NFL H2H vs. GPP Picks: Week 6

In daily fantasy football, there are two main types of playing formats; head-to-head games (including 50/50 and double-up formats, in which half of the entries win and half of the entries are left wondering what went wrong) and large field guaranteed prize pool tournaments (GPPs), in which between 10-20% of the field is paid out.

In this article, we will utilize the FanDuel Week 6 NFL contest period, beginning with Sunday’s 1 PM ET games and continuing through the Monday Night Football game with the New York Giants visiting the Philadelphia Eagles.

Please note the Dallas Cowboys, Oakland Raiders, St. Louis Rams and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are on a bye this week.

Looking through the lens of the FanDuel pricing and scoring system, we will key in on players suited for both H2H and GPP game formats.

Head-to-Head/50/50/Double-up Format

When constructing a H2H roster, the important thing to remember is that you want construct a team that has the highest projected “floor” with regards to projected scoring production. The reasoning behind this is simple, you just need to be better than half of the field. Whether it is mano-a-mano or a whole crowd, the top half are victorious and the others are looking ahead to next week.

For this reason, we will want to focus on players that have the highest projected points per salary cap dollar. The key word to remember is probable. In today’s NFL, just about any offensive player could have a three-TD day, or they may not see the end zone for a month.

As a general rule of thumb, in this format on FanDuel you will need to score about 120 points in order to put your team in a good position to win. Sometimes you will win with less points, other times you will lose with a much higher score, but that is a reasonable target figure.

With an overall in-game salary cap on FanDuel of $60,000, this means we need our players to score 2 points for each $1k of
salary. The roster format includes 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 K and 1 D/ST.

Now for the fun part, let’s look at a few players at each position that should be able to “return value” on their FanDuel in-game salary. These will be players that I will be using myself on various iterations of my FanDuel H2H lineups this week.

Quarterback

Picking a QB depends on the style that best suits your team-building preference and risk-reward potential. One school of thought focuses on anchoring your roster with a premium guy like Tom Brady or Andrew Luck; another way to approach a week may be with a mid-tier QB who has a great matchup, or perhaps even someone who has come into the starting job after that week’s pricing was already created. The key thing to keep in mind though is that we need to find a production ratio of 2pts/$1k of salary.

Tom Brady – NE at IND – $9,000: Brady is once again the top option for H2H games if you are going to be spending at the quarterback position. Through four games he has just shy of 1,400 passing yards, 11 aerial scores and a rushing touchdown to boot. Oh yeah, wasn’t there some sort of kerfuffle with air pressure or something in that game against the Colts last postseason? Brady is coming to play for sure in this one.

carson palmer

Carson PalmerARI at PIT – $8,000: The Arizona Cardinals prudently pulled Palmer when the game was in hand against Detroit last Sunday and he was an efficient 11-of-14 with 161 passing yards and three touchdowns. Word is that he may begin wearing a heavier brace to protect his knee, however that is just precautionary. The Steelers have a lot of injuries on defense and they are getting by on reputation alone in the fantasy world at this point in time.

Running Back

While QBs are a very important building block for a solid fantasy roster, RBs are absolutely crucial. Running backs have the volume and opportunity to earn points with touchdowns, rushing and passing yards, AND receptions; this usually makes them the steadiest source of daily fantasy production.

Generally it is wise to “pay up” for a premium RB in a good matchup by utilizing your savings from another position such as defense and kicker, which will be addressed in short order.

Le’Veon BellPIT vs ARI – $9,000: In general, Arizona has been solid against the run, allowing the tenth-fewest fantasy point to running backs. On the flipside, they are allowing 7.6 catches per game out of the backfield, and as we saw at the end of Monday Night Football, Coach Mike Tomlin is going all in with Bell until QB Ben Roethlisberger returns from injury.

Adrian PetersonMIN vs KC – $8,900: Like with Bell, Adrian Peterson is going to be the focal point of the Vikings offense yet again this season. With the Chiefs losing RB Jamaal Charles, they may find offense tough to come by, which will allow Minnesota to control the clock and work the ground game. That will give AP the opportunity to pile up the points.

