NFL Grind Down: Week 8 - Page Four
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos
| Green Bay Packers | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Sunday – 8:30 p.m. | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -3 | 45.5 | 24.25 | 3 | 45.5 | 21.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.3 | 5 | 24 | 12 | Offense | 23.2 | 14 | 22 | 30 | |
| Opp. Defense | 17.0 | 2 | 3 | 4 | Opp. Defense | 16.8 | 1 | 16 | 22 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver Broncos | 1 | 17 | 2 | 11 | Green Bay Packers | 15 | 11 | 7 | 21 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Cobb | 47 | 30 | 4 | 362 | Thomas | 75 | 48 | 1 | 527 | |
| Adams | 15 | 9 | 0 | 92 | Sanders | 65 | 38 | 3 | 527 | |
| Jones | 29 | 21 | 6 | 424 | Norwood | 18 | 11 | 0 | 80 | |
| Rodgers | 30 | 21 | 2 | 200 | Daniels | 29 | 14 | 2 | 85 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ty Montgomery, James Starks, Davante Adams (GB, Questionable), Emmanuel Sanders (DEN, Questionable)
GB Matchup Rating: 4.5
DEN Matchup Rating: 2.5
Green Bay Packers
Quarterback: This game is by far the toughest to figure out, as the high-powered, incredibly talented Packers offense faces the lockdown, incredibly talented Denver defense. Josh McCown is the only quarterback to throw for multiple touchdowns against the Broncos this year, and Matthew Stafford and Teddy Bridgewater were the only passers to go over 250 yards. Opposing signal callers have tossed nine interceptions to only five touchdowns against Denver on the year. But Aaron Rodgers (FD $9,000, DK $7,500) is arguably the best quarterback of this generation, and one of the best of all time. He had a respectable game against the tough Seattle defense in Week 2, and has really only been slowed down by game flow this season, not by an opposing defense. I don’t think you can totally ignore Rodgers this weekend, but he’s not a cash game option as he normally would be in this very tough matchup.
Running Game: Denver has a great run defense as well as pass defense, ranking sixth in DVOA against the run and first in numberFire’s run defense rankings. And with preferred Green Bay back James Starks (FD $5,800, DK $4,300) hurting, I don’t see this game setting up particularly well for him or for Eddie Lacy (FD $6,700, DK $6,200). If Starks gets a clean bill of health, I think there’s an outside shot he succeeds in this matchup, but even then, his workload is speculative and this running game is one to simply avoid.
Pass Catchers: Randall Cobb (FD $7,600, DK $7,000) has followed up his three-touchdown performance in Week 3 with three straight letdown games for daily fantasy players, and this week’s game against Denver doesn’t set up as a bounce back type of situation. All of Denver’s corners (Talib, Harris and Roby) are playing at an elite level this season, so it’s not as if by moving inside, Cobb gains some kind of advantage. Even if you think Rodgers does well in this game, I find it impossible to pick a receiver to trust, as the Green Bay passing offense will run through whoever can get open and break a big play. That could be Cobb, but at his price, I’m not seeing a lot of value to be had relative to his expectations against this great defense.
The Takeaway: It feels really tough to not recommend any Packers as cash game plays, but against Denver, I would totally avoid this offense in those contests. Aaron Rodgers and company are definitely in play in tournaments, but the Denver defense is fantastic, and should limit what the Packers are able to do.
Denver Broncos
Quarterback: Peyton Manning (FD $7,600, DK $6,400) has seen his daily fantasy prices drop to unprecedented levels, and I’m still not sure they’re low enough given his production this season. Games against Detroit and Kansas City returned multiple touchdowns, but every other game has seen Manning throw for one touchdown or no touchdowns, with eight interceptions in those four games. He is not the Peyton Manning you remember from even a year ago, as his passes just simply don’t have the zip he expects them to have, and he’s unable to complete the same timing routes that earned him a living since the late 90’s. The Packers are a tough pass defense, ranking fifth in DVOA against opponents’ throws, so I’ll just pass on Manning altogether and focus my attention on better spots for fantasy success this weekend.
Running Game: Ronnie Hillman (FD $6,100, DK $4,600) has nearly twice as many rushing yards on one fewer carry than his fellow running back C.J. Anderson (FD $6,300, DK $4,300), which means Hillman should (and likely will) lead the way for the Denver offense in this one. Teams don’t often get to run against the Packers due to game flow concerns, but when they do, they’ve found success. Todd Gurley had 159 rushing yards, and Matt Forte had 141. Those are the only two backs to carry the ball more than 15 times against this defense this year, so you can largely throw out other statistics regarding the run against the Packer defense. There’s just not enough of a sample size available when teams like the 49ers call for backs to run only nine times in a matchup with Green Bay. I think the Broncos keep this game competitive, and Hillman gets 15-20 touches, and should get close to 100 yards on those touches. If he scores, he’ll be a low-owned way to set yourself apart in tournaments. If he doesn’t score, he’ll still be close to paying off his reasonable price tag and is a rare source of value at RB this weekend.
Pass Catchers: I don’t trust Peyton Manning this weekend, and by association, I don’t trust his receivers. Emmanuel Sanders (FD $7,800, DK $7,500) has been the better player this season when compared to Demaryius Thomas (FD $8,100, DK $7,700), and he maintains a lower price all the same. So if you’re going to pick a Denver wideout, it should be Sanders. I just don’t think that’s necessary this weekend.
The Takeaway: Ronnie Hillman is a very sneaky play that I would consider in cash games and love in tournaments, but otherwise, I don’t see a lot to like on this Denver offense, especially with the receivers priced as if 2013 Peyton Manning is still under center.
