DFS Alerts
Mitch Keller has a 28.2 K% and estimators more than four runs below his 8.29 ERA
Mitch Keller has allowed fewer than five runs in just three of his eight starts that lasted more than two innings. The results are a complete fluke though. He’s struck out 28.2% of the batters he’s faced (21.6 K-BB%) with a 3.78 SIERA that’s less than half his ERA. Every single one of his estimators more than four runs below his actual ERA (.477 BABIP, 53.5 LOB%) and if you go straight to Statcast after that, the contact management hasn’t been ideal, but an 88.5 mph aEV and 7.7% Barrels/BBE with those peripherals still work out to a .308 xwOBA, over 100 points better than his actual results. The good news, aside from the massive positive regression expected is that the strikeouts play here, maybe more than the runs hurt. He’s also in a favorable spot against the Mariners, whom he gets in Pittsburgh, which means no DH and only one batter in the projected lineup below a 20 K% vs RHP this year. Keller has only completed six innings once this season, which takes away from his FanDuel potential, but a cost of $5.8K may still make him a viable contrarian GPP play. The strikeout rate still makes him useful on DraftKings at $8.1K as well. This is a case where gap between actual results and performance is so far apart that it can’t possibly be sustained that much longer.
Projected Pittsburgh lineup has just one batter above a .150 ISO vs LHP & two above a .300 wOBA
Marco Gonzales penetrates deep into games very often, but his effectiveness is a bit of a mystery. A 4.30 ERA and 4.17 FIP are well below a SIERA and xFIP above five and especially a 6.03 DRA. His .316 xwOBA suggests contact management supporting the ERA and the park in Seattle will help his HR rate (9.3 HR/FB), but 16 of his 103 runs are unearned. A below average ground ball rate (40%) and near average 88 mph aEV does not explain 5.4% Barrels/BBE very well. The good news is that he transitions to an NL park that suppresses RH power tonight against an offense that has been terrible vs LHP this year (77 wRC+, 12 HR/FB, 16.9 K-BB%). Without Josh Bell in the projected lineup, Bryan Reynolds (.340 wOBA, .180 ISO) is the only batter a .150 ISO vs LHP and one of only two above even just a .300 wOBA. This is not a spot where players should expect strikeouts, but efficiency with a large workload should make him a reasonable low priced compliment on DraftKings ($6.3K) for those paying up for one of the higher priced arms tonight.
Entire Toronto projected lineup has a .190 or higher ISO vs RHP this year
Chandler Shepherd got in nearly 100 AAA innings between the Boston and Baltimore organizations this year. The 27 year-old has aged out of any prospect status, but did have a 16 K-BB% in 72.1 of those innings for the Orioles. He’s struck out five of the 31 major league batters he’s faced (Rangers, Yankees), walking three without a HR despite a 34.8 GB%, which is a bit lower than his minor league rates. Small sample alert, of course, but 52.2% of his contact was above a 95 mph EV and he did not miss bats in the zone at all (96.8 Z-Contact%). Only six teams exceed Toronto’s 5.46 implied run line. A look at the Toronto projected lineup via PlateIQ shows not a single batter below a .190 ISO vs RHP this year and that would be Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (122 wRC+, .190 ISO), who costs just $3.9K on DraftKings and $1K less on Fanduel. Everyone else is above .200. Bo Bichette (130 wRC+, .264 ISO) is likely the top overall bat here.
Other tagged players: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Peripherals vs Surface Numbers
Mitch Keller has made just nine career starts, so we still don’t have enough data to know which to believe between his ugly 8.29 ERA and his strong 28.2% K rate and 3.78 SIERA. He has been hit hard in half his starts with a sky high .474 BABIP. It’s possible that continues as he learns his way around the big leagues, but for a guy with his pedigree who has a 27:2 K:BB ratio in his last four starts, he is clearly underpriced for his upside. It’s risky enough that he’s not necessary in cash games, but I love him in tournaments on all sites tonight.
