The Fantasy Grout, Week 3 - That Deadspin Article
Previously On The Fantasy Grout
We made it home, barely. We also discussed Neal Sterling, the man, not the athlete, recommended Blaine Gabbert on purpose, and lost the JMToLose challenge. Here’s last week, here’s the results, and it’s getting hot in herre. That’s really just because I like to keep the thermostat at 74ish.
That Deadspin Article
Really? No one?
/Googles “Al Zeidenfeld Deadspin Response”/
Nothing
/Googles “Al Smizzle Deadspin Rebuttal”/
Nada
Really? Alright, I got this one. I know Dan Back covered it on his podcast, but for the hearing impaired community and for those that might be marooned in a library, here’s a written version.
I’m not going to call Deadspin itself bad. I’m not even going to say they don’t do journalism, because they do. They have sources, and they vet information. They certainly cover things that the mainstream media doesn’t consider news. Also, they pay their sources, which is a bit of a gray area. Regardless, they report stuff.
The fact that they have the sensibility of a 11-year old, believing all vulgarity and profanity is value added, is concerning, but not a deal-breaker either. That’s why I wasn’t mad, as much as I was disappointed in their piece on Al Zeidenfeld’s $1,000,000 victory last Sunday (9/18). But, really I was mad too.
This sentence, in particular, gets me.
It’s at least curious that the winner of DraftKings’ flagship contest is someone paid to give advice to his ostensible competitors, but a Draftkings contractor raking in a big prize is an unwelcome callback to last year’s controversies.
It’s not curious. It’s the simplest thing in the world. Oh, I see why they pay him to help bring the uninformed masses up-to-speed. He’s good at this. The “optics” should be overwhelmingly positive, as DraftKings is paying someone to give out his secrets, weekly, so the over-matched can compete. Frankly, that’s just what he did, giving out 6 of his 9 players in print, prior to the tournament.
Instead, the author references “last year’s controversies,” and goes on to bring up EthanGate, again. I should note that he doesn’t bring up all of the “scandal,” as he neglects to mention that Ethan Haskell was cleared of any wrong-doing by an independent law firm. Nope. He just insinuates non-existent fraud and moves on. The author makes sure to use the term “Insider Trading” as well, because, well, no one is clicking on an article about a mole hill.
In addition to all the subjective decisions the author made, he also included flat-out inaccuracies, such as his references to Corey Coleman and Stefon Diggs in this paragraph:
Mass entry DFS contests are won and lost with sleepers that vastly exceed their expected production, the way Diggs and Corey Coleman did for Zeidenfeld this week. If you are aware of lineup data before you pick your team, you have advance knowledge of which players will give you a higher relative advantage should they score.
(Note – Zeidenfeld owned Corey Coleman in 0 of his 150 tournament lineups and Diggs in one more than that, thanks only to a late in the day swap-out.)
Beyond the inaccuracies is the insinuation that Zeidenfeld had advance knowledge of ownership. Otherwise, why mention it? Further, in a field of over 250,000, every base is going to be covered. You just need to have the best score. I’m surprised the author didn’t insinuate that DraftKings actually knew who was going to score touchdowns that week, and told Zeidenfeld.
Here’s the truth. DraftKings wants to give average players a chance, which is why they pay good players to give away their information. If DraftKings exclusively chose people who didn’t play DFS, there wouldn’t be an “optics issues,” but also the masses wouldn’t be getting much credible help. That Zeidenfeld was able to win lends credibility to the fact that DraftKings is trying to help.
Then again, who would want to read an article about DraftKings helping the less informed when they can read an article about tweeted out buttholes.
Deadspin, do better.
The Fantasy Grout
Texxdogg & dethdealers took it down last week. Holla.
Yes, you do. You know the drill. Let’s roll.
