RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week: Week 8

by RotoGrinders Last Updated 2016-10-30 14:29:23

Welcome to the RotoGrinders Matchup of the Week! Each week, this piece will pull out one matchup that stands out to us on the weekend’s slate.

Below, you will find JMToWin’s writeup of this game from his NFL Edge – the most in-depth, DFS-specific piece in the industry, in which every game is broken down from top to bottom in a DFS-specific manner – and you will also find assorted thoughts from some of the other, top minds in Daily Fantasy Sports.

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Editor’s Note: ESPN’s Adam Schefter is reporting that Randall Cobb is not expected to play in Week 8.

JMToWin’s NFL Edge

Packers at Falcons

Vegas-Implied Total: Falcons 28.0, Packers 25.0

KEY MATCHUPS:

Falcons Run D – 21st DVOA / 9th Yards allowed per carry
Packers Run O – 20th DVOA / 16th Yards per carry

Falcons Pass D – 24th DVOA / 18th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Packers Pass O – 13th DVOA / 29th Yards per pass attempt

Packers Run D – 2nd DVOA / 1st Yards allowed per carry
Falcons Run O – 6th DVOA / 11th Yards per carry

Packers Pass D – 10th DVOA / 26th Yards allowed per pass attempt
Falcons Pass O – 3rd DVOA / 1st Yards per pass attempt

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Surprise!

A game with the Falcons once again has the week’s highest Over/Under. In fact, the Falcons not only have the highest Vegas-implied total on the weekend, but the Packers currently have the seventh-highest Vegas-implied total.

The key here, of course, has nothing to do with the Packers’ defense – which is solid all the way around. Instead, the key here has to do with the Falcons – on both sides of the ball. The Falcons’ offense is good enough that they have scored at least 30 points in every game against a team other than Denver or Seattle (they still scored 23 at Denver and 24 at Seattle), and their defense is bad enough that every game against “not Denver or Seattle” has combined for at least 55 total points (with two games already of 77 or more points!). Even their game at Seattle hit 50 total points, making it once again likely that the Falcons will be engaged in a high-scoring affair.

On the season, the Falcons have been a run-heavy team – ranking 22nd in passing play percentage – but as we talked about in this space last week, the Falcons are comfortable running the ball when the ground offers the path of least resistance. In great passing matchups against Oakland and New Orleans, Ryan threw only 34 and 30 times, respectively, as each team could also be beaten on the ground. Against Denver’s stout pass D and susceptible run D, Ryan threw only 28 times. But against a Bucs team in Week 1 that entered the season with a reputation for great run defense and poor pass defense, Ryan threw 37 times, and against a Panthers defense that has been excellent against the run and awful against the pass, he hit the same mark (37 attempts). Ryan was even called on to throw 42 times against Seattle (who is excellent against both the run and the pass).

Given that the Packers rank first in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and second in run defense DVOA, we can comfortably predict somewhere around 35 or more pass attempts for Ryan in this one, as the Falcons shift their focus to attacking through the air.

The Packers have been up-and-down this year against number one receivers, holding Odell Beckham to a disappointing 5-56-1 line (on 12 targets), while shutting down both Alshon Jeffery and Cameron Meredith last week (though that was with Matt Barkley playing half the game). The Packers also, however, allowed memorable lines of 9-182-1 to Stefon Diggs and 6-205-2 to Marvin Jones. They even allowed a 6-72-0 line to Allen Robinson in Week 1 that looked impressive at the time, but that still marks his highest yardage output on the season. Dom Capers is a solid defensive coordinator and there is some talent in this Packers secondary, but this nevertheless sets up as an excellent spot for Julio Jones.

There is also a lot to like about Devonta Freeman in this spot, with Tevin Coleman expected to miss Week 8. While there is obviously not a direct “two for one” swap set to take place in terms of usage, it is worth noting that Devonta and Tevin have combined for touch totals on the year of 29, 21, 36, 26, 34, 31, and 28. The running back position is a big part of this offense, and while the Packers have been tough against the run (even with opponent accounted for, as DVOA aims to do), there is plenty to like about a guy who can be expected to see 25 or more touches.