Indianapolis Colts at Carolina Panthers
| Indianapolis Colts | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Monday – 8:30 p.m. | Bank of America Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 46.5 | 19.75 | -7 | 46.5 | 26.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 21.0 | 23 | 9 | 24 | Offense | 27.0 | 6 | 31 | 5 | |
| Opp. Defense | 18.3 | 6 | 9 | 18 | Opp. Defense | 24.9 | 20 | 28 | 23 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Carolina Panthers | 4 | 26 | 3 | 14 | Indianapolis Colts | 20 | 25 | 29 | 24 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Hilton | 74 | 37 | 3 | 606 | Brown | 18 | 11 | 1 | 160 | |
| Johnson | 37 | 20 | 2 | 207 | Ginn | 37 | 18 | 3 | 326 | |
| Moncrief | 55 | 34 | 5 | 381 | Funchess | 20 | 6 | 0 | 82 | |
| Fleener | 33 | 22 | 1 | 215 | Olsen | 50 | 27 | 3 | 439 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Phillip Dorsett (IND, Out)
IND Matchup Rating: 3.5
CAR Matchup Rating: 7.0
Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback: I would hesitate to say that Andrew Luck (FD $8,800, DK $7,400) is “back,” but he has certainly found his scoring form over the past two games. Since coming back from injury, he’s still been a bit careless with the ball, but has thrown for six touchdowns and over 600 yards while also running for over 60 yards in two games. But this weekend he’ll face the league’s second-best pass defense according to numberFire and Football Outsiders. Carolina has only allowed more than one passing touchdown once this season, and that was to Jameis Winston, who they also intercepted four times in a two-touchdown victory. Russell Wilson was held to a mediocre performance against the Panthers, but they haven’t faced any other passers on Luck’s level this year. I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt in a tournament lineup or two, but with a Vegas total under 20 and facing a very tough matchup, he doesn’t belong in your cash game lineups.
Running Game: The Panthers are easier to beat on the ground, where Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray combined for over 160 rushing yards last week, and Doug Martin and Charles Sims combined for nearly 200 total yards in Week 4. But who can we trust from the Indy backfield? Frank Gore (FD $6,700, DK $4,800) saw only nine carries in his last outing, yet had 22 two games earlier. Ahmad Bradshaw (FD $5,000, DK $3,000) hasn’t been fully integrated into the offense yet, and none of the other backs hold fantasy appeal. Gore is the only one you can have any small amount of confidence in, so he’ll be in a couple of tournament lineups this weekend. Otherwise, I’m going to have to pass on an otherwise appealing situation.
Pass Catchers: Both T.Y. Hilton (FD $7,700, DK $6,900) and Donte Moncrief (FD $6,400, DK $5,500) will likely spend time with Josh Norman on the other side of the ball from them, as the talented Carolina corner rarely ventures into the slot, where Hilton goes for over one-third of his snaps (per PFF). That lowers the upside of both players for me, but since neither is likely to see the full shadow treatment, they both still have potential on their snaps when Norman isn’t in coverage. The other defensive backs for Carolina are much more manageable, and if I had to bet on one receiver, it would be Moncrief.
The Takeaway: If the Colts had a more reliable running game, those players would hold a lot of appeal in this matchup, but otherwise, I’m going to roll out the passing game options in a couple of GPP contests, but otherwise I’ll aim for better situations in other games this weekend.
Carolina Panthers
Quarterback: You will see a lot of talk about Cam Newton (FD $8,000, DK $6,800) from different experts and analysts this weekend. He’s going to be relatively popular this weekend. And I’m fully on board. Cam’s potential goes through the roof when he’s allowed to run the football, and with four rushing touchdowns in his last five games, he’s clearly the team’s goal line threat both with his arm and legs. He has three games with ten or more carries this year, and if he gets that kind of volume against this weak Indianapolis run defense, he could pick up 70 yards and a touchdown from rushing alone, which would boost his floor in a really nice way for both cash games and tournaments. The Colts have allowed a few multi-touchdown games to opposing passers this season, as well, and rank 21st in DVOA against the pass despite what seems like a decent DvP ranking of 22nd in points allowed. There’s upside for 300 yards passing with two touchdowns and another 70 rushing with a score on the ground for Cam in this one, and that would be GPP-winning scoring from the Carolina quarterback. He is a core play in any format this weekend.
Running Game: Jonathan Stewart (FD $6,600, DK $4,100) has been coming on strong lately with 20+ carries in each of his last two games, and over 200 yards and two scores in those combined outings. He has the most red zone carries on the team (although Mike Tolbert and Cam Newton both take away opportunities in this area from him), and should see a healthy amount of volume against a defense that has allowed the fifth-most points to opposing backs. Newton and Tolbert limit his upside, but he has a floor of 8-10 points from rushing yards alone. If you think he scores, he’s a fine play this weekend. I am not confident he’ll find the end zone, so I’ll be limiting my exposure.
Pass Catchers: With so few options at the top of the pile at tight end this weekend, Greg Olsen (FD $6,400, DK $6,500) has become the go-to play thanks to his volume and a plus matchup with the Colts. Indianapolis has allowed the 11th-most points to tight ends this year and rank 23rd in DVOA against the position defensively. Olsen’s volume is a bit of a roller coaster, and with the possibility of an easy win for Carolina, I won’t be using him in cash games. He is definitely viable in tournaments, though. Ted Ginn (FD $5,300, DK $3,400) will likely see the most of top corner Vontae Davis (he lines up most often on the left, which is where Davis plays, according to PFF), and none of the other wideouts hold any appeal for me in daily fantasy formats.
The Takeaway: Cam Newton is a top play this weekend, but because he gets his points by being a runner and a passer, it limits the upside of the other players on the offense. Stewart and Olsen are decent tournament plays, and the other receivers and backs would be very speculative tournament fliers.