DFS Alerts
Cheap With Upside
Dylan Cease owns the slate’s sixth highest strikeout rate this season (24.2%) but is priced as SP12 on DraftKings and SP20 on FanDuel. On top of Cease’s ability to miss bats at an above league average rate, he gets an excellent road matchup against the hapless Detroit Tigers. Detroit ranks dead last in wRC+ (75) against RHP this season and own the league’s highest strikeout rate (26.5%).
Rays might go overlooked in a nice spot vs. Porcello
Porcello has been consistently bad this year, posting a 5.77 ERA, 5.33 xFIP and 5.01 SIERA with a 1.44 WHIP, 11.6% K-BB and 7.8% SwStr. Porcello does limit his walks (6.2% BB rate) but gives up tons of home runs (1.72 HR/9) and gets barreled up pretty often (9.9% barrel rate). Porcello has also allowed a 1.65 WHIP and 2.35 HR/9 over the past month. The Rays have seen Porcello pretty well this year (.360 xwOBA against in 77 plate appearances) and look to be in a potentially underrated spot at home tonight. Austin Meadows (.387 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Ji-Man Choi (.365), Tommy Pham (.357), Avisail Garcia (.339), Willy Adames (.332), Eric Sogard (.327) and Joey Wendle (.295) are options in the Rays’ projected order. Meadows has been the Ray’s hottest hitter over the past 2 weeks with a .441 xwOBA, followed by J-Man Choi with a .427 mark. On Draftkings, Meadows ($5.5k) and Pham ($4.7k) are pretty expensive, but there are some nice values to be had in this order: Joey Wendle (projected to leadoff, $3.3k), Choi (projected 4th, $4.1k), Sogard (6th, $3.8k) and Adames (7th, $3.6k). Their pricing is very similar on Fanduel as well. The Rays currently have a 4.89 implied line, and could be something of a contrarian option in GPPs with all of the attractive stack options on this slate.
Other tagged players: Austin Meadows, Ji-Man Choi, Joey Wendle, Avisail Garcia, Willy Adames
Peter Lambert has an 8.41 ERA and -2.9% K-BB over the past 30 days
Even for pitching half his games in Coors, Lambert’s numbers are just terrible. On the year, Lambert has put up a 6.98 ERA / 5.23 xFIP / 5.53 SIERA with a 4.7% K-BB, 1.71 WHIP, 38.7% hard contact rate and 7% SwStr. He’s also allowed a .361 xwOBA and 88.7 MPH aEV. He’s been even worse over the past 30 days despite 3 of 5 starts coming away from Coors: 8.41 ERA, 6.39 SIERA, -2.9% K-BB, 2.21 WHIP and .429 xwOBA allowed. Even being at home in pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium tonight, the Dodgers are in one of the best spots on the slate. Cody Bellinger (.435 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Max Muncy (.384), Justin Turner (.363), Gavin Lux (.353), Joc Pederson (.350), Matt Beaty (.346), Will Smith (.328), Corey Seager (.327) and AJ Pollock (.326) are all good options tonight in the LAD projected order. Pollock hasn’t been all that great this year, but has really heated up with a .459 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. Gavin Lux has also seen the ball well with a .395 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks. With the exception of Cody Bellinger ($5.5k) Dodgers’ bats are pretty affordable as they are all available for $4.5k or less on Draftkings. Joc Pederson is projected to leadoff at just $4.2k, Beaty is projected to hit 3rd at $4k, and Lux will bat lower in the order at just $3.7k. They currently have a solid 5.90 implied line vs. Lambert and the Rox.
Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Max Muncy, Matthew Beaty, Joc Pederson, A.J. Pollock, Gavin Lux DeGrom looks to be worth paying up for tonight vs. Reds
It’s been another great year for DeGrom, who has so far posted a 2.61 ERA / 3.17 xFIP / 3.33 SIERA with a 31.6% K rate, 5.7% BB rate, 1.01 WHIP and career best 15.5% SwStr. He’s been even more dominant over the past 30 days with a 2.57 ERA, 2.78 SIERA, 34.1% K rate, 3.8% BB rate and 0.80 WHIP. Tonight, DeGrom is in Cincy to face a Reds team that has just a 78 wRC+ and 25.7% K rate over the past 30 days. The Reds’ projected lineup has just 2 batters above a .330 xwOBA vs. RHP on the year, and DeGrom projects to have the platoon advantage against 5 out of 9 of them. DeGrom will cost $11k+ on both major sites but you can make a very good argument that he is the ace to pay up for on this slate if forced to choose just one. He’s gone at least 7 innings in 9 of his last 10 starts, never allowing more than 4 runs in any of them and only allowing more than 1 run in three of them. He offers an ultra-safe floor in cash games and is obviously in play in GPPS as well. The Reds currently have just a 3.49 implied total vs. DeGrom and the Mets.
