The Fantasy Grout, Week 4 - Two Rounders Things
Rounders is, of course, an iconic poker movie detailing Mike McDermott’s journey through the New York poker landscape. I’ve got two things about it, I wanted to cover.
We all know how that last hand plays out. Mike flops a straight and checks it down. Teddy KGB pressures on every street, including a completely unnecessary “all in” on the river, despite assuming a missed draw, and Mike calls.
From there, KGB gets flustered, Mike needles him a bit, and KGB admits “He beat me, straight up. Pay him. Pay that man his money.” Then, this.
I’m not going to say this ruins the movie. The movie is too good. But, this is a major problem. Why you ask? Well, let’s go back a little bit. First, there was that scene in the bathroom at the strip club.
Grama: “Here’s what I’m thinkin’. Instead of you owing fifteen grand, spread out to five guys, you owe twenty-five to me.”
Worm: “Where the fuck do you get off? Twenty-five grand?”
G: (Punches him in the gut multiple times.) “Here’s how it is. Twenty-five grand and the juice is still runnin’.”
W: “Jesus Christ. The fuck are you doin’ man? You were my partner.”
G: “No, no, no. I was your lackey. But I learned a few things, Worm. I consolidated your outstanding debt.”
W: “Where’d you get the scratch for that? You’ve been rollin’ fags in the village again.”
G: (Gives him another punch to the gut) “Still a wise-ass. Unbelievable. What I did was go partners with an old friend of yours. Teddy KGB backed me.”
W: “Bullshit. Bullshit. Teddy’s got plenty of goons. Why would he put you under his flag?”
G: “Cause as soon as he heard your name, he became real excited for the prospect.”
W: “What, so you bought me up, Grama?”
G: “Yeah, got a real sweet deal too. Thirty cents on the dollar. There’s not a lot of faith in you out there in the business community.”
W: “Great. So you’re a banker now, Grama. That’s really classy.”
G: “Not exactly. I don’t have to tell you my collection methods.”
W: ”God. Alright. Look. Take it easy, alright. I’ll scrape something together. I’ll come, and I’ll find you this week.”
G: “Yeah. That’s just what I figured. So I’m going take what you got on you right now.”
W: “Here fine, fine.” (Gives money.) “Have yourself a ball.”
G: (Finds more in another pocket. Hits him in the stomach again. Leaves with $10,000)
Alright, Worm’s into Grama & Teddy KGB for $15,000. Then, there’s this scene:
Mike: (Holding Grama off of Worm.) “No, no. Listen, listen, listen, listen. He’s good for it. He’s good for it, alright? He’s good for it.”
Grama: He’s good for it, Mike? If you think he’s good for it, then it’s on you too.”
M: “Then, it’s on me too.”
G: “Fifteen large, five days or I start breaking things.”
Well, the debt is now Mike’s as well. After Worm splits, and Mike gets $10,000 from Professor Petrovsky, we have this scene at cage of Teddy’s underground casino:
Teddy KGB: “So, you have my money?”
Mike: “I owe you that money tomorrow, right?”
KGB: “Yeah.”
M: “Still mine.”
KGB: “For the next eight hours, it is yours. But, if you don’t have it all by then, then you are mine.”
M: “Well … I got ten thousand dollars. I’m looking for a game.”
We know what happens from there. Mike wins the first heads-up match, turning his $10,000 into $20,000. KGB goads him into continuing to play, and Mike tells Teddy to “reload at any time.” Mike spots his tell, riles him, and eventually runs his stack up to over $30,000, heading into that last hand.
Now, rather than focusing on the last hand, we’re going to discuss Grama’s banking business a bit. He says he got $0.30 on the $1, meaning he paid $4,500 to consolidate $15,000 in debt, presumably with money borrowed from Teddy. Then, after he meets Worm at the strip club, he collects $10,000. He’s already in the black on the deal! Finally, Mike walks into Teddy’s with $10,000, still owing $15,000.
Presumably, Teddy playing poker isn’t part of the loan shark business. Mike is just playing Teddy with his money, yet, against Teddy and his money. One of two things is going to happen:
Option A – Mike is going to win and pay back the $15,000 with it. Grama collects, and get his share of the money. Rich, old Teddy KGB, his business partner, loses at poker. Not the first time. Won’t be the last. Either way, Grama paid $4,500 for the debt and collected $25,000. His share is going to be nice.
Option B – Mike is going to lose. Teddy KGB has a nice little poker score of $10,000 and now Grama has to commit murder, without collecting the $15,000. Even if the consequence is just a severe beat-down and Grama still eventually collecting the $15,000, he now has to wait on collecting the money.
