NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 11, Cowboys at Dolphins
This week’s “Matchup of the Week” is a Sunday afternoon showdown between the Cowboys and the Dolphins. Tony Romo returns for Dallas to face a Miami team that has looked better over the past month under their new head coach. But who will be the fantasy stars in this matchup? Our experts break down the game from every angle.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
So far this season, these have been two of the worst defenses in the NFL – though each defense manages to “not get it done” in different ways.
The Dolphins have a fairly talented defense that has underperformed all year; the Cowboys have a fairly talent-deficient defense that is often hidden by the ball control approach of their offense.
This is probably not “the single best game to target” on the weekend, but it is a very good game to target for fantasy purposes… and it is one that has a lot of iffy components. As such, this is the perfect type of game for us to dig into in a comprehensive manner, as this will enable you to figure out where the fantasy goodness in this game is likeliest to be found.
Finally: If you’ve read any of my other stuff this week, you know I’ve been sick all week, and my mind is not as sharp as normal. As such, please forgive any elements in the writing that are not as clear or easy-to-read as normal. We’ll get through this together…
Let’s start with the Cowboys’ offense.
With Tony Romo back under center this week, this offense is a whole new animal, as defenses will once again have to respect the vertical passing game, and the offense should hum along smoothly at last. Before you jump all over Romo this week, however, I want to point out that Romo – incredibly – threw fewer than 30 pass attempts in all but five games last year. (To put that in perspective: that means Romo threw fewer than 30 pass attempts in 11 games last year; in the last five and a half seasons, Drew Brees has only five such games.) In other words: Romo needs to be incredibly efficient with his opportunities in order to reach value to the same extent as other guys.
Similarly, Dez Bryant hit double-digits in targets just five times last year, and did not hit double-digits in any of his last seven games of 2014. Put simply: the Cowboys know their defense is not all that great… and they try to protect their defense by limiting the number of times they put the ball in the air. While the Cowboys will certainly open things up more with Romo back than they have the last several weeks, 2014 still gives us an idea of the Cowboys’ optimal approach on offense.
Because this is Romo’s first game back, I could see things going either way: I could see the Cowboys playing things safe and easing Romo in and keeping him under 30 passes… or I could see them giving Romo a chance to really spark this team with a 35-attempt game in which he heavily targets Dez. The uncertainty here makes each guy a tournament-only option in my mind (though Dez’s talent and the general lack of appealing places to pay up this week make Dez borderline-justifiable in cash), but while everyone seems to be high on Dez this week, no one seems to be talking about Romo. Each guy could put up a big game for you in tourneys this weekend.
While Jason Witten will also be peppered with targets in this one – benefitting from the return of Romo – his upside is never high enough to appeal to me; you are basically rostering him in the hopes he falls into the end zone for a touchdown.
There is another appealing place to look on this offense, however, and that is Darren McFadden. There are some questions with McFadden’s health at the moment, though the Cowboys seem unconcerned; McFadden should have more room to run this week than he has the last three weeks, as the Dolphins present an easier matchup for a running back than the Seahawks, Eagles, or Bucs, and the defense will have to respect Romo and Dez as well. To date, the Browns are the only team in the NFL facing more total carries than the Dolphins (the Browns have also played one more game than the Dolphins), and the Cowboys will surely follow this blueprint themselves, making McFadden one of the strongest plays on the weekend.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins should be able to keep the ball on the ground in this one, making Lamar Miller a strong play. There is a lot of talk about Jay Ajayi stealing snaps from Miller, but Dan Campbell seems just as set as Joe Philbin was on keeping Miller under 20 total touches each week. Even with Ajayi getting involved, Miller will get his 16 to 18 touches, and he has proven so far that he can be effective when given this type of workload. This should especially be true against a weak Cowboys run defense (27th in Football Outsiders’ Run Defense DVOA), and while the iffy workload makes Miller more of a tournament play for me than a cash game play, I do like him in tournaments a decent amount.
As much as the Dolphins aim to keep Tannehill from having to throw too much, he still has four games this season with 44 or more passes (or four more such games than Romo had all of 2014). With that said, I do not think this will be one such game, as the Cowboys will limit the Dolphins’ plays, and the Dolphins should not have any real need to break free from their balanced attack.
The main place Tannehill is going to look through the air is toward Jarvis Landry in the slot, but Landry will be squaring off with impressive rookie Byron Jones. Jones will not shut down Landry, but he may make life tough enough that Landry’s ceiling is somewhat capped.
The place I am more excited about looking on the Dolphins is toward the outside, where Rishard Matthews will be facing Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne. Each guy has struggled this year, and Matthews has loads of big-play upside in this matchup.
Ultimately, there is not a ton I like in this game in cash… but there is a lot to dig in tourneys.
Guys I like in cash games and tournaments: Darren McFadden, Dez Bryant (borderline for cash)
Guys I like in tournaments only: Tony Romo, Lamar Miller, Rishard Matthews
LeoTPP’s Grind Down
The Odds
As of Thursday evening, the oddsmakers in Las Vegas could not decide on a favorite for this game, with most books offering this as a true “pick ‘em.” Combine that with an over/under of 47.5, and that means this is expected to be a very close game in which both teams score 24 points. There are no 50+ point games on the schedule this week, so a 47.5 total is one of the best we have to work with. And obviously a spread can’t get any closer than zero, so this one should be competitive enough to keep starters involved and motivated until the final whistle.
Matchups by the Numbers
No matter the source, if you use advanced metrics to judge defenses when researching for daily fantasy football, you’ll find that these two teams are among the worst in the league in every facet of the game. According to Football Outsiders, neither team ranks better than 17th in any facet of the defensive game, while the folks at numberFire have a similar set of rankings. These are two below-average defenses with obvious weaknesses that we can target for daily fantasy football.