Fiers is a nice value arm vs. Rangers
This is the 2nd straight year that Fiers has outpitched his peripherals, as he currently has a 4.09 ERA / 5.28 xFIP / 5.24 SIERA in 171 and 2/3 innings after posting a 3.56 ERA / 4.51 xFIP / 4.25 SIERA over 172 innings in 2018. Fiers’ Statcast numbers are a bit better than what his peripherals show, as he’s posted a slightly below average .337 xwOBA allowed this year, and a .336 xwOBA allowed in 2018. Fiers gets a matchup tonight with a Rangers team that has a league-worst 69 wRC+ and 25.8% K rate over the past 30 days, and an 89 wRC+ with a 25.6% K rate vs. RHP on the year. Fiers doesn’t have much of upside at least in terms of strikeouts (16.5% K rate this year) but he should be able to eat innings here as the Rangers currently have just a 3.73 implied total. Best of all, he is a dirt cheap $5.7k on Draftkings and makes for an intriguing SP2, and is also affordable on Fanduel at $6.8k. He projects are one of the better PTS/$ arms on both sites.
Mike Clevinger has struck out 22 of 51 Tigers faced this year
Mike Clevinger is your clear cut top pitcher on the Thursday evening slate. He has the top strikeout rate on the board by more than five full points (35.3%), the top SIERA (3.23) by more than half a run, and the top xwOBA (.260) by more than 20 points. Jack Flaherty is second in all of those categories and has been on fire himself (34.9 K%, 1.32 ERA, 2.10 FIP, .239 xwOBA last 30 days), but has a much tougher matchup at Wrigley. Other mid-range pitching options include the inconsistent Kyle Gibson against the Royals and Kyle Hendricks with much lower upside against the Cardinals. Meanwhile, Clevinger has recorded seventh inning outs in four straight starts and eight of his last 11, while allowing more than two runs just twice since the start of June. He’s also facing the Tigers, a team with a 75 wRC+ and 19.9 K-BB% vs RHP. They do not have a single batter in tonight’s lineup above a .326 wOBA or .177 ISO vs RHP this year. Clevinger has faced Detroit twice this year and it’s gone just about as expected: 14 IP – 1 ER – 1 BB – 22 K – 51 BF.
Toronto lineup includes seven batters above a .200 ISO vs RHP
Gabriel Ynoa carries the lowest strikeout rate (13.9%) and highest rate of Barrels/BBE (9.7%) on the board tonight into his start against the Blue Jays. He’s allowed 25 HRs in just 100.1 IP, while batters from either side of the plate exceed a .350 wOBA and xwOBA and .200 ISO. The Blue Jays have an implied run line of 5.51 that’s either third or fourth highest on the board depending on whether or not the Yankees are included. Each of the first eight batters in the Toronto lineup exceed a .180 ISO vs RHP this year. In fact, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (123 wRC+, .184 ISO) is the only one below a .200 ISO. Bo Bichette (129 wRC+, .250 ISO) and Cavan Biggio (118 wRC+, .228 ISO). Reese McGuire (179 wRC+, .295 ISO) is an affordable catcher further down the lineup.
Other tagged players: Cavan Biggio, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Gabriel Ynoa So Much Power
The Twins had a disappointing Wednesday night, but this is a team with so much power, we need to have a short memory. Tonight they face a low strikeout lefty in Mike Montgomery, and while he does have some ground ball ability, there is just too much fly ball power in this lineup for him to handle. Nelson Cruz has an outlandish .434 ISO on 58% hard hits against lefties and a 46% fly ball rate to get past the ground balls of Montgomery. Cruz keeps his immense power if the Royals go to righties in the bullpen with a .278 ISO and 50% HH against RHP.
Skills Are Close, Matchup Is Not
We’ve got a couple ace pitchers on the mound tonight with Mike Clevinger and Jack Flaherty, but with skill sets and salaries in the same general area, this ideal matchup for Clevinger makes him the clear choice in all formats tonight. Clevinger’s 35.3% strikeout rate this season is the 3rd highest mark in the league, trailing only Cole and Sale, and he piles up innings as regularly as anyone. He faces a Tigers team whose active roster has the highest strikeout rate in the league against right-handed pitching while ranking 29th in ISO and 30th in wOBA. Fire him up in all formats on all sites.