So I ask you this. Why was Grama rooting for Teddy KGB? Option A is clearly better for him. He doesn’t have to overtly root for Mike, but he shouldn’t be mad when he wins either. That poor chair was flipped for no reason!
This last Friday, at just before 6 pm central, I reached into my gym short pockets and found no car keys. I was standing in the “parking lot” (a farmer’s field), having just gotten off the last shuttle for the evening. I was supposed to get into my car, drive to a buddy’s hotel room (Thanks Doc!), and do The Friday Night DFS Live with Dean. Instead, I hopped back into the shuttle to go back to the camp to look for my keys.
You see, I was at Nine Mile Forest Recreation Area for a Ragnar Trail Race. The “camp,” where we slept (sporadically) and where the trails were located, was three miles from the parking, and I didn’t want to get stranded at the parking area. Once I got back, I checked the two places where I had sat down and had no luck finding my keys. Ultimately, FNL went on without a Ball of Oil.
I eventually found my keys. They fell out of my pocket right when I got out of my car, earlier that day. Looking backward, I feel nothing but a cascading waterfall of regret. I’m filled with ifs:
If I had not taken the last shuttle out to the parking area, I would have been able to check by my car before returning to camp. I would have missed the first shuttle back, but that would have been okay, as there would have been more to come.
If I had arrived to the race earlier, I would have been comfortable taking an earlier shuttle. As it was, I missed my team’s start, so I wanted to at least see everyone a little, before I left.
If I hadn’t spent some so much time trying to find a place to do the show, I would have been able to make the race start. I ended up making 30 calls to hotels, restaurants, libraries, universities, and even a gas station.
If I had done my show prep before Friday, I wouldn’t have had to do it prior to making calls to find a location.
The point of all of all of this? Just to note that, as usual, Mike McD was totally right: Always leave yourself outs.
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
Deadspin called a smart guy winning the Millionaire Maker suspicious. One SwaguarsFan shouted out another one, for his Terrelle Pryor love. The running back carnage was severe. Oh, and JMToWin lost our challenge worse than I did.
Now, let’s shuffle up and deal a new week!
$6,500-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End
YADA, YADA
The deck is stacked with value tight end options this week. None feel like the nuts, but you could see any of them sucking out for a big week.
Hunter Henry, $2,700 VS NO – You either believe the metrics through three weeks, that say New Orleans has become a veritable force versus opposing tight ends (Walford, the 2 Giants Guys, and Tamme combined for 12 catches for under 100 yards), or you believe the Saints will revert to last year’s form. That is, a tight end turnstile.
I guess it doesn’t have to be an either or thing. I’m in the middle.
Coby Fleener, $3,200 AT SD – I’m not sure if he’s pulling off the reverse Samson, but I will say we have a one-week data point in support of a freshly shorn Fleener possessing skills above-and-beyond mere mortal tight ends (7-for-109-and-1). The Chargers have ceded at least 4 for at least 65 to a tight end every week this year, and now Manti Te’o is on the IR, IRL. It suffices to say the 6-foot 6-inch Fleener has more upside than other cheap tight ends.
Zach Miller, $2,700 VS DET – The Lions have played in 6% of the NFL games this year, and given up 16% of the tight end touchdowns. The reason for the flood of TE TDs, is them not having a (DeAndre) Levy to stop it. Levy is expected to miss Week 4 against the Bears.
What’s left in Dallas:
Cole Beasley, $3,900 AT SF
Terrance Williams, $3,100 AT SF
Brice Butler, $3,000 AT SF
With Dez Bryant out (confirm this Sunday morning), there is a target void in the Cowboy’s passing attack. I feel confident in Beasley’s low adot volume. I feel confident in Butler’s athleticism. I feel confident in Terrance Williams fighting for every yard, even if it costs him the game.
What I don’t feel confident in? The best play on Dallas this week. Super Cool Beas is probably the safest bet in full point-per-reception. I’m intrigued by Butler’s talent, but concerned about his usage. Williams? Nahwave.gif.
Jamison Crowder, $4,200 VS CLE – Like Beasley, but with the most Boston sounding name in history. Oh, and more red zone equity.
Tyrell Williams, $4,400 VS NO – Out-snapping (101-89) and out-targeting (15-13) Travis Benjamin the last two weeks, for $1,500 cheaper. That said, let’s hope New Orleans still thinks Benjamin is the “#1”.
Week 1: A. Cooper 6-for-137 / M. Crabtree 7-for-87 + 2-point conversion
Week 2: O. Beckham 8-for-86 / S. Shepard 8-for-117
Week 3: J. Jones 1-for-16 / M. Sanu 3-for-31
Orleans Darkwa, $3,000 AT MIN – Usually I’d be all for a starting running back at minimum price whose name sounds like some sort sex act with the lights off and beads on. It is just hard for me to recommend anyone against the Vikings defense right now. Is he worth a dart in a stars-and-scrubs tournament lineup? As they say in Minnesota, Yah sure ya betcha.
