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Cooper Hummel scratched Wednesday

Cooper Hummel scratched Wednesday

Which Teams Smash the Slate More Than 20% of the Time in Simulations?

With just a six game slate on DraftKings, both the Yankees and Cubs project for more than 20% stack ownership, a bit higher than the Blue Jays, who split the two in terms of team run totals because the former two lineups both include some cheaper bats to offset top projected hitters. Things are a bit more spread out on FanDuel (eight games), where the Yankees project to be most popular (14.2%). Both the Yankees and Jays are smashing the slate in simulations a bit more often than 20% of the time on either site with the Angels (at Texas with Dane Dunning) the only other team reaching double digits. Several teams reach double digit Value% projections on either site with the Blue Jays the only team reaching 20% on FanDuel. Expensive pitching may make top offenses great leverage plays as well. To find out which teams stand out in terms of potential leverage, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Where You Can Find Plenty of Value Among Top Offenses

Players should be in the market for value bats tonight, considering the price of pitching, and they may be able to find a few in one of the top lineups on the board. At least according to sportsbooks, who have installed the Cubs with a 4.42 implied run line that’s third best on the slate tonight. Conditions currently appears to be pitcher friendly (though not overwhelmingly so) with cool temperatures (below 60 degrees) and a light wind blowing in from left or maybe more across the field. We also aren’t sure who’ll be pitching for the Pirates. Wil Crowe will be starting, but is likely just an opener. Maybe for Mitch Keller? Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA since last year against the former. What we do know is that two Chicago Cubs project as top three point per dollar values on either site and that’s because neither Rafael Ortega (131 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since LY), nor Aflonso Rivas (140 wRC+, .160 ISO) cost more than $2.6K on either site tonight. This makes a top half of the order stack with top overall projected bats Ian Happ (112 wRC+, .205 ISO) and Willson Contreras (109 wRC+, .180 ISO) much easier to accomplish with room left over for pitching tonight. Happ ($3.8K) is actually a top 10 value projection on DraftKings, along with Frank Schwindel (115 wRC+, .182 ISO).

The only other team with multiple top 10 projected values by PlateIQ on DK tonight is the top of the board Yankees (4.75 implied runs). Adding Joey Gallo (126 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Jose Trevino (73 wRC+, .114 ISO) at much cheaper costs might help out with those Judge, Rizzo, Stanton stacks against Jordan Lyles (batters from either side of the plate above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA since last year).

On FanDuel, a couple of Pirates on the other side of that Wrigely matchup project as top values, despite their paltry 3.58 run team total. The Cubs have Drew Smyly throwing cutters and sinkers for more than half of his offerings this year and now he’s a ground ball pitcher (52%) and an 11.3 SwStr% that casts doubt on his 16.7 K%. However, batters from either side of the plate have a wOBA and xwOBA of at least .335 against him since last year. Ben Gamel (73 wRC+, .096 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Bryan Reynolds (130 wRC+, .158 ISO) are within $200 of $2.5K on FD.

Top Bats Should Get Several Shots Against Innings Eater

An eight or six game main slate featuring a loaded pitching board finds the Yankees atop the board at 4.75 implied runs with the Toronto Blue Jays (4.62) the only other offense above four and a half. There is no doubt this is a pitcher’s slate. Mike Trout (206 wRC+, .359 ISO vs RHP since 2021) is tonight’s top projected batter by PlateIQ, in Texas, against Dane Dunning (batters from either side between a .319 to .339 wOBA and xwOBA against him since last year). The rest of the top 10 on either side is littered with Yankees and Blue Jays. Aaron Judge (157 wRC+, .264 ISO), Anthony Rizzo (112 wRC+, .217 ISO) and Giancarlo Stanton (141 wRC+, .255 ISO) are all top seven projected bats against Jordan Lyles, whom the Orioles are content to just let eat innings in another go nowhere season. He’s thrown at least 89 pitches in six straight starts. Sometimes that even leads to quality starts (he has two of them) with a below average, but not terrible 10.4 K-BB% and 90.1 mph EV (8.1% Barrels/BBE). His 4.38 ERA is within half a run of all estimators with none dipping below four. Since last season, batters from either side are above a .335 wOBA and xwOBA. Unless he gets unloaded upon, which would be great news for your Yankee stacks anyway, batters are likely to see him three times tonight.

