DFS Alerts

Top of the Board Features Over-Priced Arms, But One Strong Choice

An 11 game Monday night slate is a bit chaotic. We may see some northeast weather issues, though Kevin’s forecast is not yet available. One of those games includes the only pitcher to reach $10K on FanDuel, who may be unrosterable despite the weather. Master magician Miles Mikolas has driven a 7.5 SwStr% to a 1.49 ERA. Of course, estimators are well above those results (.244 BABIP, 89.3 LOB%), but he’s certainly not hurting himself in any other areas (4.8 BB%, 48.8 GB%, 86.5 mph EV, 4% Barrels/BBE) and pitch-to-contact may actually work when you have one of the great defenses in the league behind that contact profile. His worst estimator is a 3.78 SIERA. Citi Field is an extremely pitcher friendly park and that’s certainly been the case in night games so far this season with cooler weather, the new baseball and the humidor, but the Mets have a board low 18.7 K% vs RHP this year. Mikolas just the 10th best projected pitcher on FanDuel tonight (PlateIQ) and outside the top 10 on DraftKings.

Freddy Peralta and Tony Gonsolin exceed $10K on DraftKings, but cost less on FanDuel, the latter much less so ($8.7K). After a bit of a slow start, Peralta has struck out 22 of his last 67 batters to his the 30% strikeout rate mark (30.6%). Just three walks over the same span drop his walk rate down to single digits (8.9%). He’s oddly allowed nearly half his contact (47.2%) at a 95 mph EV or higher, yet has also allowed just 4.2% Barrels/BBE with an 87.5 mph EV. A .338 BABIP and 66.5 LOB% have his ERA (4.40) at least a run above all estimators, closest to his 3.40 xERA. He gets the Braves (98 wRC+, 25 K% vs RHP) in a neutral park, which makes it a neutral matchup with upside and also makes him one of tonight’s top two projected arms, who find themselves way ahead of the rest of the pack.

While the Dodgers were hoping for Gonsolin’s walk rate to drop significantly, it’s actually his strikeout rate that has plummeted through six starts (21.1%) to give him a single digit K-BB (9.2%). A 48.6 GB% is the highest he’s ever had at any professional level of play and absolutely no complaints about a contact profile (87.3 mph EV, 1.4% Barrels/BBE) that produces a 2.49 xERA that’s more than a run above his actual ERA, but nearly a run below any other estimator (3.46 FIP). The Diamondbacks offer plenty of upside (86 wRC+, 25.3 K% vs RHP), but Gonsolin is projected outside the top seven in terms of raw point total on either site.

No other remaining confirmed pitcher exceeds $9K on either site, but Lucas Giolito is probably worth a quick mention, just in case he comes off the COVID IL to make tonight’s start. He’s struck out 35.7% over five starts, which, even with a poor contact profile (32.2 GB%, 11.9% Barrels/BBE, 19.2 HR/FB), non-FIP estimators are all below three and a half. He would be in a strong spot in Kansas City in terms of run prevention (82 wRC+), though they own just a 19.8 K% vs RHP this year. Giolito does not yet own a projection as Chicago’s pitching plans are currently up in the air.

The start of Mariners-Mets will be delayed Saturday due to rain

Game update: The start of Mariners-Mets will be delayed Saturday due to rain

Coors Stacks Are Not Smashing the Slate Most Often in Simulations

We have a 13 game slate that includes Coors and a decent amount of expensive pitching without much in mid-range upside. Currently, no team projects to be stacked in more than 10% or even 9% of lineups on Fanduel, though the Royals, with several cheap bats at Coors, and Red Sox (at Dane Dunning) are expected to be extremely popular on DraftKings (remember that projections are fluid and change throughout the day). One early surprise might be that neither team at Coors projects to “smash” the slate in simulations particularly often. While no team currently does so more than 11% of the time, Coors teams do so in less than six percent of simulations at this point. The Yankees (at Vince Velasquez) and Astros (at Josiah Gray) are projected to smash the slate most often. Cheap Detroit bats against Jordan Lyles are the runaway value stack on FanDuel, while they are a bit behind Baltimore (vs Eduardo Rodriguez) and Cubs (at Zach Davies) all projected as double digit value stacks on DraftKings. To find out which lineup may make for a GPP winning stack against a barrel prone pitcher, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Cheap Bats & Pitching Means Potential Value on All Fronts in One Game

