TJ's Top Tournament Takes for MLB DFS on FanDuel - September 6th
TJ Zwarych is one of the top up-and-coming Daily Fantasy Sports players in the world, and recently qualified for FanDuel’s World Fantasy Baseball Championship Live Final in Chicago. Not only is he a long-time RotoGrinders member with multiple 6-figure DFS wins, but he is also the Editor-In-Chief of TV & Film media outlet the Agents of Fandom and host of their podcast. A few times per week, TJ will be giving his top tournament takes for FanDuel to help you take down tournaments.
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September 6th
It’s a new month, and we have a new format for the article! I’m freshly married, just starting up a new year of teaching, and this week I head to Chicago for FanDuel’s World Fantasy Baseball Championship Live Final. In addition to the tournament and festivities, the chance to meet longtime RotoGrinders experts SquirrelPatrol, Krayton, Drizzy, and Meansy will be a blast. However, I assume most of you don’t care much about my past few weeks or what I’m doing in the future; we want to talk about what is going on tonight! Let’s dive into the slate…
Top Tournament Pitchers on FanDuel
Gerrit Cole is the top projected play on the board, and Joe Ryan was one of my favorite tournament pivots. However, they’re also in the worst weather game on the slate according to Roth’s Report. Therefore, we’re going to have to look for some different places to pivot. Shane Bieber and Framber Valdez look like the next two best options. However, they are also projecting to be rostered at the highest clip on the board tonight. If I’m choosing one of the two, it’s likely Shane Bieber. He has looked great as of late, with quality starts in every one of his outings in the last two months. Thankfully, with 12 games on the slate, we have plenty of options if we’re looking to differentiate.
Kyle Wright at OAK ($10,600) – Wright is a pitcher I typically prefer playing against right-handed heavy teams due to his power-suppression and ground ball ability to that side of the plate. However, outside of Seth Brown, Oakland’s lefties don’t pose much of a threat. In addition, Wright has been striking out lefties even more than righties this year, to a tune of a 25.1% clip. With Wright heading to an Oakland ballpark that is one of the best in the league for pitchers, he provides a nice combination of safety and upside that I’ll be looking to get to in tournaments.
Brandon Woodruff at COL ($10,000) – The only negative going for Brandon Woodruff tonight happens to be that he’s playing in Coors Field. As he’s a flyball pitcher, this play isn’t for the faint of heart. However, while the danger is prevalent with Woodruff, the upside is arguably the highest on the slate. The 24.3% strikeout rate for Colorado’s projected lineup is one of the highest on the board tonight, and Woodruff has shown at times this year his ability to mow down opponents when he’s on. I will repeat: this play isn’t for the faint of heart. And I wouldn’t be locking him in for big money in a single-entry tournament. However, as we’re projecting less than 2% of the field to be playing Woodruff tonight, he makes for a great option to sprinkle in and easily get over the field if you’re playing multiple lineups.
Mike Mayers vs Detroit ($5,800) – On a one-pitcher site like FanDuel, it’s not often you want to put all your chips in the basket of a cheap, risky pitcher like Mayers, especially on a large slate like tonight. However, when I see someone that sparks my interest, there is a specific strategy I like to consider. I don’t really care about their point-per-dollar score. If a 6k pitcher can get me 30 points, while that looks fantastic on a point-per-dollar basis, it doesn’t mean squat if there are aces on the slate putting up 60. Tonight, the top pitcher is likely to be rained out, Valdez doesn’t boast a particularly high ceiling and so on and so forth. I have the most fear trying to dodge Bieber tonight, as I think he’s the most likely pitcher to put up a 45-50 point night. With only one pitcher whose raw points I’m particularly worried about, I’m interested in shooting my shot with a cheap pitcher like Mayers. Both Wright and Bieber haven’t flashed 60-point ceilings much this year, so even if they play well, I’m not particularly worried about them breaking the slate. Facing the worst lineup in the league against right-handed pitching, Mayers may still go overlooked due to his poor surface numbers. His underlying metrics and 4.14 SIERA suggest positive regression, and a Tigers team with a 26.3% strikeout rate should be the place that it comes.
Top Tournament Stacks on FanDuel
We can’t get into the different stacks on this slate without addressing the elephant in Colorado which is the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers mega chalk coming in from Coors Field can’t be ignored, and while they project phenomenally, we will look for some tournament pivots. I don’t think you need to fully fade Milwaukee today in tournaments; however, it’ll be necessary to differentiate at pitcher in lineups we want to load up on Brewers (enter Brandon Woodruff and Mike Mayers).
Los Angeles Dodgers – We have 24 teams playing tonight, and only 2 have a total over 5. The two teams are the Dodgers and Brewers, who are both sitting at totals over 6, or close to it (the Dodgers have recently dropped to slightly below). While the Brewers have the better matchup and the added benefit of playing in Coors Field, they are also being rostered at double the clip of the Dodgers tonight. Whether it’s Tyler Rogers, Jarlin Garcia or whomever from the Giants bullpen, I’m all in on the Dodgers as a full stack pivot off the Brewers in great hitting weather.
Atlanta Braves – The Braves strike out a lot, but they also hit for a TON of power. Tonight, they face a pitcher in Cole Irvin with a 17.8% strikeout rate, and I love the potential upside. Irving has a 44% hard-hit rate against right-handed bats and although the ballpark favors pitchers, that shouldn’t matter to players like Austin Riley who has a .398 ISO vs left-handed pitching this season. Add in Acuna, Swanson, both catchers and Grissom, and you have a plethora of high-power right-handed bats at your disposal for a stack.
Toronto Blue Jays – The Jays are one of the streakiest teams in baseball, and I like to make sure I’m paying attention when they start hitting the ball well. They’re a team full of power hitters, and one of the rare groups that despite being largely right-handed, actually hit righties better than they do lefties. Tonight, they face a right-handed pitcher in Kyle Bradish who has aggressive reverse splits early on in his career. So far this season, Bradish is giving up a .210 ISO and a 44% hard-hit rate to right-handed batters. Tonight, he will be facing dual power and contact threats like Vladimir Guerrero Jr and George Springer while players such as Bo Bichette and Teoscar Hernandez are in the midst of power sprees. The Brewers are the top team tonight, but stacks like the Blue Jays have the potential to match the upside while being rostered at a significantly lower rate.