DFS Alerts

BVP? LOL

All the numbers line up for Bryce Harper against Julio Teheran. Teheran has bad numbers across the board to left-handed batters with 20.9% K, 14.4% BB, 46% fly balls and 40% hard hits. Bryce Harper has a high 17% walk rate that will keep him on base, and if Teheran has to throw him a strike from runners getting on base ahead of him, his 46% hard hit rate can cause plenty of damage. For you BvP fans, even that lines up here with a career 1.526 OPS and eight home runs in 45 AB against Teheran.

The Power Keeps Coming

The Twins are not slowing down, ranking 2nd in the league in ISO and HR against right-handed pitching as well as overall scoring for the season. Tonight they face a low strikeout righty in Ivan Nova who has just 13.8% K to left-handed batters with average batted ball data. Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler combine strong contact with hard hits and fly balls that make them ideal plays in all formats tonight.

Finding a Cheap Arm

There’s not much for cheap pitching out there tonight, but I don’t hate the idea of punting with Milone on multi-pitcher sites. The Pirates have essentially given up for the season at this point, and they have had injuries to two of their big bats in Marte and Bell over the last week. They didn’t score a single run on Tuesday. Milone is by no means an ace, but he’s a capable pitcher that can get you around five innings with a possible W and not many runs allowed. That should be enough to earn SP2 consideration on an ugly slate of arms.

Don't Overthink It

The gap between Cole and the rest of the pitchers on tonight’s slate is about as wide as you can get. Houston has not clinched the AL West just yet, so don’t expect any limitations on Cole’s workload. The opposing Rangers have an implied run total barely over two runs here, and Houston is a laughable -560 favorite in Vegas. Cole has been a dominant force with massive strikeout upside every time he takes the mound, and I can’t see a path to avoiding him on this slate. Find a way to fit him in there.

Finding Something Cheap

On DK/FDRFT, most of the top bats are appropriately priced and getting up to Gerrit Cole is a priority. This will leave us searching for some values. The Phillies Brad Miller should be near the middle of the lineup with his .230 ISO and 41% hard hits against righties facing the poor control of Julio Teheran. Miller is likely to see runners on base ahead of him, with the power to do the damage if he gets a pitch to hit and the patience to take walks and score if Teheran can’t find the zone.

Better Than Everybody Else

Gerrit Cole is in a league of his own on this or any other slate. He’s been so ridiculously dominant, that neither salary nor matchup really matter at this point. His already league high 39.4% strikeout rate is up to a goofy 51.6% over the past month and he has at least 11 strikeouts in five straight starts. The Rangers being a top five team in strikeouts against righties only adds to the already immense upside. It is overthinking it to play anybody else in cash games tonight and this is a very scary tournament fade.

Play The Motivation Angle

It is at this time of year where I really start giving a boost to teams that have something to play for. The Indians remain in the thick of the AL playoff race, and they have an implied team total north of six runs tonight against Spencer Turnbull and the Tigers. Turnbull is not a gas can, but he has allowed a .361 wOBA and a hard contact rate well over 40% to LHBs this year. That makes Lindor a priority play for me here, with Jakob Bauers filling a nice value need. You can also fire up the full GPP stack for plenty of upside.

Wil Myers scratched Tuesday; Nick Martini replaces

Myers has been scratched from the San Diego Padres original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup Nick Martini, who will now play left field and slot directly into Myers’ vacated second spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Padres lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Brandon Woodruff on the road this evening.

Nick Ahmed (finger) scratched Tuesday; Ildemaro Vargas replaces

Ahmed has been scratched from the Arizona Diamondbacks original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Miami Marlins due to a finger injury. He’ll be replaced in the lineup Ildemaro Vargas, who will now play shortstop and slot directly into Ahmed’s vacated seventh spot in the order. However, the remainder of the Diamondbacks lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Caleb Smith at home this evening.

Franmil Reyes (personal) scratched Tuesday; Jakob Bauers replaces

Reyes has been scratched from the Cleveland Indians original confirmed lineup and will not start in Tuesday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers as he tends to a personal matter. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Jakob Bauers, who will now handle the designated hitter duties and slot into the fifth spot in the order, which bumps Greg Allen up to sixth and slides Mike Freeman down to seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Indians lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against right-hander Zac Reininger and the Tigers bullpen at home this evening.

Caleb Smith has allowed 10.9% Barrels/BBE with decreasing strikeouts (23.4% last 30 days)

Caleb Smith has a 27.8 K% and 4.13 ERA that matches his 4.19 DRA and .316 xwOBA. All pretty decent stuff. However, an extreme fly ball pitcher (27.4%), his 10.9% Barrels/BBE can get hidden a bit in Miami, especially with all the strikeouts. Over the last month though, the strikeout rate is down to 23.4%, as Smith has allowed eight HRs over five starts. Nineteen of his 29 HRs have come on the road this season and that’s where he pitches tonight, in Arizona, against an offense with a 116 wRC+ and 18.2 HR/FB vs LHP. The Arizona lineup has already been posted and features five batters above a 125 wRC+ and .250 ISO vs LHP this year: Ketel Marte (147 wRC+, .294 ISO), Eduardo Escobar (128 wRC+, .273 ISO), Wilmer Flores (160 wRC+, .309 ISO), Nick Ahmed (143 wRC+, 256 ISO) and Carson Kelly (187 wRC+, .325 ISO). All are above a .340 xwOBA against LHP this year as well. While the Diamondbacks are implied for a healthy 5.1 runs, that’s still just a middle of the board mark tonight and bottom of the order bats here would seem a very contrarian way to go in GPPs.

Justin Verlander is the unquestioned top pitcher on the board tonight. Players who make an attempt to pay up will very likely be rewarded in his home matchup against the Rangers. However, should players be looking to save an extra $2K, Patrick Corbin may run similarly in terms of value. Corbin has struck out 28% of batters with a 3.20 ERA that’s in line with most estimators and he’s had a nice run of consistency over his last 16 starts with an ERA and FIP below three, failing to complete six innings just three times and reaching the seven inning mark six times over this span. Corbin’s lone flaw is an 89.2 mph EV and 9.3% Barrels/BBE, which the high strikeout rate helps mitigate, but he gets a significant park upgrade to a power suppressing environment in St Louis against an offense with just a 95 wRC+ vs LHP. The projected lineup for the Cardinals includes just three batters above a .325 wOBA against southpaws this year.

Ross Detwiler (.391 xwOBA) faces Twins offense with a 126 wRC+ vs LHP

It’s got to be a spirit raiser to Minnesota bats when they found out they were facing Ross Detwiler instead of Lucas Giolito today. Not only are the Twins more dangerous against LHP (split high 126 wRC+ and 21 HR/FB vs LHP). While Detwiler’s 55.4 GB% helps, but he’s still allowed 10.2% Barrels/BBE and has the highest xwOBA on the board (.391). He’s walked eight of his last 22 batters faced without a strikeout. As a result, despite the potentially pitcher friendly conditions Kevin mentioned in his early forecast, the Twins are still the only team outside Coors above six implied runs (6.47). RHBs are sitting on a .423 wOBA and .398 xwOBA against Detwiler this season. Five batters in the projected Minnesota lineup are above a 130 wRC+ and .300 ISO vs LHP this year: Mitch Garver (199 wRC+, .417 ISO), Nelson Cruz (182 wRC+, .449 ISO), Miguel Sano (138 wRC+, .309 ISO), Jonathan Schoop (147 wRC+, .307 ISO) and C.J. Cron (163 wRC+, .325 ISO). Small sample sizes for sure, as any single year sample against LHP is going to be, but these are all guys with strong career numbers against southpaws and the stats this year are so far above average that there’s certainly something there.

Vince Velasquez's tendencies towards walks (9.1%) and Barrels (10.7%), a dangerous combo in Atlanta

Vince Velasquez has an 8.59 ERA over the last month that’s two runs above his FIP and nearly four runs above his non-FIP estimators. He’s been hammered in road starts by the Mets and Marlins. The issue for Velasquez this year has been control (9.1 BB%) and hard contact. He’s one of five pitchers on the board with a double digit Barrels/BBE rate (10.7%). The Braves represent a tough matchup for him on a warm day in Atlanta with the wind lightly blowing out to center. They have a 103 wRC+ vs RHP, but their 10% walk rate is the highest split on the board. Velasquez has only faced 13 Braves this year without a walk, but they did get him for four runs back in June. With only one batter in the projected Altanta lineup below a 9% walk rate vs RHP this year, this is a really dangerous spot for Velasquez and presents a nice stacking opportunity. The Braves have a 5.79 implied run line that’s currently sixth best on the board. Batters from either side of the plate are above a .330 wOBA and xwOBA against Velasquez this year. The top half of the Atlanta lineup, likely including Ronald Acuna (120 wRC+, .221 ISO vs RHP), Ozzie Albies (98 wRC+, .178 ISO), Freddie Freeman (159 wRC+, .291 ISO) and Josh Donaldson (137 wRC+, .280 ISO) should all have some value here.

Power Hitting Offense Could Be In For Big Night Against Young Pitcher

Toronto travels to Baltimore tonight to face right-hander Chandler Shepherd, who will be making his first major league start. Shepherd had a poor season at AAA, putting up a 6.18 ERA and 1.64 WHIP, and as we know by this point in the season, the Orioles bullpen behind Shepherd is the worst in the league. Given Shepherd’s propensity to allow home runs in AAA (19 HRs allowed in 102 innings) I’ll be targeting the Blue Jays power hitters, namely Bo Bichette, Rowdy Tellez, Randal Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez.