Raybon's Rollout: NFL Week 16
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
We have an interesting main slate. LeSean McCoy is priced like he’s Le’Veon Bell or David Johnson. Bell is absent from the slate altogether, while Johnson has one of the toughest matchups possible. It seems like a nice week to go contrarian — unlike the last few weeks, no player jumps out as a must-play.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Matt Barkley + RB Jordan Howard
Barkley will throw some picks, but has flashed upside this season, posting two 300-yard, multi-TD games in four starts, as well as a game where he averaged 10.6 yards per attempt but only threw 18 times in the snow. Howard meanwhile, has 110+ yards from scrimmage in each of his past four games and 99+ in each of his past seven.
Per FantasyLabs, small home underdogs (1-5 points) actually have doubled their salary-based expectations slightly more than home favorite RBs regardless of spread, while small home underdog QBs have doubled their salary-based expectations at the same rate at home favorite QBs regardless of spread. The Redskins are ranked 31st and 27th in 4for4’s strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs and RBs, respectively.
QB Marcus Mariota + TE Delanie Walker + WR Allen Robinson
After two sub-10-point outings coming off the bye, recency bias may cause the masses to forget Mariota was the FanDuel QB2 and DraftKings QB4 from Weeks 5-12. The Jaguar pass defense isn’t quite as strong as it looks on paper — despite being ranked fifth on DraftKings and seventh on FanDuel in points allowed to QBs, they drop to 11th in strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs. Teams have been attacking the Jags via the TE position, and the Jags have been somewhat vulnerable, allowing 5-60-1 on 10 targets to Vikings TEs two weeks ago and 9-92-0 to Texans TEs last week. Walker is top-five in PPG at the position and is especially attractive on DraftKings, where his $4,300 is salary is at its second-lowest point of the season.
The 2-12 Jaguars are likely to fall behind in his game, and if so, Robinson would be in a prime position to benefit. He has been miserable over his last five games, posting just 10 catches for 105 yards on his 32 targets. A closer look, however, reveals he faced extremely tough matchups, going against Darius Slay, a Rex Ryan defense on the road, the Broncos’ elite DBs, Xavier Rhodes, and A.J. Bouye. That’s not the case this week — the Titans rank dead last in strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to WRs.
RB Thomas Rawls + D/ST Seahawks
Rawls is likely to be a contrarian play coming off a brutal 21-carry, 34-yard showing and now going against a Cardinals run defense that is strong on paper, but he’s in a good spot as a home favorite RB at his lowest salary since his return from injury in Week 11. The Cardinals defense has allowed multiple rushing TDs in 35.7% of their games, tied for third-most in the NFL. After Seahawks self-appointed offensive coordinator Richard Sherman went on a tirade when the team threw the ball from the one-yard line last week, I expect the Seahawks to keep it on the ground in scoring position versus an opponent that has proven vulnerable in that area. Rostering Rawls means embracing volatility — we know his offensive line stinks, but he posted 7.07 yards per carry on 15 carries against a stout Carolina run defense (3.7 yards per carry allowed, fifth in NFL and same as Arizona) three weeks ago, and 5.58 yards per carry versus Green Bay two weeks ago before last week’s 1.62 mark.
The Seahawks’ defense may go somewhat overlooked due to the absence of Earl Thomas, but this is still one of the NFL’s top units playing as a sizeable home favorite (-8) against a Cardinals team ranked 25th in strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing D/STs. While the Seahawks can clinch a first-round bye by winning their last two games, the Cardinals may arrive in Seattle unmotivated, having their playoff hopes officially ended by the Saints last week.
RB Ty Montgomery + D/ST Packers
Montgomery Packers is the perfect RB-defense stack. Not only do you get to take advantage of an RB whose price is too low relative to his opportunity and talent in a game where his team is a home favorite, but you also get to benefit from the double-dip effect on special teams, as Montgomery is the Packers’ primary kickoff returner and returned four kicks a week ago. Montgomery has been a monster on the ground this season, averaging 6.5 yards per carry. I mentioned his talent, which is evident by the fact that he has forced a missed tackle on 26.8% of his touches and averages 5.98 yards after contact per attempt, as noted by PFF’s Jeff Ratcliffe. The Vikings aren’t an imposing matchup — they grade out 16th in run defense DVOA and 20th in strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to RBs.
The Packers defense, meanwhile, has scored at least 8.0 FanDuel/DraftKings points in each of their last four games. They have forced 3.0 turnovers and allowed just 15.8 points per game during that span. Capers’ unit also has played much better at Lambeau this season, edging their per-game road averages in points allowed (18.7 vs. 28.9) and turnovers forced (2.1 vs. 1.0).
K Greg Zuerlein + D/ST Rams
Even though Todd Gurley was literally the only RB the 49ers’ run defense has stopped all season (17-47-0 in Week 1), the temptation will be there for many users to roster him at a modest price tag. The leverage play here is pairing Zuerlein with the Rams defense. If the Rams stall out in the red zone, it will be Zuerlein racking up points on scoring plays, not Gurley.
Furthermore, if the Rams are able to score a TD on defense or special teams — which is not out of the question as a home favorite going against a 1-13 team that is ranked 24th in strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points allowed to D/STs — Gurley would lose a possession and scoring opportunity. It should also be noted that only the Jaguars allow more strength-of-schedule adjusted fantasy points to kickers than the 49ers.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
The Patriots’ Pass-Happy Ways Against the Jets
Despite the fact that Sheldon Richardson would rather bed women (of questionable promiscuity?) than play football for the Jets (who wouldn’t), the Jets’ run defense (third in DVOA) remains stronger than their pass defense (32nd). Per 4for4’s John Paulsen, the Patriots have passed 73% of the time in three meetings with Bowles’ Jets, compared to 57% against all other opponents. Tom Brady makes for a nice pivot off of Drew Brees, who will be more highly owned.
Despite a decrease in snaps to 65% over the past three weeks, Julian Edelman leads the league in targets per game (13.0) over that span, and also leads the league in targets per game since Brady’s Week 5 return (11.1). The Jets have also allowed two multi-TD games to TEs over the past three weeks, so Martellus Bennett is a sneaky option as well.
Injury Situation to Exploit
Matt Forte’s “Nerve Issue” and Torn Meniscus
Forte surprisingly gutted it out last Saturday, but played on just 13-of-76 snaps. Now he has a nerve issue in his shoulder and it doesn’t sound like he will play much, if it all, this week. Bilal Powell received 12 targets last week, and also has two other games with 8+ targets this season. This is notable, because as Al Smizzle likes to say, the puzzle pieces fit together:
New England — likely due to their tendency to jump out to a lead — has allowed the second-most receptions per game to RBs this season (6.71), including receiving lines of 11-8-42-1 (Kenneth Dixon, Week 14), 7-7-87-0 (C.J. Prosise, Week 10), and 13-10-68-1 (Le’Veon Bell, Week 7). Powell is averaging 31 touches per game over his last two games (to be fair, one included overtime), but there is a chance you’ll get Le’Veon Bell/David Johnson-esque usage for two-thirds of the cost by rolling out Powell.