Playing NFL DFS on Rosters: Week 4

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“Seth, can you look at my lineups from last week and tell me what I’m doing wrong? Here are my lineups from FanDuel and DraftKings. I won all my cash games on FanDuel but I lost all my cash games on DraftKings. What did I do wrong?”

From time to time, I receive direct messages similar to the above paragraph. Sometimes the sites are flip flopped—as in the person wins on DraftKings but not FanDuel. The answer to the question is almost always the same though. You built a lineup optimized for the scoring and salary structure on one site and then you tried to jam it onto another site.

Let me give you an example of what someone might try this week to explain what I mean. Terrelle Pryor is $4,300 on DK and $7000 on FD. If you build a lineup on DK this week, Pryor should be in it unless you are going out of your way to be different. If you build a lineup on FD, it is totally defensible not to play Pryor at all. He’s just $500 less than Larry Fitzgerald and $600 less than Marvin Jones. In comparison, Jones and Fitzgerald will cost you at least $3000 more on DK. If you send me a FD and DK lineup this week and Terrelle Pryor is in both, I can pretty much assume you built your DK lineup first and then copied it over.

Why did I just spend all that time talking about FD and DK when this is a Rosters article? Well, I’m assuming you probably have tried one or both of those sites. In this article, I’ll be mentioning some picks that can help you win on Rosters. What I’m trying to warn you against is opening up Rosters and simply entering as many players as you can from your lineup on a different site and then spending whatever is left on one last guy to make it work.

If you decide to give Rosters a try this week, give it an honest shot. Sit down for an hour or so and mess around with lineups. Try fitting in different combinations and see what feels right. If you are new, and sign up through this link you can get $20 free with a $10 deposit. The $20 is credited manually so it may take a few hours but you’ll end up with $30 in your account from a $10 deposit. On top of that, you’ll get one year of RotoGrinders Incentives to help you build your Rosters bankroll. If you still aren’t sold, there’s also this chance to win tickets to the Super Bowl.

Alright, that should do it for the sales pitch. Let’s talk about some site-specific plays to help you fill out your Rosters lineup. As a reminder, Rosters is not a late swap site. If you enter the THU-MON NFL slate your players will lock at the start of the first game. The advantage to playing on a non-swap site like Rosters is that you can see your opponents’ lineups as soon as tonight’s games start. If you are struggling with finding the best plays, enter a cheap contest for the THU-MON slate and then reverse engineer the other lineups in your contest to find some of the best plays you may have missed.

Quarterback

Philip Rivers ($12,000) – Last week, I pointed out that comparing salary rank between sites is an effective way to find value. Rivers is the fourth-most-expensive QB on FD, the sixth on DK, and the twelfth on Rosters. Seriously, as I was scrolling down the list, I started to wonder if they forget to put Rivers in the player pool. I really started losing hope once I passed Carson Palmer, Kirk Cousins and Joe Flacco but I finally found our guy Rivers down here at $12,000. The Chargers have the highest team total on the slate and are playing in the game with the highest over/under. The only thing that will hold down Philip Rivers’ ownership is DFS players’ unwillingness to play Rivers and Melvin Gordon on the same team. The way Rivers and Gordon are priced, you absolutely can play both, even in the same lineup.

Matthew Stafford ($12,600) – If I can’t convince you to play Rivers, maybe you’ll enjoy my other value option in Matthew Stafford. Many of our opponents will be focused on Cam Newton, Andrew Luck and Drew Brees priced at the top. While I’m not going to talk you out of those options, I think that Stafford has the same upside and he’s a lot cheaper. Through three games, Stafford has thrown the ball 39, 40, and 41 times. Last season Stafford scored 24.9 and 34.9 points in two games against this same Bears’ defense. Based on the matchup, plus Stafford’s anticipated passing volume, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where Stafford would crush your lineup.

Running Back

Melvin Gordon ($11,000) – Let’s just get this one out of the way real fast. Melvin Gordon is the twelfth-most-expensive RB on Rosters. The Saints have allowed 121.6 points to RBs through just three weeks. The Saints have also allowed the most Red Zone plays (53) and the most plays inside the 10-yard line (35). Things set up for one or more Gordon touchdowns this week. He has a legitimate chance to be the top-scoring RB yet he’s priced as the twelfth.

Theo Riddick ($8,200) – If you end up using Melvin Gordon and a cheap QB, you can probably afford a top-option as your other RB. I’m not trying to say that you should play Stafford/Rivers, Gordon, and Riddick here. I’m just giving you some ideas and Riddick’s price is interesting. Rosters awards one Point Per Reception (PPR) so a back that catches passes has more value. Riddick is priced behind Jordan Howard, Alfred Morris, Justin Forsett, and Tevin Coleman. All of those besides Howard are either a backup or in a timeshare. Riddick has games of 27.8, 10.5 and 11.8 so far this season. He’s a much safer bet to return value than many priced above him. He’ll be low-owned though because most of our opponents won’t scroll far enough to find him.

