NFL Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 9

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino) Last Updated 2016-11-07 04:11:19

One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions.

Obviously, we want to be very good at understanding what is likely to happen. However, we cannot get so sure of our ability to predict player performance that we forget the true goal of the contest. That goal is to defeat all of our opponents. This article is designed to help you achieve that goal.

Editor’s Note: Predicting ownership can help you gain an even bigger edge on the field. Gain access to Chris Gimino’s FULL Ownership Projections by test driving our Premium content — DraftKings 7 Day Free Trial | FanDuel 7 Day Free Trial

Week 8 in Review

Week 8 Hits

This article was not published last week but I think it’s worth noting the Week 7 accuracy was the best this season at .9267 CORREL value. Week 8 was torpedoed by a monster late swap situation on DraftKings. The value ended up as .8797 as a result, which was not bad considering a very chalky option was scratched and his ownership distributed elsewhere. No excuses though, as we’ll discuss some other misses in the next section. As far as the hits were concerned, I found 5 double digit projections to highlight here. We nailed Jameis Winston, Spencer Ware, and David Johnson. My #1 goal in projecting ownership is to at least identify the chalk if I am not exactly predicting their percentage. We did both in these instances. Jack Doyle and Matt Forte were two other examples of projections with double digits that landed within 1% of actual.

Week 8 Misses

I previously mentioned the Ty Montgomery situation, and that put a real hit to the overall accuracy last week. Davante Adams was the obvious winner of the Ty Montgomery lottery. A closer look at projected vs. actual revealed some other misses too. The most impactful would be underestimating Devontae Booker despite the highest projection I’ve ever given anyone. I don’t mind being wrong here, as we certainly did our job identifying him as the mega-chalk. Jimmy Graham was somehow not as popular despite narrative street. Gary Barnidge ended up as the overwhelming chalk. Cardinals D was a roster construction necessity that I failed to account for. I even noticed myself using them when I was building, and I should have put two and two together there.

Week 9 Analysis

A QUICK NOTE ON OUR OWNERSHIP PROJECTIONS: I use both the standalone Ownership Projection Page and the new and improved Player Projections Page to help me write this article and build lineups each week. I create a projection for every player on the slate each week as a part of our premium content, and I highly encourage you to check it out. See below. All kinds of valuable information is now available FOR FREE on the Player Projection page, and if you subscribe to NFL premium, you can also see my “pOWN%” column for that site and sport.

Quarterback

Aaron Rodgers is the clear chalk in Week 9. He is operating at home and in a game in which vegas projects the Packers to score over 30 pts without the assistance of a traditional run game. The only conceivable situation in which he does not produce is one in which the game is extremely slow and he simply does not get near his projected number of pass attempts. America is not on board with that outcome, and will be rostering Rodgers to the tune of 17-22% in my estimation. The Thursday lock ownership percentages are very much in line with this analysis. Dak Prescott was another Thursday lock darling. Coming off a highly visible performance and facing one of the worst defenses in the league, the public money seems to be on Dak despite minimal touting from the DFS community. There were some experts that expressed interest in Dak but most of the Cowboy love was flowing towards Ezekiel Elliott. With all that being said, I am trusting the strong correlation between Thursday lock data and Sunday own % as a reason to project Dak in the top 4 of QB ownership this weekend. There are enough factors in his favor that allow me to feel comfortable doing so.

My Favorite QB Ownership Value of the Week

I do have some concerns that this projection will be under his actual, but I don’t expect it to matter at all. Quarterback isn’t a position where we usually gain our biggest advantage, and the reasons I am leaning towards Rivers are as follows. Firstly, Rivers is a fine play in a vacuum. The Titan defense ranks much higher in rushing DVOA (9th) than they do passing (24th). I expect that to slightly skew the Charger game plan towards the passing game. Secondly, all the most popular quarterbacks are either substantially more expensive or substantially cheaper than Rivers. That’s a plus for creating a unique construction. Lastly, the wisdom of the crowd is telling us that Rivers is in a strong position with their position on the receiving options. People want to take Antonio Gates. People want to roster Tyrell Williams. Some people might even want to roster Dontrelle Inman. The discrepancy between the projected ownership of the receivers vs. the projected ownership of the QB is higher than usual, and I’ll look to capitalize on this with the hope that Rivers finishes as a top QB.