If players are striving to include Coors bats with expensive arms in their lineups, the other half of those lineups is going to have to include value bats and projections for FanDuel firmly suggest many of those can be found in one spot in Detroit. While Jordan Lyles actually projects as a top value arm and reasonable SP2 on DraftKings at a very low price as the Orioles allow him to pile up the innings against a struggling offense, he’s still a below average pitcher with batters from either side owning at least a .350 wOBA against him since last season, facing a lineup without a single projected starter above $3K (FD). Austin Meadows (136 wRC+, .255 ISO vs RHP since LY), Robbie Grossman (98 wRC+, .144 ISO), Jonathan Schoop (78 wRC+, .131 ISO), Jeimer Candelario (115 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Willi Castro (64 wRC+, .133 ISO) all project as top point per dollar plays via PlateIQ against Lyles tonight on FanDuel. However, both Cooper Hummel (99 wRC+ overall this season) and Jordan Luplow (115 wRC+, .269 ISO vs LHP since 2021) project as top three values against Drew Smyly (RHBs .342 wOBA, .338 xwOBA since 2021) too.

DraftKings goes to the other side of both of those matchups for top value projections. Alfonso Rivas (153 wRC+, .167 ISO) and Rafael Ortega (133 wRC+, .186 ISO) are extremely cheap against Zach Davies (LHBs .347 wOBA, .370 xwOBA since LY). Against Eduardo Rodriguez, another top projected point per dollar pitcher, in Detroit, PlateIQ projections favor a couple of min-priced Baltimore bats in Rylan Bannon (MLB debut this week) and Chris Owings (177 wRC+, .142 ISO), who are both expected to bat in the bottom third of the lineup.

Great news for DraftKings players is that projections also favor a couple of visiting Coors bats for less than $3K, but Michael A. Taylor (96 wRC+, .110 ISO) and Emmanuel Rivera (110 wRC+, .076 ISO) have displayed no power at all with the platoon advantage. Though, they will make it much easier to jam in a $5.3K Sal Perez (163 wRC+, .321 ISO) against Kyle Freeland (RHBs .348 wOBA, .329 xwOBA since LY).

Low K & GB Rates in Tough Park Leads to Top Projected Opposing Bats

Zack Greinke brings a 7.5 K% and 38.1 GB% to Coors that sees the Rockies with the highest implied run line on the board at 5.61, well above the Dodgers as the next highest offense (5.19). No other offense registers a team run line above five, but four more exceed four and a half tonight. On FanDuel, the Rockies and Yankees are the only two teams with multiple players among the top 10, though Kansas City and Houston just miss that arbitrary cutoff. The Yankees actually have the lowest implied run line of the four teams at 4.63, though certainly see the appeal of Aaron Judge (149 wRC+, .250 ISO vs RHP since LY)(second highest projected raw point total) and Anthony Rizzo (112 wRC+, .214 ISO) against Vince Velasquez (batters from either side above a .350 wOBA and xwOBA since 2021), who still owns an atrocious contact profile (32.8 GB%, 92 mph EV, 13.2% Barrels/BBE). C.J. Cron (125 wRC+, .248 ISO) and Connor Joe (106 wRC+, .175 ISO) are PlateIQ projection favored Rockies against Zack Greinke’s reverse split since last year (RHBs .348 wOBA, .355 xwOBA).