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Wide Receiver

Will Fuller ($9,700) – In the introduction I mentioned Terrelle Pryor. I need to clarify that the reason you wouldn’t want to play Pryor on FD is because of 0.5 PPR scoring. If you want to play Pryor on Rosters, you certainly can. It’s a full-PPR site and $9800 is a fair price for the Browns #1 WR who also plays some snaps at QB. If you are looking for a pivot off Pryor, Will Fuller is $100 cheaper. Fuller had a down week against the Patriots last week but he still has 25 targets through three games. Fuller’s opponent, the Titans, do not typically shadow their opponent’s best WR. Jason McCourty has played 94% of his snaps at LCB and Perrish Cox has played 93% at RCB (data from Pro Football Focus). Fuller has lined up as the LWR 42% and RWR 45%. What I’m getting at here is that both Hopkins and Fuller should run at Cox about 50% of the time. Cox is the matchup we want to target here.

While we are talking about punt WRs, I need to mention Tyrell Williams. He’s $8100 on Rosters which is way too cheap. I’m not wasting a spot writing him in this article though. If I did, I would have to re-title it “How to Stack the Chargers and Lions.” However, it is worth noting that Tyrell Williams has more targets than Travis Benjamin and also leads the Chargers in Red Zone targets. I wouldn’t even be afraid to play all of Rivers, Gordon, and Williams on the same lineup.

T.Y. Hilton ($14,000) – One advantage to playing the THU-MON contests on Rosters is that they include the THU game plus the London game on Sunday morning (Colts and Jaguars) as well as the Monday night game (Vikings and Giants). There isn’t a lot of chatter this week about T.Y. Hilton. The big reason is that you can’t use him on the Main Slate on the big sites. Hilton is currently fifth in the NFL in targets. He’ll mostly be matched up against Jalen Ramsey this week out of the slot. Hilton should also see some looks against Davon House and Prince Amukamara as well. The matchup is pretty neutral here but Hilton is looking at 10+ targets in that matchup. $14,000 is a very far price to pay for that kind of volume.

Tight End

Zach Miller ($6,200) – When researching, one of the things I like to look at is Defense vs. Position. Even in a small sample we can start to identify trends. If you click on the DVP link in the Daily Research Console here on RotoGrinders you’ll notice the Lions have given up 72.6 points to Tight Ends this season. Those numbers include five touchdowns. Zach Miller was targeted nine times last week which he turned into eight catches for 72 yards and two touchdowns. If he sees anywhere close to nine targets again this week, he’ll easily return value against the worst defense versus TE.

Greg Olsen ($9,800) – With all the value options I’ve provided, you can certainly fit Greg Olsen on your team this week if you want. Somehow, he’s not the most-expensive option even though he has the highest average PPG. Olsen gets a dream matchup against the second-worst defense versus TE. The Falcons allow 24.57 points per game to the position. Let’s not forget that Coby Fleener just went for 7/109/1 against this same Falcons defense.

Kicker, Defense, and Closing Thoughts

Last week, I had some of you message me asking why I didn’t mention any defense or kicker recommendations. I actually did mention the Dolphins and Texans as options. One of those worked and the other was terrible. This week, I’m generally paying up for defense. The Arizona Cardinals draw a home matchup against what has most been an inept Los Angeles Rams offense. The Cardinals are the most-expensive but they seem unlikely to disappoint. After the Cardinals, I would skip down to the Texans at $5500. I’m aware J.J. Watt is not playing this week but Marcus Mariota a tendency to make mistakes. I also wouldn’t have an issue with the Broncos at $5400. If you need some other recommendations go read Stewburt8x’s Defense Column.

As far as Kickers go, 45% of my Rosters opponents last week played Will Lutz at the $5000 minimum. He’s priced there again this week and will probably be popular. If you would prefer to dig a little deeper, sportsgrinder wrote an article this week about selecting kickers. Go read it! The cheapest option he likes for Rosters is Josh Lambo at $5,400.

With that, I’m out of here. Hopefully, you enjoyed my thoughts on Rosters pricing this week. There are several really good options that I couldn’t mention here. My intent is to provide the building blocks that allow you to fit the other pieces you want. If you have any questions feel free to comment below or send me a message.

About the Author

sethayates
Seth Yates (sethayates)

Seth Yates hails from Dayton, Ohio. Seth started playing DFS during the NBA Playoffs in 2012. Seth rose to stardom in 2014 when he won the NFL Preseason Bomb using picks he blogged about. When he isn’t playing DFS, Seth is a Financial Analyst for the Air Force. Even though paying taxes on DFS isn’t fun, Seth re-invests your taxes back into DFS for you.