$6,500-or-less – Quarterback
$5,500-or-less – Running Back
$5,000-or-less – Wide Receiver
$4,000-or-less – Tight End
YADA, YADA
Trey Burton, $2,500 VS PIT & Hunter Henry, $2,500 AT IND – A couple of young guys who should have great opportunities thanks to injuries to Zach Ertz and Antonio Gates. A single 5-yard TD is worth 3 PT/$K at the tight end minimum salary, and I like them both to score this week. Neither guy probably carries the upside to justify a play in tournaments, but in cash, definitely worth a consideration.
Plus, if Burton scores, it’ll make my Boss Happy. Go Gata
Tajae Sharpe, $4,700 VS OAK – See: Mariota, Marcus below.
Terrelle Pryor Sr., $3,400 AT MIA – In the Pryor game, Terrelle had 10 targets, and now the only other player that had more than five is out (C. Coleman). It’s really a “last man standing” situation. With the Browns being down to their third-string quarterback and with Pryor being fairly raw, it won’t always be pretty. But the last man standing is still standing.
And, he stands to be a pretty good play.
THE CARNAGE
That sound you hear? It’s rhythmic. It’s loud. It doesn’t seem to stop. That’s the sound of all the Zero RB touts patting themselves on the back, all at once. It’s only Week 2, and already one quarter of the league’s running backs (8) left with injury this past week. For all the concussion justice warriors though, here’s the list of injuries (in order of time out): D Woodhead (Season – ACL), A. Abdullah (Season, likely – Foot), A. Peterson (Multiple Months – MCL), D. Martin (3 Weeks – Hamstring), J. Stewart (2-3 Weeks – Hamstring), A. Foster (1 Week, Maybe – Groin), R. Jennings (May Play Sunday – Hand), and T. Rawls (May Play Sunday – Leg Contusion). Nary a knock on the noggin.
What this will do is open up a lot of value at running back, and not just value, but likely value with some ownership spread, thanks to the sheer quantity of discount options. We just have to pick the right one! Let’s go in reverse order of Week 3 desirability.
INJURED: Danny Woodhead, $5,400 AT IND.
REPLACE WITH: Really no one beyond Melvin Gordon. Rookie Kenneth Farrow is the minimum, $3,000 while off-the-street scatback Dexter McCluster is less than that at $Unavailable. With his salary set at $300 over the Grout price threshold, MGIII is a great option for some other article to discuss.
INJURED: Jonathan Stewart, $4,800 VS MIN
REPLACE WITH: That sound you hear when the first heave of a vomit session commences. Sure Cameron Artis-Payne has a nice price, $3,000 and an even nicer short-hand acronym, CAP. That doesn’t change the fact that Fozzy ($3,800) and Mike Tolbert ($3,000) are both waiting to waka waka one in from the one. And, that’s only if Cam doesn’t.
Also, the Minnesota run defense followed up a D. Murray / D. Henry 16-for-45 (2.81) beating with a E. Lacy / J. Starks 19-for-53 (2.79) stomp out. You’d sit Stewart; why play the inferior backs behind him on the depth chart?
INJURED: Arian Foster, $5,500 VS CLE
REPLACE WITH: Jay Ajayi, $4,000. I’d feel better if word comes out that the former dog house dweller is now top dog. Foster is a long shot, but not ruled out yet, and rookie Kenyan Drake ($3,600) actually got the first touch after Foster went down. The matchup is plush, as a near 10-point favorite at home against the Browns.
Here. Listen to this. If you can take anything discernable from it, share it in the comments. All I hear are Rihanna’s lyrics that aren’t “Work, work, work, work, work.”
INJURED: Thomas Rawls, $5,500 VS SF
REPLACE WITH: Look. I know Christine Michael ($5,000) has looked much better. Like much f*cking better. But the PC answer is still Rawls. PC, as in Pete Carroll. In a Monday statement that started with this,
“Really well. [Michael] hit it really well. He looks like he shot out of a cannon. He’s really quick. He’s just getting going. I think he’s really going to get better and more efficient. He had the unfortunate turnover, but other than that he really hit it really well. He must be averaging 5 yards a carry or something. First two games, that’s pretty good.”