The top of the Toronto order, which projects to include George Springer (157 wRC+, .270 ISO), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (141 wRC+, .218 ISO) and Teoscar Hernandez (192 wRC+, .343 ISO), also project as top 10 bats tonight against the very mashable Marco Gonzales. But he has a 3.38 ERA, you say? It’s simply that nine of his 21 runs have been unearned. With just a 6.2 K-BB%, 90.2 Z-Contact%, 46.6 Z-O-Swing% and 9.9% Barrels/BBE a 4.83 xFIP is his lowest estimator. RHBs have a .340 wOBA with an xwOBA one point higher against him since last year.

You may think there is no room for any other team to place multiple bats among the top 10 projections with all those Blue Jays and Yankees, but the Cubs sneak a couple in the back end as well. They are third on the board with a 4.42 team run total with projections favoring Ian Happ (112 wRC+, .205 ISO vs RHP since 2021) and Willson Contreras (109 wRC+, .180 ISO). There are two potential issues here though. One, is that the weather currently appears to be pitcher friendly (though not overwhelmingly so) with cool temperatures (below 60 degrees) and a light wind blowing in from left or maybe more across the field. We also aren’t sure who’s going to be pitching for the Pirates. Wil Crowe will be starting, but is likely just an opener. Maybe for Mitch Keller? Batters from either side of the plate are above a .370 wOBA since last year against the former.

Changes in Pitch Usage Have Made This Lefty a Ground Ball Pitcher

As opposed to previous days this week, paying up for pitching seems nearly mandatory tonight, but GPP players may want to differ and some may also be in the market for a cheaper SP2 on DraftKings. Covering the first part (FD) first, three sub-$8K pitchers appear as top four point per dollar projected values by PlateIQ tonight with very little separation between them. All of Josiah Gray’s rookie season problems have followed him into 2022. With five home runs over his last two starts, he’s up to a 16.3 HR/FB with only eight of his 15 barrels (15.3%) leaving the yard, while he’s still carrying a double digit walk rate (11.5%). Even with the 24.8 K%, a 4.26 SIERA is his only estimator below a 4.34 ERA. The positive here is a substantial park upgrade, but the Marlins have a 128 wRC+ at home and 117 wRC+ (21.3 K%) vs RHP. Gray is purely a high risk upside play only available on FanDuel.

Jordan Hicks has worked his way up to 77 pitches in his fifth start, although he’s carrying just an 8.0 K-BB% since being inserted into the rotation. The 58.7 GB% is still the biggest value to his team. For some unknown reason, DRA loves him (3.35), but he doesn’t have another estimator below four. The Mets have a 117 wRC+ and 18.7 K% vs RHP. Hicks is cheap and in a great park, but weather may be more hitter friendly than it’s been so far this season tonight.

The Cubs have Drew Smyly throwing cutters and sinkers for more than half of his offerings this year and now he’s a ground ball pitcher (52%). If you’re discouraged at the potential cost being a 16.7 K%, an 11.3 SwStr% strongly suggests that won’t be the case for long. He’s also generated just an 84.3 mph EV and 4.8 BB%. While all estimators are above his 3.64 ERA, only his FIP is above four (15.6 HR/FB), but a rise in his strikeout rate could drop them into the lower threes. Have the Cubs created a new pitcher? Smyly currently projects for the most value of any confirmed sub-$8K pitcher on DraftKings, hosting the Pirates (82 wRC+, 22.3 K% vs LHP). Conditions at Wrigley also appear to be pitcher friendly tonight. Smyly could be very interesting in your SP2 spot.

