NFL Weekly Grind Down: Week 14 - Page 4
Detroit at Philadelphia
| Detroit Lions | Philadelphia Eagles | |||||||||
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| Sun – 1:00PM ET | Lincoln Financial Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 2.5 | 54 | 25.75 | -2.5 | 54 | 28.25 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 27.2 | 4 | 2 | 16 | Offense | 25.0 | 8 | 9 | 2 | |
| Defense | 23.9 | 18 | 26 | 3 | Defense | 23.4 | 16 | 32 | 19 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Philadelphia | 28 | 17 | 32 | 4 | Detroit | 20 | 3 | 30 | 11 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Johnson | 132 | 12.1 | 12.3 | 10.0 | Jackson | 96 | 7.9 | 5.0 | 6.0 | |
| Burleson | 33 | 6.8 | 5.5 | 1.0 | Cooper | 61 | 5.1 | 6.5 | 6.0 | |
| Durham | 70 | 5.8 | 7.3 | 7.0 | Avant | 63 | 5.3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | |
| Pettigrew | 59 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 2.0 | Celek | 37 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 6.0 | |
Detroit Lions
Detroit heads to Philly in a game where fireworks are fully expected. The O/U is the highest by a long shot this week and one of the higher we’ve seen this late in the season. Usually those over/unders start to dwindle as the weather gets cold, and that weather will again be a concern in this game so monitor that as closely as possible. I’m not a weatherman though so I’m going to make zero effort to predict anything and just focus on this game as if it were being played in a bubble. This looks to be filled with fireworks with Stafford and the passing game having an elite level matchup. A good starting point of your daily fantasy research is always to check the matchup for Calvin Johnson. Last week, the Eagles threw a mix of Bradley Fletcher, Cary Williams and Brandon Boykin at another talented (and tall) wideout in Fitzgerald. Fitz grabbed 5 balls for 72 yards and a score. Michael Floyd was also able to have a strong day on the outside, bringing in 5 catches for 99 yards and a TD. But to find the closest correlation to Megatron, we have to go back to Week 3 against the Broncos, where Demaryius Thomas was able to haul in two scores and 98 receiving yards against this Eagles secondary. This unit has improved greatly since then, allowing just 33 FPPG to opposing WR’s over the last 5 weeks (compared to 42 FPPG average on the year), but they still are vulnerable to a more physical wideout like Johnson.
Here is the only thing I’ll say about the weather. If it’s really bad outside, then Joique Bell is a terrific option. Bush looked horrible in a bad weather game in Pittsburgh and his style of play just isn’t suited for hard-nosed football. Moving on, Bush is also listed as questionable for this one so be very cautious with him although his status should be known before kickoff. In the event he plays, he has a fairly tough matchup against an Eagles front seven that has been improving as the year goes on while learning to switch to the 3-4 scheme under DC Bill Davis. They haven’t allowed a rush touchdown all week but they’re still far from being a front seven that you should avoid targeting players against.
Philadelphia Eagles
Again, the high O/U in this game has to excite you when it comes to targeting Eagles players. Prior to last week vs. Flynn and the Packers on short rest, the Eagles defense had allowed 5 consecutive quarterbacks to post 16 or more fantasy points against them. Nick Foles has also had 20 or more FP in each of his last 4 games played, making him the only QB to accomplish that feat. Foles has been great at spreading out the ball, which is good for the offense and bad for fantasy. Last week, Cooper, Jackson, Ertz and Celek all saw an even 6 targets. Over the last three games, none have seen more than 7 total targets in a game. There are also some concerns with DeSean Jackson right now, as he’s been quiet (for his standards) over the past few games. In that span he’s only reeled in 11 balls for 198 yards and 1 score. Those numbers aren’t bad, but they are indicative of Jackson’s boom or bust nature. And while the Lions secondary has been beatable, over the last two weeks they’ve only allowed 10 total receptions to opposing wideouts.
