DFS Alerts
Catch An Edge
The Brewers may not get quite as much press as the Red Sox tonight, but this is a great matchup for a powerful lineup against a low strikeout pitcher in Dario Agrazal. Agrazal has struck out just 15.2% of lefties and 7.9% of righties while allowing 52% fly balls and 38% hard hits to LHB. The Pirates bullpen has also been bad, and outside of Christian Yelich, this Brewers team is affordable on most sites tonight. Yasmani Grandal is a standout at the catcher position on DK and Yahoo, and playable on FD and Yahoo as well with his .227 ISO on 45% hard hits as well as keeping the platoon advantage if they see lefties out of the bullpen.
Mike Montgomery has allowed 10 ERs in 11.1 IP since being traded
Mike Montgomery has allowed 10 ERs in 11.1 innings over three starts for the Royals. In other words, he’s been just as bad for them as he’d been for the Cubs. Even after just 38.1 innings pitched this season, his numbers are absurdly poor, including a 13.2 K%, 25.8 HR/FB, 8.50 DRA, 33.1 LD%, 93.4 Z-Contact%, .411 xwOBA, 90.6 mph aEV and 48.1% 95+ mph EV. While the Red Sox own just a 99 wRC+ vs LHP this season, that comes with a 21.1 K%, 17.3 HR/FB and board high seven implied runs. Considering that only a hobbled Yankee offense additionally reaches above 5.7 and the Red Sox should be well represented in lineups tonight and staples of any cash game lineup. Considering batters from either side of the plate exceed a .340 wOBA and xwOBA against Montgomery over the last calendar year, there’s not a bad looking bat in this projected lineup. J.D. Martinez (231 wRC+, .463 ISO, .481 xwOBA vs LHP last calendar year) has to be the top batter on the board tonight and probably still a pretty strong value above $5K on DraftKings/$4K on FanDuel. His 215 wRC+ and 46.7 Hard% over the last seven days are both tops among tonight’s projected starters and he has a .320 ISO at home since the start of last season.
Other tagged players: Mike Montgomery
Cheap Across The Industry
Aaron Civale has a tougher matchup but has shown the ability to have strikeout upside. He had a 26.1% strikeout rate with a 13.1% swinging strike rate in AAA this season. He had a high contact rate in his first career start, but still finished the game with a 26% strikeout rate. Civale is cheap across the industry, and this Texas lineup has five guys with strikeout rates over 20%.
Team Context Plus Salary
Sam Travis is nowhere near the top of the list of Red Sox bats tonight, but his salary is so far down that he allows you easy access to the best offense of the night in any format on any site. We haven’t seen enough from Travis to know where he’s going to land, but being in the middle of this lineup surrounded by runners on base all around gives him underpriced upside. In his limited sample size against lefties this season he has a solid 40% hard hit rate and his solid plate skills and .362 OBP from Triple-A should carry over while he’s facing a Royals staff that is essentially Triple-A level.
Cheap With Strikeout Upside
If we’re looking for some cheap upside, Spencer Turnbull against the White Sox fits the bill. This projected starting lineup has a 26% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and all but one hitter has a strikeout rate over 20%. They also have five right-handed hitters, and Turnbull has been really good against righties. He only has a 15.8% strikeout rate against lefties, but Chicago just don’t have any left-handed hitters to fear in this lineup.
Two Choices Up Top
There is a decent mid-tier of pitching tonight, but there are two arms with high strikeout upside in better matchups up top that I will prioritize, especially in cash games. It is not an easy choice between Charlie Morton and Lucas Giolito, with Morton being the more consistent pitcher and Giolito have the ideal matchup against the Tigers. Because of how dominant Morton has been at home this season, I’ll side his way, but I love them both. Morton has a huge 35.5% K rate in his friendly home confines this season and the ballpark helps to mute out some of Toronto’s power risk while he can capitalize on their high strikeout bats at the bottom of the lineup.
This Salary Is Silly
Brandon Belt has not done much recently, and even a trip to Coors Field resulted in relative disappointment. It is never exciting to play batters in San Francisco, but this salary has gotten completely goofy for a guy with the skills of Belt. Even when things aren’t going great for him, he has excellent plate skill to fall back on giving him on base and run scoring upside. Tonight he faces one of the lowest strikeout pitchers in the league in Erick Fedde, whose only asset is ground balls. Belt is a heavy fly ball hitter to overcome that and he’s just simply too cheap.