Along with those four batters, the pair of Royals do make the cut inside the top 10 on DraftKings. Of course, they are also at Coors, against Kyle Freeland, who has been fairly efficient this season. The Rockies love their ground balls and he is producing lots of them (51%) with just an 18.6 K%, but a 10.7 SwStr% that suggests that could improve. Include a 24 IFFB% with those ground balls and Freeland has allowed just seven barrels (6.9%), despite a 90.1 mph EV. All estimators are fairly close to his 3.94 ERA. That said, RHBs still own a .348 wOBA, .329 xwOBA against him since 2021 and projections believe Sal Perez (163 wRC+, .321 ISO vs LHP since LY) and LHB Andrew Benintendi (103 wRC+, .122 ISO) can take advantage of him tonight. LHBs have a .345 wOBA, but just .294 xwOBA against Freeland over the same time period.

The Astros just miss having multiple top 10 projected bats on both sites by a couple of spots. Josiah Gray has a double digit barrel rate (12.5% of contact) with a 12.2 BB%. Yordan Alvarez (152 wRC+, .289 ISO) owns the top raw projected point total on either site tonight with Jose Altuve (135 wRC+, .216 ISO) is just outside the top 10. LHBs (.360 wOBA, .364 xwOBA) have fared a bit better than RHBs (.326 wOBA, .293 xwOBA) against Gray in his short career.

If you’re a DraftKings player looking to pair a cheaper SP2 (< $7K) with a top guy, PlateIQ projections project two sub-$6K arms as potential top values, ahead of Max Scherzer, who happens to project as the third best DK value. Chase Silseth is making his major league debut for the Angels, straight out of AA. Scouting reports suggest that he throws a very hard, but hittable fastball and will need to rely on secondaries to survive at the major league level and even see a multi-inning bullpen role in his future. He may have changed some minds this year by striking out 37 of 99 AA batters with a 25 IFFB%, but this is a big leap. The A’s (69 wRC+, 25.8K% vs RHP) in Oakland are an ideal debut spot though.

Jordan Lyles is currently the second best projected value on DK. A lot of players will probably ignore that, but aside from a 17.6 K%, he really hasn’t been terrible. Though all estimators are above his 4.05 ERA, a 5.01 xERA is the only one above five. The O’s are willing to let him eat some innings too. He hasn’t thrown fewer than 89 pitches since his first start and has gone more than three full trips through the order in each of his last two starts. That could indeed have some value in Detroit, against a struggling offense (72 wRC+, 23.6 K% vs RHP).

Zach Davies has been managing contact very effectively (52.3 GB%, 84.5 mph EV, 5.7% Barrels/BBE), but with just a 7.3 K-BB%. As one might imagine, a contact inclusive estimator like xERA projects 3.58, while a contact neutral SIERA is 4.47 with all others in between. He merits mention though, merely because he costs he costs just $6K and the Cubs have a 25.3 K% vs RHP.

Top Mid-Range Values Include High Risk Arms in Favorable Spots

If you’re someone looking for mid-range value pitching, then PlateIQ projections favor three guys between a $7-$9K price point on a point per dollar or value basis. Eduardo Rodriguez is the top projected value in that price range and second best point per dollar projection on FanDuel overall. Marco Gonzales is cheaper with a better point per dollar projection, but is probably not someone players are considering rostering on a single pitcher site. E-Rod set season highs with eight strikeouts and 6.2 IP last time out, but still had just an 8.1 SwStr%. His velocity also matched his first start, which matches his lowest average velocity game from last year as well, according to Fangraphs velocity graphing. While estimators now seem to believe his ERA is flying a bit high (4.50) with a 23 K%, a 3.65 K/SwStr is completely unsustainable. We can expect the 44.6 LOB% to regress, but if he doesn’t start missing more bats, the strikeout rate will as well without much improvement upon surface results. That said, the park is pitcher friendly and the Orioles offer some further upside against LHP (81 wRC+, 27.5 K%).

Projections for FanDuel also favor Nick Pivetta for $7K, although he’s $500 more and a much more marginally projected value on DraftKings. He did throw six shutout innings with eight strikeouts and no walks against the White Sox last time out. It was also the lowest average velocity game of his career, according to Fangraphs. With that start, he’s up to a 13.4 K-BB%, but with just a 27.2 GB% and 93.2 mph EV. Just four of nine barrels (11.7%) have left the yard, yet he still has a 6.08 ERA with estimators ranging from a 4.06 SIERA to a 5.48 xERA. The matchup (Rangers 81 wRC+, 22.2 K% vs RHP) with a large park upgrade (especially if the roof is closed in Texas) are a reasonable attraction here, but Pivetta is a very high risk arm.

Framber Valdez projects as a top seven value on FD, but much more marginal on DK at a similar price tonight, just a bit above $8K. He recorded a season low two-thirds of his contact on the ground last time out. His 72 GB% leads the league by a wide margin, making him valuable enough in and of itself, posting four quality starts in six attempts. He’s allowed just 26 batted balls that weren’t grounders and not a single barrel yet, but a 7.9 K-BB% is another story. Even still, in this depressed run environment, all estimators are within half a run of his 3.34 ERA with none dipping below three. You’re looking for volume here and a strong shot at a Quality Start, which is where a lot of his FD value will come from. The Nationals have just a 59 wRC+ at home this year and 84 wRC+ vs LHP. However, this is firmly a positive run environment against a team that doesn’t strike out (16.7 K% and 7.0 K-BB% vs LHP).

Tonight's Top Projected Pitcher Owns the Highest K-Rate on the Board

On a large 13 game Friday night slate, five pitchers reach the $10K price point on either site tonight with future Hall of Famers Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer the only ones to do so on both. Unfortunately, the former has just been scratched. Scherzer is your top to projected pitchers by PlateIQ. He is still coming right after batters with stuff that may not be as good as his peak (11.9% Barrels/BBE, five home runs), but it’s still good enough for the top strikeout rate on the board (34.3%) with only one estimator (3.04 FIP) above his 2.92 ERA. He’s completed six innings in five of his six starts (four quality). The Mariners have been a very tough bunch (113 wRC+, 21.9 K% vs RHP), but Citi Field is an extremely negative run environment with pitchers potentially receiving a slight weather bump too. If you’re looking for a reason to fade Scherzer, perhaps it’s because the Mariners have some LH power, but he can give up his home runs and rack up the fantasy points with a double digit strikeout effort as well. The floor is always fairly high with Scherzer. To find out which high priced arm could steal the slate tonight, check out Friday’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

Clayton Kershaw (pelvis) scratched Friday, placed on IL

Clayton Kershaw (pelvis) scratched Friday, placed on IL

Steven Matz listed as starter for Cardinals.

Steven Matz is now listed as the starter for the Cardinals after Jordan Hicks was originally slated to get the start. It is unknown at this time why the change was made. Update: the change was made so Matz could avoid facing the Giants after just facing them on the 7th.

Bryan Baker to start for Orioles Thursday

Bryan Baker to start for Orioles Thursday. It appears that the Orioles will be having a bullpen game with Baker getting the start, though Keegan Akin could potentially see an extended outing behind him according to one beat reporter though this hasn’t been confirmed.

Ryan Mountcastle scratched Wednesday

Ryan Mountcastle scratched Wednesday

Projections Suggest Stacks in This Game Have a Lot of Value

PlateIQ stacking projections suggest the Cardinals (5.16 implied runs tops the board) will be the most popular offense, reaching above 20% stacking ownership on DraftKings currently (projections subject to change) and 15% on FanDuel. This likely means a cheaper bat like Juan Yepez is likely to be extremely popular. The Mets & Rangers, also near the top of the board are the only other stacks projecting for double digit ownership right now. The Cardinals also “smash” the slate most often in simulations, above 15% of the time on both sites, with the Mets the only other team above 10%. Top projected value stacks differ quite a bit from site to site, but both sides of the Oakland/Detroit matchup are currently in double digits on both sites. To find out which team is popping a large Leverage Rating and the likely reason why, check out today’s PlateIQ Live Blog.