Under-Priced For These Skills
The Twins are behind only the Mets as the top offense on this slate, but when factoring in salaries, Minnesota may end up as the most popular team tonight. In cash games, I would not overthink this one at all, and even in tournaments, a team with this much power against a low strikeout pitcher like Ross Detwiler and a shaky bullpen, it’s a scary fade. Nelson Cruz is priced like a mid-tier OF despite a .442 ISO and a 59% hard hit rate that is the highest of any hitter in the league.
Just Play The Best
There are quite a few different ways to go tonight with ace pitching, a decent mid-tier and some cheap arms in good matchups, but it’s overthinking it not to start with Justin Verlander. He has a ridiculous 41.4% K rate since the All-Star Break and has double digit strikeouts in 9 of his last 11 starts. Matchup hardly matters for him, but he does get a strikeout boost at home against Texas, who has only two batters in the lineup with a below average strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
Power With A High Contact Rate
Arizona is one of my favorite low owned stacks on this slate. I’m a fan of Caleb Smith, but he has a .251 ISO with a 41.9% hard-hit rate and a 53.7% fly ball rate. With the roof open in Arizona, this ballpark tends to play more towards a hitter’s ballpark. A lot of the Arizona bats are cheap, which is another reason I like them. Flores has a .309 ISO with a .419 wOBA with a 91.2% contact rate against lefties on the year.
Let's See How This Works Out
If we’re looking to pay up for bats, and fit in a top end SP1, I think Perez makes some sense in this matchup against the White Sox. The White Sox have called up some players, and this team is striking out at a very high clip against left-handed pitching. On top of the strikeouts, there is a lot of groundball hitters in this lineup. The projected starting lineup has a 26.9% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. I don’t think Perez is perfect, but he’s cheap and can pay off his price in this matchup with a decent outing.
Cheap Power Upside
I really like this spot for the Twins, and it seems like they’re underpriced for this matchup. Detwiler has a .429 wOBA with a .279 ISO in 188 PAs against right-handed hitters this season. He also has a 2.92 HR/9 with a 40% hard-hit rate against righties. Cron has a .328 ISO with a .428 wOBA and a 40.4% hard-hit rate against left-handed pitching this season. I love the upside for this whole offense, but I really like the price of Cron across the industry.
This Lineup Doesn't Scare Anyone
The Pirates are dealing with injuries right now, and the projected starting lineup has a .122 ISO with a .298 wOBA against left-handed pitching this season. If Bell and Marte are both out of the lineup again, I think this is a really good spot for Gonzales. He’s projected to face seven right-handed hitters, and he has a .307 wOBA with a .157 ISO against righties on the season. I think he’s a safer option, and worth a look in all formats.
Joey Votto scratched Monday; Josh VanMeter replaces
Votto has been scratched from the Cincinnati Reds original confirmed lineup and will not start in the Monday’s matchup against the Chicago Cubs due to a presently unspecified reason. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Josh VanMeter, who will now play first base and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which shuffles quite a few players around in the Reds batting order but, most notably, bumps Phillip Ervin up to second, respectively. Therefore, be sure to double-check the Starting Lineups page for the updated lineup as Cincinnati faces off against left-hander Cole Hamels on the road this evening.
As reported by: Bobby Nightengale via Twitter Other tagged players: Josh VanMeter
Mark Trumbo (trapezius) scratched Monday; Stevie Wilkerson replaces
Trumbo has been scratched from the Baltimore Orioles original confirmed lineup and will not start in Monday’s matchup against the Detroit Tigers a left trapezius strain. He’ll be replaced in the lineup by Stevie Wilkerson, who will now play left field and slot into the eighth spot in the order, which bumps Austin Hays and Pedro Severino up to sixth and seventh, respectively. However, the remainder of the Orioles lineup will stay intact offensively as they face off against left-hander Tyler Alexander on the road this afternoon.