Wide Receiver

There are always great WR options at varying price levels and matchups. Typically what you do at the other positions will dictate how you assemble your receiving corps.

Top Shelf Options – DeAndre HopkinsHOU at JAX – $8,500: With 74 targets on the season through five games, I have no issues making Hopkins a priority building block in my H2H games. Even with a half point per reception, he is still averaging just shy of 20 FanDuel points per game.

Mid-Tier Choices – Larry FitzgeraldARI at PIT – $7,500: Fitz was solid with 14.3 fantasy points against the Lions in a game that was in the bag early. He leads all starting wide receivers at 20.1 FanDuel points per game and his price is very fair.

Bargain Bin Ballers – Anquan Boldin – SF vs BAL – $6,500: Boldin has become the security blanket for QB Colin Kaepernick and he gets a great matchup against his former team, as the Baltimore Ravens are coming out to the City by the Bay. The Ravens defense has been allowing 16.8 receptions, 220 yards and 1.4 touchdowns per game to opposing wide receivers this season. Enjoy! Jamison CrowderWAS at NYJ – $5,500: This is a steal for Crowder, who has seen the most targets of any Washington receiver over the past two games; over the past three he is averaging double-digit FanDuel points. He will be a mainstay on my rosters, as I plan on allocating most of my cap towards the top backfield options this week.

Tight End

rob gronkowski

Rob Gronkowski – NE at IND – $8,200: Gronk is once more the clear top option, though with the spendy plays at running back, going this route will force you into a discounted quarterback option. There is absolutely nothing wrong with that strategy.

Antonio Gates – SD at GB – $5,500: Back from his four-game PED suspension, Gates had a fine game on Monday Night Football with nine receptions, 92 yards and two touchdowns. He will be very popular, and until his price increases, he is a fine option with the Chargers relying so heavily on the pass.

Zach Ertz – $5,000 and Brent Celek – $4,700: If you are looking for a punt option, these Eagles teammates are in play against the NY Giants, who are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season.

Kicker

Kickers are very tricky to project, so I typically look for the lowest-priced kicker in a decent matchup, ideally in a dome or a fair weather stadium.

Robbie GouldCHI at DET – $4,500: A minimum priced kicker, in a dome, who has put up 13+ FanDuel points in three of the last four weeks. I am in!

Josh BrownNYG at PHI – $4,700: For the late game set, I am fine with taking Brown, who is playing on Monday Night Football in Philadelphia.

Defense / Special Teams (D/ST)

D/ST is another position that is very hard to predict because so much of their value comes from return touchdowns. The best teams will have 10 return scores on the season and the worst around four, which makes it tough to know which team to roster.
There are decent D/ST options at very manageable price points this weekend. The New York Jets – $4,800 vs WAS are in a solid matchup against the limited Washington offense. The Denver Broncos – $5,000 at CLE are on the road again, but against another offensively challenged team. Lastly, if you just want the cheapest D/ST with the best matchup, the Detroit Lions – $4,300 vs CHI are in consideration, as they are averaging 10.8 FanDuel points per game this season.

Editor’s Note: Tune into GrindersLive for NFL First Look, presented by RotoGrinders every Wednesday at 8 PM ET, to see Eric “EMac” MacPherson, Paul “BoggsLite” Errington and Bryce “3rdDFS” Mauro discuss their daily fantasy football strategies each week. Here’s the link!

Large Field Tournaments – Guaranteed Prize Pools (GPPs)

Depending on the contest, GPPs will generally pay out 10-20% of the field. It will take an outstanding score in order to finish in the money, so your mentality needs to be that you want to be in the top 10% or finish last. Being middle of the pack or even above average does not come with any reward, so don’t be afraid to take a few risks and stray from the herd.

Quarterback

andy dalton

Andy DaltonCIN at BUF – $7,600: Typically I don’t take quarterbacks when they travel into Ralph Wilson Stadium, however, the Buffalo Bills are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points in the league to opposing quarterbacks this season. We are still in line for nice weather, and even if there are wind issues, Dalton can check down to TE Tyler Eifert, who already has five touchdowns this season, or RB Giovani Bernard.