If You Can Spend For One
There are a lot of good values sprinkled around this slate on every site. Even if paying up for a pitcher, you should be able to fit in at least one high end bat. The first place to look is Boston, where the Red Sox face the low strikeout Mike Montgomery. His moderate ground ball ability is the only skill here, and with his 51% fly balls and elite contact, Mookie Betts stands out here. All three of Betts, J.D. Martinez and Xander Bogaerts are top options in all formats.
With Odorizzi scratched, there is value and upside in Royals’ lineup vs. Smeltzer
Jake Odorizzi has been scratched and replaced with lefty Devin Smeltzer, creating some intriguing plays in the Royals’ lineup this afternoon. Smelter isn’t a terrible pitcher; he had 3.45 ERA / 4.87 xFIP in AAA this year and projects as a roughly 4.5 ERA guy by most projection systems in the Majors. Royals bats are priced down a bit here and they have some solid pop vs. LHP: Hunter Dozier (.415 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Cheslor Cuthbert (.364), Jorge Soler (.355), Whit Merrifield (.350), Lucas Duda (.314) and Alex Gordon (.312) are all solid options this afternoon. Royals’ right-handed bats are especially intriguing given the platoon advantage and massive park upgrade as Target Field is much friendlier to RHB than Kauffman. Jorge Soler has been on fire with a .478 xwOBA over the past 14 days and is just $4.1k on Draftkings. Cuthbert ($3.7k) and Gordon ($4k) are nice values on Draftkings as well, and you won’t have to break the bank for Merrifield ($4.5k) or Dozier ($4.4k) either. On Fanduel, Royals bats are affordable as well; all their hitters can be had for $3.6k or less. Royals hitters with also have the benefit of a hitter-friendly umpire in Jansen Visconti.
Other tagged players: Jorge Soler, Cheslor Cuthbert, Lucas Duda, Alex Gordon, Whit Merrifield
Astros currently have highest implied total on the main slate vs. PLR Milone
The Astros will face an opener (Sam Tuivailala) and then project to face Tommy Milone in long relief. Milone actually has a decent K-BB (17.8%) but gets hit hard when the ball is put in play, as he has an ugly 11.6% barrel rate and .393 xwOBA on contact. Milone is worse vs. righties with a .359 xwOBA allowed vs. RHB since 2017 compared to a .322 mark vs. LHB. The Astros come into this game with a ridiculous 138 wRC+ over the past 30 days that leads the league by far. They have a projected lineup full of great options this afternoon: Jose Altuve (.486 xwOBA vs. LHP this year), Carlos Correa (.448), George Springer (.430), Yordan Alvarez (.425), Alex Bregman (.368), Josh Reddick (.333), Yuli Gurriel (.320) and Michael Brantley (.306) are all in play. Altuve has been their hottest bat with a .444 xwOBA over the past 14 days, followed by Springer (.403) and Alvarez (.398). Astros bats are expensive across the industry, but no lineup has more upside this afternoon. They currently have a 6.37 implied line vs. the Mariners this afternoon.
Other tagged players: Michael Brantley, George Springer, Yulieski Gurriel, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jose Altuve Reds bats could be overlooked vs. Teheran
For the second straight year, Julio Teheran is posting an ERA than is much better than his estimators. This year, there’s an even larger gap between his ERA (3.38) and his estimators (5.16 xFIP, 5.03 SIERA). Statcast does have him at a middling .322 xwOBA allowed on the year, so it’s possible his true talent falls somewhere between his ERA and estimators. Teheran is much more vulnerable vs. LHP; since 2017, Teheran has allowed a .349 xwOBA to lefties compared to just a .300 xwOBA to righties. The Reds have 5 left-handed bats in their lineup this afternoon that are all in play: Derek Dietrich (.374 xwOBA vs. RHP this year), Josh VanMeter (.367), Jesse Winker (.359), Joey Votto (.335) and Tucker Barnhart (.274). VanMeter has swung a hot bat of late with a .407 xwOBA over the past 14 days. Eugenio Suarez has also swung it well with a .375 xwOBA over the past 14 days and in play despite not having the platoon advantage vs. Teheran. Winker, VanMeter and Dietrich are all $4k or less on Draftkings this afternoon. Barnhart is just $2.8k and not a bad option at a shallow catcher position. The Reds currently have a 4.41 implied line vs. Teheran and the Braves.