Passing Game: The one defensive unit ranked as high as 17th is the Dallas pass defense, which both FO and nF deem to be just below average. Combined with the slow tempo of their offense, this leads to a pass defense that has held opposing quarterbacks, wide receivers and tight ends to minimal fantasy production this season. Using FanDuel points per game as a reference, the Cowboys rank 27th, 25th and 25th respectively against those positions this season despite an otherwise below average pass defense. So while it may be possible for passing games to be moderately efficient against Dallas, it is not easy to be productive over the course of a game, as opportunities will be limited.
On the other side of the ball, the Dolphins have a pass defense that ranks 26th according to Football Outsiders, 25th according to numberFire, and 26th in yards per attempt allowed so far this season. Unlike Dallas, this has led to fantasy production, as QBs facing Miami have scored three points more per game than they have against Dallas, while wideouts have fared five points per game better, and tight ends three points per game better. Both teams have faced just over 300 passing attempts on defense this season, yet the Dolphins have allowed eight more touchdowns. Miami’s pass defense is definitely one to target in daily fantasy football.
Running Game: This is a matchup of two of the three easiest teams to score fantasy points against for running backs. Only the Chargers have allowed more FanDuel points per game to opposing backs than the Dolphins, who are hundredths of a point ahead of the Cowboys in third. Running backs have over 1450 total yards from scrimmage against Dallas this season, with ten total touchdowns, while Miami has allowed 12 total scores from backs and just under 1450 total yards from the position. Based on these numbers, we can expect well over 100 total yards from the backs on either side of the ball, with a very high chance of a touchdown or two.
This is echoed in the lack of efficiency from either defense, as Football Outsiders rank the Cowboys 27th in run defense, and the Dolphins 21st. These are among the easiest teams to run against in the NFL, and both teams have capable running backs (pending favorable health news about the Dallas running back situation).
Players to Target
While the running games hold the obvious targets for both teams, there is some value to be found in the passing game. Tony Romo returns from injury this week, and Dallas will want to get him up to speed down the stretch. The NFC East is looking quite mediocre, and Dallas has to feel like they have an outside shot at the playoffs. They can’t mess around and “ease Romo back into the game” and give up a win against a struggling Miami club. The Dolphins have a beatable pass defense, and Dez Bryant and company will be ready for better passes thrown their way from a competent quarterback. Romo is an interesting tournament option against a defense that has allowed three games of three or more passing touchdowns this season, including two to some less-than-stellar names (Hoyer, Taylor). Pairing Romo with Bryant makes the most sense, as the duo are more than capable of a big play. According to Football Outsiders, the Dolphins are dead last in the NFL at stopping number one wideouts for other teams, so Bryant is a great play in any format. His volume isn’t secure, but he won’t need much volume to torch this terrible secondary. No other pass catcher for Dallas is worthy of a spot on more than a cheap GPP roster.
The Miami passing game is risky, as the Cowboys limit fantasy upside without a strong pass defense thanks to their tempo and game plan. However, they are among the worst against opposing WR1 as well (28th according to Football Outsiders), but for the Dolphins, that could mean Rishard Matthews or Jarvis Landry. Jarvis Landry is the team’s best wideout, but he plays in the slot, whereas Matthews is the big play option outside. Julio Jones, Mike Evans and Julian Edelman all had over 120 yards against Dallas this season, while Jordan Matthews has a pair of big games as well. The mix of slot receivers and star outside wideouts makes this even more confusing, and since there won’t be a ton of passes thrown in this game, we can’t confidently say that both will reach value. Either player will be a fine option this week in tournaments, but neither is trustworthy for cash games. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill is too risky even in a good matchup, as he’s been shut out of the end zone in two of his last three games, but he does have plenty of multi-touchdown outings this year, and is never out of contention for a tournament lineup.
As for the running games, the health of Darren McFadden will be worth monitoring as the week goes on. If he’s fit to play, he’s a top option against a poor Miami run defense. Two backs have carried the ball 25 or more times against the Dolphins this year, and those two backs combined for 287 yards on the ground. McFadden is in line for that kind of volume, and should have that kind of success in this game. If he misses out, Rod Smith will likely handle the running down work, and would be very appealing at his bargain price tag.
On the other side of the ball, Lamar Miller remains the lead back for Miami, and while his workload will be capped at about 20 touches, that should be plenty against the Dallas defense.
What Our Experts Are Saying
Notorious’ Expert Pick
Every week, Notorious provides his top plays on FanDuel as a part of our NFL Incentives package. Here’s what he had to say about one of the top options in this matchup.
Lamar Miller – Since Dan Campbell took over as the Dolphins’ coach, Miller has scored at least one touchdown in every game. Miller has always had the talent, but the Dolphins had refused to make him a workhorse back by limiting his touches. That’s no longer a concern, as he has seen at least 19 touches in three of his last five games. Miller should be able to find plenty of holes against a Cowboys’ run defense that is ranked 27th in the NFL, according to Football Outsiders. The Cowboys have also allowed the third-most fantasy points to running backs this season, making Miller a terrific play at a price of only $7,400.
Hoop2410’s Cash Game Play
Every week, top-ranked Hoop2410 lays out his top picks for cash games to help you build a lineup that will win 50/50 and head-to-head contests. You can find this as a part of our FanDuel NFL incentives package.
Dez Bryant – For the first time in many weeks, both Dez Bryant and Tony Romo will be on the field together at the same time. With a healthy Tony Romo, Dez Bryant is clearly a top-five NFL WR, therefore the $8,400 price represents a solid value. In addition to the price tag and improved circumstances (with Romo back), the matchup is pretty solid with the secondary of the Miami Dolphins.