Eli ManningNYG at PHI – $7,800: Oh Eli, you trickster you! Every year you are one of the most difficult quarterbacks to peg on a weekly basis. Each of the last five seasons you have had at least one game with 400+ passing yards. I can’t quit you, but I will relegate you to tournament-only status.

Running Back

Shane VereenNYG at PHI – $5,600: The Giants defense is horrible and I don’t think they will be able to do much to slow down the Eagles, so this means they are going to be in passing mode from the jump. Last week against the 49ers, Vereen had eight receptions for 86 yards and a touchdown. With the NY receivers banged up, he may get a similar number of opportunities on Monday Night Football.

Duke JohnsonCLE vs DEN – $5,900: As long as Johnson doesn’t have to stay in and block, it seems like he may be one of the few ways that Cleveland will be able to move the ball against the Broncos defense. Denver is actually allowing 8.6 receptions per game to running backs, the second-highest figure in the league this season. Coupling that with the 25 targets and 21 receptions that Johnson has over the last three weeks and we have a nice discounted dart throw that will enable us to lock in some premium talent at other positions.

Wide Receiver

Generally in a GPP it is a good idea to pair a receiver with your QB so you can double up on your points if they connect for a score or two. Remember you want to go big or go home in this format.

brandon marshall

Brandon MarshallNYJ vs WAS – $8,000: Washington has a solid run defense and teams have been forced to take to the air to move the ball against them. While I would only use him in tournaments, I have no issues rolling with him or teammate Eric Decker – $6,100, who can be had at a substantial discount.

Jordan MatthewsPHI vs NYG – $6,600: Three straight weeks of single-digit points will have everyone looking elsewhere. Matthews is going to have a two-touchdown game at some point. Why not against the Giants, who are allowing just over 300 passing yards per game this season?

Tight End

Tyler EifertCIN at BUF – $6,000: I like the idea of pairing Eifert with QB Andy Dalton. After tallying five touchdowns already this season, which includes two multi-TD games, Eifert will be a very popular option at this price point and we will likely seem him on around 25-30% of all tournament entries. Sometimes it pays to follow the crowd, and I think this is one of those times.

Kickers and Defense / Special Teams

Generally I will utilize the same handful of cheap kickers and DSTs across my H2H and GPP lineups because of their inherent boom/bust nature.

Feel free to send questions via Twitter: @EmacDFS

Good luck gamers!

About the Author

  • Emac (emac)

  • Emac won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. You can check out his ESPN Fantasy Experience here. Emac finished in the top ten for the DraftKings inaugural $1,000,000 Chase for the Crown promotion and also won the first ever MLB King’s Crown ($5k top prize) on DailyJoust.

Comments

  • nemo23

  • ryangeraets

    Would a Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins be a good stack this week for H2H’s?

  • emac

    @luckyfin21 said...

    Thoughts on Devonta Freeman?

    He plays on Thursday night and depending on his status in practice today, he very well could be a game time decision.

    If he starts, I suspect he will be reasonably effective, though at this time I am not forcing him into any of my lineups.

    EMac

    I should add that I am off of Julio Jones completely as he is officially in dinged up mode and likely will be for most of the season ahead.

  • emac

    @ryangeraets said...

    Would a Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins be a good stack this week for H2H’s?

    Hoyer would allow you to upgrade both RB positions if that is the route you want to go, I have no issues at all with that strategy. Hoyer is probably the lowest priced FanDuel QB I would consider in H2H games….unless I wanted to accept more risk and go with Kirk Cousins, though he has a tougher matchup against the Jets than Hoyer does against the Jags.

    EMac

  • ryangeraets

    Thanks!

  • maxpowers50

    Do you have any interest in Eddie Lacy at all?

  • emac

    @maxpowers50 said...

    Do you have any interest in Eddie Lacy at all?