Intriguing GPP One-Off Play
I am certainly not stacking the Cardinals tonight, but I like Fowler as a one-off play. He has been playing with a ton of confidence ever since he got moved into the leadoff role. He made a great leaping catch over the wall yesterday and has all sorts of motivation to beat his former team. The Cardinals are 0-6 at Wrigley Field this year, and certainly my fandom hopes they head into Chicago with some gusto tonight. Give Fowler a look as an affordable one-off outfield play against Hendricks.
Elite Team Stack
The Twins are attempting to fight off the Indians in the AL Central race, and I like their prospects tonight against a weak LHP in Mike Montgomery. Nelson Cruz has always been an elite option against lefties, and he’s my favorite bat on the slate given his .438 wOBA against lefties to go along with a whopping .434 ISO and 1.128 OPS. Mitch Garver fills a catcher need on DK and is too cheap on FD, while C.J. Cron also has power potential against lefties. This trio makes for a nice GPP stack on a short slate.
Other tagged players: Mitch Garver, C.J. Cron The Dominant Top Arm
When you combine a short slate, weak overall pitching, an ace pitcher on a team that needs a win, and a matchup of a RHP against the Tigers, you get one of the most obvious pitching choices we have had all season. That’s not hyperbole, either. I love Jack Flaherty as much as anyone, but I can’t pass on Clevinger tonight. With his xFIP sitting at 2.99 and his strikeout rate hovering around 35-36% this year, I don’t see a way the Tigers do much damage against him. Clevinger is a massive home favorite in this game, and even the GPP pivot to Flaherty feels too cute to me on this slate. Play Clevinger and build from there.
Twins are one of the few offenses in a favorable spot tonight
The White Sox will be looking to patch it together against the Twins tonight after Dylan Covey was scratched, but no matter who they drag out of the bullpen, the Minnesota offense should be well equipped to handle them. Considering weather conditions around the league tonight, Minnesota may be one of the few above average offenses hitting in a truly positive run environment tonight. As such, they’re slightly above the Astros (6.68 to 6.6) as the only two teams above six implied runs tonight. The first five in tonight’s projected lineup (Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Nelson Cruz, Eddie Rosario, and Miguel Sano) all are above a .325 wOBA vs RHP and only Luis Arraez (.397 wOBA, .131 ISO) is below a .200 ISO. Minnesota bats are not cheap (though Arraez makes them more affordable), but they’re one of the more trustable offenses in a favorable spot tonight.
Other tagged players: Eddie Rosario, Luis Arraez, Jorge Polanco, Miguel Sano Spencer Turnbull and Gerrit Cole cost a combined $17.3K on DraftKings
Cleveland is far from a negative run environment and it would probably take an optimistic point of view to call Spencer Turnbull an average pitcher (11.9 K-BB%, 4.77 ERA, 4.81 SIERA, 5.38 DRA, .334 xwOBA). In fact, he’s allowed at least four runs in five straight starts, a period over which he has a 10.71 ERA. However, he has a 12.1 SwStr% over this stretch of starts which includes the Astros, Indians, Twins, Athletics, and Yankees, basically the AL post-season lineup. Tonight, he’ll face a Cleveland lineup lacking Jose Ramirez, Jason Kipnis, and Franmil Reyes. It’s still a fairly respectable top half, but it gets ugly pretty quickly after Yasiel Puig in the cleanup spot. The thing that really sticks out here though is that Turnbull is the lowest priced pitcher on DraftKings who is not serving as an opener tonight. At $4.5K, Turnbull can get you Gerrit Cole for a combined sum of $17.3K and Cole (51.6 K% last 30 days) is the top overall pitcher on the slate for his matchup with the Rangers at home by a pretty massive margin.
Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole Dylan Bundy has the third lowest 95+ mph EV on the board (31%)
Dylan Bundy has the third lowest rate of contact above a 95 mph exit velocity on the board tonight (31%). He’s still allowed 28 HRs, 16 of them at home. However, conditions at Camden tonight may be less power friendly according to Kevin’s earlier forecast, which could put him in a less disadvantageous spot. The projected Toronto lineup does not include a single batter below a .180 wRC+ vs RHP this year. That’s certainly still a concern, but it also includes only five batters above a .300 wOBA vs RHP and six above a 22.5 K%. There’s upside in this lineup for Bundy (22.8 K%), who’s .309 xwOBA is 29 points below actual results. Bundy has also had some success against this lineup. In two starts, he’s allowed three runs over 12 innings with 13 strikeouts (46 batters faced). Bundy costs less than $8K on either site.