Carroll concluded with this.
“We need to get [Rawls] out there, stay out there, get a feel for the game and start to feel the effect that he brings. I think that’s part of what we kind of anticipated, seeing his input and complement Christine, who is doing a nice job. I think it’s going to be a nice one-two punch, we just have to get him back out there.”
Even if you could Jedi mind trick Carroll into flipping their roles, it’s hard to justify the slightly bigger half of a timeshare, at $5,000. Unfortunately, his price is still showing some lingering symptoms of his Week 1 bout with Chalkitis. A nasty case of it, really.
But if Rawls sits Sunday, expect a full-on Chalkitis relapse!
INJURED: Rashad Jennings, $5,100 VS WAS
REPLACE WITH: Shane Vereen, $3,700. Like Rawls, Jennings likely will play, so “replace” is more of a recommendation to Ben McAdoo and the Giants coaching staff. Jennings has put up 102 on 31 totes, good for 3.29 YPC. He has three measly receptions so far this season, and given his current plaster glove fashion statement, I’d take the under on his 1.5 reception per game average versus Washington.
Vereen, on the other … well … hand, is interesting. He trails Jennings by only two offensive snaps on the year, 66-64. He’s good for three grabs a game, and actually got 14 carries in Week 2. In a scant nine snaps last week (against Vereen’s opponent this week, Washington), Lance Dunbar had 3 carries and 2 grabs, for over 5 DraftKings points. Both receiving backs are cut from the same cloth, though Vereen’s thread count is certainly higher. Looking for a sneaky GPP play this week? Vereen’s got you … covered.
INJURED: Ameer Abdullah, $4,800 AT GB
REPLACE WITH: Theo Riddick, $4,900, for now*. Green Bay smothered the Viking run game, to the tune of 20 total carries for 35 yards and then went full-on Ivan Drago on AP. Before that, they were the artist behind TJ Yeldon’s 1.86 YPC in Week 1. They are stout.
But Riddick’s receiving skills work around that. On 10 targets this season, he has hauled in 9 for 91, including a score. Abdullah chipped in 5-for-57 and a score as well. In James Robert Cooter’s dink-and-dunk offense, targeting backs is not an accident. Also, given this game’s team total, the third highest this week, it’s a terrible idea to play Riddick. Then again, his name phonetically backward is “kidder”.
*- For now, because Dwayne Washington is lurking.
Player A – 6’ 1”, 224 lbs. 4.50 40-yard dash. 94th percentile SPARQ. Former Wide Receiver
Player B – 6’ 2”, 226 lbs. 4.44 40-yard dash. 76th percentile SPARQ. Former Wide Receiver.
Yes, Theo Riddick is currently being backed up by a David Johnson (Player A) clone. Beware.
To round out the injury carnage, … just hold your horses a second!
Blaine Gabbert, $5,000 AT SEA – Is Gabbert written here just for me to gloat that he went for 22.72 on a minimum salary last week, good for over 4.5 PT/$K and much better than Dak in Week 1? Nooooooooo (in a way that totally means “yes”.)
Seriously though. This week, on the road against Seattle, Noooooooooo (in a much more literal sense).
Marcus Mariota, $5,900 VS OAK – Oakland is setting records in defensive failure. Through their first two games, they’ve given up more yards than any team since the merger, and they’re also the first team to ever allow 500+ yards in their first two games. They’re having a yard sale and each chunk is priced to go.
Mariota has been inconsistent in his first two games, looking very pedestrian against Minnesota before bouncing back against the Lions. He still checks so many boxes:
□ At Home
□ Great Matchup
□ Ability to Run
□ Backs in the Pass Game
□ Alliterative Name that Lends Itself to Puns.
It’s so sweet. M.M.mmmmmmm.