Loaded Pitching Board Includes Several $10+ Pitchers on Wednesday

Wednesday night’s main slate, which is just six games on DraftKings and eight on FanDuel, offers a much more attractive pitching board than Tuesday’s, including six $10K pitchers! Within $100 of $10.5K on either site, Max Scherzer is the most expensive DraftKings arm by $500. He’s also tonight’s top projected pitcher by PlateiQ, though just barely above Gerrit Cole and this is subject to change. Scherzer may be getting a little more barrel prone in his later years (10% of contact this year), but still has all the strikeouts (32.5%) with very few walks (6.5%) and continues to pitch deep into games. A 3.03 FIP is his only estimator above three. He pitches in a great park where the ball has been going nowhere in night games this year, but with more marginal weather and the wind blowing out tonight, these may be the most hitter friendly conditions we’ve seen for a night game at Citi Field this year, while the Cardinals have just a 19.7 K% vs RHP (100 wRC+). Expect Scherzer’s talent to win out, but there may be enough ammunition to come in under-weight if we expect he’s going to appear in too many lineups tonight. For more on tonight’s loaded pitching board, including who might break the slate, check out Wednesday’s PliateIQ Live Blog.

Ketel Marte scratched Tuesday

Ketel Marte scratched Tuesday

Strong Lineups Could Create Leverage When the Top Offense is too Cheap

Despite two fewer games appearing the FanDuel slate, Giants stacks are projected to dominate ownership on either site, currently above 20% with the Yankees the only other team projected for double digit ownership, though this is subject to change. Interestingly, simulations suggest the Yankees smash the slate almost as often as the Giants with no other offense doing so more than 10% of the time. Facing Spenser Watkins in the Camden Yards is almost as beneficial as facing an average pitcher at Coors it seems. San Francisco bats are also too cheap. On both sites. Giants’ stacks also have top value projections on either site, though this is more overwhelming on DraftKings, where they’re current Value% is more than three times any other offense. It’s still a strong enough spot to give them Leverage Ratings above 2.0 on either site, but if players are really looking to differentiate and win a GPP, those ratings also suggest a few potentially more profitable spots. To find out what happens to Leverage Ratings when the top offense is so cheap, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Several Value Bats Can Be Found in Top Offenses

With a significant lack of premium pitching, tonight’s slate doesn’t demand a lot of value bats, but again, we’re finding the Giants dominating the point per dollar projections on either site. They’re just too cheap. LaMonte Wade Jr. (132 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP since 2021) certainly didn’t live up to his projections last night and it seems that nearly the entire lineup suffers from pinch-hitteritis, but he’s once again the top projected point per dollar value on FanDuel, as well as a top three value on DraftKings. He’s within $100 of $3K on either site. Top overall projected bats MikeYazwhatsamacallit (125 wRC+, .154 ISO) and Joc Pederson (101 wRC+, .222 ISO) are also top projected values on either site for less than $4K, along with Evan Longoria (92 wRC+, .174 ISO) on FanDuel for less than $3K and Tommy La Stella (98 wRC+, .168 ISO) just above the minimum on DraftKings. Chad Kuhl may be an improved pitcher (13.3 SwStr%, 5.3% Barrels/BBE), but LHBs still own a wOBA and xwOBA within a point of .340 against him since last year.

Let’s say we know that the San Francisco lineup is going to be widely owned like last night and they could certainly fail as they did last night, scoring seven runs, but with absolutely nothing out of the top half of the lineup. You’re looking to differentiate. FanDuel is making it a bit easier to stack Yankees with Joey Gallo (128 wRC+, .263 ISO) and Kyle Higashioka (40 wRC+, .139 ISO) both projecting as top values with RHBs above a .400 wOBA and xwOBA against Spenser Watkins since last year and LHBs a .340 wOBA as well. Neither costs more than $2.6K on FD.

Projections believe Cubbies’ bats could hold great value on DraftKings. They punished Pittsburgh pitching for nine runs last night (eight in the first inning) and the weather may be even more hitter friendly tonight, against J.T. Brubaker (batters from either side of the plate above a .320 wOBA & xwOBA since last year). Both Alfonso Rivas (141 wRC+, .164 ISO) and Jason Heyward (67 wRC+, .130 ISO) barely cost more than the minimum.

Hitter Projections Very Much in Line With Team Run Totals

Just as they did on Monday, the San Francisco Giants top the board at a 6.06 run team total, well ahead of any other team. While they did beat their six plus run total on Monday night, it probably wasn’t with the batters daily fantasy players rostered and the matchup may be a bit tougher against Chad Kuhl, who may be Colorado’s best pitcher this year (13.3 SwStr%, 5.3% Barrels/BBE), but it is still Coors. The matchup on the other side may be a bit tougher too (Alex Cobb), leaving the Rockies right around the five run mark, still just one of three teams on the board above four and a half implied runs. Yankees split the Coors teams with a 5.23 run team total.

PlateIQ projections are dominated by two teams tonight. One is the Giants, who place four batters among the top 10 with the highest raw point total projections. This includes Joc Pederson (101 wRC+, .222 ISO vs RHP since LY), Brandon Belt (157 wRC+, .313 ISO), LaMonte Wade Jr. (132 wRC+, .244 ISO) and Mike Yazhowyaspellit (125 wRC+, 154 ISO). While Kuhl may be a much improved pitcher, LHBs still own a wOBA and xwOBA within a point of .340 against him since last year.

The other team placing multiple players among the top 10 projections is the Yankees. In fact, you won’t find a batter outside those two teams among the top five hitter projections tonight. The Orioles may have moved the left-field wall way back, so the Yankees took aim at right-center last night for their home runs. With a seven run effort in less than four innings in St Louis last time out, Spenser Watkins’s 5.19 ERA is still below all of his estimators (0.8 K-BB%), but only more than half a run below his FIP (13.8 HR/FB) and xERA (11.0% Barrels/BBE). He’s gone three straight starts without completing five innings and hasn’t exceeded three strikeouts yet this year. The park may not exist that can hold the Yankees against him and his reverse split (RHBs > .400 wOBA and xwOBA, LHBs .340 wOBA, .351 xwOBA since 2021) certainly won’t help against a predominantly right-handed lineup. Aaron Judge (151 wRC+, .253 ISO vs RHP since last season) is tonight’s top overall projected bat, while Giancarlo Stanton (141 wRC+, .257 ISO), Anthony Rizzo (112 wRC+, .217 ISO) and DJ LeMahieu (100 wRC+, .105 ISO) are all to heavily assist in the punishment of Watkins and friends tonight. In fact, Mike Trout (182 wRC+, .180 ISO) against Taylor Hearn (RHBs .344 wOBA, .365 xwOBA) is the only non-Giant or Yankee batter currently appearing as a top 10 projected bat on both sites. While it may not always be the case, PlateIQ projections are firmly in line with the sports books tonight.

Mid-Range Arms Project to be Best Values on Tuesday

Considering the lack of quality arms on tonight’s slate, including several at the top, who seem to be over-priced, paying down for pitching needs seems to be the thing to do tonight. That’s not to say any of the pitchers costing less than $9K will light up anyone’s eyes either, but they do project much better on a point per dollar basis. James Karpielian and Jose Berrios are currently the top projected values on either site and the skepticism is understandable. The former has struck out just 10 of 55 batters with nine walks and 38.9% of his contact on the ground. He’s been lucky that just one of four barrels (11.1%) has left the yard. And while the Twins have a 107 wRC+ vs RHP, Kaprielian is cheap in a great park against a banged up offense with a 23.6 K% vs RHP this year. For more on which mid-range pitchers could win the slate tonight, check out Tuesday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Weak Pitching Board Includes Over-Priced Arms