The McCoy-led rushing attack is up for a serious challenge in this one, as I’m sure Eddie Lacy, Bobby Rainey, Le’Veon Bell and Matt Forte will all attest. Those four RB1’s have COMBINED for just 120 rushing yards over Detroit’s last four games. Even more impressive, Detroit hasn’t allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 4. McCoy is talented, but if you expect him to break down the defensive line of Detroit, you’ll be chasing fools gold. Since Week 5, the most rush yards allowed to a single back by this Lions defense has been a measly 36. The best hope for McCoy this weekend will be in the screen game. Since Week 6, DET has allowed 4 backs to bring in 4 or more receptions for 250 receiving yards and 2 scores.
DET @ PHI – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Matthew Stafford – He’s going to cost you as one of the top 3-4 QBs this week but he remains relevant as a road underdog with a high over/under. That vegas line should always scream to target the underdog QB automatically.
- Calvin Johnson – Another guy who will cost you quite a bit, but he has 100+ receiving yards in each of his last three games and 3 RecTD in that span. Philadelphia is nowhere near good enough to slow him down
- Kris Durham – Burleson showed his age on Thanksgiving while Durham took 92% of snaps and was targeted 7 times. It’s a bit of a toss-up to figure out which of the two will be more heavily featured in this offense but I think the edge goes to Durham on Sunday. He’s min priced on FanDuel at $4.5K and just $4400 on DraftStreet this week, so he could be an intriguing GPP option to pair with the pricy Stafford and Johnson.
- Joique Bell – This is only relevant if the weather is actually really bad or if Reggie Bush can’t go, but Bell has been really good lately even with Bush on the field and gets a huge bump up in either of those scenarios. His price is pretty spread out across the sites, but at $6.3K on DraftStreet and $8.2K on FTD he could be a nice RB punt play in GPPs and he has nice PPR value at $4300 on DraftKings and $5K on DraftDay. Don’t pay up for him on SS though, $10.8K is a little too steep unless Bush can’t go.
- Nick Foles – He’s been the most consistent QB of the last four weeks and his ceiling is still really high. That’s why it surprises me that you can have him for nearly $2K less than the top tier guys like Manning or Brees on every site. I particularly like $9K on FD and $17.7K on DD.
- LeSean McCoy – He’s not going to get you a lot of yards on the ground so he should be out of the equation for cash games in Week 14. He can however pick up good yardage in the receiving game and could be considered for tournaments. I have a lot of concerns about paying up for him in such a tough matchup though, but he’s relatively cheap on DS at just over $11K.
- DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper – I’m leaning towards DJax as the guy to target in this offense, but both are GPP plays only. Foles can stand on his own in H2H or 50/50s but if you want to pair him with both or one in a tournament, you’d be making a smart risk/reward move. Jackson’s price looks deflated at $12K on DD and $7K on DK for nice value there.
- Zach Ertz – Ertz is the last piece to this puzzle and he exploded in Week 13 with two touchdown receptions against the horrid Cardinals defense vs. TE’s. Detroit’s been strong against the TE position so I wouldn’t lean too hard on Ertz other than as a punt TE on certain sites in GPPs. I love the $3689 price point on DraftStreet.