    None what so ever. Now, that said he did start off very sluggish last year but did finish strong so you have to be willing and open to consider change.

    Heck, I have for the most part been off Devonta Freeman, yet my best three tournament finishes the last three weeks have all had him as the common denominator.

    We are making educated guesses at best and have to hope our analytical process is solid enough to weed out some of our biases.

    EMac

  • mball1297

    I disagree that Brandon Marshall is a tournament option. I think he’s a good H2H option. You know the targets are going to be there, his QB is good enough to make those targets matter, and he’s still a very good receiver. The matchup also isn’t bad, especially since, as you point out, they’ll have to throw it.

  • Motovin

    @emac said...

    None what so ever. Now, that said he did start off very sluggish last year but did finish strong so you have to be willing and open to consider change.

    Heck, I have for the most part been off Devonta Freeman, yet my best three tournament finishes the last three weeks have all had him as the common denominator.

    We are making educated guesses at best and have to hope our analytical process is solid enough to weed out some of our biases.

    EMac

    I think in a GPP lineup he’s worth a shot. He’s been god awful so far this year but this game looks like one where he can have a solid game, and also I think this week is going to be his lowest ownership % all year.

  • Motovin

    Also, Ivory and Lewis are at the same price so no one is going to be on his. I’m thinking I just may pivot to Lacy now.

  • emac

    @mball1297 said...

    I disagree that Brandon Marshall is a tournament option. I think he’s a good H2H option. You know the targets are going to be there, his QB is good enough to make those targets matter, and he’s still a very good receiver. The matchup also isn’t bad, especially since, as you point out, they’ll have to throw it.

    That is a fine plan mball. It all depends on the tolerance for risk…heck, I have Shane Vereen in a set of my FD H2H games, but it was the only way I could get Brady, Hopkins, Gronk and a top RB :)

    EMac

  • emac

    @Motovin said...

    Also, Ivory and Lewis are at the same price so no one is going to be on his. I’m thinking I just may pivot to Lacy now.

    That is a good way to logic yourself into a nice low usage % away from the field with a player you believe in!

    Well played!

    EMac

  • Johnny1975

    Thoughts on Dion Lewis week 6?

  • bookersnookers

    @ryangeraets said...

    Would a Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins be a good stack this week for H2H’s?

    I like Hoyer for 1pm matchups

    *emac my Gmen defense is not awful. Our corners are grading out as top ten and we can stop the run. However we were missing 3 players in the san fran game (and beason came out of the game as usually) and have the WORST pass rush and if any NFL qb has time to through you will be successful.

  • bookersnookers

    @ryangeraets said...

    Would a Brian Hoyer and DeAndre Hopkins be a good stack this week for H2H’s?

    I like Hoyer for 1pm matchups

    *emac my Gmen defense is not awful. Our corners are grading out as top ten and we can stop the run. However we were missing 3 players in the san fran game (and beason came out of the game as usually) and have the WORST pass rush and if any NFL qb has time to through you will be successful.

  • notime4luvdrjones

    Except everybody is saying the exact same thing.
    Regarding Dion Lewis and Ivory in the same price point. Sorry, forgot to quote previous post.

  • royalman17

    I think Edelman is a must own on H2Hs over Gronk or do you think it is the other way around? Should we ever consider having them both for H2H?

  • jholliman

    @royalman17 said...

    I think Edelman is a must own on H2Hs over Gronk or do you think it is the other way around? Should we ever consider having them both for H2H?

    I think this is the week where you quintuple stack Patriots players in cash and tournaments.

    • half joking *
  • emac

    @Johnny1975 said...

    Thoughts on Dion Lewis week 6?

    All the Patriots are in play, however, there is no one player that I am willing to go all in with.

    Brady – top H2H QB, but there are plenty of scenarios where he just baaaaarely gets 20 fantasy points.

    Gronk – Smash or crash this week? I think the former, but there are a lot of Pats with good matchups…we really need Indy to score some points.

    Edelman – PPR beast, better on DK…probably a top five WR this week.

    Lewis – fairly priced…if the Fightin’ Belichicks are up…will they turn to Blount?