LeGarrette Blount, $5,000 VS BUF – What are they going to do? Let their non-existent quarterback throw it? When the NFL’s rush yardage leader is $5,000 or less, you have to consider playing him, even if he’s more likely to catch a buzz than catch a pass.
Joe Flacco, $5,900 VS OAK – A non-exhaustive list of Joes I’d start against the current Oakland pass defense:
Montana, Namath, Theismann, Torre, DiMaggio, Manganiello, Biden, Francis, Fatone, Camel, and GI.
(Also, as a side note, Joey Fatone being the “Fat One” among former Nsync members is the sort of word play that makes my heart happy.)
This is more of a low ownership, tournament flyer. Running Flacco out there with Pitta + Wallace, and pairing them with Cooper + Crabtree, pretty much ensures that if that game shoots out, you’re finishing in the Top 5% of Millionaire Maker lineups.
TIGHT END
Kyle Rudolph, $3,400 VS NYG – I’m playing Thursday, just to have him active in my lineups on Monday. Now, to my near weekly ritual of calling on Scott Barrett to describe something better than I can.
You see opportunity for Stefon Diggs? I see opportunity for the 2nd most targeted tight end in the NFL, who runs patterns in the same general vicinity.
WIDE RECEIVER
Terrelle Pryor Sr., $4,300 AT WAS – Talk about leaving yourself outs! Even if he flops as a receiver (despite being seventh in the NFL in targets), he can run one in or throw one in to save his day. If you’re into chasing dreams, he’s got the best shot in the entire NFL of doing all three, on the same play. (The royal flush of fantasy!)
I called him the Last Man Standing in the Browns offense last week. While that was technically correct, the gif was all wrong. He’s not stumbling, barely hanging on. More like this:
RUNNING BACK
Isaiah Crowell, $4,400 AT WAS – I know, I know, I know. Starting a back as a 7-point underdog isn’t fashionable. A Browns back, no less. I’m not suggesting you tell your friends about it. I’m just saying you can start the guy with the 13th most rushes this year, and at least 15 touches in every game, against a team that has allowed SIX rushing touchdowns in the first three weeks, for under $4,500. It’ll be our little secret.
Jordan Howard, $3,700 VS DET – This game is loaded with value plays. The thing that excites me the most is how the Bears have targeted their running backs 18 times in the first three weeks, including six to Howard last week. Like red wine with a nice steak, he pairs well with the Lions’ seventh most receptions allowed to running backs. In a coin flip game, you want your punt running back to be game flow independent.
Look, there are worse decisions you can make than rostering a guy named “Jordan” in Chicago.
QUARTERBACK
Kirk Cousins, $6,500 VS CLE
After Week 1 – Colin Cowherd lumped him in with Blaine Gabbert and Case Keenum.
After Week 2 – Joe House thanked him for producing a Dandruff Game, because House could now brush off the Dead Skins.
After Week 3 – Ryan Tanne…er…Brit Devine bragged about correctly picking a kicker to take advantage of Cousins’ red zone failures.
During those 3 Weeks – Cousins was 79 of 124, good for 63.7% completions and 7.98 yards per attempt. Certainly his 3:3 TD:INT Ratio leaves something to be desired, but that is what you get when you target Jamison Crowder seven times in the red zone, the third highest red zone target total in the NFL.
After Week 4 – Cousins will have gone HAMette.
All of Cleveland’s defensive metrics will have worsened (9th most pass yards allowed, 4th most passing scores allowed, 8th most points allowed, currently). Browns fans, still drunk from the NBA finals, will have hardly noticed what happened. I will have asked my boys in an elevated volume if They liked that. They will have stared at me, confused by the question.
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
Kevin White, $3,400 VS DET – I wanted to write 1,100-or-so words about White. Here’s the first 1,000.
Yeah, he caught that.
Anyway, the 2015 seventh overall pick is finally healthy. He’s leading Alshon Jeffery in targets (6-7-7 to White’s (7-6-14). In fact, he’s leading all but 14 NFL players in that category. That shouldn’t change against the Lions, who line up Darius Slay against #1 WRs and a traffic cone against #2s.
You can do the math that says “At that volume, it is nearly impossible for him not to hit ‘value’ of 3 PT/$K,” which is fine. The thing I like is his potential to hit 10 PT/$K. Don’t take my word for it though. Mrs. McCallister, who do you think will lead the NFL in value this week?