Tennessee at Denver
| Tennessee Titans | Denver Broncos | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:05PM ET | Mile High Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 12 | 49 | 18.5 | -12 | 49 | 30.5 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 22.0 | 21 | 21 | 15 | Offense | 38.7 | 1 | 1 | 13 | |
| Defense | 22.2 | 11 | 7 | 17 | Defense | 26.4 | 26 | 29 | 7 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Denver | 29 | 23 | 24 | 30 | Tennessee | 4 | 30 | 1 | 17 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Wright | 102 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 11.0 | Thomas | 108 | 8.9 | 9.3 | 6.0 | |
| Washington | 76 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 6.0 | Welker | 100 | 8.4 | 7.7 | 5.0 | |
| Hunter | 30 | 2.7 | 4.0 | 5.0 | Decker | 98 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 12.0 | |
| Walker | 65 | 5.4 | 7.0 | 2.0 | Thomas | 62 | 6.2 | 5.0 | ||
Tennessee Titans
Name the quarterback in this game who has 15 or more fantasy points in each of the last four weeks. I’ll give you a hint, it’s not the guy from Denver. That’s right it’s Harvard Grad Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitz has 8 passing touchdowns to go along with 2 rush touchdowns over his last four starts and while traditional football fans might be disappointed by the Titans 1-3 record in that span, daily players should be at least somewhat excited. He’ll matchup up with a Broncos secondary that isn’t particularly impressive, although at times they’re hung out to dry when protecting big leads or when the offense gets on and off the field quickly with a score. The Titans are 10 point underdogs so you can fully expect to see a ton of passing late in this game from Fitzpatrick. Denver has struggled in their secondary more recently than even earlier in the year, and have allowed multi-TD games to the opposing QB in three straight, with two of those opponents being the far-from-dynamic Alex Smith. Fitz has some talented young weapons to work with on Sunday, but he’s really developed rapport with Kendall Wright who now has 39 targets over those last 4 games with Fitz at the helm. In that span, Wright also has no less than 6 catches for 75 yards. The one weapon he’ll be without on Sunday is Delanie Walker, who is unlikely to play with concussion symptoms. That will open the door for Craig Stevens to play more on rushing downs, but it’s Taylor Thompson who is likely to fill in on throwing downs, which may come often if this one gets ugly. Thompson is a former defensive end from SMU who played a fair amount last weekend but dropped both balls thrown his way and didn’t exacly look stellar. Still, he’s incredibly athletic and the talent level is there that he might be worth considering on a strict cap site this weekend.
The run game has actually been fairly consistent for Tennessee and CJ2K has 80+ net yards in each of his last three games with 3 TDs in that span. Last week he was handed the ball 18 times on the ground while 2nd string back Shonn Greene got 10 touches for 32 yards as well. Denver’s allowed 90 or more rush yards to their opponents in five consecutive games and their defensive line is starting to overflow with injuries. Kevin Vickerson was lost for the season in Week 12 and right before the Broncos’ Week 13 matchup with KC, they lost Derek Wolfe for at least a few games. Jamaal Charles was able to rack up 93 yards on just 19 carries and while CJ2K isn’t quite of that caliber, he could still find some running lanes against this front seven.
Denver Broncos
The best news for the Broncos this week is that Julius Thomas is expected to play. He figures to be one of the top-3 tight ends this week with a juicy matchup against a Tennessee team that ranks near the bottom of the NFL against TE’s. 7 opposing TE’s have been able to top 50 receiving yards against the Titans and they’ve also allowed 5 RecTD to the TE position. Orange Julius figures to be a go-to option for Manning this week also because of the secondary that Tennessee brings to the table. The Titans have three corners that rank in the Top-25 in coverage ratings on ProFootballFocus. Alterraun Verner, Jason McCourty and Coty Sensabaugh have all been spectacular this season and this game will pit one of the best passing attacks in the NFL against one of its best secondaries. Here’s my best guess of how the matchups will be broken down, based on where players line up most often. The Broncos will move Decker/Demaryius around but over the last few weeks Demaryius has started the game as the wideout to the left of Peyton with Decker to the right and Welker in the slot.
- Demaryius Thomas (RWR) – Likely to face Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty
- Eric Decker (LWR) – Likely to face Alterraun Verner and Jason McCourty
- Wes Welker (slot receiver) – Likely to face Coty Sensabaugh
As good as this offense is, McCourty and Verner are two of the best in the business on the outside so the typical output expected from Demaryius and Decker should be pretty heavily diluted this weekend. That leaves Welker in the slot against Sensabaugh, and he could find some space to work with over the middle. He’s probably Denver’s best receiving option on Sunday, but the return of Michael Griffin from suspension does bring some cause for concern in that middle of the field area.
The rushing attack for the Broncos should see much more success because as good as the Titans have been in coverage, they’ve been equally awful against the run.They rank 2nd worst in the NFL over the last 5 games, allowing over 20 FPPG to opposing backs. With the Broncos as 10 point favorites in this one, don’t be surprised to see both Moreno and Ball to get a ton of touches with a big lead.