Other tagged players: Josh VanMeter, Tucker Barnhart, Eugenio Suarez, Joey Votto, Derek Dietrich Verlander is worth paying up for vs. Mariners
On the main slate, there are 4 starters on Dratkings whose price is above $10k, and from my view it looks like Verlander is the best play if you have to choose just one of them. Verlander is in the midst of another great year with a 2.73 ERA, 3.42 xFIP and 3.14 SIERA with a 0.81 WHIP, 28.4% K-BB and career best 15.8% SwStr. Verlander does have career worsts in HR/9 (1.66) and hard contact rate (41.5%), but has continued to be one of the best pitchers in the game regardless. Verlander gets a matchup with the Mariners this afternoon, who have just a 93 wRC+ and 26% K rate over the past 30 days. The Mariners have just four hitters in their lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .315 vs. RHP on the year. Verlander will also have the benefit of an extremely pitcher-friendly umpire calling balls and strikes with Nick Mahrley behind the plate. Verlander is also a better pitcher at home; since joining the Astros in 2017, Verlander has posted a .238 xwOBA allowed with a 2.93 xFIP and 32.2% K-BB compared to a .256 xwOBA allowed, 3.42 xFIP and 27.3% K-BB in road starts. The Mariners have a 2.63 implied total, which is by far the lowest of any team today.
Cheapest Stack of The Day
The Rays are one of the highest strikeout teams vs. lefties and Caleb Smith holds a 32.4% K rate in that split. That could easily make the case for paying up for Smith at SP today, but he has 53% fly balls and 43% hard hits in that very split as well. Tampa is a spacious ballpark that works in Smith’s favor, but I can’t ignore how dirt cheap the Rays are today, still with a 4.6 implied run total favored at home. You could 5-man stack this team on DraftKings for as little as $15.7k, and even if you fit d’Arnaud and/or Pham in the stack, it’s still only around $17.5k. This lineup construction will allow you to pair expensive SPs and/or multiple expensive one-off bats alongside a ~2% owned stack and would strictly be a large-field GPP play.
Other tagged players: Matt Duffy, Mike Zunino, Mike Brosseau, Avisail Garcia
Punt Bat In Middle of the Order
I don’t want to pick on Caleb Smith, who I consider one of the top pitchers on the board today, but the cheap price tag and prime lineup spot for Jesus Aguilar really stands out. There’s definite risk here as Aguilar could turn into Ji-Man Choi later in the game if the Rays need a left-handed bat. There’s also the fact Aguilar hasn’t been great this season, owning just a woeful .623 OPS against lefties (he had a .929 OPS last season against lefties). His salary and power upside makes him cheap enough where I am fine with the risk, especially if he allows you to jam in some good bats elsewhere.
Drew Smyly has a 0.69 ERA, 1.91 FIP and 21.7% K-BB since joining the Phillies
It’s obviously a small sample, but Drew Smyly has suddenly been an effective pitcher with the Phillies over 13 innings after being absolutely terrible for the majority of the year. Smyly’s posted a 0.69 ERA and 21.7% K-BB over his 13 innings with his new team; he also has just a .246 xwOBA and 85.2 MPH aEV in those 2 starts. Looking at Smyly’s profile, he’s thrown his four-seamer much less (50% -> 37%), slightly increased his curveball usage (28% -> 33%), and more than doubled his cutter usage (14% -> 30%) while completely scrapping his changeup in his 13 innings since joining the Phillies. Smyly gets a matchup this afternoon with the White Sox, who have been abysmal of late with a 60 wRC+ and 28% K rate over the past 30 days. The White Sox have just two batters in their lineup who have an xwOBA greater than .280 over the past 30 days. Smyly’s price is a bargain across the industry; he’ll cost just $6600 on Draftkings and $7300 on Fanduel. The White Sox have just a 4.19 implied line vs. Smyly and the Phillies.