    Blount – GPP only, but we could see him get 100+ and 2 TDs in the second half if New England is imposing their will.

  • emac

    @bookersnookers said...

    *emac my Gmen defense is not awful. Our corners are grading out as top ten and we can stop the run. However we were missing 3 players in the san fran game (and beason came out of the game as usually) and have the WORST pass rush and if any NFL qb has time to through you will be successful.

    Hmmmmm, this is where it is good to have someone who watches the games and follows the team contribute; where I am more looking at numbers like the G-Men allowing 300 passing yards per game, being outscored 61-26 in two games last season (yes, lots of new personnel on the Eagles side this season) and the injuries the Giants have suffered on the defensive side.

    I am still going to pick on the G’ints, but I have definitely been wrong before.

    EMac

  • emac

    I don’t think I would do both myself, but I do understand the appeal (H2H).

    Most of my roster building will happen on Saturday night, but at the moment I don’t have any full slate contests where I have more than two Patriots…that very well may change though as I try to work in other players.

    EMac

  • emac

    @jholliman said...

    I think this is the week where you quintuple stack Patriots players in cash and tournaments.

    • half joking *

    You wouldn’t be alone Holliman!

  • njsum

    royalman17..and jholliman….I mentioned this last week in the comments section of Adam Levitan’s Chalk Talk article and people were telling me not to do that in cash. Yet they didnt understand how that is an amazing strategy in cash and head to head as it significantly raises your floor unlike any other strategy, without really decreasing your ceiling all that much. So I did it anyway. I stacked Brady, Gronk, Edelman, and Lewis, and was even going to throw Blount in there for insurance, yet i went Gurley who for the same price i thought offered around the same floor with significantly more upside. Even after stacking those guys i was still able to fit forsett, fitzgerald, and Willie Snead, and bucs def in my lineup (draft kings). Needless to say, there wasnt a single double up I didn’t cash in.

    However, I personally see a little more risk in that strategy this week than last as Blount has recently destroyed the colts, so if he’s doing the bulk of the scoring it could put a slight damper on that strategy. Yet even so it should still be effective as long as brady tosses a few as well, which is likely. IMO still a very viable strategy regardless.

    The only real risk with a Pats stack is if they get get shutdown for less than 2 or 3 offensive td’s (depending on how they’re scored), and sure that could happen, yet it’s unlikely. I likened such a scenario to a lower pocket pair cracking pocket aces…maybe 20 percent or so. Do what you want to do with your lineups, they’re your lineups, don’t let people tell you what’s smart and what isn’t, and who’s a “cash” play and who’s “gpp only.” Play a strategy you’re comfortable with and think will win you money. Good Luck

    Emac…thanks for all the good advice throughout all sports, and it’s good to see you agree that the pats stack is a real nice option for cash games.

  • emac

    @njsum said...

    it’s good to see you agree that the pats stack is a real nice option for cash games.

    To be clear, I did say in the other post that I have yet to make a lineup with more than two Patriots in it, though that may change.

    A lot of gamers will be heavy on the Patriots, that is what I meant by not being alone.

    You did a good job of highlighting the biggest risk of all, which is that the Pats only get a couple TDs.

    Heavy team stacks worked well in H2H a couple years ago with Peyton Manning during his magical run, that does seem to potentially be shaping up for New England and Brady/Gronk/Edelman/Lewis this season.

    EMac

  • njsum

    @emac…I missed your previous post about not having more than 2 pats in any linuep so far. Yet I wasn’t saying that you personally were gonna use that strategy. I was just pleased that you recognized it would be popular and a viable strategy, and didn’t poopoo it, as many did when i mentioned last week that’s the route I’d be taking. I’m gonna use some variation of that strategy again this week, yet may have to move off Brady due to the similar options that are priced thousands less on DK. And yes it seems like this is a magical season for the Pats, and the strategy should be viable until the Pats prices go completely through the roof (The price of that stack is actually up over 2k from what it was last week on Dk, so use it while u can…haha). Good Luck!

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler