DFS Alerts
Should Be A High Scoring Game
Zack Godley will be the long reliefer for the Boston Red Sox tonight. He had a 5.43 xFIP with a 23.6% hard to soft contact ratio. He also had a 1.50 WHIP with a 1.37 HR/9 in 2019. McNeil, Alonso, Conforto, and Cano had .200+ ISO’s against right-handed pitching last season. In 120 at bats in 2018, Cespedes had a .261 ISO against right-handed pitching. I love the upside of the Mets, and I hope the lefties go overlooked because a left-handed pitcher is opening for the Red Sox. I also really like the fact they’re priced up on DraftKings, that should help lower the ownership as well.
Other tagged players: Jeff McNeil, Michael Conforto, Yoenis Cespedes, Robinson Cano
Nick Senzel (undisclosed) scratched Sunday; Travis Jankowski replaces
Senzel has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds latest confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Travis Jankowski, who will now play center field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Freddy Galvis up one spot to seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Reds lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Spencer Turnbull at home this afternoon.
As reported by: Reds PR via Twitter Other tagged players: Travis Jankowski
Jose Urena (COVID-19) scratched Sunday; Robert Dugger will start
Urena is reportedly among the group of four Miami Marlins players that have tested positive for the coronavirus, making him ineligible to play until he has two negative tests at least 24 hours apart, shows no symptoms for 72 hours, and receives approval from team doctors. In his absence, right-hander Robert Duggar will make the start against the Philadelphia Phillies on Sunday afternoon, which elevates their viability as a stack given the quantitative downgrade in skills from Urena to Dugger as an opposing pitcher.
As reported by: Andre Fernandez via Twitter Other tagged players: Robert Dugger Weather Doesn't Matter If You Are Missing Bats
I am not going to lie, I really struggled to find a second GPP pitcher that I could really get behind on this slate. Overall, I think there are some strong pitching options at the top (see: Bauer, Greinke, Carrasco et al) but I expect them to soak up a fair amount of ownership. Maeda is the first guy that I came across that has solid upside and should see his ownership settle in the low teens. The weather in Chicago isn’t ideal for Maeda (warm, humid, winds blowing out) but we’re not really concerned about that if he’s missing bats, right? Despite how powerful the White Sox lineup is, this is a good spot for Maeda to miss some bats – their projected lineup owned a 23.8% strikeout rate against RHP last season. It’s also worth noting that I expect the Twins to give Maeda a longer leash than the Dodgers did, which gives him some innings upside to go along with the strikeout upside.
Mike Moustakas (undisclosed) scratched Sunday; Nick Senzel replaces
Moustakas has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in Sunday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Nick Senzel, who will play center field and slot into the seventh spot in the order, which bumps Nick Castellanos up to fourth and Josh VanMeter up to fifth, respectively. However, the remainder of the Reds lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Spencer Turnbull at home this afternoon.
As reported by: the Cincinnati Reds via Twitter Other tagged players: Nick Senzel Top Arm On The Slate
This slate is underwhelming for pitching options, but Bauer claims the top spot for me. The matchup is ideal against a Tigers offense that ranks among the league’s worst, and Detroit led the league in strikeout percentage against RHP a year ago. Bauer quietly owns very good strikeout stuff, as he posted a K% near 28% a year ago. Detroit’s offense lacks any semblance of a power threat against righties, and it’s difficult to see a poor outing here. In terms of safety/upside combination and DFS salary, Bauer is the easy top choice here.
A #GoodSpot Once Again
Boston bats were chalk on Saturday and boy did they disappoint as they were only able to plate 2 runs on 9 hits. Well, they are unsurprisingly in another excellent spot on Sunday against the left-handed Wade LeBlanc and the Orioles bullpen. J.D. Martinez will undoubtedly (and rightfully) be one of the highest owned players on the slate but I wouldn’t be surprised if the rest of the team saw a bit of an ownership discount due to them leaving a sour taste in everyone’s mouth yesterday combined with there being a Wrigley Wind game on the slate. Make sure to keep a close eye on Boston’s lineup as most of their hitters are interchangeable plays based on where they are hitting in the order.
Other tagged players: Rafael Devers, Xander Bogaerts, Christian Vazquez, Michael Chavis, Jose Peraza Combination of Safety and Upside
Third base has a lot of options today, but Bregman will be a priority option for me today. You get the added bonus of shortstop eligibility on DraftKings, and he simply has a high floor against a low strikeout lefty in Kikuchi. Bregman owns a career .417 wOBA and 1.009 OPS against lefties, and Kikucha allowed a wOBA over .370 against RHBs a year ago. Fire him up with confidence in all DFS game formats.
Wrigley Wind
Seasoned DFS’ers know that as soon as you see warm temps and wind blowing out in Wrigley you stack the game every possible way. I am hoping that this being the first Wrigley Wind game of the season combined with it being Sunday that we see somewhat reduced ownership on this game but it’s highly doubtful. Per Kevn Roth’s WeatherEdge tool, in 23 prior games at Wrigley with similar conditions as today, HR’s increased by 73.6%, Total Runs by 32.3%, and ERA by 25.9%. Per Kevn Roth’s WeatherEdge tool, in 23 prior games at Wrigley with similar conditions as today, HR’s increased by 73.6%, Total Runs by 32.3%, and ERA by 25.9%.
Other tagged players: Anthony Rizzo, Ryan Braun, Keston Hiura, Willson Contreras, Avisail Garcia, Kyle Schwarber, Javier Baez, Justin Smoak The Optimal SP2
I hemmed and hawed about whether to include Carrasco or Velasquez as my second core pitcher today, but I have settled on Carrasco. There are simply a few too many question marks with Velasquez, who rarely goes deep into games even when all circumstances are perfect. I wouldn’t expect that to happen in the first start of a shortened season. Carrasco, meanwhile, has been a steady arm over the last several years when healthy, and all indications are that he is healthy to start 2020. He draws a great matchup against a Royals offense that lacks power, and I am not concerned about his poor surface numbers last year. His SIERA and xFIP were both two full runs better than his ERA, and his strikeout and walk numbers were still very good. I’m hopping aboard.
Reworked Pitch Mix
|| UPDATE: There are reports that the Marlins have multiple players that have tested positive for COVID. At this time, we don’t have clarification how wide spread it is and what the level of risk of cancellation is. Please know there is at least a small possibility. With that said, I still love VV in GPP’s and there’s a chance he gets to face an even weaker than normal Marlins offense. || Almost any pitcher toeing the rubber against the Marlins is worthy of GPP consideration but I am excited to see if VV’s Summer Camp hype can carry over to the regular season. Typically I am not interested in overvaluing Spring Training performance but in this case we can at leas potentially attribute VV’s off-season success to re-working his pitch mix. Velasquez added a cutter and splitter and almost completely ditched his slider and the early returns have been promising. I am almost sad VV is this cheap as I think his price tag + matchup will draw in a lot of ownership and I would have loved to invest in him at reduced ownership.
A Source of Value Bats
The Reds are not my first offensive choice today, but this is a spot where I will look for some value bats today. Spencer Turnbull is a below average RHP, and the salary relief is a nice bonus. Akiyama has been hitting in prime lineup spots and is for some reason $2,000 on DK, which you rarely see these days for starting hitters. Winker is $9 on Yahoo and should lead off. These plays aren’t sexy, but the combination of a good matchup, a high team total, and the value price tags are a big benefit on this slate. Suarez and Castellanos are also reasonable power plays if you have the salary available.
Twins are a great stack today
I have been waiting to write-up my Twins and today is the day. Max Kepler in particular hit two home runs on Friday night and the Twins were off and running. Today they get to go against Reynaldo Lopez who gives up a ton of home runs (35 home runs last year). I like the lefty batters but will definitely have Nelson Cruz in my stacks as well.
Favorable Weather = Stack Em Up
In GPP formats, I will stack the Brewers/Cubs game from all angles. The wind is going to be blowing straight out at Wrigley Field today at a 12-15 MPH clip, and we have two pitchers in this game that are capable of blowup starts. Both Tyler Chatwood and Freddy Peralta are inconsistent arms, both have high walk rates, and both have underwhelming batted ball profiles. I expect the bullpens to be a big part of this game given the way these two pitchers rack up high pitch counts. Schwarber gets a FD core tag from me given his power and super cheap $2,800 price tag on FD.
Top Hitter on the Slate
It would be borderline foolish to list anyone else as the top overall bat today given the data. J.D. Martinez had a .482 ISO and 1.381 OPS last season against lefties, and he has made a career off mashing southpaws. Wade LeBlanc is not the type of pitcher that can slow him down. Martinez should be one of your first choices for optimal lineups today.