Running Back

There really isn’t a ton of hard hitting analysis needed here regarding Ezekiel Elliott, but I’ll drop some on you anyway. Cleveland ranks 31st in football outsiders rush DVOA. The Cowboy offensive line is 4th in adjusted line yards, while the Cleveland DST ranks 26th on the defensive side of the ball in adjusted line yards. They allow a power success rate of 71%, and rank 1st in 2nd level yards allowed per carry (yards that come 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage). The Browns have 3 core run defenders that grade out in the lowest category on Pro Football Focus while the Cowboy O-line has 3 players that grade out as high quality. The Cowboys run an abusive pace that sucks the life out of the defense and keeps the opposing offense off of the field. They rank 27th in situation-neutral pace, 2nd in total time of possession, and have stuffed a near league-leading carry load down Zeke’s throat in one fewer games than the three players ahead of him on that list (he only trails the lead by two). The Browns allow the 5th most RB fantasy points per game, and according to numberFire they rank poorly in net expected points on the ground. I actually think I could keep going with more stats that tell you the Browns are about to get flattened, but I think you get the idea by now. Zeke is the mega chalk. He was the mega chalk on Thursday lock, and he’ll be the mega chalk on Sunday.

Charcandrick West is an injury start in place of Spencer Ware. We saw this happen last year and he was approximately 44% in GPPs during the bye weeks. No reason to expect any differently here, as he was fairly highly owned in Thursday lock without the benefit of news that Ware was officially out. The Jaguars are a team reeling from the shock of their own horrific play. Their rush defense ranks 27th in DVOA, and DFS players have taken notice. With high point per dollar projections, and expert touting all throughout the land… West will be one of the highest owned players in Millionaire Maker history.

My Favorite RB Ownership Value of the Week

I already talked about Philip Rivers, so you may be confused why I am also writing up a decently chalky running back from the same team. The story goes something like this: Melvin Gordon is underpriced, coming off of his very best game as a pro (from a real life NFL standpoint), is getting more targets than ever before, and is getting an elite volume of touchdown scoring opportunities. On top of all that, he’ll be at least half of the ownership of the two top options. I think that you can use Gordon and Rivers together or by themselves. Either way, I want to invest in the Chargers at home. They are facing a team that might not have it’s best receiver and their very best player will play through injury (Murray). Their defense is surprisingly strong despite the loss of key defenders like Jason Verrett. I think there is potential for the Chargers to dominate the game, with Rivers and company throwing the team to a lead and staying on the gas as they make a major push for the playoffs. Vegas is giving us the sign of the cross with a 25.5 team total on the Chargers, and I like Melvin Gordon as a sensible pivot (or addition) to Zeke/West teams.

Wide Receiver

Ty Montgomery will return to his role as a versatile running back in Sunday’s contest vs. the hapless Indianapolis Colts defense. The Colts are Football Outsiders 31st ranked unit in overall DVOA, have relatively poor grades across the board. The public and highly experienced DFS players alike are well aware of the situation in GB, and we can expect heavy ownership on a PPR site like DraftKings. Vegas is endorsing this. DFS experts are highly endorsing this. His projected role and matchup are endorsing this. His price and point per dollar projection are endorsing this. Now that we know he’s in for sure, it’s hard to ignore the value he presents and we should expect to see Montgomery in a ton of lineups this weekend. We may even see him grab a smallish own % on FanDuel, where he is RB eligible.

Donte Moncrief is on the other side of that friendly Vegas total in Green Bay. DFS players will look at his QB (Andrew Luck), his role (outside receiver against the 26th ranked unit vs. WR2), and his price tag and immediately get excited to roster him on both sites. The expert community and content sites have largely endorsed Moncrief as a darling play since the summer time. Now that he’s back from injury and playing air guitar in the end zone again after scoring… we shouldn’t be surprised at all to see his ownership percentage creep up into the category of chalk. Thursday lock data supports this scenario, and I’ll bank on the combination of factors playing out as expected with Moncrief in the 24-30% range of ownership.

