NFL Matchup of the Week: Week 16, Steelers at Ravens
This week, we’ll take a closer look at the divisional battle between Baltimore and Pittsburgh. Who should we be considering for our lineups in Week 16? Find out below.
JMToWin’s Matchup Focus
It’s the day before NFL games begin!
You know what that means, right?
It means this Expanded Game should have been to you yesterday. Apologies for my tardiness – I wrote up most of this on Wednesday and, with the Holidays and all, completely forgot to send it to RotoGrinders.
Oops.
Allow me to correct that mistake by giving you some good thoughts to think on in regards to this game.
The Vegas line tells us that this game is going to be a blowout – and that very likely will end up being the case. The Ravens – as you know – are without Steve Smith, Justin Forsett, and Joe Flacco, and their offense has sputtered accordingly.
In order for us to take pass game components on any given team, however, we generally prefer for there to be the threat of a back-and-forth game. So why do we still like the Steelers’ passing offense?
Three main reasons:
1) Much like Russell Wilson over the last few weeks (pretty much throwing only 30 passes each week, but still finishing as one of the top fantasy quarterbacks each week), the Steelers are an efficient offense. If Roethlisberger only throws the all 35 times, he can still put up one of the top fantasy scores on the weekend, and he can still support a couple receivers on the way to big games as well.
2) The Ravens are a “funnel defense,” as they are strong against the run and very poor against the pass. When a team faces a defense such as this, they tend to take the path of least resistance. Even if the Steelers get out to a big lead in this one, we should see them continue to throw the ball a bit more often than most teams would “with a big lead.”
3) The Steelers are pretty bad themselves at stopping the pass. This generally leads to opponents having success through the air – especially as they fall behind and are forced to pass anyway – which creates the opportunity for the Steelers’ opponent to put up a nice game as well, while also creating a situation where the Steelers are pretty much forced to remain aggressive.
In his last seven starts, Ben Roethlisberger has hit at least 39 pass attempts six times. There is a very good chance he hits that mark (or close to that mark) once again in this one. In spite of some tougher matchups, he has been just as good lately – in a real-life sense – as Russell Wilson and Cam Newton. Although Big Ben will probably end up being the most popular quarterback play on the weekend, I feel he is totally worth it.
Of course, Ben is not the only guy on this offense who will be ridiculously popular. In spite of his borderline ridiculous price tag, Antonio Brown will probably be the place most people start their roster this week, as no one wants to “miss out” on a big game from him, since his “big games” come more frequently than anyone else’s and are more explosive than anyone else’s. And you know what? I cannot come up with a reason why you should stay away from Antonio this week. I’ll be using him myself – in cash games and tourneys – and will be looking to differentiate elsewhere.
Martavis Bryant will end up being popular as well, though probably not popular enough. Martavis is pretty much a lock for at least eight targets, with upside for more, and his explosiveness is such that he can post a monster stat line with that type of work.
Of course, if you are looking to peel away from the pack a bit while still targeting this game, a great way to do so is to look to DeAngelo Williams. Williams is highly-owned each week these days no matter the situation, as his usage in the pass game and his deployment near the goal line are certainly no secret. But he will probably go lower-owned than his “through the air” counterparts, and because of his pass game involvement and the high likelihood that the Steelers are playing with a lead, DeAngelo is also strongly in play.
I do not think that Heath Miller or Markus Wheaton are as strong of plays as some others might assume, as they each have a much tougher matchup this week than Antonio or Martavis, and enough people will try to “be contrarian” by pivoting to these guys that they will probably not end up being contrarian at all. While either guy (Wheaton in particular) could end up having a big game, the floor is too low – in my opinion – to take on such a volatile player with his ownership higher than it really should be.
There is less to like on the Ravens’ side of the ball, but because we are expecting the Steelers to be playing with a lead, and because the Steelers have a poor pass defense, we should aim to figure out how we can take advantage of the “catch up” mode the Ravens will be in. Yes, they may be starting Ryan Mallett at quarterback, but even Ryan Mallett can make his weapons fantasy-relevant in the right spot.
The first place I want to look on this side of the ball is Kamar Aiken. Aiken is the “go-to receiver” on this Ravens offense, and even though that is pretty much the case simply by default, he has still provided a very nice floor in this role, while sometimes showing off a pretty nice ceiling. Aiken could end up posting a line of something like 8-100-1, and considering the price at which you can roster him, this is a very nice deal indeed!
The second place I want to look on this side of the ball is Javorius Allen. “Buck” Allen burned a lot of people last week when he was benched after his early-game fumble, but the Ravens want Allen to succeed a whole lot more than they want Terrance West to succeed. Allen is a pass game monster, and this game sets up perfectly for him to have a huge role through the air. Although you certainly take on a risk by rostering him and assuming his workload will go back to being what it should, Coach Harbaugh said some things early in the week that seemed to indicate that he expects Buck to take over his old role once more. If you roster him, and this ends up being the case, you could end up grabbing a really nice game at very low ownership.
Guys I like in cash games and tourneys: Ben Roethlisberger, DeAngelo Williams, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryant, Kamar Aiken
Guys I like in tourneys only: Javorius Allen
What Our Experts Are Saying
DraftKings Expert Consensus Rankings
Our Expert Consensus Rankings are offered every week, and provide top plays at every position from several top DFS players like Notorious, JMToWin, STLCardinals84 and many others. This week, in the DraftKings rankings, we see Ben Roethlisberger as the #2 ranked QB, behind MVP favorite Cam Newton. JMToWin, Notorious and stevietpfl all have the Steelers quarterback as their top point/$ play at the position for Week 16.
At running back, DeAngelo Williams is highly ranked at #3 overall, while Baltimore’s Javorius Allen makes the list for both JMToWin (#5) and BritDevine (#8).
To no one’s surprise, Antonio Brown is the top dog at wide receiver, and it isn’t even close. Out of the nine experts who ranked, only one (Notorious) didn’t have him as the number one choice. On Baltimore’s side, Kamar Aiken is the most attractive play, and he’s listed eighth among all wideouts for the week. JMToWin (#3) and naapstermaan (#5) are particularly fond of Aiken in Week 16.
FanDuel Projections
According to this week’s FanDuel projections, Roethlisberger (2.72 Pt/$/K) is the third-best point/$ play behind Newton and Blake Bortles, and Williams (2.18 Pt/$/K) can once again be found in the third spot (behind David Johnson and Karlos Williams) when we click over to running backs.
The fantasy goodness continues at wideout, where Antonio Brown (2.33) and Martavis Bryant (2.18) are ranked first and second respectively at the position.
As you can see, there’s going to be quite a bit of fantasy production coming from this game. Check back next week for another edition of Matchup of the Week!