Raybon’s Rollout: NFL Week 2
Welcome back to Raybon’s Rollout, where I highlight the stacks and players I’ll be rolling out in DFS. For data on the hit rates of the different stacks I list below, check out the intro in the first edition of this column here.
Let’s jump right into Week 2.
Unconventional Stacks
QB Eli Manning + RB Rashad Jennings + WR Odell Beckham
The Saints defense is softer than Quilted Northern Ultra Plush toilet paper, which is fitting when considering where all toilet paper ends up. The Giants’ implied total is pushing 29 as of this writing, while the Saints defense has permitted 11 more TDs than any other defense in the NFL since the start of 2015 — the Giants have a legitimate shot to score four or more. On both DraftKings and FanDuel, the QB-RB1-WR1 stack had the greatest hit rate among all three-man stacks. Manning and Beckham will be the chalk stack of the week for good reason, as the Saints’ cornerback group sans Delvin Breaux (fibula) consists of three rookies (only one of which was drafted) and a couple of journeymen signed in the past two weeks.
What may go overlooked is the fact that New Orleans coughed up 202 total yards and 3 TDs to RBs last week after finishing as a bottom-two team versus the position in 2015. Jennings received 18 carries and two targets in Week 1, continuing a trend from the last four games of 2015 which saw him average 23 carries-plus-targets per game.
QB Trevor Siemian + RB C.J. Anderson
Coming off a 24-touch, 137-yard, 2-TD day against the stout Panthers defense, Anderson will be a chalk play as a home favorite against a Colts team that surrendered a ghastly 229 total yards and 4 TDs to RBs in Week 1.
The case for stacking Anderson with Siemian? Roughly 70% of top-six QBs in a given week are favorites, over 60% have a team total above 24, and nearly 60% are at home. With a team total at 26 as of this writing, Siemian quietly checks all of those boxes. He’ll match up against a depleted Colts defense that lists 11 players on the Wednesday injury report and finished with the worst DVOA in the league last week…even worse than the Saints. I’ve been compiling data on the winning DraftKings Millionaire Maker and FanDuel Sunday Million lineups and found that the average QB in the winning lineup is under 7% owned on DraftKings and under 5% owned on FanDuel. Right now, Siemian is an unknown; we don’t know if he’s good, average, or terrible. But at a price point cheaper than almost every starting QB save for Case Keenum and Josh McCown, and going against what could be the league’s worst or second-worst defense with all the predictive indicators in his favor, I believe rostering Siemian is a worthwhile gamble. If the Broncos are to reach their implied total, then Siemian, rather than Anderson alone, will almost certainly have something to do with it.
QB Cam Newton + WR Kelvin Benjamin + WR Jeremy Kerley
Opposing passing games are strongly correlated because if one passing game is having success, the opposing side inevitably will have to throw to keep up. The Panthers have the highest implied total (29.5) on the slate as of this writing, higher than even the Giants going against the Saints. A big reason why is that Chip Kelly plays an up-tempo brand of football that inflates the amount of snaps for both teams — Kelly’s Eagles ranked in the top-two in plays allowed in each of his three seasons with the team. Since 2014, Newton has played in six other games where the Panthers were a favorite by seven or more. In those games he averages a ridiculous 3.17 passing TDs, 0.5 rushing TDs, and 308.5 combined passing and rushing yards.
Benjamin returned from a torn ACL to casually post a 6-91-1 line on arguably the best cornerback group in the NFL, and hogged 38.9% of Newton’s targets in the process.
Kerley, meanwhile, was acquired via trade in the preseason, which means the 49ers had at least some desire for him specifically. He went on to lead the team in targets (11), receptions (7), and yards (61) in Week 1. In fact, only eight players in the entire league had more targets than Kerley, and he should have had a 40+ yard TD that Blaine Gabbert overthrew him on. Kerley is no stranger to producing good numbers for poorly quarterbacked teams against strong opponents when pressed into a larger role: he posted an 8-97-1 line with Geno Smith against the Patriots in 2013, and a 7-120 line with Mark Sanchez against the Patriots in 2012. If you play in season long leagues (or MFL10s) you’ll understand this next statement: Kerley may be everything we wanted Bruce Ellington to be.
K Justin Tucker + D/ST Baltimore Ravens
The correlation between kicker and D/ST is on par with a QB and all his receivers save for the WR1. Kicker scoring is positively correlated with Vegas implied team totals, and Baltimore’s is a healthy 24.5 as of this writing. D/ST scoring is negatively correlated with opposing team totals, and Cleveland’s currently sits at a paltry 18. Both kickers and defenses post better numbers as favorites, because coaches are more likely to kick field goals when leading, and defense are more likely to face passing attempts (which, of course, lead to valuable sacks and interceptions) when leading.
RB LeGarrette Blount + D/ST New England Patriots
The RB-D/ST stack is not as strongly correlated as D/ST-kicker, but can still be viable in situations where game script cooperates. After pulling off a road upset against a good Cardinals team in Week 1, the Patriots seem highly likely to be in control against a Miami team that mustered only 10 points against the Seahawks. The Patriots are 6.5-point favorites as of this writing, with the Dolphins team total sitting below 18. Only three RBs had more carries than Blount in Week 1. Blount has six multi-TD games in his 39 career games with New England (including playoffs), five of which have come at home.
Coaching Tendency to Exploit
TE Jesse James vs. Paul Guenther’s Tendency to Allow Tight Ends to Sit Down Underneath
Opponents targeted the Guenther’s defense over the middle more than any other team in 2015, and the Bengals allowed the second highest percentage of targets directed at TEs (24.7%). This tendency doesn’t show up in the Week 1 box score because the Jets essentially don’t use the TE position in their offense. However, if we go back to 2015, former Steelers TE Heath Miller caught 10 passes in both games against the Bengals, even though he averaged 3.0 catches in his other 13 games. In fact, the Bengals allowed double-digit PPR games to the likes of Chris Gragg, Owen Daniels, and Maxx Williams. I wasn’t on James last week like many other DFS players were, but after seeing his usage — he was one of only three TEs to play 100% of snaps and only five TEs received more targets than him (7) — I believe this is the week to use him.
Injury Situations to Exploit
Last week, I cautioned against being overconfident in Julio Jones and Golden Tate because WRs have seen a 12% dip in production, on average, when playing after being listed on the injury report in a given week. Both WRs underperformed relative to expectation and were worthwhile tournament fades. This week, we have a repeat appearance on this list:
WR Julio Jones, ankle
After appearing on the injury report with an ankle last week, Jones saw less than 10 targets for only the fifth time in his last 24 games, and turned in a 4-66-1 line in a dream matchup, which isn’t going to cut it at a salary of $9,000+. After the Raiders got destroyed by Drew Brees and company last week, DFS players may be tempted to fire up Jones. However, Jones apparently tweaked his ankle again in last week’s game and is again on the injury report. With ankle injuries historically causing a 12% dip in production, Odell Beckham and A.J. Green are far better options at Jones’ price point.
RB Jonathan Stewart, ankle
From 2008-15, RBs on the injury report have suffered an 11% dip in production when playing after being listed on the injury report with an ankle. Because Cam Newton (and Mike Tolbert) tend to vulture TDs from Stewart, we can’t really afford an 11% dip, even if he does have a nice matchup as a large home favorite against the 49ers.