As reported by: Roch Kubatko via Twitter Other tagged players: Stevie Wilkerson Antonio Senzatela has the worst K-BB (2.1%) and 95+ mph EV (42.5%) on the board
Antonio Senzatela snapped a seven start streak of allowing at least five earned runs in every start, when he shut down the Cardinals (1 R – 5 Ks) over six innings at Coors last time out. He actually has the lowest rate of Barrels/BBE on the slate (5.9%) behind a 54.3 GB%. However, he also has just a 2.1 K-BB% and those are hard ground balls. His 42.5% 95+ mph EV is highest on the board and he’s one of just two pitchers on the board above a .350 xwOBA. Considering these attributes, low K-BB%, high exit velocity, lots of ground balls, Senzatela is certainly the type of you pitcher you want to stack against, rather than home run hunt. Expect a lot of traffic on the bases, while the Mets are, of course, the best projected offense on the board (7.5 implied runs) by more than a full run. The downside is that the Mets are coming off the Sunday night game in New York, though they do get a later start after flying nearly across country. Senzatela has a pretty massive platoon split too (LHBs 85 points and 54 points higher by wOBA and xwOBA), so particular attention should be paid to the LHBs of Jeff McNeil (144 wRC+, .228 ISO vs RHP), Michael Conforto (139 wRC+, .276 ISO), Robinson Cano (117 wRC+, .220) and Brandon Nimmo (75 wRC+, .106 ISO), who finally seems healthy (171 wRC+, 50 Hard% last seven days). The Mets generally like to balance their lineup though, without two same-handed batters back to back.
Other tagged players: Michael Conforto, Robinson Cano, Brandon Nimmo, Antonio Senzatela Stephen Strasburg leads the slate in SIERA (3.49), DRA (2.15) and xwOBA (.261) by wide margins
Stephen Strasburg is second on the board with a 29.7 K%, exactly seven points above the next highest strikeout rate (Jose Berrios 22.7%) and with a walk rate 4.5 points below the only strikeout rate higher than his (Robbie Ray 30.9%). Over the last month, Strasburg has struck out 35.8% over batters with no other pitcher on the board reaching 30%. His 3.49 SIERA is best on the board by more than half a run, his 2.15 DRA is the only mark on the slate lower than four and his .261 xwOBA is the only mark below .300 tonight. It goes without saying that Strasburg is the top pitcher on the board tonight and we haven’t even mentioned the matchup yet, but not only does he get a park upgrade in St Louis, but the Cardinals have been a below average offense vs RHP this year (93 wRC+, 22.6 K%). Nobody in tonight’s lineup for St Louis is above a 120 wRC+ vs RHP this year and only two are above a .200 ISO. Despite a potentially hitter friendly umpire (Umpire Ratings are available to premium subscribers), this is a favorable spot for Strasburg, enhancing his outlook as tonight’s top pitcher. Of course, he’s the most expensive pitcher on the board, more than $1K higher than any other pitcher on either site, but it’s difficult to find a pitcher you’d safely call a better value either with Strasburg so far ahead in every major category.
Jose Berrios has struck out 21 of 86 White Sox (19.7 K-BB% vs RHP)
Jose Berrios has an above average 16.7 K-BB%, but the majority of his success has been predicated on an 86.6 mph aEV that’s best on the board tonight. His 6.4% Barrels/BBE is third best. While his non-FIP estimators are more than half a run above his 3.63 ERA due to a 12.1 HR/FB and 12 of his 85 runs being unearned, he just snapped a streak of six straight starts with at least three ERs allowed when he shut out the Nationals for seven innings with four strikeouts last time out. He’s faced the White Sox three times over his last eight starts with four of the 12 runs he’s allowed against them unearned over 20.1 innings with three HRs. The good news is that he’s struck out 21 of the 86 White Sox he’s faced. It’s certainly a high upside matchup with the White Sox owning an 84 wRC+ and 19.7 K-BB% vs RHP this year. Berrios has more value on FanDuel, where he costs a reasonable $8.5K, as opposed to $10.2K on DraftKings.