TEN @ DEN – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Ryan Fitzpatrick – Denver is 2nd worst in the NFL in terms of FP-allowed to QBs over the last three weeks and as a big underdog Fitzpatrick should be forced to throw a ton. His price tag has snuck up on a few sites but at $11.9K on DraftDay and $6.3K on DraftKings he’s a decent GPP value.
- Chris Johnson – He’s another GPP option but at $11K on DD and $105K on Feud he is really underpriced. He stands out on DraftKings at $7.1K as someone to avoid also.
- Kendall Wright – I’m not convinced his upside is high enough to carry a GPP roster, but on full point PPR sites the argument could be made in that favor. He’s a tremendous cash game play though with a full point per reception awarded, and is well worth the $6.1K on DK. For .5 PPR sites, I like his tag on DraftStreet at $8.5K and FTD at $9.5K
- Peyton Manning – He’s always relevant but he won’t find his way onto too many of my rosters this weekend. The Titans secondary is really talented and they might just pound the ball with Moreno and Ball. It’s not that I don’t think he can play well, I just think his #1 QB price tag is tough to pay given the matchup.
- Knowshon Moreno and Montee Ball – Moreno makes for the better H2H or cash game play, but is going to cost you a lot more. Moreno’s best values are on FD at $8.3K and StarStreet at $12.2K this weekend. Ball is a GPP option that could be a dirt cheap option who can win you a big tournament. He has 2 10+ FP efforts in his last 3 games and is just $5K on DS, $53K on FF and $4.8K on FD. He’s a little steep at $4.9K on DraftKings though.
- Wes Welker – Eric Decker had four straight abysmal performances before his Week 13 explosion, so if you believe that Peyton likes to spread the wealth week-to-week then it might be Welker’s time to have a huge game. His price has dropped drastically and he’s under $10K on DS, $6.9K on FD and $6.3K on DK. It’s hard to pass on him at that price in any format.
- Julius Thomas – I love him coming back from the injury on Sunday. Great matchup and his price is as low as it’s been since early in the year. $6.8K on FD, $8.3K on DS and $6.3K on DK are all tremendous bargains for a tight end who has as much upside as any TE this weekend, including Graham and Gronk.
St. Louis at Arizona
| St. Louis Rams | Arizona Cardinals | |||||||||
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| Sun – 4:25PM ET | Univ. of Phoenix Stadium | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
| 6 | 41.5 | 17.75 | -6 | 41.5 | 23.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 23.2 | 16 | 26 | 17 | Offense | 22.9 | 18 | 14 | 24 | |
| Defense | 23.2 | 14 | 19 | 15 | Defense | 20.6 | 8 | 16 | 4 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Arizona | 16 | 2 | 6 | 32 | St. Louis | 12 | 28 | 16 | 3 | |
| Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | Rec. Targets | Total | Seas | Last3 | Last1 | |
| Austin | 66 | 4.9 | 6.0 | 7.0 | Fitzgerald | 99 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 8.0 | |
| Givens | 72 | 6.0 | 7.5 | 9.0 | Floyd | 85 | 7.1 | 9.0 | 10.0 | |
| Pettis | 52 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 3.0 | Roberts | 63 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 8.0 | |
| Cook | 67 | 5.8 | 5.5 | 6.0 | Housler | 45 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 6.0 | |
St. Louis Rams
The Rams come into Sunday’s late afternoon game having had their 2 game winning streak snapped by the 49ers last weekend in San Francisco. Kellen Clemens threw for 218 yards and a score in the loss, and interestingly enough he has himself a four game TD streak. He threw the ball a lot last week and targeted Chris Givens a season-high 9 times, while also targeting Tavon Austin 7 times and Jared Cook 6 times. The Cardinals secondary has been pretty strong this season, so it’s pretty unlikely that we see a huge game out of Kellen or any of his wideouts, but there should be some openings for Cook who gets to face the worst defense vs. tight ends in the NFL. Arizona ranks dead last vs. the tight end for the season, last 5 weeks and last 3 weeks. In the Week 1 matchup between these two teams, Cook went for 141 and 2 scores and in 13 games this year the Cards defense has now allowed 14 receiving touchdowns to opposing TE’s. Three of those came last week when both Zach Ertz (2 times) and Brent Celek were able to find pay dirt. Arizona just doesn’t have the personnel to stop tight ends and Cook could be in for another huge game on Sunday.
