Jeffery is an elite option, and Zach Miller is a strong play where his price is right, while Forte and Cutler are decent GPP plays.
Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback: Since giving up three or more touchdown passes for the third time in six weeks to start the season, the Bears have allowed only seven passing touchdowns in their last seven games. They have allowed some nice rushing outputs in recent weeks from opposing signal callers, but overall, the Chicago pass defense is improving, and not worth picking on when the option at hand is a subpar passer himself. Teddy Bridgewater (FD $6,000, DK $5,100) has multi-touchdown upside, but his floor is very low, as we’ve seen with his five zero-touchdown passing games this season. Bridgewater’s rushing production is sporadic, as it’s not really a big part of his game, as he’s more of a “throw on the run” rather than “run all the time” type of QB. This is a mediocre matchup for a mediocre at best fantasy quarterback, so you can find better uses of your daily fantasy dollars this week.
Running Game: One of those better uses is starting the best running back in the NFL against the worst defense according to DVOA. Adrian Peterson (FD $8,600, DK $7,100) will face a Chicago run defense that Football Outsiders has determined to be the worst in the entire NFL. The Rams and 49ers were unable to establish a good ground game against Chicago in recent weeks, but teams that did found success, as Washington used a collaborative effort to pick up 86 yards and a touchdown, while Eddie Lacy, Ronnie Hillman and Peterson himself all had 100+ rushing yards over the past couple of months. The fantasy points for backs haven’t been there against Chicago due to a lack of touchdowns scored, but the Bears allow the third-most yards per attempt in the league, and could give up a big play or two to the Minnesota runner. I could not see myself building a lineup for a cash game without Peterson this weekend.
Pass Catchers: Even in a 300-yard effort from Bridgewater last week, there were no standout options among the pass catchers. Kyle Rudolph (FD $5,000, DK $3,600) sees surprisingly consistent volume for a tight end, especially a tight end with such unreliable hands, but he’s a matchup nightmare and could be a focal point of the passing game this week. Otherwise, you’re left sorting through a receiving corps that has seen no wideout get more than seven targets since Week 11, and no double-digit targets since Week 8. Both of those high target totals went to Stefon Diggs (FD $5,700, DK $4,000), who is the receiver to play if you insist upon picking on a very average Chicago pass defense.
The Takeaway: Adrian Peterson is a core play this weekend, while Kyle Rudolph is the only other notable Minnesota offensive option.
Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Atlanta Falcons | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 1 p.m. | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 49 | 23 | -3 | 49 | 26 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.5 | 19 | 6 | 16 | Offense | 25.1 | 9 | 12 | 17 | |
| Opp. Defense | 27.5 | 30 | 26 | 13 | Opp. Defense | 22.7 | 14 | 9 | 15 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 30 | 21 | 16 | 24 | Atlanta Falcons | 6 | 31 | 2 | 25 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Jones | 168 | 109 | 6 | 1,426 | Robinson | 128 | 66 | 12 | 1,084 | |
| White | 56 | 34 | 1 | 382 | Hurns | 85 | 51 | 8 | 863 | |
| Hardy | 22 | 12 | 0 | 109 | Lee | 20 | 7 | 0 | 118 | |
| Tamme | 71 | 51 | 1 | 567 | Thomas | 63 | 36 | 5 | 352 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: T.J. Yeldon (JAC, Doubtful)
ATL Matchup Rating: 6.5
JAC Matchup Rating: 6.5
Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (FD $7,200, DK $5,700) has been among the more disappointing fantasy players so far this season, failing to produce big stat lines in nice matchups despite having a couple of top-notch weapons. He’s been sloppy with the ball, throwing seven interceptions in his last four games, and he’s only thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his 13 appearances. He’ll face a Jacksonville defense this week that ranks 27th against the pass according to DVOA, and has allowed the third-most points to opposing passers, but that has held two teams without a passing touchdown over the last month. There are no guarantees that a game against the Jaguars will result in a big game for a quarterback, especially when that quarterback is playing poorly. The Falcons are road underdogs against the Jags, and Jacksonville has a pretty good run defense, so Ryan will get every opportunity to pass for a nice fantasy point total in this game. That alone is worth GPP consideration, but don’t get your hopes up given Ryan’s track record this year.
