Risers and Fallers: Volume 11
I’m back for another week of reviewing the most interesting players from the past seven days, pairing advanced metrics and insights from my DFS projection system, THE BAT, with my scouting background to try to figure out what to make of some the week’s most active lot of ballplayers. Guys whose stock is going up, guys whose stock is going down, guys who are perpetually underpriced or overpriced, guys who are worth paying a premium for, or guys who are just interesting and warrant some analysis on.
If anyone ever has a suggestion for a player they’d like to see included, feel free to send me an email or a tweet.
Without further ado, let’s jump right into it!
RISING (SERIOUSLY?)… BUT WOULD REQUIRE THE KIKE HERNANDEZ SPECIAL TO BE VIABLE
Adam Rosales, 2B/3B, San Diego Padres
Adam Rosales is not good. Let’s get that right out in the open. Of course, there are some people who would disagree. Somehow. And not just one or two people. A rabid mob. There was a bit of a Twitter debate on Friday night, with far more people on the side of Rosales actually being a viable play on occasion. I was half-expecting Ashton Kutcher to show up on my doorstep that night.
Not only is Rosales not very good, but he hits eighth for one of the weakest offenses in baseball. Even in Great American Ball Park this weekend against weak lefties, Rosales should have come nowhere near your DFS lineup.
Rosales’ champions claim that he’s solid against lefties. A career .238 batting average and .306 wOBA are not solid. Then it was clarified that he’s been good for the past three and a half years. Ignoring the arbitrariness of such a cut-off point, and ignoring the absurdly small 306 plate appearance sample size, Rosales still has just a .236 average and .319 wOBA. You know what the league average for righties against lefties is this year? A .263 average and a .329 wOBA.
Not only is Rosales not a lefty “masher,” not only is he not “notable,” but he’s quite a bit below average, even if we ignore his weaker past data, the fact that he’s now 33, and the tiny sample that people are trying to draw conclusions from. You could maybe make the case that he’s been “decent” against lefties in the past, but if we account for these issues with methodology, as we would do if we were actually trying to figure out how good Rosales should be against lefties going forward, our expectation would be lower. THE BAT estimates the wOBA as .304 vs. LHP in the future. However you spin it, unless you’re cherry-picking and ignoring sound statistical principles and methodology, Rosales is not a viable DFS play, even in great matchups against lefties. Not unless he was allowed to hit higher in the order and was near minimum price or was below minimum price thanks to a pricing error.
Rosales lovers, of course, were paid off big on Friday night, and they had no issue pointing out what a great game he had and how I must be wrong because of it. If you read my work, though, I don’t need to tell you that the outcome of a single game can’t prove or disprove a point. I said, half-joking, on GrindersLive Saturday morning that I’d take Drew Pomeranz as a hitter before Rosales. He hit a home run, but you don’t see me going around using it evidence than Pomeranz as a hitter was a good play. Brag about it, sure, because that’s just hysterical. I’d tell Rosales haters to suck it, but honestly, if they want to make terrible plays, more power to them, because that’s free money for those of us who actually use logic and reason to pick our players. Trying to convince your competition that they’re making bad picks is almost as dumb as playing Rosales yourself in the first place. So I’ve explained it to you, and now I’m done.
ABOUT TO START RISING
Jose Reyes, SS, New York Mets
After beginning the year suspended for domestic violence and returning to Trevor Story firmly entrenched as the starting shortstop, the Rockies released Jose Reyes this week. Having only to pay him the prorated minimum, the Mets snapped up Reyes. They sent him to the minors for some quick seasoning, but word is he could be up late this week and will hit leadoff when he returns. He’s not in DraftKings’ or FanDuel’s player pool yet, so his price will determine viability, but leading off for the Mets could certainly put him in play for the right price.
Reyes is getting older, but he can still hit for a solid average, steal a few bases, and score some runs on days the Mets project well. He’s a switch-hitter who hits a bit better against lefties than righties, which is the opposite of when the Mets generally project well as a team, but the gap is fairly small and shouldn’t wind up being much of a concern.
FALLING… AND I’M NOT BUYING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE
Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
McCutchen is in the midst of his worst season of the year, but until late it hadn’t gotten much attention. Last week on GrindersLive, Dean pointed out that if it weren’t for Giancarlo Stanton’s ice cold-ness, McCutchen would be the guy we’d be asking the “What the hell is wrong with this guy?” questions about. So, what the hell is wrong with this guy? According to Pirates beat writer Travis Sawchik, McCutchen’s struggles stem from a thumb injury he sustained:
“The real issue for McCutchen has been his thumb. The base of his thumb swelled to the size of golf ball late in May due to what McCutchen said was the result of a tighter grip he unknowingly was using this season, which meant his thumb was bearing the brunt of contact when he was jammed.”