The remaining pieces on the Falcons are rarely worthy of notice, as Jacob Tamme has not seen more than three targets in four consecutive weeks, and Mohamed Sanu has four games already this year of five or fewer targets. With Coleman out, I expect the Falcons to focus even more heavily on Julio and Devonta, rather than expecting them to “spread those looks around” to the rest of the offense.

Aaron Rodgers threw for over 300 yards last week – which is cause for celebration in Packer Land, as he had not reached that mark (including playoffs) in 14 consecutive games.

Of course, Rodgers required 56 throws in order to meet that mark…but, why not? Eddie Lacy is out. James Starks is out. We could very well see the Packers stick to the pass once again. Against a defense that has allowed the third-most passing touchdowns in the NFL, there is plenty to like about Rodgers in this spot.

Aiding the likelihood that the Packers stick to the air is the new-look backfield that has former wide receiver Ty Montgomery lining up alongside Rodgers for the bulk of the “running back” work. Since Lacy went down, Montgomery has seen 12 carries and 25 targets. To put that in perspective: that kind of target workload would rank him at the top of the NFL in targets per game…and he gets to add some carries on top of that. Eventually, this torrid rate of usage is going to slow down, but there is no reason to expect this week – in a likely shootout – to be the week it happens.

I am fine leaving the rest of this Packers backfield alone, given the uncertain usage (and talent) of Knile Davis and Don Jackson – but that is not the end of our interest on this side of the ball.

Randall Cobb has exploded lately for target totals of 15, 11, and 11 over the last three weeks, and especially if Desmond Trufant shadows Jordy Nelson on the outside, Cobb should see lots of looks once again.

Jordy is the one guy I am not particularly interested in (though I won’t try to talk you off him, if you like him), as we have mentioned time and again this year that he does not have the same burst he once possessed, and is not getting the sort of separation he used to get. His targets have dropped lately as well, with only one game in the last four with more than seven looks. Jordy certainly has a shot at being a fine play in this one, though there are other spots where I would rather pay up.

While I plan to leave Jordy alone, I do not mind the other outside receiver – Davante Adams – as a tourney play. Adams saw 16 targets last week, after seeing 13 total targets in his previous three games combined. More than likely, that sort of usage was fluky, but Davante has been long on talent and short on execution for a while, and given that Davante actually caught 13 of his 16 targets last week (something we would never have envisioned!), and given that Jordy may be trailed by Trufant, we could actually see Davante with a high level of usage once again. This is certainly not something I would want to risk a double-up or head-to-head entry chasing, but the upside is there in tourneys.

Favorite cash game plays: Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Devonta Freeman, Ty Montgomery, Julio Jones, Randall Cobb

Favorite tourney plays: All of the above, plus: Mohamed Sanu, Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams

What Our Experts Are Saying (NFL Premium)

Below you will find a couple of teasers from our Premium selections. We have a lot of content available for subscribers each week, including Consensus Value Rankings, in-depth slate writeups, cheat sheets, positional spotlights, and much more.

FanDuel – Notorious’ Cheat Sheet

Quarterback

DraftKings – ChrisGimino’s Correlations

Favorite Plays from the Week 8 Rankings

1. Georgia Dome Fireworks: Matt Ryan / Devonta Freeman / Julio Jones

This triple stack of Falcons goodness is an attempt to capture all the touchdowns and a nice chunk of the overall offensive production. Vegas has pinned a healthy total of 27.75 to the Falcons highly efficient offense (ranked second in DVOA) and the market share for Freeman is about to move in the right direction sans Tevin Coleman. We all know what Julio can do, and it doesn’t take a vivid imagination to see how all three could have huge games in the same lineup. You might even consider tacking on a Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, or Ty Montgomery here to make it a full game stack. If you’re feeling really confident, add TWO.