If double header pitching probables hold true, Tuesday night’s entire slate, whether it be eight games on FanDuel or 10 games on DraftKings, includes just a single $10K pitcher in Logan Gilbert. He struck out a season high nine Phillies last time out, but also allowed a season high four runs over just five innings. A 10.0 SwStr%, 9.2 BB% and 90.5 mph EV suggest he hasn’t been as good as last season, despite the 2.13 ERA, though his numbers are hardly bad with estimators ranging from a 3.10 FIP to a 3.55 xERA. Interestingly, you won’t find Gilbert anywhere near the top of today’s PlateIQ projections, at least early on, as projections are fluid throughout the day. You might think it’s the matchup and Toronto is certainly a park downgrade, but still a mere neutral run environment, while the Blue Jays have just a 100 wRC+ with a 23.2 K% vs RHP. Gilbert could be under-valued and severely under-owned should current projections hold true.

There are several pitchers who exceed $9K on both sites, but Adrian Houser isn’t even generating ground balls anymore (45.7%) to go along with a 7.5 K-BB%. Nobody should be paying in excess of $9K for him against the Braves. Jameson Taillon is actually tonight’s top projected pitcher in terms of raw overall point total which says a lot more about the slate and the matchup (Baltimore is pitcher friendly now, while the O’s have a 98 wRC+ and 22.9 K% vs RHP) than his own performance. With just four strikeouts in four straight starts, Taillon has seen his K-rate drop to 19.4%, but because he’s only walked three batters this year with nearly as many infield flies (six) as barrels (seven), his 2.93 xERA is a perfect match for his actual ERA. Additional non-FIP estimators (7.9 HR/FB) are a little more than half a run higher. On a more standard slate, Taillon would likely be merely a middle of the board arm.

Nathan Eovaldi’s 21.5 K-BB% is actually a slight improvement from last year, but suddenly, his contact profile is a mess (12.4% Barrels/BBE). The average exit velocity is up 2.7 mph and his Barrels/BBE have nearly doubled (6.3% to 12.4%). In just seven starts, Eovaldi is already 60% of the way to his home run total allowed from last season (32 starts). As one might imagine, contact neutral estimators are all below his 3.15 ERA (but above three), while ones that include the contact profile (FIP, xERA) are above four. He has to face the Astros (123 wRC+, 21.8 K% vs RHP) at Fenway and is projected outside the top five on either site.

Lastly, Merrill Kelly costs $9.4K on DK in Game 2 of the doubleheader between the D’Backs and Dodgers (120 wRC+, 21.1 K% vs RHP). He did break a string of four straight quality starts last time out, hasn’t allowed more than three runs in any of his seven starts and only more than one twice. While the 15.9 K-BB% is fine with nothing concerning in his contact profile, non-FIP estimators are all about a run and a half or more above his 1.71 ERA. Just one of his nine barrels (7.5%) has left the yard, while he’s stranding 85.8% of runners. Still, this is not a pitcher we’re interested in paying more than $9K for against the Dodgers. Projections are not yet available for double-header Game 2 starters, but it’s unlikely they’ll say otherwise.

Nelson Cruz (illness) scratched Monday

Nelson Cruz (illness) scratched Monday

Cardinals-Mets postponed Monday

Game update: Cardinals-Mets postponed Monday

San Francisco Stacks Project Near the Top of the Board Except in One Area

Early stacking projections, which are frequently updated and fluid throughout the day, revolved entirely around the one offense you would expect them too. With a 6.56 implied run line more than a run above any other team, San Francisco stacks are projected to be owned at better than 20% and smash the slate more than 17% of the time, far better than any other offense in either one of those categories. This is probably not something anyone needed any sort of deep analysis to see. Top projected value stack…also the Giants…and again by a mile. The Cubs also project as a great value stack on DraftKings against Dillon Peters, though the Pirates have not confirmed him yet. They will probably remain a great value against anyone else the Pirates might decide to throw out there too. While San Francisco stacks dominate the stacking projections for the most part, they do not top the board in terms of Leverage Rating. For more on what teams do, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.