Running Game: The Jaguars started off the season with a very strong run defense that was obscured from fantasy player’s view thanks to a couple of multi-touchdown games allowed to short-yardage backs. However, things have started to balance out a little, and Jacksonville has started to drift back toward the average on run defense (mainly thanks to a couple of decent rushing performances from the Titans). Devonta Freeman (FD $8,400, DK $7,500) is still priced like the player who was scoring multiple touchdowns every week for a month earlier this season, but he’s failed to do much since then, being held under 47 yards rushing in his last four games and mainly gaining value as a receiver over that span. The Falcons are underdogs in this game, but it should be competitive, and Freeman should get 15 carries in addition to his work as a receiver. The Jaguars are sub par at defending backs out of the backfield in the passing game, and have given up some solid performances via the air to RBs. That means you can consider Freeman for tournaments, but his median projection doesn’t justify his price tag for cash games.
Pass Catchers: I probably don’t need to spell this out, but Julio Jones (FD $8,600, DK $8,500) is the top wide receiving option for the Falcons, and against such a poor pass defense, that should put him on your radar this weekend. Jones has seen his volume fluctuate through the season, but when the Falcons are moving the ball through the air, he is one of three primary targets, and definitely the most talented and capable of a big game of the three. The other two are the aforementioned Freeman and Jacob Tamme (FD $5,100, DK $3,300), who has very inconsistent volume, but occasionally gets his shot as a big player in the offense and does fairly well with the opportunity. The Jags are a bottom-five defense against tight ends (in terms of DVOA and points allowed), so if Tamme were to re-emerge in a matchup in the near future, this would be it. Roddy White (FD $5,400, DK $3,200) seems to be working his way back into the offense, but he’s yet to do much, and should be seen as a risky option at best.
The Takeaway: Typically a matchup with Jacksonville is appealing for fantasy purposes, but the Falcons have been struggling as of late, and the Jags are heading in the other direction. Matt Ryan holds GPP potential, and Julio Jones is a strong tourney target, but the other key figures in the Atlanta offense are speculative plays at best.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: I am not sure why Blake Bortles (FD $7,900, DK $6,100) is priced so close to Matt Ryan on some sites, because the Jacksonville quarterback is an elite fantasy option, especially when compared to his counterpart in this game. Bortles has nine total touchdowns in his last two games, and has been held under two total touchdowns only three times this year. He chips in with some rushing yards nearly every week to boost his floor, and has huge upside in a passing game that’s full of weapons and potential. The Falcons have a pretty poor pass defense, which is odd considering the fact that they have one of the league’s best corners, but the rest of the talent dedicated to stopping the pass for the Dirty Birds can be deemed as suboptimal. The fantasy points haven’t been there for opposing quarterbacks all season against Atlanta, but they’ve also had a fairly easy schedule. I expect Bortles to throw for 300 yards and score three touchdowns, and he’s one of my top options on this weekend slate at QB.
Running Game: Denard Robinson (FD $6,300, DK $4,600) is in line to get a bulk of the running back action for the Jaguars this week with injuries to T.J. Yeldon and Toby Gerhart leaving Jacksonville thin at the position. If Yeldon plays, I don’t think either back is a strong option, but Robinson will face an Atlanta defense that ranks 24th against the run according to DVOA, and second in fantasy points allowed to running backs. In the past four weeks, running backs have scored five times against Atlanta, and three backs have gone over 70 yards rushing over that span. If Robinson rushes for 70 yards, scores, and catches a couple of passes, he’ll make his fantasy owners very happy.
Pass Catchers: Despite having one of the league’s best corners, the Falcons do not shadow top receivers, and both Allen Robinson (FD $8,100, DK $7,600) and Allen Hurns (FD $7,000, DK $5,600) will see snaps against Desmond Trufant at some point on Sunday. This isn’t enough to scare me away from either one, as the two are the lead options in the passing game and deserving of consideration every week. Robinson has the higher potential volume, and the higher price, so I think this is virtually a coin flip. The Falcons have given up eight touchdowns to tight ends this season, which brings Julius Thomas (FD $6,200, DK $4,700) into play. He’s finally healthy and has worked his way into the offense for Jacksonville, and has scored in four straight contests. He’s a top play at his position, especially on DraftKings, where his price is very appealing.
The Takeaway: The Jaguars should have no problems scoring 3-4 touchdowns in this game against a flailing Falcons squad. Blake Bortles is a top play, and if he’s the only healthy running back, Denard Robinson is a very strong RB option. Robinson, Hurns and Thomas are all tournament options in stacks with Bortles, or on their own (especially in the case of Thomas).