‘I know it (right thumb) probably has a lot to do with how I’ve been doing out there,’ McCutchen told the Tribune-Review and MLB.com last week. ‘I would hate to attribute most of it to that, but at the same time, I’ve been doing it all year.’”
The timing certainly matches up. Through the middle of May, McCutchen held a .365 wOBA. Since then, he’s at just .280. And, of course, this makes perfect sense. The ability to grip a bat is incredibly important, and we’ve seen guys have trouble in the past when their thumbs start to get worn down by the handle. The more common injury is a fractured hamate bone, a small bone in the base of the hand. They even make special bats now, called Axe Bats, with handles that don’t dig into the hand. Most prominently, Dustin Pedroia has endorsed the bats after suffering from such issues.
McCutchen hit two home runs on Saturday, which is a great sign that he could be starting to feel healthy again. Issues like this can linger, though, and I’m not ready to start playing McCutchen again just yet, no matter how cheap he is.
PROSPECT SPOTLIGHT
A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros
The Astros recalled their top prospect this weekend, strangely enough just a couple days after saying a promotion wasn’t forthcoming. Reed competed for the first base job in Spring Training, but Tyler White’s hot spring and maybe the ‘Stros wanting Reed to get a little more seasoning led to him starting the year in the minors. He’s up now, and he could be up for good.
Reed has plus raw power—not Peter O’Brien or Steve Moya big, but big. Unlike these other recent call-ups, though, Reed has much better pitch recognition and plate discipline. He’ll strike out at an above average (but not ridiculous) rate, but he’ll take plenty of walks as well. He has solid contact skills and looks to be a complete hitter. He has a big platoon split, and the Astros have been hitting him sixth against righties. For his low initial price ($2,800 on DraftKings—he’s not in the FanDuel player pool yet), will absolutely be in play. The Astros will be going into Anaheim to start this week, but against Tim Lincecum and Jered Weaver he could still be a good punt. After that, Houston returns home to face Miguel Gonzalez on Friday.
Brandon Nimmo, OF, New York Mets
Nimmo was a former first round pick of the Mets and is certainly a legitimate prospect, but he’s nowhere near Reed’s level. He has some potential power gains to be made, but at present he doesn’t have a whole lot. What he does have is patience, and plenty of it (and a modicum of speed). Nimmo will draw walks and limit strikeouts, which means he could be a solid enough contact hitter if he can drive the ball into the gaps. Like Reed, Nimmo has a big platoon split and probably won’t play much against lefties, but against righties he could be in play.
Drawing his first start on Sunday, Nimmo batted eighth in the order, even with some regulars resting. The Mets instead opted to hit Kelly Johnson first and Matt Reynolds second, so it doesn’t seem likely Nimmo will draw many starts in good batting spots. So while his $2,100 price tag on DraftKings is great (he’s not in the FanDuel player pool yet), he’ll be limited to GPPs only. Plus, Nimmo may not have a spot at all once Michael Conforto is ready to come back, especially if he doesn’t get off to a hot start.
RISING… AND UNDERPRICED
Devon Travis, 2B, Toronto Blue Jays
I wrote up Travis a few weeks ago in a similar vein that I did Reyes today. He had just been activated off the DL, and the Jays said they’d slowly start working him into the leadoff spot. We’ve finally started seeing that this past week, and Travis has been a great play on several occasions. I expect that to continue this week. As I said back then, “Travis is a guy… that doesn’t really excel at any one thing, but he has solid plate discipline, a good contact stroke, some gap-to-gap power (with a little potential for more), and a hint of speed.” Priced in the mid-$3,000s on DraftKings and the low $3,000s on FanDuel, Travis will be one of the better second base plays going forward. He won’t be that low in Coors this week (but he’ll be a great play anyway, of course), but when they return home to the Rogers Centre next weekend it will be interesting to see where he levels out.
Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Tulo came off the DL himself this week, but it seems like he’s been largely ignored. He was a part of that spell earlier this year where the Jays were just terrible and lost people a lot of money, so there may still be a bad taste in some peoples’ mouthes. After all, he hit just .199 with a .286 wOBA to start the year. Tulo, however, has a long history of injuries, and struggles at the plate are often linked to them. I’m willing to forgive Tulo, who most forget is one of the most talented shortstops in all of baseball when healthy. Carlos Correa, Corey Seager… and that’s about it. Those are the only two shortstops more talented than Tulo. He’s hit .318 with a .440 wOBA in 24 plate appearances since coming off the DL, so it seems safe enough to assume that Tulo is healthy and ready to produce again. He’ll be elite in Coors this week and great thereafter. With any luck, he’ll fall back down to the mid-$3,000s level on DraftKings and low-$3,000s level n FanDuel so we can get him at a discount for a little while.