One Site is Making Your Really Work to Roster Value Bats Tonight

While it might be nice to stack top of the board St Louis bats tonight, pricing (both hitter and pitching) may not allow it. You’re very likely going to be paying up for a pitcher tonight and if you’re a DraftKings player, maybe even for two of them. If we start with FanDuel, we find that many of the top offenses (implied run lines around four and a half or better) also have multiple top projected values. Brandon Nimmo (138 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP since 2021) doubles as a top overall projection and top five value play for less than $3K on FD, where teammate Dominic Smith (72 wRC+, .117 ISO) currently projects ast the top value ($2.1K) against Aaron Sanchez (95.5 mph EV). Brad Miller (110 wRC+, .222 ISO) and Marcus Semien (128 wRC+, .260 ISO) are top 10 projected values, though the Royals have just decided Jon Heasley (23.3 K-BB% over six AAA starts) will be starting. This will be even more favorable for bats should they open the roof tonight. The St Louis Cardinals (5.16 implied runs) even sneak Juan Yepez (.287 wRC+, .313 ISO) and Dylan Carlson (100 wRC+, .160 ISO) inside the top 10 projected values against Spenser Watkins (RHBs .440 wOBA, LHBs .325 since LY).

DraftKings is going to make your cheap stacks a bit tougher. Brad Miller ($2.5K) is the top projected value with Kole Calhoun (87 wRC+, .135 ISO) is just outside the top 10 at the same price, while Lepez can help make Cardinal stacks a bit more affordable for $3K. The only other offenses placing multiple batters inside the top 10 projected values by PlateIQ are the Royals with Michael A. Taylor and Ryan O’Hearn, essentially against the Texas bullpen, and the A’s with Chad Pinder (138 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP since 2021) and Christian Bethancourt (151 wRC+, .235 ISO) against debuting rookie Joey Wentz. Oakland is interesting because Wentz may be the only viable SP2 punt on DK and could be in more than one-quarter of lineups, meaning many of those players won’t want to roster cheap Oakland bats, which could increase their leveraging potential on the field.

One Team Dominates Top of the Board for Hitter Projections

On a seven game Wednesday night slate we find our first team with more than five run team total on a main slate this week, along with multiple teams above four and a half implied runs for the first time as well. A grand total of two teams exceed a four and a half run team total tonight (Cardinals & Mets), while the Rangers & Astros just miss the mark. There are clearly some pitchers worth attacking on this slate.

The Cardinals certainly own the projections tonight, featuring three of the top four projected batters on either site (PlateIQ projections) and five of the top 10 on DraftKings. There’s good reason for this. Spenser Watkins has walked as many as he’s struck out (10 each) and also been lucky that just three of seven barrels (9.3%) have left the yard. A 4.51 DRA is his only estimator below five. Same-handed (RH) batters own a wOBA and xwOBA above .400 against him since last year and he’ll be facing a predominantly right-handed lineup. Further, while St Louis is generally a run and power suppressing environment, conditions (weather and umpire) suggest this may be much less true tonight. Paul Goldschmidt (124 wRC+, .184 ISO vs RHP since 2021), Nolan Arenado (116 wRC+, .223 ISO) and Tyler O’Neill (125 wRC+, .238 ISO) are your top projected bats, while Juan Yepez (286 wRC+, .313 ISO) and Tommy Edman (92 wRC+, .102 ISO) grade very well too. At a $3K price tag, Yepez projects as one of the best values on the board as well.

While Francisco Lindor (110 wRC+, .188 ISO vs RHP since LY) and Brandon Nimmo (138 wRC+, .164 ISO) are just outside the top 10 on DraftKings, both currently carry top 10 overall projections on FanDuel against Aaron Sanchez in Washington. It’s a large park upgrade for this offense in addition to Sanchez’s 5.5 SwStr% and 95.5 mph EV. About the only positive is that he keeps more than half his contact on the ground, but the Mets haven’t been doing it with power this year. Get ‘em on. Get ‘em over. Get ‘em in. This is a full stacking situation with the expectation of the bases being littered with traffic all game long.

No other offense places multiple batters near the top of the board (top 10) tonight. Not even the Angels, which can be expected when Shohei Ohtani pitches and is not available as a batter, but even Mike Trout (188 wRC+, .186 ISO vs LHP since last season) is a bit lower than normal in a tough assignment against Shane McClanahan (RHBs .293 wOBA since 2021).