My Favorite WR Ownership Value of the Week

Kelvin Benjamin might be one of my least favorite players in the league. However, I can’t ignore a few factors that are in his favor this week. Benjamin lines up an awful lot as the left WR. Pretty much half the time according to Pro Football Focus. His opponent at RCB (more often than not) should be Troy Hill (rank 108/112 per PFF). Kelvin Benjamin is 6-5. Troy Hill is 5-11. Yeaaah, we’re going to go ahead and ask you to come in again on Sunday Kelvin. We’re going to need you on our rosters at sub 8% ownership (I’m projecting like 3% right now on DK which may be a bit too low). We haven’t seen him produce in many weeks, and his price has dropped as a result. Cam Newton is still his QB. He still has the role of #1 WR in the offense. Benjamin is in position for a big game but isn’t widely accepted as a top play. Whenever we see situations like this, we should consider investing at a level that is commensurate with our risk tolerance. For me, that means mixing him into my player pool but not going all in. He is on a short list of contrarian plays that can separate us from the field, and I want to be sure I get a piece of him regardless of the outcome.

Tight End

Kyle Rudolph and Antonio Gates top the list of TEs in Week 9. Rudolph is in the flow chart spot. Is he playing the Lions? Yes? Ok, start him. The Lions have allowed a substantial number of TDs to the TE position, and Rudolph is in a prime position to continue the trend. His pricing on both sites is favorable, and he’s being widely touted. The ownership on Thursday agrees with the matchup, experts, and point per dollar expectation. Rudolph will be amongst the chalk in Week 9.

Antonio Gates will line up on Sunday without Hunter Henry there to suction away his opportunity. His BFF Philip Rivers will be looking to inch him closer to the TD record, and DFS players will take notice. His price tag is low on both sites and the TE position is extremely scarce. We’ve seen him mentioned on numerous broadcasts this week and appears in expert consensus rankings all over the map. Thursday lock saw his ownership elevated, and all signs are pointing to him having high ownerhsip this coming Sunday.

My Favorite TE Ownership Value of the Week

TE is an extremely thin position in Week 9, and as a result my recommendation is pretty thin too. That being said, I am pretty comfortable mixing in Travis Kelce if for no other reason than to leverage against massive ownership on Charcandrick West. We can also hang our hats on the fact that Nick Foles will be operating at the QB position and not Alex Smith. I think that Foles will be more inclined to target him down field, and pull the trigger on more tightly covered throws. To say it another way, I think that Kelce has more upside with Foles at the helm. The bottom line is that he has the combination of lower ownership than the top two options, improved upside vs. his previous situation, and status as a leverage play against the field. Those three things make him a viable option at a thin position in tournaments. I don’t love it, but it makes sense.

Defense

The Chiefs will be the highest owned defense this week for a few reasons. They will be paired up often with Charcandrick West as a correlation. The Jaguars most recently were on national television making fools of themselves on offense, and the public no longer trusts Blake Bortles. KC has a reputation of a team with a strong defense, and a quality pass rush. The expert community has them widely rated as a top option. Thursday ownership saw them come out on top. The Chiefs are the defense of the week in cash games, and that will translate to heavy ownership in tournaments.

My Favorite DST Ownership Value of the Week

With so much drama in the LBC, it’s kinda hard being down on the Green Bay D. Everybody wants to get a piece of the Colts, but they are doing it from the wrong side of the football. They should be attacking the atrocious offensive line with the strength of the Green Bay defense which is their pass rush. Andrew Luck is a great QB, but when faced with pressure he is more prone to mistakes. That’s basically true of almost any QB, so when we recognize the potential for a QB under duress we should take notice. To me there is a clear mismatch up front in this game, and the Packer defense could very well be in position to capitalize if the offense gets them the lead. The way vegas see’s it, they are going to have the lead. The way I see it, we should read the tea leaves and roster the Packers D this coming Sunday.