TIGHT END
Dwayne Allen, $3,800 VS SD – Luck is going to need a “big body” to throw to in the red zone. With Moncrief out with a broken shoulder and his own shoulder putting his accuracy into question, the bigger the body, the better. Enter Dwayne “The Rock” Allen and his 6’3”, 265 lb. frame.
Compared to last year, Allen is running routes on a much higher percentage of plays, and * knock on wood *, he’s much less injured. The Rock could easily go for two scores in the game with the second highest total for the week, if you smell what I’m cookin’.
WIDE RECEIVER
Will Fuller V, $4,800 AT NE – Really? Still? I’ll hand it to FanDuel, they certainly are a lot more reactive to performance and ownership than DraftKings. Oh well. Their loss is the Grout’s gain.
Sometimes someone says something better than you can. In those cases, you can say it worse anyway or quote them. Here’s me using the latter strategy, with a tweet from @ScottBarrettDFB.
Crazy. Sexy.
PHILLIP DORSETT, $4,400 VS SD – Listen, we don’t only recommend big-bodied pass catchers. We are open to all bodies here in the Fantasy Grout (as long as they have gotten a change in role that is more valuable than their salary would indicate). Dorsett fits that mold, as he has a body, and likely 6-10 targets available to him, at under $4.5K.
RUNNING BACK
INJURED: Adrian Peterson, $6,700 AT CAR
REPLACE WITH: Jerick McKinnon, $3,800. Sometimes you just bet on talent, and if you bet on talent, you bet on Jet. He has a career average of 4.9 YPC on a team that is trying to hide its quarterback. Sunday marks the takeoff.
The only thing stopping me from being All Systems Go is the match-up with Carolina, on the road. The Panthers snuffed out Carlos Hyde last week, and as 7-point underdogs, the Vikings could be forced to eject on Jet.
One thing I’m not worried about is Matt Asiata. After tweeting about Peterson’s surgery, it took just a couple minutes for Coach Zimmer to announce, via the Viking twitter account, that McKinnon was the guy. Speaking of Twitter. When asked how you took down that Week 3 tournament, what are the odds you cite McKinnon’s Twitter handle followed by the words “it for me”?
INJURED: Doug Martin, $5,700 VS LA
REPLACE WITH: Charles Sims, $4,900. What more do I need to say. Here’s a Week 1 image I stole from Dave Richard, which was captioned “Here’s Charles Sims after catching a pass last Sunday. He scored seconds later.”
And that matchup. Ooh LA LA. Carlos Hyde nuked them in Week 1 and Michael went 10-for-60 most recently.
The only thing that gives me pause is HC Dirk Koetter’s statement that backup Jacquizz Rodgers is “more similar to Doug Martin than Sims.” I still think Sims gets the first crack, but I worry ever-so-slightly about the leash with Koetter’s former binkie backing up.
Still. Look at that picture again.
QUARTERBACK
Blake Bortles, $6,500 VS BAL – I don’t make the prices, okay. I just take advantage of them. I don’t have the foggiest clue how Blake Bortles’ price slipped down into the Grout. I just know it’s a Get him while he’s hot situation.
You can pencil me in among the doubters regarding Baltimore’s defense. Even if Ray Lewis and Ed Reed suit up on Sunday, you’d still have to consider Bortles with those weapons and that price. The Loud Dinosaur specifically, with his 12 grabs on 16 targets just takes de facto rushes and pads Bortles passing stats with them. Then, when you consider the all-ins, I’m Allen. Errr, nevermind. You get it.
And, even if things don’t go his way to start and the Ravens jump out to an early lead, you might as well call him a Ketchup Bortle, cause he’s got no problem amassing gaudy numbers playing from behind.
MY GROUT FOR A SHOUT
EDITOR’S NOTE – At 11:00 Sunday, it came out that Matt Asiata was starting for Minnesota. Man, if you can’t trust a team’s official Twitter account (which tweeted Jet was starting), who can you trust?
New #GfaS – Three Burton.