The rushing game led by Zac Stacy looked OK last weekend, but having to play catch up prevented Stacy from getting too much going. St Louis also lost starting center Scott Wells for the year last weekend and at one point were at risk of not having All-Pro tackle Jake Long either. Long should dress though, which is terrific news for Stacy. The matchup will be Zac’s biggest problem on Sunday, as the Cardinals rush defense rating is 7th highest on PFF and they haven’t allowed an 80+ yard back since Week 7 against the Seahawks. McCoy came close last weekend, but in that 5 game span they’ve held opposing RB1’s to just 8, 56, 23, 33 and 79 rush yards.
Arizona Cardinals
A tough loss in Philly last weekend paired with a win from San Francisco puts Arizona in a must win situation for pretty much the remainder of the season. Carson Palmer was in question earlier in the week but is now expected to take the field and last weekend he targeted three different receivers 8 times or more (Fitzgerald, Roberts, Floyd). Floyd and Fitzgerald combined for 2 TD’s and 160+ receiving yards while Roberts brought in just 4 of his targets for 29 yards. The Cardinals passing game might be finding St. Louis at the perfect time. They’ve struggled immensely since losing Cortland Finnegan and while he may have been one of the worst rated corners in football, this Rams secondary has been atrocious since he went out and Trumaine Johnson was lost in Week 12. Look at the last three stat lines for opposing QBs vs. STL:
- Andrew Luck – 353 PaYd, 1 PaTD, 2 INT
- Josh McCown – 352 PaYd, 2 PaTD, 1 INT
- Colin Kaepernick – 275 PaYd, 1 PaTD
Before Week 10, the STL secondary had gone 8 weeks without allowing a 300+ yard passer. In fact, only 2 quarterbacks had even topped 200 yards in that time. But over the last three they’re allowing an average of over 333 PaYd per game (Hasselbeck replaced Luck late in Week 10 and threw for 68 more yards). Also worth noting, in Week 1 Palmer threw for 327 yards and 2 scores while targeting Fitzgerald 14 times for 8 receptions, 80 yards and 2 scores. Roberts and Floyd both had 80+ receiving yards in that game as well.
On the ground, the Cardinals should have Andre Ellington back this weekend which means more confusion for daily fantasy. I’d love to break this matchup down since Mendenhall averaged nearly 4 YPC in the Week 1 meeting but to be honest, I don’t even know where to start. Ellington has performed well when on the field but the coaching staff seems adamant on keeping his touches limited and force feeding Mendenhall the ball in key situations. There could be value against a defense that has allowed 4 opposing RBs to rush for over 100 yards, but I’m just not seeing it.
STL @ ARI – Daily Fantasy Relevant
- Zac Stacy – He’s proven he’s dynamic enough to be relevant anytime he’s not facing an elite front seven and while the Cardinals are good, they’re not elite. He’s underpriced on DS this week at $8.4K and might be worth a tournament play there. I also like him at $6.1K on DK and $12.2K on DD.
- Jared Cook – Cook might have a great matchup but he’s still a tournament play only. He’s gone over 12 FP just once in his last 6 games, so there’s reason for concern but at $4.9K on FD, $6K on DS, $8K on DD, $3.8K on DK, $8.9K on SS, $68K on FF and $7K on FTD he’s a bargain across the industry.
- Carson Palmer – St Louis has really struggled against the pass and has multiple touchdown passes in five consecutive games. He stands out as a nice QB2 on DraftStreet at $11.4K and as a bargain on FTD at $11.5K.
- Cardinals Receivers – Fitzgerald will likely cost you the most, but is the safest. Floyd has the most upside and will be a slightly cheaper price than Fitz. And Roberts is the deep sleeper that has a couple big stat lines this season and would be a cheap GPP hail mary. That’s about the gist of the Cards receivers. If you’re playing in a huge qualifier, I’d stack Palmer with Floyd, but if it’s a smaller tournament and you want to handcuff, the Palmer/Fitzgerald combo should be safe.